Strict stationarity of ar(p) processes generated by nonlinear random functions with additive perturbations

Let {X_n} be a generalized autoregressive process of order ρ defined by X_n=Φ_n(X_n-ρ,…,X_n-1)-η_m, where {φ_n} is a sequence of i.i.d. random maps taking values on H, and {η_n} is a sequence of i.i.d. random variables. Let H be a collection of Borel measurable functions on R_P to R. By considering the associated Markov process, we obtain sufficient conditions for stationarity, (geometric) ergodicity of {X_n}.     

A zero-one law for large order statistics

Fix r ≥ 1, and let {M_nr} be the rth largest of {X₁,X₂,…X_n}, where X₁,X₂,… is a sequence of i.i.d. random variables with distribution function F. It is proved that P[M_nr ≤ u_n i.o.] = 0 or 1 according as the series Σ^∞_n=3Fⁿ(u_n)(log log n)^r/n converges or diverges, for any real sequence {u_n} such that n{1 -F(u_n)} is nondecreasing and divergent. This generalizes a result of Bamdorff-Nielsen (1961) in the case r = 1.     

Exchangeability,predictive sufficiency and Bayesian bootstrap

Summary Let {X _n } be a sequence of random variables conditionally independent and identically distributed given the random variable Θ. The aim of this paper is to show that in many interesting situations the conditional distribution of Θ, given (X ₁,…,X _n ), can be approximated by means of the bootstrap procedure proposed by Efron and applied to a statisticT _n (X ₁,…,X _n ) sufficient for predictive purposes. It will also be shown that, from the predictive point of view, this is consistent with the results obtained following a common Bayesian approach.     

On the number of near-records after the maximum observation in a continuous sample

{X_n, n≥1} are independent and identically distributed random variables with continuous distribution function F(x). For j=1,…,n, X_j is called a near-record up to time n if X_j ∈ (M_na, M_n], where M_n = max_1≤j≤n {X_j} and a is a positive constant. Let Z_n(a) denote the number of near-records after, and including the maximum observation of the sequence. In this paper, the distributional results of Z_n(a) are considered and its asymptotic behaviours are studied.     

Almost Sure Convergence of Weighted Sums for Negatively Associated Random Variables

In this article, let {X₁, …, X_n} be a sequence of negatively associated random variables and {a_ni, 1 ? i ? n, n ? 1} be a triangular array of constants. Several almost sure convergence theorems for the weighted sums ∑ⁿ_{i = 1}a_niX_i are established.     

On the max-semistable limit of maxima of stationary sequences with missing values

Let {_Xn}$\{X_n\}$ be a stationary sequence with marginal distribution in the domain of attraction of a max-semistable distribution. This includes all distributions in the domain of attraction of any max-stable distribution and also other distributions like some integer-valued distributions with exponential type tails such as the Negative Binomial case. We consider the effect of missing values on the distribution of the maximum term. The pattern of occurrence of the missing values must be either iid or strongly mixing. We obtain the expression of the extremal index for the resulting sequence.     

On Thresholds of Moving Averages with Given On-Target Significant Levels

Let X ₁, X ₂,… be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables, and let Y _n , n = K, K + 1, K + 2,… be the corresponding backward moving average of order K. At epoch n ≥ K, the process Y _n will be off target by the input X _n if it exceeds a threshold. By introducing a two-state Markov chain, we define a level of significance (1 ? a)% to be the percentage of times that the moving average process stays on target. We establish a technique to evaluate, or estimate, a threshold, to guarantee that {Y _n } will stay (1 ? a)% of times on target, for a given (1 ? a)%. It is proved that if the distribution of the inputs is exponential or normal, then the threshold will be a linear function in the mean of the distribution of inputs μ _X . The slope and intercept of the line, in each case, are specified. It is also observed that for the gamma inputs, the threshold is merely linear in the reciprocal of the scale parameter. These linear relationships can be easily applied to estimate the desired thresholds by samples from the inputs.     

