Price controls, trade protectionism and political business cycles in the U.S. steel industry

The U.S. steel industry is subject to a microeconomic political business cycle resulting from U.S. Presidents designing protectionist policies on behalf of the steel industry; experiencing complaints from consumers and foreign producers as a result of the policy; modifying the policy which results in complaints from the steel industry; and finally, maneuvering policy back in favor of the industry to achieve re-election. Using a cointegrating vector error correction framework, this paper tests the hypothesized political business cycle for its effect on steel prices. We find that trade protectionism does not seem to have succeeded in its primary objective of supporting prices. By expending so much political capital on ineffective trade protection, the steel industry may have lost the opportunity to focus on more substantive issues that might have restrained factor cost and enhanced its competitive ability. The devolution of the steel industry, ironically, may have resulted from it's persistent pleas for protection. Political business cycles in the steel industry, with all its attendant negative consequences, would not occur if the steel industry did not continually lobby for protection.     

The role of standards in the policy debate on the EU-US trade agreement

In the context of the public policy debate, we explore firm-level characteristics that influence firms’ preferences related to alternatives to harmonize standards within the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). The options are the implementation of common standards, developed internationally or bilaterally, and mutual recognition. The empirical analysis is based on data from the German Standardization Panel. We identify three dimensions that determine firms’ preferences regarding the various harmonization solutions: (1) company-specific factors, such as size, industry and motives to apply standards, (2) the competitive environment, i.e. the position vis-à-vis other market participants, and (3) the technological environment, i.e. the dynamics of the market the company operates in.     

The impact of trade liberalisation on poverty and inequality: Evidence from CGE models

In this paper we carry out a systematic review of the evidence from CGE models regarding the effect of trade liberalisation on income inequality and poverty in developing countries. The evidence suggests quite strongly that trade liberalisation tends to reduce poverty, but is more likely to increase inequality than reduce it; however, the predicted effects are relatively small. Variation in the size and direction of effects can be explained by the choice of outcome measure, the fiscal response to liberalisation, the type of CGE model, and certain country characteristics – but not the method used to link the CGE model to the distribution of income.     

What accounts for China''s trade balance dynamics?

This paper proposes a structural VAR model which extends the frameworks of Hoffmaister and Roldós [Hoffmaister, A. W., & Roldós, J. E. (2001). The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries: Brazil and Korea. Journal of Macroeconomics, 23, 213–239] and Prasad [Prasad, E. S. (1999). International trade and the business cycle. Economic Journal, 109, 588–606]. The model is then used to analyse the sources of China's trade balance fluctuations in the period of 1985–2000. Efforts are made to distinguish the forces which underlie the long-run trend in trade balance from those with transitory impacts. The effects of four types of shock are examined—the foreign supply shock, the domestic supply shock, the relative demand shock and the nominal shock. Among other findings, two emerge as important. First, the movements in China's trade balance are largely the result of real shocks. Second, the Renminbi is undervalued, yet changes in the exchange rate bear little on the trade balance. Therefore, monetary measures would not suffice to redress China's trade ‘imbalance’.     

Retaliatory temporary trade barriers: New facts and patterns

This paper takes a fresh look into the role of Temporary Trade Barriers (TTBs) and whether they are introduced for strategic reasons. We construct a novel sectoral measure of retaliation using daily bilateral data on TTB responses in 1220 subsectors across a panel of 25 advanced and emerging economies over 1989–2015. We use this measure to present novel stylized facts and patterns suggesting that strategic considerations may be more important (in terms of intensity and frequency) than commonly understood from the existing literature, which has tended to ignore within-year responses. Our evidence indicates that retaliation actually often consists of responses across many sectors and indeed that same-sector retaliation is far from being the norm.     

