中国劳动力剩余与工资上涨并行不悖的解析——基于工农业部门劳动生产率视角

近年来,中国大量劳动力剩余与工资上涨并存,出现刘易斯拐点争议。基于刘易斯二元经济论,从劳动生产率变化的角度进行理论分析后,并根据中国1978—2012年剩余劳动力数量、工资和工农业劳动生产率数据进行经验分析,同时通过建立VAR模型进行协整分析和脉冲响应分析。研究表明工农业劳动生产率、劳动力剩余数和工资之间存在着联动效应;工农业两部门劳动生产率变化不协调是中国劳动力大量剩余和工资上涨并存的一个重要原因。在今后相当长的一段时间内,努力促进农业劳动生产率和工业劳动生产率协调变化是政府工作的重中之重。     

Leaving Home for Marital and Non-marital Reasons in the Netherlands, 1850–1940: The Impact of Parental Death and Parental Remarriage

Previous research shows that parentally bereaved children in north-western Europe in the past left home earlier than children who lived together with both biological parents. This article analyses the mechanisms behind this phenomenon with a special focus on the routes out of the parental household and the entry of step-parents and step-siblings. The Historical Sample of the Netherlands is exploited which contains detailed information about household composition and life courses of more than 22,000 female and male adolescent and young adult children born between 1850 and 1922. Event-history analysis is applied, and two exclusive routes out of the parental household, for marital and non-marital reasons, are studied in a competing risk design. The results show that parental loss does not increase the risk of early marriage before age 23, but strongly enhances the chances for leaving home for non-marital reasons, which are mainly work-related. This is especially true in case of maternal loss. No support is found for the hypothesis that the entry of a step-parent and step-siblings increases the risk of leaving home compared to living with a single widowed parent. Tensions with step-parents therefore do not suffice to explain why parentally bereaved children left earlier for non-marital reasons. Instead, we argue that children’s exit was in the interest of both the single widowed parent and the bereaved child.     

技术进步、户籍歧视与流动人口就业分化

利用2015年国家卫生计生委中国流动人口动态监测调查（CMDS）数据,结合测度各省技术进步水平的宏观年鉴数据,运用二元Logistict模型与Heckman Probit模型实证检验了技术进步对不同户籍类型下流动人口就业分化的影响。研究发现:流动人口内部就业分化差异显著,城镇流动人口比城乡流动人口有更高概率进入高收入岗位;技术进步强化了这种户籍歧视,同时存在高技能偏向性,使得城镇流动人口的中等技能和高技能劳动力比城乡流动人口更容易进入高收入岗位,但是在低技能群体中的影响效应并不显著。     

基于ROS的移动机器人控制系统

基于2014和2016年“中国劳动力动态调查”（CLDS）混合面板数据,采用中介效应模型,系统考察劳动力返乡对农业产出率的影响。研究表明：劳动力返乡提升了农业土地产出率,但对农业劳动产出率没有显著影响;劳动力返乡降低了农业内部种植业尤其是粮食作物的土地和劳动产出率,且对农业生产率的影响存在显著的区域差异;劳动力返乡通过土地流转和家庭劳动分工的两条要素重新配置的中介途径间接影响农业土地和劳动产生率,但借助农业资本配置影响农业产出率的路径不显著。当下鼓励外出劳动力返乡不利于传统农业的发展和现代化,劳动力返乡再就业亟需引导。     

Kinship patterns and household composition: Older unmarried Hungarian women, 1984

Household composition of older unmarried women in Hungary is analyzed using data from the 1984 microcensus. The principal determinants of household composition investigated are kin availability — the number of living children, siblings, and parents — health status, marital status, age, and income. A multinomial logit model distinguishing among five household types reveals that number of children, severe disabilities, age and income are all strongly related to household composition. Trends in fertility and mortality patterns suggest that kinship patterns will change in coming years; these results imply that household composition will, in turn, change as well.     

家庭负担、性别分工与贫困劳动力就业——基于湖北J县易地扶贫搬迁户的调查

基于湖北省J县易地扶贫搬迁户劳动力的调查数据,运用二元Logit回归模型,探讨不同类型的家庭负担对贫困劳动力就业的影响及其影响的性别差异。结果显示：整体来看,不同类型的家庭负担对贫困劳动力就业影响不同,其中,赡养负担对贫困劳动力就业具有促进作用,疾病负担对贫困劳动力就业有阻碍作用;分性别来看,家庭负担对贫困劳动力就业的影响存在着性别差异,女性比男性更容易受到家庭负担的阻碍。据此,应完善农村公共服务建设,减轻家庭负担对就业的阻碍;增加居家就业机会,减轻就业与家庭的冲突,以此促进贫困劳动力的充分就业。     

户籍制度与农民工就业歧视的实证分析

户籍制度对农民工就业歧视有着重要影响是学界多年来的一个共识。但是,在农民工就业比较集中的次级劳动力市场,户籍制度对就业歧视影响如何?文章基于实证数据分析得出,在农民工就业比较集中的行业和企业,户籍制度对农民工的就业机会、就业待遇、就业福利、职位升迁与社会流动四个方面影响不大。农民工就业受其受教育程度的影响较大。这说明在"准进入"门槛低的次级劳动力市场中,户籍制度的歧视作用在慢慢消解。     

