恩克西·约翰逊留给我们的心声

2000年7月12日在南非的德班召开的第13届国际艾滋病大会上，一位11岁的感染者在大会上发言。表露了他的心声。他是战斗在艾滋病第一线的战士，这个发言对当时的南非政府的艾滋病政策提出了挑战，并号召干百万人，起来和艾滋病展开斗争。他死于2001年6月1日。这个发言是他留下的一份遗产。     

中秋月·关爱情

“感谢县计生委给我送来的中秋月饼及默问金，虽然我家受了灾．在全社会的关心下．我会努力进行生产自救．报答你们给予我家的关爱。”星子县温泉镇庐山垅村二女户家庭金平桂捧着月饼和走访慰问金激动地说。这是江西省星子县在中秋节前开展“中秋月·关爱情”活动时走访庐山垅村受灾二女户家庭中的一幕。     

The End of “Lowest‐Low” Fertility?

Total fertility rates fell to previously unseen levels in a large number of countries beginning in the early 1990s. The persistence of TFRs below 1.3 raised the possibility of rapid population aging and decline. We discuss the recent widespread turnaround in so‐called lowest‐low‐fertility countries in Europe and East Asia. The number of countries with TFRs below 1.3 fell from 21 in 2003 to five in 2008. Moreover, the upturn in the TFR was not confined to lowest‐fertility countries, but affected the whole developed world. We explore the demographic explanations for the recent rise in TFRs stemming from fertility timing effects as well as economic, policy, and social factors. Although the current economic downturn may suppress TFRs in the short run, we conclude that formerly lowest‐low‐fertility countries will continue to see increases in fertility as the transitory effects of shifts to later childbearing become less important.     

阳光·童心·女孩——石棉县开展“关爱女孩石棉行”社会宣传活动

石棉县在去年被列为四川省5个省级“关爱女孩行动”项目试点之一．目前也是雅安市惟一的试点县。继前阶段开展一系列形式多样的活动后．今年将活动进一步推向深入．又组织开展“关爱女孩石棉行”社会宣传活动。积极采取“结合、融入”的方法．争取县政府妇女儿童工作委员会、关心下一代工作委员会以及宣传．文化。     

Measuring Geographic Migration Patterns Using <Emphasis Type="Italic">Matrículas Consulares</Emphasis>

In this article, we show how to use administrative data from the Matrícula Consular de Alta Seguridad (MCAS) identification card program to measure the joint distribution of sending and receiving locations for migrants from Mexico to the United States. Whereas other data sources cover only a small fraction of source or destination locations or include only very coarse geographic information, the MCAS data provide complete geographic coverage of both countries, detailed information on migrants’ sources and destinations, and a very large sample size. We first confirm the quality and representativeness of the MCAS data by comparing them with well-known household surveys in Mexico and the United States, finding strong agreement on the migrant location distributions available across data sets. We then document substantial differences in the mix of destinations for migrants from different places within the same source state, demonstrating the importance of detailed substate geographical information. We conclude with an example of how these detailed data can be used to study the effects of destination-specific conditions on migration patterns. We find that an Arizona law reducing employment opportunities for unauthorized migrants decreased emigration from and increased return migration to Mexican source regions with strong initial ties to Arizona.     

<Emphasis Type="Bold">Increasing Inequality in Parent Incomes and Children’s Schooling</Emphasis>

Income inequality and the achievement test score gap between high- and low-income children increased dramatically in the United States beginning in the 1970s. This article investigates the demographic (family income, mother’s education, family size, two-parent family structure, and age of mother at birth) underpinnings of the growing income-based gap in schooling using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Across 31 cohorts, we find that increases in the income gap between high- and low-income children account for approximately three-quarters of the increasing gap in completed schooling, one-half of the gap in college attendance, and one-fifth of the gap in college graduation. We find no consistent evidence of increases in the estimated associations between parental income and children’s completed schooling. Increasing gaps in the two-parent family structures of high- and low-income families accounted for relatively little of the schooling gap because our estimates of the (regression-adjusted) associations between family structure and schooling were surprisingly small for much of our accounting period. On the other hand, increasing gaps in mother’s age at the time of birth accounts for a substantial portion of the increasing schooling gap: mother’s age is consistently predictive of children’s completed schooling, and the maternal age gap for children born into low- and high-income families increased considerably over the period.     

