Who is on the rise in Austria: Wage mobility and mobility risk

In this paper we investigate earnings mobility in Austria from the angle of individual persons. Earnings mobility over time has two aspects: Positional changes and the volatility of earnings over time. Whereas the further is a positive outcome, more volatility as such can be seen as negative. We use Austrian data from tax authorities to find out how population characteristics are related to these two concepts of earnings mobility. Our main results concern initial positions: The higher up you are at the beginning, the more difficult is further positional advancement, moreover, in terms of volatility we see that those in the lowest quantiles of the earnings distribution face the highest volatility of earnings positions over time. *Rudolf Winter-Ebmer is also associated with CEPR, London and IZA, Bonn.     

TAXATION, AGGREGATE ACTIVITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: CROSS-COUNTRY EVIDENCE ON SOME SUPPLY-SIDE HYPOTHESES

Data from sixty-three countries are used to examine the impact of average and marginal tax rates on the level and growth of economic activity. Apparent negative effects of tax rates on growth disappear upon controlling for (1) potential endogeneity of average tax rates to per capita income and (2) the relation between economic growth and per capita income. However, controlling for average tax rates, increases in marginal tax rates have negative effects on the level of economic activity. This evidence supports the hypothesis that reductions in the "progressivity" of tax rates induce a parallel shift upward in the growth path.     

Regulatory fit effects on perceived fiscal exchange and tax compliance

Paying taxes can be considered a contribution to the welfare of a society. But even though tax payments are redistributed to citizens in the form of public goods and services, taxpayers often do not perceive many benefits from paying taxes. Information campaigns about the use of taxes for financing public goods and services could increase taxpayers’ understanding of the importance of taxes, strengthen their perception of fiscal exchange and consequently also increase tax compliance. Two studies examined how fit between framing of information and taxpayers’ regulatory focus affects perceived fiscal exchange and tax compliance. Taxpayers should perceive the exchange between tax payments and provision of public goods and services as higher if information framing suits their regulatory focus. Study 1 supported this hypothesis for induced regulatory focus. Study 2 replicated the findings for chronic regulatory focus and further demonstrated that regulatory fit also affects tax compliance. The results provide further evidence for findings from previous studies concerning regulatory fit effects on tax attitudes and extend these findings to a context with low tax morale.     

TAXATION, AGGREGATE ACTIVITY and ECONOMIC GROWTH: FURTHER CROSS-COUNTRY EVIDENCE ON SOME SUPPLY-SIDE HYPOTHESES

This paper investigates the effect of marginal tax rates on the level of economic activity. Data from sixty-three countries for the period 1970-84 provide support for Koester and Kormendi's method of estimating marginal tax rates for individual countries. However, their conclusion that increases in marginal tax rates have negative effects on the level of economic activity is not robust when we extend the time period from 1970-79 to 1970-84. Further, even for Koester and Kormendi's own data set, the negative relation does not hold when the sample is disaggregated into industrial countries and low-income countries.     

Effective tax rates and firm size in Ethiopia

The literature on Effective Tax Rates (ETRs) focuses on high‐ and middle‐income countries, but there is very little evidence on low‐income countries. This article addresses this gap with new evidence from Ethiopia. We investigate corporate ETRs in Ethiopia and whether the distributional effects they have in practice are in line with the corporate tax policy design. We calculate ETRs in line with the literature in this field, using profit tax at the numerator and gross profit at the denominator. We then analyse ETRs not only using panel data, focusing particularly on their relation to firm size, but also including other explanatory variables. Our main result is that, despite a proportional tax rate, small firms face a higher effective tax burden than larger firms, while middle‐sized firms face the lowest burden of all. We highlight that tax systems can have practical implications that differ largely from their policy design, due to compliance costs and imperfect enforcement. Measures to reduce compliance costs for small firms are particularly recommended.     

