How and when a salesperson's perception of organizational politics relates to proactive performance

Politics in the workplace is a reality of organizational life. Several studies have investigated the negative implications of perceived organizational politics on various work attitudes and performance measures but not on proactive performance. However, proactive performance is important in a sales context because salespeople operate in an uncertain environment, and some task aspects cannot be formalized. Moreover, there is still a need for research to analyse the psychological mechanisms that lead perceived organizational politics to cause negative reactions from employees as well as to provide new insights on the boundary conditions of this process. Therefore, we examine the effect of perceived organizational politics on proactive performance through a salesperson's trust in the sales manager, as well as the moderating role of the salesperson's experience.This study uses dyadic data from 192 salespeople and their sales managers from a range of industries. The model entails a moderated mediation process. Results support the proposed model. The findings contribute to the salesforce management literature by suggesting the need to consider the importance of perceived organizational politics and by aiding in the understanding of how and when it hinders proactive performance.     

基于“拆分-填充-分解-集成”的我国线上零售额预测研究

线上零售额的准确预测是政府制定零售政策和发展规划的依据,也是电商和物流企业确定发展战略的基础。由于我国线上零售额数据具有样本量小、波动性大、受节日影响大、存在缺失值等特征,准确预测变得十分困难。为解决这个问题,本文提出了一种“拆分-填充-分解-集成”的预测框架。具体而言,首先将数据集拆分为实物零售数据与非实物零售数据两部分。其次,分别根据实物零售与非实物零售数据不同的缺失特征对样条插值法做了改进,提出了基于“样条插值-二分调整”的分解填充法以及基于“分段线性函数拟合-样条插值”的分解填充法,对两组数据进行缺失值填充。继而基于两组数据的不同特征,分别提出“乘法分解-ARIMA-移动平均”以及“STL分解-BP神经网络-灰色波形”的预测方法对两组数据进行预测。最后将两组预测结果集成,得到我国线上零售额的预测值。实证结果表明,本文提出的预测框架能较好地捕捉我国线上零售额数据的特征,具有很高的预测精度,且较传统的缺失值填充和预测方法在性能上表现更好。本文提出的“拆分-填充-分解-集成”预测框架,丰富了现有的缺失值填充与预测方法,并为预测实践提供了解决方案。     

INCORPORATING SALES FORCE PREFERENCES IN A GOAL PROGRAMMING MODEL FOR THE SALES RESOURCE ALLOCATION PROBLEM

This note presents a model for the sales territory assignment and resource allocation problem. The integer-goal-programming model includes input from the sales representatives in the form of preference values along with organizational goal values from management. The approach integrates the multiple objectiive inputs both for individual sales reprresentatives and for the organization into a single model by employing the approaches of multiattribute utility theory and multicriteria decision making. The purpose of the model is to provide a vehicle for testing various strategies and assessing the impact of those strategies on the sales representatives’utilities and the organization's goals.     

可读性和吸引性对商品销量的影响——基于电影简介的文本分析

商品简介为企业提供着向消费者传递商品信息，并激起消费者购买欲的重要作用。但是鲜有研究对商品简介文本的营销效果进行分析。为了弥补上述研究缺陷，本文基于营销实践的特征和相关文献梳理，并采用机器学习的方式度量了中国大陆2018年上映264部电影简介文本的可读性和吸引性水平，并检验其对首周票房和总票房的影响。研究发现，简介文本的可读性和吸引性对首周票房和总票房有差异化的影响，可读性对于首周票房的影响较大，而吸引性对总票房的影响较大。此外，明星的存在削弱了文本可读性和吸引性对票房的影响；而且，在高电影评分组中，可读性和吸引性对首周票房及总票房的负向交互作用显著。本文基于启发式-系统式模型凝练出商品简介文本的可读性和吸引性两个特征并研究其对票房的影响，对丰富中国电影研究，指导中国电影营销实践具有重要参考价值。     

Sales territory alignment for sparse accounts

A sales territory alignment problem for sparse accounts where travel time is a major component of the salesman's worktime is presented and analyzed. The objective is to minimize total driving distance of salesmen while equalizing driving distance between salesmen. A mixed integer programming formulation and an interactive heuristic algorithm in the context of a practical application are discussed.     

