Cohabitation and child Well-Being

In “Cohabitation and Child Well-Being,” Wendy D. Manning, an associate professor in Bowling Green State University's Department of Sociology, summarizes what is known about cohabitation and its effects on children. She describes how some people view “cohabiting-couple” households (that is, unmarried couples cohabiting with a biological child of at least one of the adults) as a two-parent family form and that one of the major goals of the 1996 welfare reform law was to encourage the formation and maintenance of two-parent families. The main sources of data she uses are the Current Population Survey (CPS), the Decennial Census, the Survey of Income and Program Participation, the National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH), and the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG).     

Child maltreatment and foster care

In “Child Maltreatment and Foster Care,” Richard J. Gelles, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania School of Social Work, reports what is known about the incidence of child maltreatment and foster care placement rates since welfare reform. He relies on four major sources of data: Current Trends in Child Abuse Reporting and Fatalities: Results of the 1998 Annual Fifty State Survey, the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS), the National Incidence Survey of Reported and Recognized Child Maltreatment (NIS), and the Voluntary Cooperative Information System (VCIS).     

Welfare Reform and the Caseload Decline

In this essay Douglas J. Besharov and Peter Germanis trace what is known about the large decrease in welfare recipiency and what families are doing after they leave welfare. According to them, welfare offices have been transformed from places where mothers are automatically signed up for benefits to places where mothers are helped (and at times pressured) to get a job—or to rely on others for support. The authors' main data sources are the Current Population Survey (CPS), the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), state administrative data on welfare submitted to HHS, and state "leaver studies."     

Child health

In "Child Health," Lorraine V. Klerman, a professor at Brandeis University's Heller School for Social Policy and Management, describes the difficulty of measuring welfare reform's impact on children's physical and mental health by using existing data sources and suggests additional approaches to consider. She relies on the following data sources: the Behavior and Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS); the Current Population Survey (CPS); the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS); the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS); the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES); the National Hospital Discharge Survey (NHDS); the National Household Survey of Drug Abuse (NHSDA); the National Immunization Survey; the State and Local Area Integrated Telephone Survey (SLAITS); the VSCP; and the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS).     

Crime and juvenile delinquency

In “Crime and Juvenile Delinquency,” Lawrence W. Sherman, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Department of Sociology, describes how changes in criminal and other dysfunctional behaviors could be measured. He relies on data from the National Crime Victimization Survey and the Uniform Crime Reporting System. Sherman describes how criminal behavior tends to be concentrated in inner-city neighborhoods. He contends that “it is misleading to compare homicide rates across cities or to look at national homicide rates without disaggregating them by the factors that are most strongly correlated with their existence.” Although individual characteristics, such as age, race, and income, are important, he notes that “the effects of those characteristics are magnified by location and space.”     

Nutrition,food security,and obesity

In “Nutrition, Food Security, and Obesity,” Harold S. Beebout, a senior fellow at Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., and chief information officer at the Child and Family Services Agency, District of Columbia, reviews what is known about nutrition, food security, and obesity. He relies on the following data sources: the Continuing Survey of Food Intake for Individuals (CSFII), the CPS, the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES), and state administrative data reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Beebout first examines the forces behind the dramatic decline in food stamp rolls, which dropped by 9.1 million (35 percent) between August 1995 and July 2000. He describes how the welfare reform law (PRWORA) restricted eligibility, particularly for able-bodied adults who have no children and who work less than twenty hours per week. He adds that many legal immigrants were disqualified under the legislation as well. But, he notes, these changes explain only about 20 percent of the food stamp decline. Most of the decline occurred among households with children, many of which still appear to be eligible for benefits.     

国家能源补贴政策对居民能源选择的影响——基于CHNS微观数据

利用中国健康与营养调查（CHNS）数据,构建面板二值选择模型,实证分析国家能源补贴政策对居民能源选择的影响。结果表明：国家能源补贴政策在很大程度上影响着居民个人的能源选择行为;同样的能源补贴力度,对清洁能源的补贴将会收到更好的效果。国家应大力提高对清洁能源的补贴强度,相应地减少对化石能源的补贴,以此调整能源结构,进而达到保护环境的目的。     