家庭结构、重大疾病和农村劳动力迁移

在四川省大样本农户调查数据基础上,利用Probit模型分析了家庭结构特征对农村年轻劳动力迁移的影响。研究发现在控制个人特征的前提下：三代同堂家庭显著支持了年轻劳动力外出,而核心家庭对劳动力的外出有显著负面影响;家庭中有未成年人会限制年轻劳动力的外出;年轻配偶的重大疾病显著地影响了年轻人的外出老年人的严重疾病反而促使年轻劳动力外出,但如果家庭中存在未成年人,则老年人的严重疾病会对年轻劳动力迁移产生显著负面影响。研究结果突出体现了当前中国农村劳动力迁移在很大程度上是一种家庭内部的分工行为,在制定社会保障政策时应该予以重视。     

Factors Associated with Return Migration of First-Generation Immigrants in Belgium (2001–2011)

Belgium is a country with a long and diverse history of migration. Given the diverse context of immigration to Belgium, reasons for return migration will most likely vary as well. With this study, we want to quantify the return migration of Belgium’s immigrants and assess whether socio-economic, sociodemographic and health factors are related to return migration. Individually linked census and register data comprising the total Belgian first-generation immigrant population aged 25+ were used. Age-standardized emigration rates (ASER) by migrant origin and gender were calculated for the period 2001–2011. Additionally, relative return migration differences were calculated by country of origin and gender, adjusted for age group, length of stay, household composition, socio-economic indicators (education, home ownership and employment status) and self-rated health in 2001. Return migration was most common among immigrants from Spanish descent and from the neighbouring countries and higher among men than among women. Return migration was highly selective in terms of older age, lower length of stay in Belgium, not living with a partner or children, being high-educated, unemployed and in good health. Key issues for future research include examining the reasons for return migration, identifying the country of destination and accounting for household characteristics.     

Factors Associated with Return Migration of First-Generation Immigrants in Belgium (2001–2011)

Belgium is a country with a long and diverse history of migration. Given the diverse context of immigration to Belgium, reasons for return migration will most likely vary as well. With this study, we want to quantify the return migration of Belgium’s immigrants and assess whether socio-economic, sociodemographic and health factors are related to return migration. Individually linked census and register data comprising the total Belgian first-generation immigrant population aged 25+?were used. Age-standardized emigration rates (ASER) by migrant origin and gender were calculated for the period 2001–2011. Additionally, relative return migration differences were calculated by country of origin and gender, adjusted for age group, length of stay, household composition, socio-economic indicators (education, home ownership and employment status) and self-rated health in 2001. Return migration was most common among immigrants from Spanish descent and from the neighbouring countries and higher among men than among women. Return migration was highly selective in terms of older age, lower length of stay in Belgium, not living with a partner or children, being high-educated, unemployed and in good health. Key issues for future research include examining the reasons for return migration, identifying the country of destination and accounting for household characteristics.

     

基于分工的产业升级理论与对策

分工有利于提高劳动生产率,增进国民财富,促进人们需求的增长,从而扩展市场;而扩展的市场又会进一步深化分工。市场与分工交互促动,促进了人类社会的不断发展。如果说户籍是一堵高度正在降低的墙,那么高房价便是另一堵逐渐加高的墙隔开中国了城市与农村,阻碍了人力资本的流动,限制了市场规模,使经济处于非均衡发展之中。城市化水平低、第三产业需求量小是第三产业发展缓慢的根源。要通过促进分工深化和市场广化的对策促进产业的梯度升级。     

中国旅游业劳动生产率结构变迁效应研究——基于Shift-share方法的实证分析

要素流动是影响生产率增长的一个重要原因,两者间的关系可以借助结构变迁效应进行研究和阐释。文章使用Shift-share方法将劳动生产率的增长分解为静态结构变迁效应、动态结构变迁效应和生产率增长效应,实证检验了2000-2016年间中国省际旅游业劳动力要素流动对其生产率增长的影响,并从"结构红利假说"角度阐释产业结构变迁对旅游业发展的作用。研究表明,2000-2016年我国旅游业劳动生产率显著增长,增长的主要原因在于生产率增长效应。现阶段,我国旅游业"结构红利"和"结构负利"并存,需要进一步提升"结构红利"效应,促进中国旅游业劳动要素的合理流动,提升我国旅游业的整体发展潜力。     

农户家庭劳动力进城务工行为的影响因素分析

采用河南省农村住户问卷调查资料,运用二进制Probit回归方法,分析了农户家庭劳动力进城务工的影响因素。结果显示:家庭劳动力数量、家庭经营承包耕地数量、家庭户主性别和政治特征在统计上显著影响着农户家庭劳动力的进城务工行为;但是家庭户主的文化程度对家庭劳动力进城务工却呈负方向影响,并且除中专文化水平以外,其他受教育水平对家庭劳动力进城打工概率的影响在统计上检验均不显著。     

