Private Polls and Presidential Policymaking: Reagan as a Facilitator of Change

Did the Reagan administration disregard majority will when craftingits policy initiatives? Did it cater to a narrow partisan constituencyinstead? The answers to these questions will help with an assessmentof Jacobs and Shapiro’s (2000b) hypothesis that presidentssince the late 1970s have used private White House survey researchas a tool to manipulate or assuage centrist public opinion whilemeeting the policy demands of their partisan core supporters,resulting in a decline in presidential responsiveness to majoritywill. Using the actual surveys administered by Richard Wirthlin(Reagan’s pollster) between 1981 and 1983, this articlewill demonstrate the level of consistency between majority opinionon 129 policy issues and Reagan’s behavior through 1984,and it will explore the conditions under which the presidentwas more or less likely to respond to public preferences. Thedata reveal that the Reagan administration was constrained bythe popular will in predicable ways: if the policy issues wereabout domestic concerns, highly popular, and visible in themedia, then the administration acted in line with public preferencesmore than 70 percent of the time. Further, Reagan and his adviserswere selective in responding to party activists: they championedissues drawn from their conservative ideological agenda thatfit with the current tide in public opinion, while sidesteppingother issues dear to party activists that encountered strongmajority resistance. While I do not contest Jacobs and Shapiro’s(2000b) important observation that presidents often use surveyresearch to "craft talk" in an attempt to channel the publicdebate, the evidence here highlights how the president nonethelessremains constrained by the popular will, at least on domesticissues.     

Nonstandard Work and Marital Instability: Evidence From the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth

This article replicated and extended Harriet Presser's (2000) investigation of the linkages between nonstandard work and marital instability. We reexplored this question using data from a sample of 2,893 newlywed couples from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) and using different analytic techniques. In contrast to Presser, we found that the key dimension of husbands' and wives' employment was nonemployment. Similar to Presser, we found that wives' working of fixed night shifts increased the risk of divorce, driven by the experience in marriages over 5 years in duration. However, we did not replicate Presser's finding that the effect is significant only among households with children; rather, wives' fixed night shifts were associated with divorce only among those without children.     

Voters and Values in the 2004 Election

A poorly devised exit poll question undermined meaningful analysisof voters’ concerns in the 2004 presidential election.Twenty-two percent of voters picked "moral values" from a listof "issues" describing what mattered most in their vote, morethan selected any other item. Various commentators have misinterpretedthis single data point to conclude that moral values are anascendant political issue and to credit conservative Christiangroups with turning George W. Bush’s popular vote defeatin 2000 into his three million–vote margin of victoryin 2004. We suggest, rather, that while morals and values arecritical in informing political judgments, they represent personalcharacteristics and ill-defined policy preferences far morethan any discrete political issue. First by conflating moralsand values and then by further conflating characteristics andissues, the exit poll’s "issues" list distorted our understandingof the 2004 election. In this article, we examine the flawsin the 2004 National Election Pool exit poll’s "most importantissue" question and explore the presumed rising electoral importanceof moral values and the conservative Christians who overwhelminglyselected this item. Using national exit poll data from 1980through 2004 and other national surveys, we find that the moralvalues item on the issues list cannot properly be viewed asa discrete issue or set of closely related issues; that itsimportance to voters has not grown over time; and that whencontrolled for other variables, it ranks low on the issues listin predicting 2004 vote choices. The aggregated exit poll dataalso show that the voting behavior of conservative Christiansis relatively stable over time, and these voters were not primarilyresponsible for Bush’s improvement in 2004 over 2000.     

Exploring articulation in internal activism and public relations theory: A case study

This paper answers Dozier and Lauzen’s (2000) call for critical theoretical examinations of activism and public relations to provide new perspectives and avoid the paradox inherent in organizational-level analyses. It also fills a literature gap by examining a case of internal activism, Girl Scout members protesting the use of palm oil in Girl Scout cookies, thus blurring organizational boundaries and rejecting Us/Other dichotomies. The basic precepts of the cultural-economic model (Curtin & Gaither, 2005, 2007) are expanded to provide greater heuristic power to the model (Curtin, Gaither, & Ciszek) and to delineate a more nuanced understanding of the public relations/activism relationship.     