Early Sales of Seasonal Products with Weather‐Conditional Rebates

Some retailers of seasonal products adopt weather‐conditional rebate programs to induce early sales and increase profits. In such promotions, customers who buy the product in an advance preselling period are offered rebates if a pre‐specified weather condition is realized during the later normal selling season. We investigate the potential benefits of these programs for retailers. We show that the weather‐conditional rebate program can increase sales by price discriminating among a customer's post‐purchase states. Taking advantage of the early sales, it can also reduce the inventory holding cost and ordering cost, and hence can increase the retailer's expected profits. In addition, we numerically investigate the sensitivity of the rebate program's effectiveness to the model parameters and illustrate its advantages over an advance‐discount policy.     

Sales performance measurement in bank branches

Studies of bank branch performance have, to date, concentrated on obtaining a single perspective of efficiency. As the financial services industry has intensified, banks have increasingly engated in a proactive, differentiated and customer-based strategy in retail banking in which the sales component of the bank branch activity is emphasized. With the emerging sales culture within banks, as discussed earlier, there is a need to evaluate both sales and service performance. Cook et al. [12] have proposed a model to evaluate simultaneously the sales, service, and aggregate efficiencies of a bank branch. This model accounted for the fact that inputs, in particular resources, are often shared among these functions. In this paper, we extend the data envelopment analysis additive model using goal programming concepts. We thereby derive optimal efficiency scores while taking into account non-volume related activities, that is those involving resources that cannot be assigned to a specific input or output. Again, the proposed model derives an optimal split of the shared resources that maximizes the aggregate efficiency.     

Intra-regional sales,product diversity,and the performance of merchandising multinationals

This study examines the relationship between intra-regional sales, product diversity, and performance of 45 merchandising firms using data from 1997 to 2003. The interaction effects between product diversity and intra-regional sales on performance are explored, using a curvilinear relationship. The analysis integrates three main theories, namely the resource-based view, transaction costs, and organization learning theory. The models measuring a firm's performance by return on assets (ROA) and return on sales (ROS) show that at high levels of intra-regional sales, small levels of product diversity can generate greater return to a firm but high levels of product diversity may hurt a firm's performance. Higher levels of intra-regional sales tend to improve a firm's performance and enhance the impact of product diversity on performance.     

Self-Efficacy Beliefs and Sales Performance

Self-efficacy theory predicts that people will perform better when they believe they have the skills necessary for success. It also suggests, however, that believing in long-term rewards for success ("response-outcome expectations") does not correlate with adequate performance. This paper supports the generality of self-efficacy theory and provides evidence that self-efficacy beliefs predict insurance sales performance, whereas response-outcome expectations did not. A questionnaire was developed to measure self-efficacy beliefs and response-outcome expectations using 200 insurance sales representatives. Regression analyses were computed on a different sample of 97 insurance sales representatives using four separate dependent variables (calls-per-week; number of policies sold; sales revenue and a composite performance index on which actual sales commission was based). (1) These analyses established a correlation (but no causal relationship) between self-efficacy beliefs and sales performance. (2) The generality of self-efficacy theory in a business setting is suggested by the relationship between self-efficacy and objective measures of sales performance. (3) The relevance of these results, and the importance of integrating them into the practice of organizational behavior modification is discussed.     

Technology Use and Performance: A Field Study of Broker Workstations*

Organizations invest in technology with the expectation that it will contribute to performance, and members of the organization must use technology for it to make a contribution. For this reason, it is important for managers and designers to understand and predict system use. This paper develops a model of workstation use in a field setting where the use of the system is an integral part of the user's job. The model is based on the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), which we extended to include social norms, user performance, and two control variables. Brokers and sales assistants in the privateclient group of a major investment bank provided data to test our extended model. The core perception variables in TAM do not predict use in this study. Social norms and one's job requirements are more important in predicting use than workers' perceptions about ease of use and usefulness. The paper discusses the implications of these findings and suggests directions for future research.     

