On the momentum of population growth

If age-specific birth rates drop immediately to the level of bare replacement the ultimate stationary number of a population will be given by (9): $$\left( {{\textstyle{{b\mathop e\limits^ \bullet {}_0} \over {r\mu }}}} \right)\left( {\frac{{R_0 - 1}}{{R_0 }}} \right)$$ multiplied by the present number, where b is the birth rate, r the rate of increase, \(\mathop e\limits^ \bullet _0 \) the expectation of life, and R ₀ the Net Reproduction Rate, all before the drop in fertility, and μ the mean age of childbearing afterwards. This expression is derived in the first place for females on the stable assumption; extension to both sexes is provided, and comparison with real populations shows the numerical error to be small where fertility has not yet started to drop. The result (9) tells how the lower limit of the ultimate population depends on parameters of the existing population, and for values typical of underdeveloped countries works out to about 1. 6. If a delay of 15 years occurs before the drop of the birth rate to replacement the population will multiply by over 2. 5 before attaining stationarity. The ultimate population actually reached will be higher insofar as death rates continue to improve. If stability cannot be assumed the ultimate stationary population is provided by the more general expression (7), which is still easier to calculate than a detailed projection.     

Influence of instantaneous fertility decline to replacement level on population growth: An alternative model

If age-specific birth rates m, of a stable population drop abruptly tom _x/R ₀, whereR ₀ is the net reproduction rate, then, according to Keyfitz, the size of the ultimate stationary population relative to.that at the beginning of the process is given byI =be ⁰ ₀ R ₀ ? 1)/(rμR ₀, whereb andr are the birth rate and the rate of growth, respectively, of the stable population,e ₀ ⁰ the life expectancy at birth, andμ the average age at childbirth in the resulting stationary population. Noting that the decline inm _x need not necessarily be uniform, investigation has been carried out to examine the effect on Iwhen fertility decline is more rapid at higher ages. In particular, the effect of the reduced age-specific rates such asm _xe^? rx (which also produces a stationary population) has been analyzed, and simplifications of the results carried out separately for three different models of the net maternity function. It has also been shown that when m, drops abruptly to somem _x ^*, where the form ofm _x ^* need not be specified except for the restriction that the resulting population will be stationary, the value of the index can be approximately obtained fromI ^* =be ₀ ⁰ (1 -rμ/2), whereμ is the average age at childbearing of the initial stable population.     

Social components of metropolitan population densities

The decline of population density from the center of metropolitan areas can be expressed mathematically as: d _r = d _o e ^gr where d _r is the population density of a subarea at distance r from the center, d _o is the hypothetical density at the center, and g is the population-density gradient, empirically always negative. Expanding this exponential model permits examining systematically the relationship between distance from center and various components of population density—housing-unit density, vacant units, household size, and group-quarters population-and the change over time in these components. For the metropolitan areas of Columbus, Dayton, Hartford, Miami, and Syracuse in 1950 and 1960, housing-unit density decreased from the center more sharply than population density. Vacancies, which increased slightly at the center, were proportionately low in the stable middle zones but somewhat higher in the rapidly growing outer zones. While household size decreased around the center between 1950 and 1960, on the periphery it remained constant or increased slightly because of increased family size. During the same decade, the group-quarters population, relative to total population, shifted outward from the center to the periphery to a small extent.     

Local Settlement or Global Metropolis? Imagining Québec as a Glocal City on the 400th Anniversary of its Founding

Abstract

Situated within the Critical Discourse Analysis paradigm, this transdisciplinary study looks at the two official websites promoting the 400th founding anniversary of Québec City in 2008, in order to uncover how the Société du 400^e de Québec and the Canadian government represent Québec’s identity and how they respectively relate it to a regional and a federal entity. Focusing on the semiotic strategies that both protagonists propose in order to construct Québec’s identity, it is demonstrated that different conceptions of region, nation, and State – which have given rise to many a predicament throughout Canada’s history – are at the heart of these diverging local and global constructions of one single city. Whilst the Société du 400^e attributes a crucial historical role to the city when it describes Québec as ‘the cradle of French civilisation in the Americas’, the federal government simply salutes its status as the ‘oldest of Canadian cities’. Drawing on social theories (Smith, 1991 Smith, A. 1991. National identity, Reno: University of Nevada Press.  [Google Scholar]; Anderson, 2006 Anderson, B. 2006. Imagined Communities. Reflections on the Origin and Spread of Nationalism, 2nd revised ed., New York: Verso.  [Google Scholar]) and sociohistoric context, the analysis which follows seeks to contribute from a linguistic point of view to the grand debate on identity that persists throughout Canada.     

