非均衡共变与内控冲击：福彩市场周期波动互谱分析

近年来,中国福彩市场出现不稳定波动现象。因相关理论研究缺乏,故发行机构无法准确把握运行规律而出现决策失灵。运用经过约束条件检验的互谱密度函数频域分析法测度1987—2009年间的GDP、城镇居民可支配收入、农村居民人均纯收入、体育彩票发行额及CPI这5个经济变量波动对福利彩票发行额周期波动的影响,结果发现：短期内福利彩票发行额只与GDP存在较强周期共变关系,相干谱系数是0.71;5个经济变量的互谱增益贡献比都在1%以下;体育彩票发行额以增量方式发挥短期非均衡冲击作用,比福彩发行额滞后3个月。     

Direct and Indirect Effects Based on Difference-in-Differences With an Application to Political Preferences Following the Vietnam Draft Lottery

Abstract

We propose a difference-in-differences approach for disentangling a total treatment effect within specific subpopulations into a direct effect and an indirect effect operating through a binary mediating variable. Random treatment assignment along with specific common trend and effect homogeneity assumptions identify the direct effects on the always and never takers, whose mediator is not affected by the treatment, as well as the direct and indirect effects on the compliers, whose mediator reacts to the treatment. In our empirical application, we analyze the impact of the Vietnam draft lottery on political preferences. The results suggest that a high draft risk due to the draft lottery outcome leads to an increase in mild preferences for the Republican Party, but has no effect on strong preferences for either party or on specific political attitudes. The increase in Republican support is mostly driven by the direct effect not operating through the mediator that is military service.     

利用概率模型估算广东篮球彩票的中奖概率

2006年足球单场竞猜异常火爆,而全国联网篮彩却一直惨淡经营,竞猜型广东篮球彩票也只试行四个月就夭折,主要问题是篮球玩法和奖金设置不够合理.如何挽救低迷中的篮彩.是一个值得研究的课题,为使广东篮彩成为未来篮彩市场的主流.本文建议提高广东篮彩一等奖的返奖率,并给予保本优惠,再增设二等奖,在此基础上利用美国全国篮球联赛2004-2005赛季的数据建立概率模型来估计中奖概率,为奖金合理设置提供有益的参考.     

The Demand for Lotto: The Role of Conscious Selection

This article presents estimates of the elasticity of demand for lottery tickets using time series data in which there is variation in the expected value of a lottery ticket induced by rollovers. An important feature of our data is that there are far more rollovers than expected given the lottery design. We find strong evidence that individuals do not choose their lottery numbers uniformly from a uniform distribution—that is, conscious selection. We use our estimates to derive the inverse supply function for the industry, and this enables us to identify the demand elasticity. We find the price elasticity to be close to unity, which implies that the operator is revenue maximizing—which is the regulator's objective.     

环境规制对中国油料作物产出影响的研究——基于距离函数对技术效率的测度

在综述环境规制对技术效率影响的国内外文献基础上,通过距离函数测算了2001-2010年环境规制对中国东部、中部和西部地区四种油料作物的影响,从无规制、宽松规制及严格规制这三个层次揭示了环境规制对不同区域的大豆、油菜、花生及芝麻在产出技术效率和生产力发挥方面的差异化影响。研究表明:对于所研究的绝大多数地区,环境规制水平的提高能够提升该地区油料作物的产出技术效率,并有利于更大程度地发挥潜在生产力;而在极少数地区,较高的环境规制水平对技术效率的发挥已经起到了微弱的阻碍作用。最后,阐释了同一环境规制对不同产业产生迥异影响的普遍规律,论证了较为完善的环境规制应该是做为一个体系而存在的,为本国制定与完善环境规制提供了一定的参考。     

博彩的公平度

在现实生活中,我们经常会碰到博彩的场合,如购买彩票、有奖游戏、认购新股以及各种形式的赌博,等等。本文所论的博彩范围与通常意义上的有些不同。所谓博彩,是指这样一种投资活动：每次活动的结果可能赚也可能亏,预先可以知道或估计有哪些可能的结果,但出现哪一个结...     

Waiting time to exhaust lottery numbers

Questions related to lotteries are usually of interest to the public since people think there is a magic formula which will help them to win lottery draws. This note shows how to compute the expected waiting time to observe specific numbers in a sequence of lottery draws and show that surprising facts are expected to occur.     

Modelling the probability distribution of prize winnings in the UK National Lottery: consequences of conscious selection

Summary.  In the statistical and economics literature on lotteries, the problem of designing attractive games has been studied by using models in which sales are a function of the structure of prizes. Recently the prize structure has been proxied by using the moments of the prize distribution. Such modelling is a vital input into the process of designing appealing new lottery games that can generate large revenues for good causes. We show how conscious selection, the process by which lottery players choose numbers non-randomly, complicates the multivariate distribution of prize winners by introducing massive overdispersion of numbers of winners, and large correlations between the numbers of different types of prize winner. Although it is possible intuitively to reach a qualitative understanding of the data, an a priori model does not fit well. We therefore construct an empirical model of the joint distribution of prize winners and use it to calculate the moments of ticket value as a function of sales. The new model gives much higher estimates of ticket value moments, particularly skewness, than previously obtained. Our results will have consequences for policy decisions regarding game design. A spin-off result is that, on the basis of the results of model fitting, lottery players may increase the expected value of their ticket by strategically choosing numbers which are less popular with other lottery players.     

