Safety nets in (the) crisis: The case of Greece in the 2010s

This paper deals with the question of how the social safety net in Greece responded to, and was transformed by, the social emergency of the 2010s. The outbreak of the Eurozone crisis caught Greek welfare woefully unprepared for what was to come. Thereafter, as the recession fuelled the “demand” for social protection, the austerity reduced its “supply.” Nevertheless, this is not a straightforward case of austerity predictably causing welfare retrenchment or dismantling. Stringent budgets and policy inertia did result in reduced provision and diminished capacity to protect. Yet significant progress towards a less parochial and more effective social safety net also took place. The paper is an attempt to bring out the complexity and contradictions of recent developments. It concludes that the system of social protection that has emerged from the crisis is undoubtedly leaner, less robust in core policy areas such as pensions and health, but also more effective in protecting against extreme poverty than ever before.     

How Slovakia has kept the confidence fairy

Since its creation as a country in 1993, Slovakia's average real growth rate has been not only the highest among Eurozone countries, it has been the highest in the European Union. And unlike most “peripheral” Eurozone countries, most recently (March/April, 2013) Cyprus and Slovenia, it has not suffered from significant capital flight. We provide some clues as to why this is so. In contrast to many of the post-1989 Central and Eastern European (CEE) “transition” economies, as well as the troubled five “GIPSI” countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy), Slovakia has kept unit costs competitive, fostered a sound banking system, and managed its monetary and fiscal policy responsibly. Both public and private debt is relatively low and largely funded from internal savings. In short, Slovakia offers lessons for many CEE countries as well as Eurozone countries struggling to restore internal and external balance.     

The effect of the rescue plans and the need for policies to increase economic growth

This paper evaluates the economic impact of discretionary fiscal and monetary actions taken in the United States during 2020 and 2021. The fiscal actions are The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, or the “CARES” Act, passed in March 2020; The Consolidated Appropriations Act, passed in December 2020; and The American Rescue Plan Act, passed in March 2021. The paper focuses on the impact of the “economic impact payments” that underlie these fiscal actions. The paper also examines discretionary monetary policy actions taken during the same period. The overall implication is that there is a need to return to policies that increase economic growth and stability, including rules-based fiscal and monetary policy, rather than to continue with these one-time discretionary actions.     

Pre- versus post-crisis central banking in Qatar

In the years before the global financial crisis of 2008–2010, Qatar experienced a huge build-up of liquidity surplus in the banking system, mainly driven by surging net capital inflows. This paper identifies various sources of interbank liquidity in Qatar and discusses the various implications of structural primary liquidity surplus for the money market in particular and the economy at large. The paper attempts to evaluate the Qatar Central Bank policy making and conduct during the pre- and post-crisis periods within a framework of the Austrian monetary overinvestment theories, and concludes that the central bank had forcibly committed several forced monetary policy mistakes, which resulted in a breakdown in the interest rate channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This led to the inability of the central bank to control the interbank interest rate and to an accelerating inflation rate during the pre-crisis years. In contrast, a dramatic change in the central bank's monetary policy framework and a deliberate monetary policy mistake on behalf of the central bank resulted in a restoration of the interest rate channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, stabilization of the interbank interest rate close to the central bank's policy rate and a sharp deceleration in the inflation rate in the post-crisis period. The paper concludes by offering brief policy recommendations.     

Are there monetary clusters in the Eurozone? The impact of ECB policy

This paper analyses what effects the monetary policy of the European Central Bank have on the economic activity of Eurozone countries. We identify groups of countries which exhibit different economic responses to monetary policy and the factors driving such spatial differences. We distinguish three periods, spanning from 2001 to 2017 and examine conventional as well as unconventional monetary policies in different economic backgrounds of expansion and crisis. We find problems of spatially asymmetric transmission of monetary policy in the period 2008M10–2014M12 and note that different spatial responses might operate in favour of monetary policy or be indifferent to this policy.     

Russia and Regional Institutions in the Asia-Pacific Region

Until the past few years, post-Soviet Russia devoted insufficient attention to multilateral processes of cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region (APR). This situation gradually started to change in the period leading up to and during Russia’s stint as chair of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation in 2012. An additional stimulus to more active Russian participation in institutions of regional cooperation in the APR was implementation of the policy of the “turn to the East,” which became especially urgent after the crisis of 2014 in Russia’s relations with the West. As it happened, however, Russia strengthened its ties with multilateral institutions in the APR at exactly the time when many mechanisms of cooperation were in crisis and weakened by tensions between China and the United States in the region and also by competing regional projects promoted by these powers.     