International Tax Competition: A Case for International Cooperation in Globalization

The liberalization of international financial flows and foreign direct investment has induced countries to use diverse measures to attract inflow of foreign capital and foreign direct investment, which is expected to have a positive effect on the growth of GDP and thus a positive effect on social welfare. Tax exemption, reduction of tax rate, tax holiday, or diverse subsidies are some of the most important measures used. In this paper we study international tax cooperation, i.e., countries change and especially reduce tax rate for corporate income or for asset revenues to attract inflow of foreign direct investment. Both theoretical and empirical studies have shown the sensibility of foreign direct investment decision with respect to tax rate differences between home countries and host countries. In general, more inflow of foreign direct investment can be expected if the tax rate of the home country is lower than that of foreign countries. This is the main reason for international tax cooperation. In this paper we propose a simple model to prove the sub-optimal Nash non cooperative solution in a two-country tax-competition game. The model shows that international tax cooperation can improve welfare of the participating countries. How to reach a cooperative solution for an international tax competition game (ITCG) is therefore an important issue for further discussions and studies. International institutions can play a crucial role to reach international tax cooperation or international tax harmonization.     

CORPORATE TAX POLICY AND INDUSTRY LOCATION WITH FULLY ENDOGENOUS PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH

This paper considers how national corporate tax policy affects productivity growth through adjustments in geographic patterns of industry in a two‐country model of trade. With trade costs and imperfect knowledge spillovers between countries, production concentrates partially and innovation concentrates fully in the country with the lowest tax rate. A rise in the international corporate tax differential accelerates productivity growth through an increase in the production share of the low‐tax country that improves knowledge spillovers from industry to innovation. The paper also investigates the relationship between the corporate tax differential and the level of market entry, and analytically characterizes the effects of changes in tax policy on national welfare. (JEL F43, O30, O40, R12)     

The influence of acculturation level and family relationships on quality of life among U.S. Chinese older adults

ABSTRACT

The present study examined the influence of acculturation level and family relationships (i.e., positive family support and negative family strain) on quality of life (QOL), using the data from the Population Study of ChINese Elderly (PINE) in Chicago (N = 3159). Controlling for sociodemographic variables and health status, it was found that individuals’ acculturation level and positive family support were positively related to QOL, whereas negative family strain was negatively associated with QOL. More importantly, higher acculturation levels were associated with increased protective effects of positive family support and reduced risk effects of negative family strain on QOL among U.S. Chinese older adults.     

THE CULTURE OF CORRUPTION,TAX EVASION,AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

This study uses a dynamic general equilibrium model to quantify the effects of corruption and tax evasion on fiscal policy and economic growth. The model is calibrated to match estimates of tax evasion in developing countries. The calibrated model is able to generate reasonable predictions for net tax rates, the corruption associated with public investment projects, and the negative correlation between corruption and tax revenue. The presence of corruption and evasion is shown to have significant, but not large, negative effects on economic growth. The relatively moderate effects help explain the absence of a robust negative correlation between growth and corruption in cross‐country data. The model also implies that cracking down on tax evasion before addressing corruption can be a bad idea and that higher wages for public officials can improve welfare. (JEL H3, O4)     

Citizenship and power in an agent-based model of tax compliance with public expenditure

In this paper we present a model of tax compliance with heterogeneous agents who maximize their individual utility based on income and the conjectured level of per capita public expenditure. We formally include psychological drivers in this model. These drivers affect individual behavior, such as risk aversion, together with appreciation of public expenditure, expectations about peers’ compliance and a natural inclination to comply, all of which we summarize in a quality termed “citizenship”. The enforcement system, based on random inspections, is standard and only partially known to agents.The agent-based model is simulated under a variety of settings, representing different “societies”. We use the artificial data produced by the model to estimate the effects of taxpayers’ traits on personal tax behavior and to build a compliance societal slippery slope. At the individual level, we find a positive dependence of compliance on all variables, with the significant exception of the tax rate, which has a negative impact. As far as societies are concerned, we show how aggregate tax compliance depends on composite indices of citizenship and power, and we find that the former is more important than the latter.     

Does unemployment increase suicide rates? The OECD panel evidence

Previous studies of whether unemployment increases suicide rates give mixed results. None of them controlled for an interaction between unemployment and income. This paper tests the hypothesis whether the relationship between unemployment rates and suicide rates vary according to the level of real per capita GDP. We use the cross-country panel fixed effects approach to exclude cross-sectional variations but exploit time-series ones. We support that higher income is associated with higher suicide rates. In particular, the evidence shows that the implied effect of unemployment on suicide rates is positive for countries with higher income. Actually, for countries with lower-income levels, there is a negative impact of unemployment on suicides.     