考虑促销因素的医药电商平台需求预测研究

医药电商平台需求预测涉及到药品自身属性及电商平台推出的各种促销活动,本文针对以上影响药品销量的因素提出了时间序列-机器学习组合模型对医药电商平台进行需求预测。传统研究促销因素的需求预测文献将促销阶段商品销量拆分为常规销量和促销增量的线性组合,本文首先拟合各药品促销阶段的常规销量,根据各药品常规销量时间序列数据及服用周期,使用SARIMA模型拟合药品的常规销量预测值,并将常规销量预测值与商品促销特征数据一同输入XGBoost模型进行集成学习预测。本文使用国内某医药电商平台真实销售数据测试组合模型的有效性,结果显示组合预测模型的预测效果相比其他三种传统预测模型更优。此外,本文验证了不同折扣力度下组合预测模型的有效性,以及促销变量在预测模型中的有效性,同时研究了数据共享策略在需求预测中的应用场景,结果显示预测模型在引入促销变量和采用数据共享策略后都能显著降低模型的预测误差。     

Supply Chain Management: Relationships, Chains and Networks

The term supply chain management is used to represent a variety of different meanings, some related to management processes, others to structural organization of businesses. This paper identifies and discusses various definitions of supply chain management, summarizes the associated bodies of knowledge and connects them using a systems approach. Systems levels of supply chain management are identified as the internal supply chain, the dyadic relationship, the external supply chain and the inter-business network.
Empirical research on behavioural aspects of relationships, chains and networks in the European automotive aftermarket is discussed, identifying gaps in perceptions of requirements and performance held by customers and suppliers in the areas of quality, delivery, service, range and price. A combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis demonstrates substantial differences between approaches to supply chain management, though performance in relationships, chains and networks in the territories examined does not differ significantly.
Customer dissatisfaction in relationships is shown to increase upstream in the supply chains examined, extending the applicability of the industrial dynamics 'Forrester effect' to softer, behavioural aspects of performance. Conclusions are drawn supporting the suggestions of operations strategists that position in the supply chain is an important strategic variable which, to date, have not been comprehensively proven empirically.     

Sales Forecasting with Financial Indicators and Experts' Input

We present a method for forecasting sales using financial market information and test this method on annual data for US public retailers. Our method is motivated by the permanent income hypothesis in economics, which states that the amount of consumer spending and the mix of spending between discretionary and necessity items depend on the returns achieved on equity portfolios held by consumers. Taking as input forecasts from other sources, such as equity analysts or time‐series models, we construct a market‐based forecast by augmenting the input forecast with one additional variable, lagged return on an aggregate financial market index. For this, we develop and estimate a martingale model of joint evolution of sales forecasts and the market index. We show that the market‐based forecast achieves an average 15% reduction in mean absolute percentage error compared with forecasts given by equity analysts at the same time instant on out‐of‐sample data. We extensively analyze the performance improvement using alternative model specifications and statistics. We also show that equity analysts do not incorporate lagged financial market returns in their forecasts. Our model yields correlation coefficients between retail sales and market returns for all firms in the data set. Besides forecasting, these results can be applied in risk management and hedging.     

Teamworking and organizational performance: A review of survey‐based research

This paper presents a review of recent survey‐based research looking at the contribution of teamwork to organizational performance. In particular, it focuses on empirical studies in which both teamwork and performance are directly measured in a quantitative way. The paper begins by identifying four interrelated dimensions of teamwork effectiveness: attitudinal, behavioural, operational and financial. The first two represent transmission mechanisms by which organizational performance can be improved. The latter two provide direct measures of organizational outcomes. The review shows that teamworking has a positive impact on all four dimensions of performance. It also reveals that, when teamwork is combined with structural change, performance can be further enhanced. The paper concludes by highlighting some important research gaps that future studies could address.     