机构投资和政府补贴影响中国制造业创新研究

机构投资和政府补贴对微观企业创新的直接影响一直受到学界关注,但鲜有学者探究它们对整个行业创新水平的总体作用效果。基于中国制造业所处的“大而不强”和粗放发展窘境,文章将国家专利数据库与中国工业企业数据库进行匹配,从中观层面检验机构投资和政府补贴对中国制造业创新的影响。文章首先通过固定效应模型检验发现：机构投资者进入能显著促进制造业创新数量,但高技术和低技术制造业部门的创新路径存在差异,机构投资对高技术制造业部门的促进效果明显低于低技术部门;政府补贴非但不能达到预期效果,反而抑制了制造业创新。基于三阶段最小二乘法和倾向得分匹配法的检验结果与基准检验结果一致。为进一步分析机构投资通过何种路径去影响制造业创新,文章以研发费用和创新效率为中介变量,通过逐步法检验表明,机构投资可以引致研发费用的增加,并提高制造业创新效率,而政府补贴对创新效率有负向影响。产业的集聚环境是影响企业经营管理的重要因素,最后文章将产业多样性集聚作为企业经营的外部环境进行研究,考虑其在机构投资和政府补贴发挥作用时的调节效应,研究发现,多样性集聚会抑制机构投资的正向效果,增强政府补贴的负向效果。文章将中国工业企业数据库、国家专利数据库、清科机构投资数据库和中国城市统计年鉴等多个微观和中观数据库进行匹配汇总,从产业层面研究了机构投资和政府补贴对中国制造业创新的影响,还考虑了区域企业间相互作用可能存在的交互影响效果。根据理论和实证研究,结合当前我国的经济形势,文章提出了四点政策建议:创造良好的机构投资环境,引导机构与制造业企业合作,推动创新;加大对科学事业的支持力度,引导高校、研究机构等研究成果的落地应用,促进实质性、高水平创新;制定更有效的财政补贴政策,减少寻租行为;充分考虑地区的资源禀赋和市场环境,将多样化的集聚转化为市场的发展优势,培育产业链集群协调创新。     

Family and Child Welfare Reconsidered

In the issue's final essay, Douglas J. Besharov and Peter H. Rossi summarize the major findings of this issue. The main sources of data they discuss, besides the essays in this issue, are the Current Population Survey (CPS), the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), the National Survey of America's Families (NSAF), the Survey of Program Dynamics (SPD), the Project on Devolution and Urban Change (UC), and the Child Impact Waiver Experiments.     

Parenthood and Life Satisfaction in Europe: The Role of Family Policies and Working Time Flexibility

The life satisfaction of parents residing with dependent children varies greatly between countries. This article examines how country-level characteristics—the provision of family allowances and formal child care, and the level of working time flexibility—account for these cross-national differences, using data from the European Social Survey from 2004 and 2010 for 27 countries. Parents report greater life satisfaction in countries that offer generous financial benefits to families, high child care provision, and high working time flexibility than parents residing in counties with low levels of support. Results also show that these national contextual factors are associated with lower levels of financial strain and work–life conflicts among parents. These findings suggest that the mitigating effect of family benefits, child care provision, and working time flexibility on the psychosocial and financial burdens of parenthood is a key mechanism in the association between national contextual factors and parental life satisfaction.     

财政补贴林业保险的方案设计——以黑龙江垦区为例

缺少法律法规和相关配套政策的支持,是导致我国林业保险发展缓慢的主要原因之一。笔者借鉴起步较早并相对成熟的黑龙江垦区农业保险实践,通过分析黑龙江垦区农业保险的发展状况和面临的问题,紧密结合林业的特点,从补贴的标的、险种、金额、方式和标准几个方面,提出了财政补贴林业保险的方案设计。     

农地确权、粮食作物与收入不平等

采用2016年中国劳动力动态调查数据（CLDS），基于Kakwani相对剥夺指数测度农户层面的收入不平等程度，检验农地确权对农户粮食作物收入和农户间收入不平等的影响。研究发现：农地确权后，农户收入提高了21.3%，农户间收入不平等程度缩小了0.041，并且这一结果具有稳健性。从机制来看，农地确权促进农户购置农机、提高农户农业生产的机械化程度，进而推动农户增收与共同富裕。基于此，应大力推行农地确权，明晰农地权属，并且通过农机补贴等措施鼓励农户实施机械化生产，切实提高农户粮食作物收入，助力农户摆脱收入不平等。     

Drug use

In “Drug Use,” Peter Reuter, a professor at the University of Maryland School of Public Affairs and Department of Criminology, examines substance abuse and addiction among welfare and low-income mothers. He describes the changing patterns of drug use in the general population. Reuter explains that drug use increased rapidly in the late 1970s, declined in the 1980s, and remained relatively flat in the 1990s. The patterns, however, are driven largely by changes in marijuana use. The pattern of frequent use of more dangerous drugs, such as cocaine, is somewhat different. The heavy use of cocaine—especially crack cocaine—peaked during the late 1980s. By the early 1990s, the number of new addicts had fallen dramatically, although not many heavy users discontinued their use. As a result, the stock of frequent users held constant through much of the 1990s and only recently began to decline as more users discontinued their use or died. His main data sources are the Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring (ADAM) program, the Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN), Monitoring the Future (MTF), and the National Household Survey of Drug Abuse (NHSDA).     