Problems Relating to Declining Response Rates to Social Survey Research in Japan: Trends After 2000

Abstract: Sociologists in Japan recognize that the circumstances under which social survey research is conducted have been deteriorating and have become critical since 2000. Social survey research is understood as a large-scale survey that mainly draws samples by a random sampling method, using a questionnaire as a measurement tool. The crises of social survey research are summarized as following: (1) the increasing difficulty of conducting accurate sampling and (2) the decline in response rates to drawn samples (planned samples). This paper focuses on the decline in response rates to social survyes by examining recent trends in relation to social surveys conducted by the Japanese government and local government (prefectures). In summary, there has been a landslidedecline of the response rate between 2005 and 2006 in surveys conducted by Japanese government. This decline was thought to mainly come from the declining of response rates among the elderly and women, groups that had previously had high response rates. This seems to be the result of the growing level of the crime involving the abuse of the personal information. However, there did not appear to be a serious decline in the response rate for surveys conducted by local governments. Given that it is not easy to restore response rates, it is important to develop research methods and techniques to cope with the decline. Further, informing respondents of the purpose of the research and its benefit to may help raise response rates.     

Gauging the Impact of Growing Nonresponse on Estimates from a National RDD Telephone Survey

Declining contact and cooperation rates in random digit dial(RDD) national telephone surveys raise serious concerns aboutthe validity of estimates drawn from such research. While researchin the 1990s indicated that nonresponse bias was relativelysmall, response rates have continued to fall since then. Thecurrent study replicates a 1997 methodological experiment thatcompared results from a "Standard" 5-day survey employing thePew Research Center’s usual methodology with results froma "Rigorous" survey conducted over a much longer field periodand achieving a significantly higher response rate. As withthe 1997 study, there is little to suggest that unit nonresponsewithin the range of response rates obtained seriously threatensthe quality of survey estimates. In 77 out of 84 comparableitems, the two surveys yielded results that were statisticallyindistinguishable. While the "Rigorous" study respondents tendedto be somewhat less politically engaged, they did not reportconsistently different behaviors or attitudes on other kindsof questions. With respect to sample composition, the Standardsurvey was closely aligned with estimates from the U.S. Censusand other large government surveys on most variables. We extendour analysis of nonresponse to include comparisons with thehardest-to-reach respondents and with respondents who terminatedthe interview prior to completion.     

Editor's Note

This issue inaugurates AAPOR’s relationship with OxfordUniversity Press as publisher of Public Opinion Quarterly. During2003,     

Contract, Charity, and Honorable Entitlement: Social Citizenship and the 1967 Abortion Act in Northern Ireland after the Good Friday Agreement

This article investigates the extent to which women’spolitical, civil, and social citizenship rights in the post–Good Friday Agreement (1998)period in Northern Ireland can be expanded. It argues that theGood Friday Agreement, as a framework document, offers someopportunity for the expansion of women’s political andcivil citizenship rights. Legislative attempts to extend the1967 Abortion Act (United Kingdom) to Northern Ireland and recentefforts to have the existing law governing abortion in NorthernIreland clarified through the judiciary are examined to demonstratethe continued denial of women’s social citizenship rights.Various routes to address Northern Irish women’s accessto abortion services are assessed, and it is argued that extendingthe 1967 Abortion Act to Northern Ireland, a long-standing demandof pro-choice women’s groups, will insufficiently facilitatewomen’s access to social citizenship rights. Consistentwith recent directions in social policy scholarship, this articleargues that a recognition of agency as an outcome of individualand collective social action is necessary to access abortionand women’s social citizenship rights in the post–GoodFriday Agreement period in Northern Ireland.     

Constructing Scale/Contesting Scale: Women's Movement and Rescaling Politics in Quebec

Scalar shifts in public capacities and responsibilities arean important element of the way states have been restructuringin North America and in Europe. Women’s movements respondto these changes in various ways, including the rescaling ofcollective action. This article focuses on the rising importanceof the (subprovincial) region in Québec women’smovement politics to understand how new scales of action areconstituted or granted a renewed importance by women’smovements. Drawing on theoretical contributions from the humangeography literature on scale, state rescaling, and scalar politics,I show how the region has been materially and discursively constructedby Québec women’s movement actors as a legitimateand relevant scale for feminist politics. This has involvedan intricate and dynamic relationship with two different stateprojects of downward rescaling. Although it provided some realopportunities, it has also created difficulties and dilemmasfor women’s movement actors, who have also contested theprimacy of the region in Québec government’s newscalar arrangements.     