Lp convergence and complete convergence for weighted sums of AANA random variables

Let {X_n, n ? 1} be a sequence of asymptotically almost negatively associated (AANA, for short) random variables which is stochastically dominated by a random variable X, and {d_ni, 1 ? i ? n, n ? 1} be a sequence of real function, which is defined on a compact set E. Under some suitable conditions, we investigate some convergence properties for weighted sums of AANA random variables, especially the L^p convergence and the complete convergence. As an application, the Marcinkiewicz–Zygmund-type strong law of large numbers for AANA random variables is obtained.     

Simulation of weibull and gamma autoregressive stationary process

This paper presents two simple non-Gaussian first-order autoregressive markovian processes which are easy to simulate via a computer. The autoregressive Gamma process {X_n:} is constructed according to the stochastic difference equation X_n:=V_n:X_n?1+?_n:, where {?_n:} is an i.i.d. Exponential sequence and {V_n:} is i.i.d. with Power-function distribution defined on the interval [0,1). The autoregressive Weibull process {X_n:} is constructed from the probabilistic model X_n:= k.min (X_n?1:, Y_n:) where {Y_n:} is an i.i.d. Weibull sequence and k > 1.     

Characterizations of geometric distribution and discrete IFR (DFR) distributions using order statistics

Let X be a discrete random variable the set of possible values (finite or infinite) of which can be arranged as an increasing sequence of real numbers a₁<a₂<a₃<…. In particular, a_i could be equal to i for all i. Let X_1n≦X_2n≦?≦X_nn denote the order statistics in a random sample of size n drawn from the distribution of X, where n is a fixed integer ≧2. Then, we show that for some arbitrary fixed k(2≦k≦n), independence of the event {X_kn=X_1n} and X_1n is equivalent to X being either degenerate or geometric. We also show that the montonicity in i of P{X_kn = X_1n | X_1n = a_i} is equivalent to X having the IFR (DFR) property. Let a_i = i and $\text{G(i) = P(X≧i), i = 1, 2, …}$. We prove that the independence of {X_2n ? X_1n ∈B} and X_1n for all i is equivalent to X being geometric, where B = {m} (B = {m,m+1,…}), provided G(i) = q^i?1, 1≦i≦m+2 (1≦i≦m+1), where 0<q<1.     

Convergence properties for weighted sums of NSD random variables

Abstract

Let {X_n, n ? 1} be a sequence of negatively superadditive dependent (NSD, in short) random variables and {b_ni, 1 ? i ? n, n ? 1} be an array of real numbers. In this article, we study the strong law of large numbers for the weighted sums ∑ⁿ_{i = 1}b_niX_i without identical distribution. We present some sufficient conditions to prove the strong law of large numbers. As an application, the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund strong law of large numbers for NSD random variables is obtained. In addition, the complete convergence for the weighted sums of NSD random variables is established. Our results generalize and improve some corresponding ones for independent random variables and negatively associated random variables.     

On the quantile process based on the autoregressive residuals

Let {X_t} be the stationary AR(p) process satisfying the difference equation X_t=β₁X_t−1 + … + β_pX_t−p+ε_t, where {ε_t} is a sequence of iid random variables with mean zero and finite variance. Motivated by a goodness of fit test on the true errors {ε_t}, we are led to study the asymptotic behavior of the quantile process based on residuals (the residual quantile process). Particularly, we concentrate on the deviations between the residual quantile process and the empirical process based on the true errors. In this asymptotic study, it is shown that the deviations converge to zero in probability uniformly over certain intervals with specific order as sample size increases. Here, these intervals are allowed to vary with the sample size n and converge to the unit interval as n goes to infinity. Then, based on our result and the strong approximation result of Csörgö and Révész (1978), we propose a goodness of fit test statistic of which limiting distribution is the same as of a functional form of a standard Brownian bridge.     