环境规制、政府支持与重污染行业的融资约束

利用2003—2009年A股上市公司数据,以Almeida等的现金-现金流量模型为基础,从融资约束角度,研究环境规制对重污染行业的影响。结果表明：环境规制放宽了重污染行业中央国企的融资约束程度;未对地方国企产生显著性影响,但加大了非国有企业的融资约束;所在地为地方政府环境政策支持度高的地区的企业,因环境规制而加重了融资约束,而对支持度较低地区的企业,融资约束状况却得以改善。结论支持了政府官员作为理性经济人的公共选择理论和对地方国企支持的政治庇护理论,表明考虑到地方政府利益的中央-地方政府环境规制实施机制的重要性。     

The 1970 US draft lottery revisited: a spatial analysis

Summary.  We revise the result of the 1970 selective service draft lottery in the USA following an open question that was suggested by Fienberg in a paper published in Science in 1971. The result of the drawings can be viewed as a particular spatial pattern which can be analysed by using general spatial tools adapted to our context. Approaches for assessing the complete spatial randomness for this spatial process on a finite support are proposed. More specifically, these approaches involve the number of events in a square window and a k ( r )-based function used to analyse stationary spatial point processes.     

A geostatistical approach to define guidelines for radon prone area identification

Radon is a natural radioactive gas known to be the main contributor to natural background radiation exposure and the major leading cause of lung cancer second to smoking. Indoor radon concentration levels of 200 and 400 Bq/m³ are reference values suggested by the 90/143/Euratom recommendation, above which mitigation measures should be taken in new and old buildings, respectively, to reduce exposure to radon. Despite this international recommendation, Italy still does not have mandatory regulations or guidelines to deal with radon in dwellings. Monitoring surveys have been undertaken in a number of western European countries in order to assess the exposure of people to this radioactive gas and to identify radon prone areas. However, such campaigns provide concentration values in each single dwelling included in the sample, while it is often necessary to provide measures of the pollutant concentration which refer to sub-areas of the region under study. This requires a realignment of the spatial data from the level at which they are collected (points) to the level at which they are necessary (areas). This is known as change of support problem.In this paper, we propose a methodology based on geostatistical simulations in order to solve this problem and to identify radon prone areas which may be suggested for national guidelines.     

Nonparametric density estimation for multivariate bounded data

We propose a new nonparametric estimator for the density function of multivariate bounded data. As frequently observed in practice, the variables may be partially bounded (e.g. nonnegative) or completely bounded (e.g. in the unit interval). In addition, the variables may have a point mass. We reduce the conditions on the underlying density to a minimum by proposing a nonparametric approach. By using a gamma, a beta, or a local linear kernel (also called boundary kernels), in a product kernel, the suggested estimator becomes simple in implementation and robust to the well known boundary bias problem. We investigate the mean integrated squared error properties, including the rate of convergence, uniform strong consistency and asymptotic normality. We establish consistency of the least squares cross-validation method to select optimal bandwidth parameters. A detailed simulation study investigates the performance of the estimators. Applications using lottery and corporate finance data are provided.     

金融危机和地产调控冲击下地产板块和整体股市的波动性研究

本文采用股票指数数据，通过BEKK—GJR—GARCH模型考察了地产板块和整体股市之间的均值溢出和波动溢出效应，并在此基础之上，进一步考察了在金融危机发生的特定时间窗口下，两者之间的波动溢出效应。此外，本文在引入表征危机事件和地产调控冲击的虚拟变量之后，考察了冲击对地产板块和整体股市波动性的影响。本文的实证模型考虑了非对称性因素并采用广义误差分布（GED）处理“厚尾”问题，是对现有研究范式的有益探索。本文的实证结果认为，地产板块和整体股市之间存在着显著的波动溢出效应，均值溢出效应的存在不甚稳健，但两种溢出效应都存在明显的非对称性。地产板块对整体股市的波动溢出持续性很小，但冲击会加剧波动，反之整体股市对地产板块的则具备持续性，冲击更强烈。波动溢出在2008年金融危机和2015年股灾期间存在变化，尤其是一方对另一方的直接冲击作用都更弱了，可能由两市场联结减弱导致，但非对称性依旧突出。引入表征事件冲击的虚拟变量后，估计结果能够显示出危机和地产调控对于地产板块和整体股市的波动性存在明确影响：直接来看，2010年的房市调控影响幅度最大，超过2015年股灾和2008年金融危机，这一点值得房市调控政策制定者注意；间接来看，六次事件中的五次均对地产板块和整体股市之间的相关性有影响，普遍性很高，由此，风险监管层有必要关注不同冲击下股市内部相关性的变化。     