Campaign for education in democratic citizenship, Guadalajara, Mexico

Since the time of the Mexican Revolution that began in 1910(views on when it finished vary between 1917 and 1940) Mexicohad been ruled by the same, single political party, the PRI(the Partido Revolucionario Institucional, meaning the ‘InstitutionalRevolutionary Party’), until it finally lost a presidentialelection in 2000 to the right-wing Party of National Action,after seventy-one years in power. The PRI had stayed in powerthrough a mixture of ‘clientelism’, ‘populism’,‘corruption’ and the rigging of elections and helda tight control on the whole of Mexican society. In its effortsto bring about social change, from the 1990s onwards Mexicansociety began to concentrate its efforts on challenging thedominance held by the PRI at the national, federal level. Adebate on the ‘transition to democracy’ took offin both academic circles and social and civil organizationslooking for ways to create a new and different kind of relationshipbetween government and society. It was in that context that,as with many other civil organizations in Mexico, we in IMDEC¹considered how we might best open up more spaces for the cultureand practice of democracy and motivate citizens to activelycampaign on those issues impacting on their daily lives. Theissue, however, was how to engage this participation differently,in a more festive atmosphere, breaking with formal traditions,in such a way that people would feel better motivated to becomeinvolved in actively addressing the problems that surroundedthem. In this article, I want to share an experience, whichtook place between April and August 1994, before the local electionsof that year, based on a Campaign for Education in DemocraticCitizenship.     

New information communication technologies and the development of a children's 'community of interest'

This paper is concerned with the potential of new InformationCommunication Technologies as a means of furthering a children’s‘community of interest’. A ‘community of interest’is taken from Raymond Williams’ concept of people formingcommunities not around place but around specific ‘interests’.I wish in this paper to explore the forms and tensions of achildren’s ‘community of interest’ that mightbe facilitated around ICTs in general and the Internet in particular.The paper draws on community development literature around thepotentials and use of ICTs as a means of developing communities.The paper highlights these potentials but also investigatesthe obstacles that a children’s online ‘communityof interest’ may confront.     

The Polls-Trends: Arab and Muslim Americans and Islam in the aftermath of 9/11

The terrorist attacks against the United States on September11, 2001, fueled widespread concern and speculation about mountingIslamophobic sentiment among Americans in response to the events.To monitor developments in opinions about Muslims and Arabs(both living in the United States and abroad) and attitudestoward the Islamic faith, survey organizations began to assessmore regularly Americans’ attitudes on these topics. Ianalyze developments in public sentiment about Arab and MuslimAmericans and Islam in the age of the war on terror using availablepublic opinion data. The data analyses in this study suggestthat Americans possess lingering resentment and reservationsabout Arab and Muslim Americans. The evidence also reveals lowlevels of awareness about basic elements of Islam but growinganxiety about Islam’s (especially Islamic fundamentalism’s)compatibility with Western values of tolerance, acceptance,and civility. Some of the sharpest movement in opinion dynamicswe observe is in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks,but opinion levels stabilize shortly thereafter. Monitoringthese developments as the war on terror continues is crucial.     

The Compassion Strategy: Race and the Gender Gap in Campaign 2000

Recent studies have shown that social "compassion" issues, andnot those directly linked to women’s interests, seem todrive the gender gap in presidential vote choice. Some of thesecompassion issues are associated with the plight of racial minoritiesin the media and in the minds of average citizens. Drawing ontheories of gender role socialization, we predict that traditionalpartisan stands on racial issues may help to explain the gendergap. Specifically, we hypothesize that the gap emerges becausemen and women react differently to cues about how compassionatecandidates are toward vulnerable social groups. In one experiment,we manipulate news information regarding George W. Bush’scommitment to blacks versus women. The gender gap is maximizedwhen Bush takes the traditional Republican stance, while itis reduced significantly when Bush espouses a more moderateposition. The gender gap is unaffected by variation in the positionthat Bush takes on women’s issues. In another experiment,we also find that the gender gap emerges when traditional partisanappeals are racialized. Finally, exposure to the 2000 RepublicanNational Convention, with its message of racial inclusion, boostedevaluations of Bush among women but not men.     

PROMISED CONTRIBUTIONS TO CHARITY AND MAIL SURVEY RESPONSES: REPLICATION WITH EXTENSION

The efficacy of four types of incentives for stimulating mailsurvey response rates was examined against a no-incentive controlgroup. Two of the incentives were enclosed personal cash rewards(25ø and $1), and two were promised rewards. Of the latter,one was an impersonal reward, the promise of a $1 contributionto a charity of the respondent's choice, and one a personalreward, the opportunity to win a $200 cash prize. As hypothesized,the personal cash rewards generated response rates that weresignificantly higher than that of the control group. Also ashypothesized, the charity-incentive group produced a responserate that was not significantly different from the control group.Discontinuation of the use of charity incentives should be seriouslyconsidered by future researchers. In contrast, the cash prizeincentive yielded a significantly greater response than thecontrol group, as expected, and was on par with the 25øgroup. Additional investigation of the use of cash prize incentivesis recommended.     