An assessment of China’s fertility level using the variable-<Emphasis Type="Italic">r</Emphasis> method

The fertility level in China is a matter of uncertainty and controversy. This paper applies Preston and Coale's (1982) variable-r method to assess the fertility level in China. By using data from China's 1990 and 2000 censuses as well as annual population change surveys, the variable-r method confirms that Chinese fertility has reached a level well below replacement.     

Supervisor–Subordinate <Emphasis Type="Italic">Guanxi</Emphasis> and Job Satisfaction Among Migrant Workers in China

In urban China, improving rural–urban migrant workers’ subjective wellbeing has become an important goal for workplaces and local governments. Drawing from the social capital theory and using original survey data, we examine the relationship between migrant workers’ guanxi (‘personal relations’ in the Chinese context) with their supervisors and their job satisfaction. Our results show that supervisor–subordinate guanxi is positively related to migrant workers’ job satisfaction. This relationship is mediated by network resources and personal power, which serve as their social resources in workplaces. Our study contributes to the positive psychology literature by understanding the role of guanxi in shaping Chinese migrant workers’ job satisfaction. Implications and future research directions are discussed.     

The “difference between heaven and earth”: Urban–rural disparities in well-being in China

Although China is a rapidly developing nation, rural–urban disparities in well-being remain large, and perhaps have become larger than in the early years of the Communist period because the urban sector has benefited from China's transition to a market economy much more than has the rural sector; or perhaps have become smaller as earning opportunities in the export-oriented manufacturing sector have increased for those from rural origins. Economic disparities are exacerbated by institutional arrangements that have created a two-class society based on registration (hukou) status with sharp rural–urban distinctions in the public provision of schooling, health care, housing, and retirement benefits. Indeed, it is fair to say that China built an urban welfare state on the backs of the peasants.     

新疆的劳动力市场和少数民族劳动者

中国劳动力市场的一个突出特点就是其分割性,这种“分割性”具体表现在城乡之间的分割、城市内部之间的分割、农村内部之间的分割。本文以新疆劳动力市场为例,考察了劳动力市场的地区分割,特别是民族地区劳动力市场的特点及其产生的主要问题。新疆劳动力市场呈现出民族成分构成较高,劳动者主要集中在第一和第二产业就业,人力资本投资普遍不足的特点。从劳动力市场指标来看,新疆的失业率水平虽然总体比较平稳,但是少数民族劳动者的失业率较高。他们的工资水平较低,流动意愿也不高,这进一步阻碍了其提高收入和改善经济地位的可能性。政府在制定宏观劳动政策时必须注意这些特点,改善劳动力市场中弱势群体的经济地位。     

签订和未签订劳动合同农民工的劳动报酬差异

本文依据2013年流动人口动态监测调查数据中的8城市融合数据,建立农民工劳动报酬方程的双重样本选择偏差修正模型,提出相应的劳动报酬差异分解方法,用于分析签订劳动合同和未签订劳动合同农民工之间的劳动报酬差异。研究表明,农民工就业选择和劳动合同选择具有较强的相关性。签订劳动合同农民工的劳动报酬水平明显高于未签订劳动合同农民工的劳动报酬水平,是否签订劳动合同是造成两类农民工劳动报酬差异的主要原因。签订劳动合同将导致男性农民工和女性农民工的劳动报酬水平分别提升15%和31%。因此,政府部门督促用工单位贯彻执行《劳动合同法》,提高农民工劳动合同签订率,将不仅有助于农民工劳动报酬水平的显著提升,而且有助于构建和谐稳定的劳动关系。     

农村劳动力回流与劳动力密集型产业的开发

不同于以往农村劳动力的外流,近年来出现的“逆潮回归”现象是农村劳动力流动的一大转变。通过对农村劳动力流出及回流的“推－拉” 因素的比较分析,不难看出回流现象存在的可能性与现实性。回流者通过自己的才识展现,为回流地输入资金、技术和人力资本,带动当地新型的劳动力密集型产业的开发,表现为发展农业产业一体化,促使传统产业的梯度转移,以及在城乡之间、先进和落后地区之间建立全新的要素分配机制。     

劳动力市场的产业分割与劳动人口流动

在劳动力市场分割及衍生的社会不平等这一研究领域,理论关注集中在劳动力市场的城乡分割和“国有一非国有”部门分割。文章认为,20世纪90年代以来,在城乡分割和部门分割弱化的同时,向非国有经济开放的产业和由国有单位垄断的产业所构成的非农产业划分已经成为分割劳动力市场的新结构。劳动力市场的产业分割意味着就业机会的不平等。文章利用第五次全国人口普查抽样数据所做Logistic回归分析结果证实了不同劳动人口群体进入收入相对丰厚的国家垄断产业就业的机会差异。     