对俄贸易在黑龙江经济增长中的作用的实证研究

对外贸易在经济增长中的作用一直以来都是经济学界研究的热点问题。本文利用1995—2007年黑龙江对俄贸易及GDP的年度经济数据,使用计量经济学的方法研究了对俄贸易在黑龙江经济增长中的作用。实证结果表明:在黑龙江经济增长中,对俄贸易的促进作用是显著的;进口对于经济增长的促进作用大于出口。     

The US–China trade war and Phase One agreement

The Trump administration changed US trade policy toward China in ways that will take years for researchers to sort out. This paper makes four specific contributions to that research agenda. The first is to carefully mark the timing, definitions, and scale of the products subject to the tariff changes affecting US–China trade from January 20, 2017 through January 20, 2021. One result was each country increasing its average duty on the other to rates of roughly 20 percent, with the new tariffs and counter-tariffs covering more than 50 percent of bilateral trade. The second contribution is to highlight two additional channels through which bilateral tariffs changed during this period that received less research attention. One tariff change is through product exclusions, another is trade remedy policies of antidumping and countervailing duties. The third contribution is to provide an initial exploration into why China fell more than 40 percent short of meeting the goods purchase commitments set out under the first year of the Phase One agreement. The last contribution is to consider additional trade policy actions—involving forced labor, export controls for reasons of national security or human rights, and reclassification of trade with Hong Kong—likely to affect US–China trade beyond the Trump administration.     

Trade openness and manufacturing growth in Malaysia

This study investigates the long-run relationship between trade openness and manufacturing growth and further assesses the causal relationship between these variables. Contrary to some scholars belief that at national level, openness does not contribute to growth in Malaysia, our sector specific analysis suggest otherwise. In this aspect, we believe that in any attempt to establish relationship between openness and growth, the analysis should be sector specific since it is more relevant as well as assures a meaningful insight for policy makers. The results suggest that in the long-run, trade openness is positively related to manufacturing growth in Malaysia. Furthermore, the results also suggest that openness should be viewed as the long term policy initiative for the sector to benefit. Therefore, the policy direction for Malaysian manufacturing sectors should focus on long term trade openness policies. Nevertheless, to ensure sustainability, emphasis should be placed on how (which manufacturing sub-sectors) or when openness is actually important. Importantly, policy makers and scholars should understand that leveraging the benefits of openness also depend on whether the liberalized sector has the comparative advantage.     

转变外贸增长方式下的政策调整分析

加入世界贸易组织以来,我国外贸伴随着全球化的不断升级而快速增长,但总体贸易格局以加工贸易为主要方式、外商投资企业为主要出口主体、中低技术机械电子类产品为主要出口商品类别的特征并未发生根本的变化。这种局面使得我国外贸顺差不断扩大,外部失衡严重,贸易摩擦日益增多,同时过高贸易占款也加大了国内流动性过剩和人民币升值压力。因此,要改变这种贸易格局,转变贸易增长方式,政府就必须不断深化对相关外贸政策组合的调整,引导这种转变。文章从转变外贸增长方式内涵出发,对各种政策调整的依据、目标、影响进行分析,从而提出优化政策组合的各种措施。     

Research Misconduct Definitions Adopted by U.S. Research Institutions

In 2000, the U.S. federal government adopted a uniform definition of research misconduct as fabrication, falsification, or plagiarism (FFP), which became effective in 2001. Institutions must apply this definition of misconduct to federally-funded research to receive funding. While institutions are free to adopt definitions of misconduct that go beyond the federal standard, it is not known how many do. We analyzed misconduct policies from 183 U.S. research institutions and coded them according to thirteen different types of behavior mentioned in the misconduct definition. We also obtained data on the institution’s total research funding and public vs. private status, and the year it adopted the definition. We found that more than half (59%) of the institutions in our sample had misconduct policies that went beyond the federal standard. Other than FFP, the most common behaviors included in definitions were “other serious deviations” (45.4%), “significant or material violations of regulations” (23.0%), “misuse of confidential information” (15.8%), “misconduct related to misconduct” (14.8%), “unethical authorship other than plagiarism” (14.2%), “other deception involving data manipulation” (13.1%), and “misappropriation of property/theft” (10.4%). Significantly more definitions adopted in 2001 or later went beyond the federal standard than those adopted before 2001 (73.2% vs. 26.8%), and significantly more definitions adopted by institutions in the lower quartile of total research funding went beyond the federal standard than those adopted by institutions in the upper quartiles. Public vs. private status was not significantly associated with going beyond the federal standard.     