Likely (and Unlikely) Voters and the Assessment of Campaign Dynamics

Only in recent years has the "likely voter" technology beenextended to polls well in advance of an election. In the caseof the 2000 U.S. presidential election, CNN/USA Today/Galluptracking polls indicated considerable fluctuations in likelyvoter preferences, greater than among the larger pool of registeredvoters surveyed. This article explores how Gallup’s likelyvoter model exaggerates the reported volatility of voter preferencesduring the campaign. Much of the reported variation in candidatepreference reported by Gallup in that election is not due toactual voter shifts in preference but rather to changes in thecomposition of Gallup’s likely voter pool. The findingshighlight dangers of relying on samples of likely voters whenpolling well before Election Day.     

Diversification and win rate in NLRB certification elections

This research examined industrial diversification patterns and win rates within the 1977–1979, 1983–1985 and 1992–1994 periods for all NLRB certification elections of the 30 most active unions in 1977–1979. We found significant change in diversification and little change in average win rates over the study period. The general trend was less total diversification and more unrelated diversification in 1992–1994 relative to 1983–1985 and 1977–1979. Total diversification and election frequency had no impact on win rates. However, related diversification had a significant positive influence on union win rates for elections recorded outside unions’ core organizing industries.     

"A Bastion of Sanity in a Crazy World": A Local Feminist Movement and the Reconstitution of Scale, Space, and Place in an Eastern German City

This article examines the development of the local women’smovement in one city in eastern Germany since German unificationin 1990. Utilizing a framework that attends to issues of scale,space, and place reveals how this women’s movement hasboth participated in and benefited from the downward scalingof women’s mobilizations in the immediate postunificationperiod. Feminist activists and organizations contributed tothe constitution of the city as a place defined by its emphasison egalitarian values and high degrees of state interventionin gender inequality and to the emergence of the city as partof a transnational space tied as much to Sweden as to Germany.Through this reimagination of the scale, space, and place ofthe city, the women’s movement was able to position itselfas a legitimate and important part of the life of the city andto successfully collaborate with local state offices and institutionsto secure funding for women’s organizations and pass legislationto protect women from discrimination and abuse.     

Public relations and sport in promotional culture

This paper argues that by examining a central feature of contemporary culture, new insights about public relations practice can be gained. Concepts of spectacle, ‘mega-events’, media events, celebrity, politics and lifestyle are highlighted. The paper blends various disciplinary sources and themes and links to the work of Curtin and Gaither, Hodges and Pieczka [Curtin, P.A. & Gaither, T.K. (2005) ’Privileging identity, difference and power: the circuit of culture as a basis for public relations theory’, Public relations review 17 (2), 91-115; Hodges, C. (2006). Relaciones humanas: The potential for public relations practitioners as cultural intermediaries in Mexico City. Unpublished doctoral thesis. University of Bournemouth; Pieczka, M. (2006). Promotional work: The case of PR consultancy in the UK 1995–2000. Unpublished doctoral thesis. University of Stirling] all of whom have explored Bourdieu's concept of ‘cultural intermediary’ in relation to the role of public relations.     

THE EFFECT OF MONETARY INCENTIVES AND FOLLOW-UP MAILINGS ON THE RESPONSE RATE AND RESPONSE QUALITY IN MAIL SURVEYS

The joint and comparative effects of the use of monetary incentivesand follow-up mailings were examined in a mail survey of suburbanWashington, DC cable television subscribers. Four experimentalgroups received monetary incentives enclosed with the firstmailing only ($0.25, $0.50, $1.00, or $2.00) and three follow-upmailings. These groups were compared with each other and againsta control group that did not receive an incentive. The resultsindicated that the response rate from the first mailing increasedsignificantly as the incentive amount increased from zero to$0.25, and from $0.25 to $1.00. Four mailings without an incentiveproduced a higher response rate than a single mailing with anincentive, but a combination of follow-up mailings and a $1.00or $2.00 incentive produced a significantly higher responserate than an equivalent number of mailings without an incentive. There was some evidence of intertreatment response bias. Largermonetary incentives tended to produce: (1) a greater degreeof effort expended in completing the questionnaires, as measuredby the number of short answers and comments provided, and thenumber of words written, and (2) comments that were more favorabletoward the survey sponsor.