A Test of the Relationship between Monetary Growth Uncertainty and Economic Growth in China： 1980-2008

我国货币增长不确定性的根源可以划分为货币政策冲击和宏观经济冲击两个层面,通过检验我国货币增长不确定性与经济增长之间的关系,结果显示：货币增长不确定性主要由宏观经济冲击所引致;1998年以前的货币增长不确定性比较剧烈,1998之后的货币增长不确定性明显减弱;由货币政策冲击导致的货币增长不确定性能够有效地促进经济增长,这意味着货币政策调控的有效性;但2003年以来,由宏观经济冲击导致的货币增长不确定性对经济增长起到了抑制作用,这说明以国际金融危机为代表的经济冲击对我国经济稳定增长产生了显著的消极影响,需对此进行积极的国家经济风险预警和防范。     

Cross-Atlantic implications of the new US policy mix

This paper will assess implications of shifting policy mix in the US for global imbalances and adjustment, with a focus on the euro area, using the European Commission’s QUEST model. Following early market euphoria after the elections on the account of expected “decisive” pro-market policies, uncertainty regarding the composition and timing of the new administration's economic policies has been the norm. Early proposals included a substantial fiscal stimulus which, combined with a tightening monetary stance, was expected to drive up long-run interest rates and the dollar, leading to widening global imbalances and potential instability. Today the expansionary impact of the fiscal plans is the subject of a heated debate while monetary policy continues to tighten steadily and risks related to a protectionist trade agenda remain pronounced. Contrary to initial expectations, real interest rates and the dollar have weakened, while global imbalances persist. Addressing policy and structural needs in the US – and abroad – is a necessary condition to rein in global imbalances. In this context, this paper will discuss the role of the G20/G7 to promote a coordinated policy approach and in particular to what extent the G20/G7 can deal with the transition from crisis management to the balancing of heterogeneous preferences among the policy makers to promote global growth and stability.     

Monetary policy and its transmission mechanisms in Eritrea

The main purpose of this study is to identify the best practices of monetary policy implementation in the Eritrean economy. As such, the paper examines what kind of monetary policy and transmission mechanisms are relevant to the Eritrean economy. It also addresses which channels are effective and which are not and why. Vector Autoregressive modelling is employed over the study period 1996Q1–2008Q4. This paper addresses the argument that the bank lending is the sole functioning channel in low income economies. We find that interest rate and official exchange rate channels are inoperative. However, effective exchange rate and credit channels exist through the black foreign exchange market and credit issued to the government sector. The main policy implication of this study is that the Bank of Eritrea might be able to control inflation through manipulating the reserve requirement ratio.     

Language,symbols, and the Nebraska Councils of Defense

The issue of language within the United States continues to be a matter of contention. Southwestern states, such as Arizona and California, currently wrestle with matters of English as the official language and setting limits upon bilingual education. Plaintiffs and defendants in court cases will communicate emotionally, forcefully and articulately, before the bench and in the public media, defending the moral and constitutional aspects of their beliefs. In these exchanges, the management of symbols most assuredly will be utilized to provide legitimacy. These are not the first incidents relating to language concerns and the manipulation of symbols. During and after World War I, the war to “make the world safe for democracy,” the issue of state sanctioned language was already being considered. This study will examine the issue of language, and the use of three classifications of symbols—myths, metaphors and scenarios—to evaluate the paradoxical attitudes and actions of the Nebraska State and County Councils of Defense during an era of perceived crisis.     

The greying of the baby boom in the United States: framing the policy debate

Issues surrounding the retirement of the large post-World War II "baby boom" generation in the United States are often framed either in terms of impending intergenerational crisis or as an event to which the United States can gradually adjust. This paper examines these two perspectives as they compete to define US social security policy. It suggests that the intergenerational crisis perspective functions primarily as an ideological argument and strategy for de-structuring social welfare policy. In contrast, the gradual adjustment perspective provides a stronger basis for planning social security and other policy responses to the ageing of the baby boom. However, it is not informed by a clear social vision and has not, as yet, responded sufficiently to the potential divisiveness which may accompany changing demography. Also, to date, relatively little attention has been paid to the diverse social and economic circumstances of baby boomers and the implications of this diversity for retirement planning.     

后金融危机时期美国的货币政策对中非经济合作的启示

量化宽松的货币政策是后金融危机时期美国货币政策的主基调,自2009年3月份以来,美国先后推出了两轮量化宽松的货币政策,即QE1与QE2。美国量化宽松的货币政策所造成的国际大宗商品价格上涨、美元贬值、贸易摩擦以及热钱流入等问题,对全球经济尤其是中国与非洲各国经济带来了非常大的冲击,这对于中非各国促进双边贸易、开展本币互换试点、加快中非经贸合作区建设、加强金融监管合作以及推进货币整合的基础性研究等方面有着重要的启示。     

Macroeconomic asymmetry in the Eurozone before and after the Global Financial Crisis: An appraisal of the role of the ECB

The launch of the euro in 1999 was assumed to enhance macroeconomic convergence among EMU economies. We test this hypothesis from a comparative perspective, by calculating different indices to measure the degree of macroeconomic dispersion within the Eurozone, the UK and the USA (1999–2019). We use common factor models to produce a single index for each monetary area out of different measures of dispersion. These indices can be used to inform on the degree of optimality of a monetary area. Our results show that macroeconomic dispersion in the Eurozone increased notably even before 2007 and it took significantly longer to return to pre-crisis levels, as compared to the UK and the USA. The paper shows the critical role played by the ECB’s asset purchases programmes in reducing macroeconomic divergences among EMU member states since 2015.     

