Shortest prediction intervals for the birnbaum-saunders distribution

Shortest prediction intervals for a future observation from the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution are obtained from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives. Comparisons are made with alternative intervals obtained via inversion. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to assess the approximate intervals.     

Repeated confidence intervals and prediction intervals using stochastic curtailment

Jennlson and Turnbull (1984,1989) proposed procedures for repeated confidence intervals for parameters of interest In a clinical trial monitored with group sequential methods. These methods are extended for use with stochastic curtailment procedures for two samples in the estimation of differences of means, differences of proportions, odds ratios, and hazard ratios. Methods are described for constructing 1) confidence intervals for these estimates at repeated times In the course of a trial, and 2) prediction intervals for predicted estimates at the end of a trial. Specific examples from several clinical trials are presented.     

Bootstrap confidence intervals for smoothing splines and their comparison to bayesian confidence intervals

We construct bootstrap confidence intervals for smoothing spline estimates based on Gaussian data, and penalized likelihood smoothing spline estimates based on data from .exponential families. Several vari- ations of bootstrap confidence intervals are considered and compared. We find that the commonly used ootstrap percentile intervals are inferior to the T intervals and to intervals based on bootstrap estimation of mean squared errors. The best variations of the bootstrap confidence intervals behave similar to the well known Bayesian confidence intervals. These bootstrap confidence intervals have an average coverage probability across the function being estimated, as opposed to a pointwise property.     

Repeated confidence intervals and prediction intervals using stochastic curtailment under fractional Brownian motion

ABSTRACT

Repeated confidence intervals (RCIs) and prediction intervals (PIs) can be used for the design and monitoring of group sequential trials. Stochastically curtailed tests (SCTs) under fractional Brownian motion (FBM) have been studied for the interim analysis of clinical trials (Zhang et al., 2015 Zhang, Q., Lai, D.J., Davis, B.R. (2015). Stochastically curtailed tests under fractional Brownian motion. Commun. Stat. Theory Methods. 44(5):1053–1064.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). In this article, we derive RCIs and PIs based on SCTs under FBM for one-sided derived tests (Jennison and Turnbull, 2000 Jennison, C., Turnbull, B.W. (2000). Group Sequential Methods with Applications to Clinical Trials. Boca Raton, London: Chapman and Hall. [Google Scholar]). Comparisons of RCI width and sample size requirement are made to those under Brownian motion (BM) and to those of Pocock and O'Brien-Fleming design types for various type I, type II error rates, and number of interim analyses. Interim data from Beta-Blocker Heart Attack Trial are used to illustrate how to design and monitor clinical trials using these RCIs and PIs under FBM. Results show that these one-sided derived tests based on SCTs have narrower final confidence intervals and require smaller sample sizes than those using classical group sequential designs. The Hurst parameter has more impact on the RCI width than on the sample size requirements for the proposed designs.     

Exact nonparametric confidence,prediction and tolerance intervals based on multi-sample Type-II right censored data

Exact nonparametric inference based on ordinary Type-II right censored samples has been extended here to the situation when there are multiple samples with Type-II censoring from a common continuous distribution. It is shown that marginally, the order statistics from the pooled sample are mixtures of the usual order statistics with multivariate hypergeometric weights. Relevant formulas are then derived for the construction of nonparametric confidence intervals for population quantiles, prediction intervals, and tolerance intervals in terms of these pooled order statistics. It is also shown that this pooled-sample approach assists in achieving higher confidence levels when estimating large quantiles as compared to a single Type-II censored sample with same number of observations from a sample of comparable size. We also present some examples to illustrate all the methods of inference developed here.     

Simultaneous prediction intervals for regression models with an intercept

Consider the usual linear regression model y = x’β+?, relating a response y to a vector of predictors x. Suppose that n observations on y together with the corresponding values of x are available , and it is desired to construct simultaneous prediction intervals for k future values of y at values of x which can not be ascertained beforehand. In most applications the regression model contains an intercept. This paper presents two sets of prediction intervals appropriate to this case. The proposed intervals are compared with those of Carlstein (1986), and the improvements are illustrated in the case of simple linear regression.     

Reliable confidence intervals for assessing normal process incapability

This study aims to provide a reliable confidence interval for assessing the process incapability index [C_pp]. The concept of the generalized pivotal quantities is utilized for constructing the generalized confidence interval for [C_pp]. And, simulations are performed for demonstrating our proposed method and one existent method. The results show that the empirical confidences of these two methods are significantly affected by the degree of process departure. Therefore, we suggest the practitioners to select proper one for capability testing purpose based on the information of degree of process departure.     