环境规制的经济效应：“减排”还是“增效”

文章构建了一个关于环境规制经济效应的理论分析框架,并利用中国城市面板数据和动态空间面板模型实证检验了环境规制的“污染减排”和“提质增效”效应。研究结论显示,中国城市的环境规制具有“只减排、不增效”的经济效应及空间溢出效应,在考虑了一系列稳健性检验后结论仍然成立。进一步异质性讨论揭示出：环境规制“只减排、不增效”的经济效应在东、中、西三个地区均得到验证;环境规制的“减排”效应在国际金融危机以后得到明显增强,但仅增加了企业的“合规成本”,而尚未形成“创新效应”;通过加快产业结构调整可以有效改善环境规制“只减排、不增效”的经济效应;经济发展与能源效率呈U”型变化趋势,并且中国正处于“U”型结构的左侧,而库兹涅茨环境曲线并未得到中国城市数据的支持。     

环境规制、金融控制与经济波动

环境规制在降低经济活动的负外部效应时也造成了经济波动,金融发展是否可以平抑这种波动?对中国31个省市1980-2011年环境规制、金融发展及经济波动的面板数据进行实证,结果发现:环境规制强度跟经济波动呈正相关关系;金融发展程度对经济波动有平抑作用;金融控制越弱、金融发展水平越高的地区,环境规制对经济波动的影响程度越小。中国应在提高环境规制强度的同时,大力发展金融市场,以弱化对经济运行的负面作用。     

A spatial random-effects model for interzone flows: commuting in Northern Ireland

Government policy on employment, transport, and housing often depends on reliable information about spatial variation in commuting flows across a region. Simple commuting rates summarising inter-area flows may not provide a full perspective on the underlying levels of commuting attractivity of different areas (as destinations), or the varying dependence of different areas (as origins) on outside employment. Areas also vary in the degree of commuting self-containment, as expressed in intra-area flows. This paper uses a spatial random-effects model to develop indices of attractivity, extra-dependence, and self-containment using a latent factor method. The methodology allows consideration of the degree to which different explanatory influences (e.g. socioeconomic structure, characteristics of road networks, employment density) affect these aspects of commuting. The particular application is to commuting flows in Northern Ireland, using 139 zones that aggregate smaller areas (wards), so avoiding undue sparsity in the flow matrix. The analysis involves Bayesian estimation, with the outputs comprising full densities for extra-dependence, and attractivity scores and scores for intra-area containment of zones. Spatial patterning in these aspects of commuting is allowed for in the model used. One key pattern is the difference in latent effect estimates for urban (in particular, Belfast) and rural areas reflecting variable job opportunities in these areas.     

中国宏观经济预警体系的评价与修正

摘　　要:中国宏观经济预警体系建立于20世纪90年代初,十多年来为国家宏观调控提供了可靠的信息,成为宏观调控的主要依据之一。然而,进入本世纪以来,中国经济的运行格局发生了重大变化,导致预警体系的敏感度和预测精度出现了偏差,已经到了需要修正的时候。本文在对中国宏观预警体系分析与评价的基础上,对体系的结构与指标提出了修正的思路与方案。     

Estimating the movement among staging areas of the barnacle goose ( Branta leucopsis )

Barnacle geese ( Branta leucopsis ) make annual migrations between breeding colonies in northern Europe and Eurasia to wintering grounds in Holland. During the migration, they sojourn for several weeks in five areas on the northern coast of Germany. Observers traverse these areas during the course of studying the flocks. Previous belief was that there was little exchange of birds among the five areas; however, some banded birds were observed in more than one area indicating that some movement takes place. In this presentation, we estimate the movement rates among the areas using open- and closed-population models.     

Estimating the movement among staging areas of the barnacle goose ( Branta leucopsis )

Barnacle geese ( Branta leucopsis ) make annual migrations between breeding colonies in northern Europe and Eurasia to wintering grounds in Holland. During the migration, they sojourn for several weeks in five areas on the northern coast of Germany. Observers traverse these areas during the course of studying the flocks. Previous belief was that there was little exchange of birds among the five areas; however, some banded birds were observed in more than one area indicating that some movement takes place. In this presentation, we estimate the movement rates among the areas using open- and closed-population models.     

中国城市经济可持续发展的新视角——基于STATA面板数据分析

本文运用多元统计综合评价的方法,计算出2003至2007年间中国286个地级市的城市“紧凑度”以及经济可持续发展的综合得分。将全部城市划分为8大经济区域后,针对不同区域选择不同的模型,进行面板数据分析,检验结果表明：北部沿海地区、东部沿海地区、南部沿海地区适合发展紧凑型城市,这些地区城市“紧凑度”越高,将越有利于经济的可持续发展;而其他地区现阶段暂不适合发展紧凑型城市。