人力资本投资与中国农业劳动力的转移

当前中国农业劳动力的转移存在许多问题：转移不足;转移的组织方式低级化;转移巩固率低;转移产业层次低;转移前后的比较收益不高;转移的社会负面效应突出。而人力资本存量少,农民素质低是产生以上问题的关键性因素。为促进农业劳动力的良性转移应采取如下措施：１．继续严格控制农村人口数量,提高人口素质;２．合理调整农村教育结构,积极发展农村职业技术教育;３．以素质教育为目标,拓宽教育途径,改革教学内容;４．提高农村教师素质;５．建立和完善人力资本投资收益机制;６．建立健全农村人力资本投资市场。     

关于我国“民工荒”与农民工福利待遇的探讨

2004年前后在我国珠三角等地出现了"民工荒"现象,这是否意味着我国农村劳动力乡-城迁移已经接近尾声,从而农村实现土地规模化经营的时机已经成熟?本文根据托达罗模型,利用成本-收益分析法,提出这是农民进城务工收入与务农收入之间差距缩小导致的农村劳动力做出的非迁移决策.并探讨了设置农民工福利项目对劳动力市场和企业雇佣成本的影响.     

中国农村劳动力转移与劳动收入份额变动研究

文章从农村劳动力转移的角度研究了中国劳动收入份额的变动问题,认为农村劳动力转移影响收入分配格局至少有两条途径:一是农村劳动力从劳动收入份额相对较高的农业部门转移到劳动收入份额较低的非农部门,将直接导致整个经济劳动收入份额的下降;二是农村劳动力转移会通过改变非农部门中资本和劳动的相对谈判能力来影响非农部门的收入分配格局,进而间接影响整个经济的要素收入分配格局。文章的研究结果表明,尽管农村劳动力转移与劳动收入份额下降之间有一定的必然联系,但现阶段仍可以通过调整国内的产业分布格局形成劳动力需求竞争态势、增加农村居民在第一产业的收入以提升保留工资、建立劳动力市场制度以协调谈判能力来逐步改变要素收入分配格局。     

人力资源代理:一种新型劳动人事关系模式

人力资源代理在降低用人单位成本和风险、减少失业、保障劳动者权益、促进人力资源合理配置等多方面有着积极的作用。各级劳动人事部门应积极探索人力资源代理的新型管理模式 ,并为其发展提供必要的政策支持     

城镇正规就业与非正规就业的收入差异研究

本文基于2011年中国社会状况综合调查数据,运用倾向值匹配方法控制内生性,通过比较非正规就业与正规就业的收入差异厘清既有理论中的认知矛盾。研究发现,非正规就业者总体的小时收入和月收入并未显著低于正规就业者,但该群体存在明显的异质性。由于缺乏正式制度保护,非正规受雇者、特别是女性非正规受雇者存在显著的低收入现象;而非正规自雇者的收入水平显著高于正规就业者,这一收入优势在欠佳的制度环境下还有所放大。因此,二元主义理论和新自由主义理论分别与非正规受雇者和自雇者的特征更为契合。本文认为,两大理论在本质上都追求高效、廉洁、善治的正式制度。对受雇者而言,政府应适度介入,加强劳工的权益保护;而对自雇者而言,政府应继续推进简政放权,改善治理绩效,降低自雇者参与正规经济活动的制度成本。     

劳动参与率与劳动力增长:1982～2050年

劳动参与率是影响劳动力变化的三要素之一。它一方面具备相对稳定的模式,另一方面又受到一系列个人和外部因素的影响。文章基于普查数据,着重分析了劳动参与的年龄模式和主要影响因素,并预测了未来劳动力的发展趋势。结果发现,中国劳动参与年龄模式正趋向于稳定的倒U形,存在着明显的性别、城乡差异。回归结果表明,高中以上受教育程度可大大提高劳动参与,特别是女性的劳动参与,表明人力资本是未来劳动力发展的一个根本因素。预测结果显示,劳动力规模10年后将不可避免地出现负增长,同时中老年劳动力的比重也会大幅上升。对此,应采取相应措施以减轻劳动力变化所带来的震荡。