On characterizations based on record values and order statistics

Consider an infinite sequence of independent random variables having common continuous c.d.f. F. For 1 ⩽ i ⩽ n, let X_i:n denote the ith order statistic of the first n random variables, and let {X(n), n ⩾ 1} be the sequence of upper record values. We examine the similarities and differences between the dependence structures of the X_i:n's and the X(n)'s, with an emphasis on the latter. We present an interesting situation involving a characterization of F using the moment sequence of records. We obtain characterizations based on the properties of certain regression functions associated with order statistics, record values, and the original observations. We discuss the resemblance between some known and some new characterizations based on order statistics, record values and those based on the properties of truncated F.     

Moments of suprema of random variables

The supremum of random variables representing a sequence of rewards is of interest in establishing the existence of optimal stopping rules. Necessary and sufficient conditions are given for existence of moments of sup_n(X_n ? c_n) and sup_n(S_n ? c_n) where X₁, X₂, … are i.i.d. random variables, S_n = X₁ + … + X_n, and c_n = (nL(n))^1/r, 0 < r < 2, L = 1, L = log, and L = log log. Following Cohn (1974), “rates of convergence” results are used in the proof.     

Probability inequalities for continuous unimodal random variables with finite support

A paramecer-free Bernstein-type upper bound is derived for the probability that the sum S of n i.i.d, unimodal random variables with finite support, X₁ ,X₂,…,X_n, exceeds its mean E(S) by the positive value nt. The bound for P{S - nμ ≥ nt} depends on the range of the summands, the sample size n, the positive number t, and the type of unimodality assumed for X_i. A two-sided Gauss-type probability inequality for sums of strongly unimodal random variables is also given. The new bounds are contrasted to Hoeffding's inequality for bounded random variables and to the Bienayme-Chebyshev inequality. Finally, the new inequalities are applied to a classic probability inequality example first published by Savage (1961).     

The uniform convergence of the nadaraya-watson regression function estimate

If (X₁,Y₁), …, (X_n,Y_n) is a sequence of independent identically distributed R_d × R-valued random vectors then Nadaraya (1964) and Watson (1964) proposed to estimate the regression function m(x) = ? {Y₁|X₁ = x{ by where K is a known density and {h_n} is a sequence of positive numbers satisfying certain properties. In this paper a variety of conditions are given for the strong convergence to 0 of ess_Xsup|m_n (X)-m(X)| (here X is independent of the data and distributed as X₁). The theorems are valid for all distributions of X₁ and for all sequences {h_n} satisfying h_n → 0 and nh/log n→0.     

The number of records within a random interval of the current record value

LetX ₁,X ₂, … be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables with some continuous distribution functionF. LetX(n) be then-th record value associated with this sequence and μ _n ⁻ , μ _n ⁺ be the variables that count the number of record values belonging to the random intervals(f−(X(n)), X(n)), (X(n), f+(X(n))), wheref−, f+ are two continuous functions satisfyingf−(x)<x, f+(x)>x. Properties of μ _n ⁻ , μ _n ⁺ are studied in the present paper. Some statistical applications connected with these variables are also provided.     

Record values of exponentially distributed random variables

A sequence {X_n, n≥1} of independent and identically distributed random variables with absolutely continuous (with respect to Lebesque measure) cumulative distribution function F(x) is considered. X_j is a record value of this sequence if X_j>max(X₁,…,X_j?1), j>1. Let {X_L(n), n≥0} with L(o)=1 be the sequence of such record values and Z_n,n?1=X_L(n)–X_L(n?1). Some properties of Z_n,n?1 are studied and characterizations of the exponential distribution are discussed in terms of the expectation and the hazard rate of z_n,n?1.     

Asymptotic tail behavior of a random sum with conditionally dependent subexponential summands

In this paper, we obtain some results for the asymptotic behavior of the tail probability of a random sum S_τ = ∑^τ_{k = 1}X_k, where the summands X_k, k = 1, 2, …, are conditionally dependent random variables with a common subexponential distribution F, and the random number τ is a non negative integer-valued random variable, independent of {X_k: k ? 1}.