Analysis of changes of insect-plant ratio-improvement of key-factor analysis for evaluating bottom-up effects in insect population dynamics

A revised key-factor analysis was presented for analyzing the temporal changes in the ratio of insect absolute number to plant resource. Ten data sets for 5 insect species were then analyzed. In this key-factor analysis, the key factor is defined as the factor contributing highly to between-year variation inR _r , the log rate of the inter-year change of the insect-plant ratio. The yearly change of plant resource was handled as a separate factor, expressed byr _pl , log ratio of plant resource in yearn to plant resource in yearn+1. The following was revealed: 1) In 7 of the 10 data sets examined,r _pl influenced variations ofR _r ; in particular in 3 casesr _pl was the main key factor. 2) Generation-to-generation fluctuations of absolute insect densities showed density dependence in 4 cases, while those of insect-plant ratios, in 8 cases. 3) The Royama model or a linear model, explained well the relationship between log insect-plant ratio (X _r ) andR _r and the relationship betweenX _r and log yearly change rate of absolute insect density (R _abs ). However, in the 7 cases in whichr _pl was a critical factor for variations ofR _r , with, increase ofX _r ,R _r showed a steeper, decrease around the equilibrium point (the point for whichR _r is 0) thanR _abs . This occurred becauser _pl tended to be negatively correlated withX _r . Consequently, in two casesX _r fluctuated cyclicly or chaotically although without the changes in plant resource, fluctuations ofX _r would be damped oscillations approaching equilibrium.     

Choices Which Change Life Satisfaction: Similar Results for Australia, Britain and Germany

Using data from national socio-economic panel surveys in Australia, Britain and Germany, this paper analyzes the effects of individual preferences and choices on subjective well-being (SWB). It is shown that, in all three countries, preferences and choices relating to life goals/values, partner’s personality, hours of work, social participation and healthy lifestyle have substantial and similar effects on life satisfaction. The results have negative implications for a widely accepted theory of SWB, set-point theory. This theory holds that adult SWB is stable in the medium and long term, although temporary fluctuations occur due to life events. Set-point theory has come under increasing criticism in recent years, primarily due to unmistakable evidence in the German Socio-Economic Panel that, during the last 25 years, over a third of the population has recorded substantial and apparently permanent changes in life satisfaction (Fujita and Diener in J Pers Soc Psychol 88:158–64, 2005; Headey in Soc Indic Res 85:389–403, 2008a; Headey et al. in Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107(42):17922–17926, 2010). It is becoming clear that the main challenge now for SWB researchers is to develop new explanations which can account for medium and long term change, and not merely stability in SWB. Set-point theory is limited precisely because it is purely a theory of stability. The paper is based on specially constructed panel survey files in which data are divided into multi-year periods in order to facilitate analysis of medium and long term change.     

Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries

We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for producing probabilistic forecasts of male period life expectancy at birth for all the countries of the world to 2100. Such forecasts would be an input to the production of probabilistic population projections for all countries, which is currently being considered by the United Nations. To evaluate the method, we conducted an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment, fitting the model to the data from 1950–1995 and using the estimated model to forecast for the subsequent 10 years. The 10-year predictions had a mean absolute error of about 1 year, about 40 % less than the current UN methodology. The probabilistic forecasts were calibrated in the sense that, for example, the 80 % prediction intervals contained the truth about 80 % of the time. We illustrate our method with results from Madagascar (a typical country with steadily improving life expectancy), Latvia (a country that has had a mortality crisis), and Japan (a leading country). We also show aggregated results for South Asia, a region with eight countries. Free, publicly available R software packages called bayesLife and bayesDem are available to implement the method.     