Anomie Among European Adolescents: Conceptual and Empirical Clarification of a Multilevel Sociological Concept1

Anomie is a complex, dynamic concept that refers simultaneously to a social state and an individual state of mind. Generations of sociologists have attempted to clarify, extend, and measure the concept at various levels of analysis. This article summarizes these developments around the twin concepts of exteriority and constraint. Exteriority refers to experiencing the social world as an objective, predictable reality, while constraint refers to the extent to which one experiences a personal commitment to the demands and expectations of society. The Anomie Scale of Exteriority and Constraint (ASEC) is presented and tested across various psychological and social outcomes among adolescents in 18 European countries. Exteriority is found to be primarily associated with more depression and less self‐esteem, while constraint is associated with a lower probability of daily smoking, illicit drug use, truancy, and suicide attempts. Societal anomie is higher in eastern European countries and it has a strong negative correlation with GDP per capita and a marginally positive correlation with GDP growth. Societal anomie is also associated with higher baseline levels of depression, self‐esteem, and illicit drug use. These results lend strong support to the theoretical construct of anomie as exteriority and constraint.     

Shacking Up or Shelling Out: Income Taxes,Marriage, and Cohabitation

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the income tax penalty associated with marriage contributes to the decision of a couple to live together as a married vs. a cohabiting couple. In this paper, we use household data from the Panel Study on Income Dynamics to estimate the impact of various factors, including the federal individual income tax, on a couple's decision to marry instead of cohabit. We find that the initial decision to form either a cohabiting or a married union is only marginally affected by the income tax consequences of one form of union vs. another, and other factors play a more important role. However, for those already living together as a cohabiting couple, the decision to make the transition from a cohabiting to a married couple is significantly affected by the tax consequences of such a move. Here, an increase in the income tax at legal marriage, or an increase in the marginal tax rate with marriage, has a statistically significant and negative impact on the probability of transition from cohabitation to legal marriage. However, the magnitude of the tax impact is generally small, and several other variables are more important determinants.     

The Rapid Rise of Supermarkets?

A series of articles, many of them published in this journal, have charted the rapid spread of supermarkets in developing and middle‐income countries and forecast its continuation. In this article, the level of supermarket penetration (share of the retail food market) is modelled quantitatively on a cross‐section of 42 countries for which data could be obtained, representing all stages of development. GDP per capita, income distribution, urbanisation, female labour force participation and openness to inward foreign investment are all significant explanators. Projections to 2015 suggest significant but not explosive further penetration; increased openness and GDP growth are the most significant factors.     

Income Inequality in Host Countries and Remittances: A Discussion of the Determinants of Portuguese Emigrants' Remittances

The evolution of income inequality in host countries affects the migrants working there. As a significant number of these migrants do not earn high incomes, this evolution tends to significantly affect migrants' abilities to send money back to their home countries. We test this hypothesis considering the evolution of income inequality in 59 countries with Portuguese emigrants through observations from 1996 to 2014. Using the system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator, we found that an increase in income inequality leads to fewer remittances per emigrant. We also controlled income inequality with several determinants of remittances, including the real GDP per capita, unemployment rate, education skills, and the self‐employment rates of the host countries.     

Intention to pay taxes or to avoid them: The impact of social value orientation

Economic factors such as audit rates and fines have shown inconsistent effects on tax payments, suggesting that they are not sufficient to explain tax compliance. Moreover, the tax compliance rate is surprisingly higher than what the standard economic model would predict. In the last fifteen years, literature aimed at solving this so called “puzzle of compliance” has increased and pointed out several factors that could possibly explain tax compliance processes, e.g., knowledge of the tax laws, trust toward the political system, as well as personal or social norms. The studies presented here examined the impact of social value orientation on tax morale and intention to avoid/evade taxes. Social value orientation was examined both as a chronic personal orientation (Studies 1 and 2) and as a contextual factor made salient by experimental manipulations (Study 3). The results are supportive of a relationship between social value orientation and measures of tax compliance. Furthermore, results of Study 3 provided evidence for a causal effect of social value orientation on intended tax non-compliance. The effect of social value orientation on intended tax non-compliance was mediated by tax morale (Studies 2 and 3). Results are discussed with reference to their potential practical applications.     