The conditional level of confidence intervals for the normal variance and applications

Suppose we observe two independent random vectors each having a multivariate normal distribution with covariance matrix known up to an unknown scale factor σ . The first random vector has a known mean vector while the second has an unknown mean vector. Interest centers around finding confidence intervals for σ² with confidence coefficient 1 ? α. Standard results show that, when we only observe the first random vector, an optimal (i.e., smallest length) confidence interval C, based on the well-known chi- squared statistic, can be constructed for σ² . When we additionally observe the second random vector, the confidence interval C is no longer optimal for estimating σ². One criterion useful for detecting the non-optimality of a confidence interval C concerns whether C admits positively or negatively biased relevant subsets. This criterion has recently received a good deal of attention. It is shown here that under some conditions the confidence interval C admits positively biased relevant subsets.

Applications of this result to the construction of ‘better‘ unconditional confidence intervals for σ² are presented. Some simulation results are given to indicate the typical extent of improvement attained.     

Comparing confidence intervals for the logarithmic series distribution

It is assumed that a small random sample of fixed size n is drawn from a logarithmic series distribution with parameter θ and that it is desired to estimate θ by means of a two-sided confidence interval. In this note Crow's system of confidence intervals is compared, in shortness of intervals, with Clopper and Pearson's, and the corresponding randomized counterparts.     

Short confidence intervals for variance components

Four approximate methods are proposed to construct confidence intervals for the estimation of variance components in unbalanced mixed models. The first three methods are modifications of the Wald, arithmetic and harmonic mean procedures, see Harville and Fenech (1985), while the fourth is an adaptive approach, combining the arithmetic and harmonic mean procedures. The performances of the proposed methods were assessed by a Monte Carlo simulation study. It was found that the intervals based on Wald's method maintained the nominal confidence levels across all designs and values of the parameters under study. On the other hand, the arithmetic (harmonic) mean method performed well for small (large) values of the variance component, relative to the error variance component. The adaptive procedure performed rather well except for extremely unbalanced designs. Further, compared with equal tails intervals, the intervals which use special tables, e.g., Table 678 of Tate and Klett (1959), provided adequate coverage while having much shorter lengths and are thus recommended for use in practice.     

On the lengths of t-based confidence intervals

Confidence interval is a basic type of interval estimation in statistics. When dealing with samples from a normal population with the unknown mean and the variance, the traditional method to construct t-based confidence intervals for the mean parameter is to treat the n sampled units as n groups and build the intervals. Here we propose a generalized method. We first divide them into several equal-sized groups and then calculate the confidence intervals with the mean values of these groups. If we define “better” in terms of the expected length of the confidence interval, then the first method is better because the expected length of the confidence interval obtained from the first method is shorter. We prove this intuition theoretically. We also specify when the elements in each group are correlated, the first method is invalid, while the second can give us correct results in terms of the coverage probability. We illustrate this with analytical expressions. In practice, when the data set is extremely large and distributed in several data centers, the second method is a good tool to get confidence intervals, in both independent and correlated cases. Some simulations and real data analyses are presented to verify our theoretical results.     

Distribution-free confidence intervals for quantiles and tolerance intervals in terms of k-records

In this paper, we consider the problem of determining non-parametric confidence intervals for quantiles when available data are in the form of k-records. Distribution-free confidence intervals as well as lower and upper confidence limits are derived for fixed quantiles of an arbitrary unknown distribution based on k-records of an independent and identically distributed sequence from that distribution. The construction of tolerance intervals and limits based on k-records is also discussed. An exact expression for the confidence coefficient of these intervals are derived. Some tables are also provided to assist in choosing the appropriate k-records for the construction of these confidence intervals and tolerance intervals. Some simulation results are presented to point out some of the features and properties of these intervals. Finally, the data, representing the records of the amount of annual rainfall in inches recorded at Los Angeles Civic Center, are used to illustrate all the results developed in this paper and also to demonstrate the improvements that they provide on those based on either the usual records or the current records.     