Yearly variation in recruitment and its effect on population dynamics inYoldia notabilis (Mollusca: Bivalvia), analyzed using projection matrix model

Summary Long-term variation in recruitment was estimated by constructing projection matrices for a marine bivalve,Yoldia notabilis, at two stations in Otsuchi Bay, northeastern Japan, and the effects of its variation on population dynamics were examined using a simple matrix model. The matrix model was developed from the Leslie matrix, in which the population growth rate λ was expressed as a function of recruitment rater ₀. The equilibrium recruitment rater _s, or the recruitment rate required to maintain population at constant size (λ=1), was expressed by the reciprocal of the reproductive value of a newly recruited individual. The estimates ofr _s for the field population were lower at the shallower station than at the deeper station, reflecting higher survivorship and fecundity. Past recruitment rate estimated both by the field samplings for 3 years and by the back-calculation from the current age structure for over 10 years showed large yearly variation, ranging between 0 and 58.6×10⁻⁴. The estimates were larger thanr _s, and hence, large enough to increase population size (λ>1) only in approximately one-third of the estimated years. This suggests that the population has been maintained by occasional successful recruitment occurring once every few years.     

Studies on the spatial distribution pattern of larvae of the mosquito,Anopheles sinensis, in rice fields

Summary The spatial distribution patterns of the population ofAnopheles sinensis larvae were studied in the rice field area in the suburb of Urawa city in Japan, during the summer seasons in 1973 and 1974. The distribution pattern of the larval population within the field, analysed by the m−m regression method, indicated that the basic component of larval distribution was not a group of individuals but a single individual and such components were distributed contagiously over the field. This basic pattern did not change significantly according to developmental stage, census date or field. Therefore, we could describe the distribution pattern of the population in a rice field by the single linear regression, x=0.021+1.339x(r²−0.912). Also, the relation for the whole population in the field area including the five fields could be shown by the linear regression, x=0.049+1.749x(r²−0.959). The value of α remained to be nearly equal to zero, but the value of β became larger than the value for the single-field relation. Such a change in distribution pattern seemed to reflect the greater heterogeneity in conditions among the fields than within individual field. Using the information on the distribution patterns mentioned above, some considerations were given on the sampling plans for mosquito larvae, including samplesize determination and application of sequential methods to estimate population size as well as to classify population level.     

The DYNAMO-HIA Model: An Efficient Implementation of a Risk Factor/Chronic Disease Markov Model for Use in Health Impact Assessment (HIA)

In Health Impact Assessment (HIA), or priority-setting for health policy, effects of risk factors (exposures) on health need to be modeled, such as with a Markov model, in which exposure influences mortality and disease incidence rates. Because many risk factors are related to a variety of chronic diseases, these Markov models potentially contain a large number of states (risk factor and disease combinations), providing a challenge both technically (keeping down execution time and memory use) and practically (estimating the model parameters and retaining transparency). To meet this challenge, we propose an approach that combines micro-simulation of the exposure information with macro-simulation of the diseases and survival. This approach allows users to simulate exposure in detail while avoiding the need for large simulated populations because of the relative rareness of chronic disease events. Further efficiency is gained by splitting the disease state space into smaller spaces, each of which contains a cluster of diseases that is independent of the other clusters. The challenge of feasible input data requirements is met by including parameter calculation routines, which use marginal population data to estimate the transitions between states. As an illustration, we present the recently developed model DYNAMO-HIA (DYNAMIC MODEL for Health Impact Assessment) that implements this approach.     

Testing a New Operationalization of the Basic Values on Estonian- and Russian-speaking Subpopulations in Estonia