基于公平关切线上与线下销售渠道演化博弈研究

公平关切影响决策行为,为分析公平关切对线上与线下销售渠道决策行为和竞争策略影响,构建线上与线下销售渠道博弈模型。基于博弈模型,对比分析四种公平关切情况对线上与线下决策变量和利润影响。进一步,为获得线上与线下稳定博弈结果,基于四种公平关切构建演化博弈模型,分析不同公平关切行为对销售渠道参与者决策行为影响。研究主要得到：一方采取公平关切时,会减少另一方收益;一方采取合作公平关切策略与另一方采取公平关切密切相关,也即当一方采取公平关切概率大于某一阀值时,另一方采取不公平关切;线上与线下经过长期演化博弈,演化稳定点为双方都采取公平关切。     

Sales force automation: review,critique, research agenda

We review and critique the research literature on sales force automation (SFA). SFA involves the application of information technology to support the sales function. SFA software provides functionality that helps companies manage sales pipelines, track contacts and configure products, inter alia. The paper is organized into four main sections. First, we review the SFA environment, identifying definitions, vendor classifications and software attributes. We then move to a review and classification of the academic research that has been published on SFA. We find that the entire body of SFA knowledge attempts to answer just four questions: Why do organizations adopt SFA? What are the organizational impacts of SFA? What accounts for the success or failure of SFA projects? What accounts for variance in salesperson adoption of SFA? We then critique this body of knowledge on a number of theoretical and methodological grounds, and finally propose a research agenda for the future.     

交叉销售下基于支持向量聚类的数据驱动多产品库存鲁棒优化模型

针对单周期环境下考虑交叉销售的多产品库存决策问题,在市场需求不确定条件下,建立了带有预算约束的交叉销售多产品库存鲁棒优化模型。针对不确定市场需求,采用支持向量聚类(SVC)方法构建了满足一定置信水平的数据驱动不确定集。进一步,运用拉格朗日对偶方法将所建模型等价转化为易于求解的线性规划问题。最后,通过数值计算对比分析了SVC不确定集下及传统不确定集下的零售商利润绩效,并评估了SVC数据驱动鲁棒优化方法导致的绩效损失,进而分析了预算及交叉销售系数对零售商利润绩效的影响。结果表明,SVC数据驱动鲁棒优化方法具有良好的鲁棒性,能够有效抑制需求不确定性对从事多产品销售的零售商利润绩效的影响。特别地,需求分布信息的缺失虽然会给零售商带来一定的绩效损失,但损失值很小,表明文中提出的基于SVC的数据驱动鲁棒优化方法可以为管理者在需求不确定性环境下制定库存策略提供有效决策借鉴。     

支持客户识别与维系的销售漏斗模型研究

本文分析了企业客户识别和维系研究中存在的问题,提出了一种能充分考虑企业动态变化环境和功能整合的模型——销售漏斗模型,给出了该模型的描述和支持系统架构,最后给出了销售漏斗的运用实例和讨论。     

Perceived managerial and leadership effectiveness in a non-profit organization: an exploratory and cross-sector comparative study

This paper presents the results of an ‘HRD professional partnership’ study of perceived managerial and leadership effectiveness carried out within a UK third sector (non-profit) organization. Using the critical incident technique, concrete examples [critical incidents (CIs) ] of observed effective and least effective/ineffective managerial behaviour were collected from a purposive sample of senior and middle-level managers of the collaborating registered charity. The CIs were content analysed to identify themes and analytical categories. Behavioural statements were then devised to reflect the constituent CIs of each category. The paper also reports the results of a subsequent cross-sector comparative analysis that explored the similarities and differences between the identified behavioural statements and the results of equivalent studies in the UK public and private sector organizations. The findings challenge the widely held image that managers need to adopt different managerial behaviours to be effective in non-profit organizations because of inherent differences between the sectors. How the resultshave been used by the collaborating organization is outlined. Finally, thelimitations, implications for practice and research recommendations are discussed.     

Accurate Response with Refurbished Consumer Returns

Centering around anticipative and reactive capabilities of firms, accurate response is an important supply‐side strategy to deal with demand uncertainty. Clearly, the structure of the possible reaction will crucially influence the optimal anticipative decision making. In this article, we extend the existing literature in this area by including a new reactive capability, namely the utilization of refurbished consumer returns from early sales to react to demand later in the selling season. Because consumer returns depend on previous sales, there is also a direct link to the anticipative supply decision. We capture this effect in a newsvendor‐type model and provide both analytical and numerical insights into the optimal anticipative and reactive decisions as well as the value of refurbishing in terms of the retailer's expected profitability.