Nonparametric standard errors and confidence intervals

We investigate several nonparametric methods; the bootstrap, the jackknife, the delta method, and other related techniques. The first and simplest goal is the assignment of nonparametric standard errors to a real-valued statistic. More ambitiously, we consider setting nonparametric confidence intervals for a real-valued parameter. Building on the well understood case of confidence intervals for the median, some hopeful evidence is presented that such a theory may be possible.     

Bootstrap confidence intervals in mixtures of discrete distributions

The problem of building bootstrap confidence intervals for small probabilities with count data is addressed. The law of the independent observations is assumed to be a mixture of a given family of power series distributions. The mixing distribution is estimated by nonparametric maximum likelihood and the corresponding mixture is used for resampling. We build percentile-t and Efron percentile bootstrap confidence intervals for the probabilities and we prove their consistency in probability. The new theoretical results are supported by simulation experiments for Poisson and geometric mixtures. We compare percentile-t and Efron percentile bootstrap intervals with eight other bootstrap or asymptotic theory based intervals. It appears that Efron percentile bootstrap intervals outperform the competitors in terms of coverage probability and length.     

Simultaneous confidence intervals by iteratively adjusted alpha for relative effects in the one-way layout

A bootstrap based method to construct 1−α simultaneous confidence intervals for relative effects in the one-way layout is presented. This procedure takes the stochastic correlation between the test statistics into account and results in narrower simultaneous confidence intervals than the application of the Bonferroni correction. Instead of using the bootstrap distribution of a maximum statistic, the coverage of the confidence intervals for the individual comparisons are adjusted iteratively until the overall confidence level is reached. Empirical coverage and power estimates of the introduced procedure for many-to-one comparisons are presented and compared with asymptotic procedures based on the multivariate normal distribution.     

A comparative study of confidence intervals to assess biosimilarity from analytical data

Assessment of analytical similarity of tier 1 quality attributes is based on a set of hypotheses that tests the mean difference of reference and test products against a margin adjusted for standard deviation of the reference product. Thus, proper assessment of the biosimilarity hypothesis requires statistical tests that account for the uncertainty associated with the estimations of the mean differences and the standard deviation of the reference product. Recently, a linear reformulation of the biosimilarity hypothesis has been proposed, which facilitates development and implementation of statistical tests. These statistical tests account for the uncertainty in the estimation process of all the unknown parameters. In this paper, we survey methods for constructing confidence intervals for testing the linearized reformulation of the biosimilarity hypothesis and also compare the performance of the methods. We discuss test procedures using confidence intervals to make possible comparison among recently developed methods as well as other previously developed methods that have not been applied for demonstrating analytical similarity. A computer simulation study was conducted to compare the performance of the methods based on the ability to maintain the test size and power, as well as computational complexity. We demonstrate the methods using two example applications. At the end, we make recommendations concerning the use of the methods.     

Conservative confidence intervals for a single parameter

The method of constructing confidence intervals from hypothesis tests is studied in the case in which there is a single unknown parameter and is proved to provide confidence intervals with coverage probability that is at least the nominal level. The confidence intervals obtained by the method in several different contexts are seen to compare favorably with confidence intervals obtained by traditional methods. The traditional intervals are seen to have coverage probability less than the nominal level in several instances, This method can be applied to all confidence interval problems and reduces to the traditional method when an exact pivotal statistic is known.     

Small sample performance of jackknife confidence intervals for the james-stein estimator

The primary goal of this paper is to examine the small sample coverage probability and size of jackknife confidence intervals centered at a Stein-rule estimator. A Monte Carlo experiment is used to explore the coverage probabilities and lengths of nominal 90% and 95% delete-one and infinitesimal jackknife confidence intervals centered at the Stein-rule estimator; these are compared to those obtained using a bootstrap procedure.     

Prediction intervals - a review

This review covers some known results on prediction intervals for univariate distributions. Results for parametric continuous and discrete distributions as well as those based on distribution-free methods are included. Prediction intervals based on Bayesian and sequential methods are not covered. Methods of construction of prediction intervals and other related problems are discussed.     

Model robust confidence intervals

Confidence intervals are constructed for real-valued parameter estimation in a general regression model with normal errors. When the error variance is known these intervals are optimal (in the sense of minimizing length subject to guaranteed probability of coverage) among all intervals estimates which are centered at a linear estimate of the parameter. When the error variance is unknown and the regression model is an approximately linear model (a class of models which permits bounded systematic departures from an underlying ideal model) then an independent estimate of variance is found and the intervals can then be appropriately scaled.