HOW DOES GLOBALIZATION AFFECT THE IMPLICIT TAX RATES ON LABOR INCOME,CAPITAL INCOME,AND CONSUMPTION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION?

This article analyzes the effects of globalization on implicit tax rates (ITRs) on labor income, capital income, and consumption in the EU15 and Central and Eastern European New Member States (CEE NMS). We find supportive evidence for an increase in the ITR on labor income in the EU15, but no effect on the ITR on capital income. There is evidence of convergence in terms of the ITR on consumption, as countries with higher than average ITR on consumption respond to globalization by decreasing their tax rates. There are important differences among the welfare regimes within the EU15. Social‐democratic countries have decreased the tax burden on capital, but increased that on labor due to globalization. Globalization exerts a pressure to increase taxes on labor income in the conservative and liberal regimes as well. Taxes on consumption decrease in response to globalization in the conservative and social‐democratic regimes. In the CEE NMS, there is no effect of globalization on the ITR on labor and capital income, but we find a negative impact on the ITR on consumption in the CEE NMS with higher than average ITR on consumption. (JEL H23, H24, H25, F19, F21)     

Economic Transition and Regional Growth: The Case of Albania and Comparator SEECs

The focus of this paper is to investigate the growth performance of Albania and other South Eastern European Countries in the period 1990–2006 by examining traditional growth sources as emerge from standard theoretical models. It focuses on macroeconomic performances and GDP per capita growth rates to examine why countries in the SEE region are lagging behind with respect to other transition economies. The analysis is conducted through stylised growth regressions to estimate convergence rates and coefficients of key factors of growth. Results indicate that real GDP growth in all the eight countries is mainly driven by physical capital accumulation, whereas the contribution of human capital is insignificant or even negative.     

Main Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the Southeast European Countries

The growth of foreign direct investments (FDI) in the world has been significant in recent years. Between 1990 and 2000 worldwide FDI inflows increased more than five times, and since 2000 they have declined. During the period of FDI expansion, growth was especially strong from 1997 onward. However, most of the FDI transactions were between the developed countries. The distribution of FDI is unequal and less-developing countries face difficulties in attracting FDI. Despite the fact that FDI is increasingly important to developing countries, over the past few years the share of the developing countries in worldwide FDI inflows has been declining. The paper analyses geographical and sector distribution of FDI in the Southeast European countries (SEEC) and compares its amount with that in Central East European countries. According to economic theory, FDI towards developing countries flows for labor-intensive and low-technology production, while towards developed states, it flows for high-technology production. Identification of determining factors of FDI is a complex problem which depends on several characteristics specific for each country, sectors, and companies. All those factors could be grouped in three broad categories: economic policy of host country, economic performance, and attractiveness of national economy. On the desegregated level, FDI depends on size and growth potential of a national economy, natural resources endowments and quality of workforce, openness to international trade and access to international markets, and quality of physical, financial, and technological infrastructure. An important question is how SEEC can attract more foreign investment. To find the answer, this paper uses data on FDI inflows to SEEC to determine the main host country determinants of FDI and provides regression-based estimation of determinants of FDI. Using a sample of SEEC and panel data techniques, the determinants of FDI in this part of Europe are investigated. The paper researches the relationship between FDI, GDP, GDP per capita, number of inhabitants, trade openness, inflation, external debt, and information and communication technology sectors. For SEEC, FDI inflows are largely dependent on the completion of the privatization process and in this paper we include the level of private sector and privatization as explanatory variables. Our findings suggest that certain variables such as privatization and trade regime, as well as the density of infrastructure, appear to be robust under different specifications. A positive significance of the agglomeration factor is also observed, confirming the relevant theoretical propositions. However, certain differential variables, such as the privatization, could not be fully captured due to the statistical homogeneity of the sample.     

World Income Distribution and Tax Reform: What Tax Systems Do Low‐Income Countries Need?

This article develops a new method for assessing relative direct tax burdens across all countries, treating the world as a single economic entity and assuming identical preferences across countries. Empirical results show that the new direct tax burden indices are significantly high in low‐income countries in comparison with middle‐ and high‐income countries. This article argues in favour of narrowing the base of income and capital gains tax in low‐income countries and a long‐term convergence of the tax burden levels across countries. Future research into tax reforms in low‐income countries should focus simultaneously on economic growth, quality of life and the natural environment.