苹果种植户投入-产出效率分析——基于陕西洛川300个苹果种植户调查数据的分析

利用陕西洛川县28个自然村300个苹果种植户的调查数据,从微观角度对种植户的投入-产出效率及其影响因素进行统计分析。研究发现：2007-2008年苹果种植户的总体投入都有所增加,但是平均劳动生产率、资金利用率和劳动生产率下降幅度较大,这与苹果种植户的家庭劳动力结构、自然灾害影响、生产性资金投资不足、基础设施条件无法满足果农的需要等有着很大的关系。     

农业资源再配置的生产率效应评估

Optimizing the allocation of agricultural resources plays an important role in promoting the growth of agricultural productivity.Based on 1384 county level panel data from 2002 to 2015,this paper estimates the resource reallocation and its productivity contribution by OP decomposition,taking labor productivity,land productivity and total factor productivity as examples.The results show that:1)overall,the reallocation of land factors and labor factors are both lagging behind,while agribusiness resource reallocation has improved; 2)from the perspective of sample distribution,the reallocation of labor factors,land factor and integrated resource is lagging behind in northeast; 3)from the perspective of productivity effect,the optimal reallocation of labor factors can increase labor productivity by 54.64%,the optimal reallocation of land factors can increase land productivity by 55.86%,and resource reallocation contributes 17.37% of total factor productivity growth.Agricultural resource reallocation has a large potential productivity effect.Therefore,more attention should be given to the optimal allocation of agricultural resources in policy formulation,especially for the reallocation of land and labor,so as to make full use of the productivity effect of resource reallocation.     

关于新形势下高校二级工会工作的思考

高校二级工会直接面对基层广大教职工,最能把握和了解教职工的切身利益、心声和愿望.因此,作为基层组织的高校二级工会应坚持以教职工为本,全心全意为教职工服务,努力做到群众利益和集体利益相一致,使工会真正成为教职工之家.     

受教育程度如何影响消费水平?——基于我国家庭结构、消费类别和居住区域的实证研究

社会成员的消费活动主要是由家庭所控制和实施。利用中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）相关数据并运用模糊二元对比决策方法研究发现,在家庭结构、消费类别、居住区域不同的条件下,教育对消费水平的影响不同。第一,从家庭结构看,夫妇核心家庭总消费受到教育的影响明显;其中,家庭总消费受到女方受教育程度的影响更大;一般（或缺损）核心家庭的总消费受到孩子受教育程度的影响最显著,而父母受教育程度对消费的影响作用较弱。第二,从消费类别看,家庭消费中家用消费受到教育的影响最大,出行消费受到教育的影响最小。第三,从居住区域看,东部和中部家庭消费受到教育的影响相当,较西部家庭更为明显;东中部地区家庭家用消费、教育培训消费、旅游探亲消费受到教育的影响特别明显,西部地区家庭的食品消费受到教育的影响最为显著。因此,社区应加强对家庭消费知识的宣传,学校应进一步重视消费教育,国家应加强对西部教育的投入以增强教育对家庭消费的积极作用,缩小东、中、西部的差距。     

我国制造业进口多样化及其生产率效应研究

制造业进口多样化程度上升会提高其生产率。首先利用UNCOMTRADE数据测算2001—2014年我国25个制造业细分行业的进口多样化程度,发现制造业总体进口多样化程度先下降后上升,呈现阶段性波动;不同要素密集度制造业的进口多样化程度存在差异,资本密集型制造业进口多样化程度最高、资源密集型制造业最低。其次提出制造业进口多样化可以通过横向竞争效应、横向学习效应和纵向溢出效应提高其生产率,集中表现为劳动生产率上升。最后采用系统GMM方法估计动态面板数据,证实我国制造业进口多样化程度上升的确存在提高劳动生产率的效应,但是这种效应在不同要素密集度制造业中存在差别,进口多样化程度上升显著促进资源密集型和劳动密集型制造业劳动生产率提高、对资本密集型制造业劳动生产率的影响不够显著。     

A cross-national look at married women's earnings dependency

Using the Luxembourg Income Study data we examine married women's dependency on their husbands' earnings in nine Western industrialized countries: Australia, Belgium, Canada, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the United States. When we examine the level and degree of dependency, and the labor force participation of married women across countries, the nine countries fall into the three clusters delineated in Esping-Andersen's welfare states typology. But when we examine the determinants of the dependency within each country, the clustering disappears. Wives' dependency increases with age, the presence of young children, and the number of children. It is reduced when wives' labor force participation and education are high relative to their husbands' and in families that rely more on unearned sources of income. The similarity of patterns across countries suggests that gender differences in the work-family nexus are deeply entrenched in all countries and continue even in the face of very active social policy to minize their effects. This is a revised version of a paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Sociological Association, August 1995, Washington DC. Her current research focuses on gender inequality and parents' time allocation between work and family. She conducts research on various aspects of family demography, including household and family characteristics, co-resident grandparent families, cohabitation, and child care. With Suzanne Bianchi, she is completing a research monograph on trends in the American family. Her research focuses on gender, work, and family issues.