公共政策变迁间断-平衡模型的修正及应用--兼论新中国科研政策变迁的渐进与突变规律

公共政策变迁间断—平衡分析框架是以美国三权分立和联邦制政治制度为基础构建的,原分析框架限定于考察美国公共政策变迁趋势。尝试从适用条件、理论假设、变迁过程和根本原因等维度对间断—平衡分析框架予以修正,将修正后分析框架的适用条件扩大为稳定的政治制度结构,同时用修正后的分析框架考察新中国建立以来科研政策变迁的总体规律性。这样就达致了两个目的：一是修正和检验公共政策变迁间断—平衡分析框架;二是考察新中国建立以来科研政策变迁趋势,并为解释公共政策变迁提供新的理论工具。     

Second‐Generation Immigrants? The “2.5 Generation” in the United States*

Objective. This article takes issue with the way that second‐generation immigrants have been traditionally defined. In most studies, respondents are considered to be “second generation” if they are born in the United States and if at least one of their parents was born outside the United States. This article considers whether the experiences and outcomes of those with one U.S.‐born parent and one foreign‐born parent (the “2.5 generation”) are different from those with no U.S.‐born parents (the “2.0 generation”) and those with two native‐born parents (the “third generation”). Methods. The article analyzes data from the March Current Population Survey (CPS) from 1999 to 2001. Results. The evidence indicates that the 2.5 generation is a numerically significant population, and that it varies from other groups in age structure, racial identification, educational attainment, and income. Conclusions. In studying the U.S.‐born children of immigrants, scholars should avoid lumping together the 2.5 generation with those who have no native‐born parents. The members of the 2.5 generation also should be treated as distinct from those born in the United States to two native‐born parents.     

Money and Swedish inflation

Analysing the role of money for Swedish inflation, we apply a single equation “P-Star” model and a structural VECM for the period of the late 1980s to the beginning of 2005. Against the background of theoretical and empirical considerations, we find that money – when measured by the “price gap” or, alternatively, the “money overhang” – had a statistically significant impact on future price movements. The results suggest that money might have to play a more prominent role in monetary policy making in Sweden compared with the status quo.     

The Racial Structure of Economic Inequality in the United States: Understanding Change and Continuity in an Era of “Great Divergence”*

The “great divergence” of America's rich from its middle class and poor has led some observers to see a country increasingly stratified by income and wealth, more so than by race. In this article, the first in a two‐part series, we argue that this conclusion overlooks the persistent importance of the racial “structure” of inequality. A decomposition of income inequality between 1980 and 2010 using the Theil Index shows that inequality between racial groups accounts for a rising share of total income inequality over this period nationally and in most states. We also demonstrate that within‐state trends in the between‐race component of inequality are not fully accounted for by trends in income inequality and racial diversity per se. These findings lay the groundwork for a forthcoming companion piece in Social Science Quarterly that shows that between‐race inequality is strongly linked to welfare policy outcomes in the United States.     

Failure to Mourn “White Nativism”: Impact of Deportation on Hispanic American–Born Children and Mixed-Status Families

Contemporary American immigration policy since 1996 has sought to control the entrance of “illegal immigrants” while also facilitating their deportation, thereby dividing mixed-status families. American children born to non-native parents are rendered second-class citizens. Such policies claim to preserve the American economic and social order. The author posits that American immigration reform needs to be viewed in the context of legal statutes and social policies that are embedded in a complex, unconscious intrapsychic defense system of “White nativism,” aimed to avert the mourning of the “White native” cultural identity. Deportation and immigration reform is therefore a “White native,” legal, and policy-driven annihilatory tool, designed to extricate the American-born Hispanic child from the United States in order to avert the inevitable transformation of the “White natives” collective external group symbolic representations, or reservoirs, that are linked to individual and collective affective mother–me experiences.     

From pension funds to piggy banks: (Perverse) consequences of the Stability and Growth Pact since the crisis

As part of their strategy for economic and monetary union, European governments committed themselves to fiscal discipline – particularly by placing limits on annual deficits and on public debt. Subsequently, and as they sought to respond to the “current crisis”, they embraced the view that only if public finances were kept under control would sustainable recovery be possible. Rules of fiscal governance were strengthened. To help them meet these rules, the governments of many member States of the European Union made changes to their pension systems or to funds they had established specifically to pay the costs of population ageing. The intention was not to cut retirement benefits or to improve the efficiency of the relevant pension schemes and institutions. Rather, it was to free up resources immediately. Funded pension schemes and pension funds were treated like “piggy banks” that were raided when times became hard. Moreover, the policies pursued succeeded in meeting their objectives only because the system of national accounts according to which outcomes are judged does not recognize the way in which most of the fiscal gains are matched by future fiscal liabilities.