The theory of basic human value developed by Shalom Schwartz has held a dominant place in the field of value studies for at least two decades. Despite of some modest adaptations, the theory has maintained its original form. Still, an increasing number of critical discussions have recently been published throwing doubt upon universality of its inner structure (e.g. Mohler and Wohn in Persönliche Wertorientierungen im European Social Survey, ZUMA-Arbeitsbericht, 2005; Clercq 2006; Perrinjaquet et al. in J Res Pers 41:820–840, 2007; Davidov and Schmidt in Measuring meaningful data in social research, Acco, Leuven, pp 373–386, 2007; Davidov et al. in Public Opin Quart 72:420–445, 2008; Davidov in Surv Res Methods 2:33–46, 2008; Knoppen and Saris in Surv Res Methods 3:91–103, 2009a; Knoppen and Saris 2009b; Fischer et al. in J Cross Cult Psychol 41:135–151, 2010). Most of these studies have proposed that the shortcomings of that model can be improved through unification of some adjacent value types (e.g. Davidov and Schmidt in Measuring meaningful data in social research, Acco, Leuven, pp 373–386, 2007; Davidov et al. in Public Opin Quart 72:420–445, 2008; Davidov in Surv Res Methods 2:33–46, 2008). However, Knoppen and Saris (Surv Res Methods 3:91–103, 2009a; Knoppen and Saris 2009b) have showed that the given grouping of factors was a consequence of misspecifications in the model and proposed an alternative structure with 19 value types, which has been largely confirmed by several recent papers (Cieciuch and Schwartz in J Pers Assess 94:321–328, 2012; Beierlein et al. in Surv Res Methods 6:25–36, 2012). Current study will also test the new model, but contrarily to cited papers, a representative national sample is used, which raises the robustness of findings. The data is from Estonia and collected in late 2008. Due to the existence of large ethnic minority in Estonian society, the sample allows additionally testing the equivalence of the measurement in the two subpopulations. This study shows that the alternative value-structure, proposed by Knoppen and Saris, applies well to the representative Estonian data.     

On the ‘Urbanness’ of Metropolitan Areas: Testing the Homogeneity Assumption, 1970–2000

In recent decades, population dynamics, have made definitions of what localities are rural or urban somewhat unclear. The vast majority of demographic work has simply used metropolitan classifications with various forms of a non-metropolitan residual (e.g., adjacent to metro versus non-adjacent). The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) periodically redefines metropolitan areas, which makes temporal comparisons difficult. In fact, some demographers have offered the idea that, due to these shifting reclassifications, the so-called “rural rebound” is a misnomer, in that non-metropolitan counties that transitioned to metropolitan status were, in fact, already more ‘urban’ than those that did not become reclassified as metropolitan (Johnson et al 2005). This argument depends largely on the assumption of homogeneity in rural or urban ‘character’ in those counties. Following arguments by others (Wilkinson 1991; Isserman 2001; Bogue 1950), we take population and land use into account to examine whether these transitional counties were more or less urban than comparable others, all at the county level for the contiguous 48 states for 1970–2000. Our results show that adjacent non-metropolitan counties that were later reclassified as metropolitan were indeed characterized by a larger population and heavier urban land cover than those not making this transition. However, the results also show that metropolitan areas were also quite heterogeneous in terms of traditionally rural activities. A discussion of the homogeneity assumption in demographers’ conceptualization of metropolitan areas is included.     

Richer in Money, Poorer in Relationships and Unhappy? Time Series Comparisons of Social Capital and Well-Being in Luxembourg

The worrying decline of social capital (Putnam in Bowling alone: the collapse and revival of American community. Simon and Schuster, New York, 2000) and the disappointing trends of subjective well-being characterising the US (Easterlin in Nations and households in economic growth. Academic Press, New York, 1974; Easterlin and Angelescu in Happiness and growth the world over: time series evidence on the happiness-income paradox, 2009; Easterlin et al. in Proc Natl Acad Sci 107:22463–22468, 2010) raise urgent questions for modern societies: is the erosion of social capital a feature of the more developed and richer countries or is it rather a characteristic aspect of the American society? To test the hypothesis that the erosion of social capital and declining well-being are not a common feature of richer countries, present work focuses on Luxembourg. The main results are: (1) the erosion of social capital is not a legacy of the richest countries in the world; (2) between 1999 and 2008, people in Luxembourg experienced a substantial increase in almost every proxy of social capital; (3) both endowments and trends of social capital and subjective well-being differ significantly within the population. Migrants participate less in social relationships and report lower levels of well-being; (4) the positive relationship between trends of subjective well-being and social capital found in previous literature is confirmed.     