The impact of the EU sugar trade reform on poor households in developing countries: A general equilibrium analysis

We use a modified version of the applied general equilibrium model GTAP, called GTAP_MH, to evaluate the impact of a reduction in the EU's support price for sugar on income distribution of African households. For LDC countries, non-ACP but participant in the EBA initiative a +2% change is indicated in term of income generation across all ten social strata identified within GTAP_MH framework, with positive percentage changes in supply prices at household level of endowment commodities, and positive percentage changes in price indices for private household expenditures. The big losers will be those countries that would no longer be able to compete at an international level as a result of the lost preferences.     

Promoting social Europe? The development of European youth unemployment policies

Since the beginning of the millennium, the institutions of the European Union have intensified their political efforts to combat youth employment. Youth‐specific policy initiatives were launched after the financial and economic crisis of 2008, and the overall subsequent rise of unemployment rates among young people. In this article, we analyse and assess these developments on the basis of an analysis of European policy documents and interviews. Our conclusions are twofold. One, we argue that the Europe 2020 Strategy and its flagship initiatives devoted to youth do not constitute a new policy field or approach, but are rather the outcome of an incrementalist logic of policy development. Two, the European youth strategy is clearly committed to activation, and it pushes policy developments towards a minimalist policy approach of precarious protection. Both developments are explained by the actor constellations and path dependencies of the European policy arena.     

Estimates of trade-related adjustment costs in Syria

The scope and complexity of international trading arrangements in the Middle East, as well as their spotty historical record of success, underscore the urgent need for an adequate understanding of the relative costs and benefits of participation in preferential trading arrangements and, more generally, of changes in the domestic import regimes. This paper seeks to address this problem by providing estimates of the adjustment costs associated with two broad classes of hypothetical trade policy scenarios for Syria: participation in the proposed EU-Syria Association Agreement, and border tax-related changes affecting the domestic import regime. We find that the revenue consequences of the first scenario are likely to be low if an appropriate stepwise implementation of the agreement can be ensured; our analysis of the second scenario suggests that all border taxes can be eliminated, and the number of tariff bands reduced, while ensuring revenue neutrality, if a VAT of a reasonable size is introduced.     

略论中印经贸关系若干问题

中印经贸关系是两国关系中最具积极意义的领域,但随着两国经贸交流的快速发展,也产生了各种问题,其中较为突出的包括贸易非均衡问题和政治因素对经贸关系的干扰等.克服目前的障碍需要双方既有处理眼前问题的合适措施,也需要建立具有战略前瞻性的长远看法.     

Automobile prices and protection: The U.S.-Japan trade restraint

We examine the effects of the U.S.-Japan trade restraint on automobile prices and quality upgrading, for both Japanese imports and American small cars. From April 1981 to April 1984 the suggested retail price of all Japanese models increased by 15.8 percent, or 5.3 percent per year. We find that nearly the entire amount of this rise can be explained by the upgrading of individual models. This upgrading may benefit consumers who would purchase a luxury import in any case, but harms those who desire the basic imports. In addition to upgrading, we conclude that a second cost of the trade restraint has been to prevent the yen depreciation from being passed onto American consumers, in terms of lower imported auto prices. For U.S. small cars we find a 9.1 percent rise in the suggested retail price, or 3 percent per year, with a fraction of this amount due to model upgrading. If the yen depreciation had led to lower import prices without the trade restraint, then we expect that U.S. auto prices would have been lower, too.     

Growth,inequality and poverty in Vietnam: How did trade liberalisation help the poor, 2002–2008

Using the Vietnamese Living Standards Surveys for 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2008, we explore how provinces with differential access to trade liberalisation reforms differ in their pro-poor growth performance in Vietnam. Using both non-parametric and parametric estimation, we find strong, robust evidence of pro-poor growth in provinces with greater exposure to trade liberalisation. Using censored and uncensored regressions, the study also shows that increased wages play a critical role in this outcome. Our analysis enables identification of the core mechanisms through which the poor materialise their gains from trade-driven growth in a transition economy.