义务教育可及性对农民工居留意愿的影响

利用2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查（CMDS）数据，结合地级及以上城市特征数据，以义务教育阶段子女随迁作为义务教育可及性的代理变量，研究了义务教育可及性对农民工居留意愿的影响。研究发现：义务教育可及性显著促进了农民工的居留意愿；社会融入是义务教育可及性影响农民工居留意愿的一个重要机制；义务教育可及性对农民工居留意愿的影响在有小学阶段子女、低学历和跨省流动农民工群体中更大；相对于超大特大城市和中小城市，义务教育可及性对在大城市居留的农民工影响更明显。     

上海市残疾人社会救助现状与对策建议

利用第二次全国残疾人抽样调查数据,从残疾人对社会救助的主要需求和残疾人接受社会救助两个方面,对上海市残疾人基本生存状况进行分析,发现医疗、康复和生活救助是残疾人最为迫切的需求,存在残疾人低保覆盖面窄、救助水平低和特殊残疾人群体社会救助不足等问题。在此基础上,提出完善上海市残疾人社会救助制度的对策与建议。     

关于提高国家助学贷款还贷率的几点思考

国家助学贷款在几年的实施过程中,取得了可喜的成绩,但是由于部分贷款学生的信用缺失,使得助学贷款的还贷率不高,导致了银行对助学贷款信心不足、积极性不高,阻碍了国家助学贷款工作的顺利开展。从国家助学贷款主要涉及和受益的四个方面(即政府、高校、银行和学生)入手,分析并提出了一些有助于提高国家助学贷款还贷率的策略和途径。     

Using Split-Population Models to Examine Predictors of the Probability and Timing of Parity Progression

Survival models are widely used in demography to analyse the timing of events such as death or leaving school. However, for events such as marriage or childbirth that are not experienced by everyone, standard survival analysis conflates the speed of progressing to an event with the proportion that never experience the event. The problem can be overcome by applying a ‘split population’ or ‘cure’ survival time model which splits the population into those who eventually experience the event and those who do not, and determines the speed of progression for the former. This paper demonstrates the use of split-population models in examining variables which affect the propensity and timing of additional births. The data analysed are from a sample of women from the 2001 Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey (N = 4,611). We model the propensity and time to have another child given sex composition of existing children, number of siblings and age at first birth for three cohorts of women. The study finds evidence of a preference for a mixed-sex composition, and an increased propensity for women with two boys to try for a third child. Women in later cohorts tend to have more children if they themselves come from larger families. Age at first birth is strongly associated with the propensity to have another child and with the speed of progression.     

政府补贴、碳减排目标约束与工业企业低碳策略选择

工业企业是碳排放的主要贡献者,其低碳实践对于实现国家碳减排目标起着重要作用,探究不同类型政策如何影响企业低碳实践能够为制定积极有效的碳减排政策提供决策依据。以首个新旧动能转换综合试验区——山东省为例,构建偏最小二乘结构方程模型对山东省高耗能上市工业企业数据进行分析。实证结果表明:规模较大、行业碳排放强度较高、领导伦理型特质较强和具有国有产权特征的四类工业企业对各低碳策略选择的程度普遍较高,且更倾向选择能源低碳化和生产过程低碳化策略,其低碳策略的实施普遍受到政府补贴的支持作用,而与之相对特征的四类工业企业低碳策略选择程度普遍较低,且受到政府补贴作用相对较小;地方政府碳减排目标约束不是影响当前工业企业低碳策略选择的主要因素,其仅对个别低碳策略选择路径存在调节效应。     

Housing conditions and homelessness

In “Housing Conditions and Homelessness,” John C. Weicher, Assistant Secretary for Housing/Federal Housing Administration Commissioner at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, discusses trends in homelessness and housing conditions. His main sources of data are the American Housing Survey (AHS) and special surveys on homelessness. Because of the dearth of post-1996 data, he focuses on trends before welfare reform. In regard to homelessness, Weicher explains that few reliable data are available, so that estimates of the total number of homeless people are problematic. He estimates that about 600,000 people are homeless in an average week, and that the estimate can vary over the course of a year. The most recent national data are for 1996 and serve as a baseline from which to observe trends. At present, virtually no evidence indicates that homelessness has increased (or decreased) since the passage of welfare reform.     

Family values and labor force participation: Ireland in international perspective

The large-scale entry of married women into the workforce has been a striking feature of the post-war period, particularly in the United States, Britain, and other Anglo-Celtic nations. Theory implies that this should happen in all developed nations. But there is a counter-example: Ireland. To discover whether this is truly an exception, we analyze data from large, representative samples of Ireland, the USA, Britain, and Australia (pooled n=8,240). We find that Irish are not especially traditional; they are especially devout, but the difference persists when this is controlled. Strikingly, the behavior of Irish immigrants is indistinguishable from other Anglo-Celts in their new societies. Thus it seems that Irish exceptionalism arises from an institutional setting uniquely hostile to women’s employment. She is currently coordinating a multi-national research project assessing the extent of ethnic discrimination in different societies. She and Jonathan Kelley are continuing their long-run international, comparative project on economic culture with special reference to inequality. He and M.D.R. Evans conduct their omnibus International Social Science Surveys, which include as their International Survey of Economic Attitudes, their Bioethics surveys, the Australian National Social Science Survey, and others. They are completing a book on time use and subjective well-being in later life. She researches intergenerational social mobility and occupational careers with special reference to gender, and also studies socio-political attitudes and their sources, particularly using International Social Survey Program data.