High Levels of Same-Sex Experiences in the Netherlands: Prevalences of Same-Sex Experiences in Historical and International Perspective

Some authors suggest that the public stance toward homosexuality can influence the prevalence of same-sex experiences (e.g., Butler, 2005 Butler, A. C. 2005. Gender differences in the prevalence of same-sex partnering: 1988–2002. Social Forces,, 84(1): 421–449. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Since the Dutch stance toward homosexuality has become more positive during the last decades, it was hypothesized that the current Dutch prevalences of same-sex experiences are higher than in other times and countries. This hypothesis was investigated using the data of a recent Dutch population study, and comparing these results to those from previous and international studies. The current Dutch figures were indeed higher than recent figures from other countries. Among women, the recent figures were also higher than those found in previous Dutch studies. The prevalence of same-sex experiences among Dutch males stayed the same. These results and the methodological aspects of the study are discussed.     

Comments on Daniel A. Seiver's ‘Recent fertility in Mexico: Measurement and Interpretation.’

In a recent article in this Journal,¹Daniel A. Seiver concludes that ‘fertility’ in Mexico did not decline between 1960 and 1970. His conclusion is based primarily on an increase in the child-woman ratio from 725 per 1,000 in 1960 to 762 in 1970. Seiver simply asserts that this increase cannot be completely explained by declining infant mortality and under-enumeration. ² Ibid, p 343. . ³ Ibid, p 351.      

Psychometric Properties of the Flourishing Scale in a New Zealand Sample

The Flourishing Scale (FS; Diener et al. in Soc Indic Res 97(2):143–156, 2010) was developed to assess psychological flourishing, which can be conceived of as a social-psychological prosperity incorporating important aspects of human functioning. This study takes the FS, which has previously been validated on convenience samples of students, and analyses the underlying structure, psychometric properties, and demographic norms using nationally-representative data from New Zealand’s Sovereign Wellbeing Index (n = 10,009; Human Potential Centre in Sovereign Wellbeing Index: New Zealand’s first measure of wellbeing. Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, 2013). Evidence for the reliability and validity of the FS is presented (Cronbach alpha) and its performance compared to other related scales and behaviors. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis demonstrated the one factor structure of the 8-item FS. Contemporary population norms for the FS are reported, providing a much-needed benchmark for estimation of population health and permitting cross-study and international comparisons. The study provides further evidence that the FS is a valid and reliable brief summary measure of psychological functioning, suited for use with a wide range of age groups and applications.     

A distance measure of spatial pattern in a biological population

Summary Suppose thatn individuals locate independently and randomly on a segment of line of finite length (habitat). Let the theoretical and observed ranges of the sites of the individuals on the segment be μ _n-1 andr _n-1, respectively. Then, the degree of dispersion of the individual sites is measured by the ratio, T _n =n _n-1/μ _n-1, as follows: A random spatial pattern forI _r−1 =1 An aggregated spatial pattern for 0≤I _r <1 A uniform spatial pattern for (n+1)/(n−1)≥I _r >1. Another method was derived. Let the probability that an observed range is less thanr _n−1 beI _p , under the hypothesis of a Beta distribution. Then indicates A random spatial pattern forI _p =1/2 An aggregated spatial pattern forI _p <1/2 A uniform spatial pattern forI _p >1/2. The first index can be used for comparing populations having the same number of individuals, whereas the second one can be used for comparing populations with different numbers of individuals.     

“Starting To Feel Like A Chick”

This article explores the relationship between Campion's campion, jane. 2003. Interview with Lizzie Francke in. Sight and Sound, 13(11): 19 (November) [Google Scholar] In the Cut (2003 in the cut (film) (2003) Jane Campion (dir.), Australia/USA/UK, Sony Pictures [Google Scholar]) and the HBO television series Sex and the City (1998 sex and the city (television series) (1998–2004) USA, HBO, Seasons 1-6 [Google Scholar]–2004), and in particular, the series' concluding two episodes, “An American Girl in Paris (Parts Une and Deux).” It argues that In the Cut, despite its visual and narrative references to film noir, is most usefully seen, as Felperin observed in Sight and Sound, as a film for and about “the Sex and the City generation.” In its representation of contemporary New York, and of female friendship, in its exploration of the relationship between femininity, feminism and fantasy, and in its account of the problems of female authorship, it both evokes and interrogates the dominant themes of the hugely successful HBO series. In doing so, it also exposes the losses, repudiations, and violence which form the repressed shadow to the fantasised resolution which Sex and the City offers: that of a feminised New York as the place in which romance can be re-authored by women to serve a post-feminist female narcissism.