HRD and specialists in organizations

This paper describes the issues for HRD arising from research into the role of government statistical staff in the British and Canadian public policy processes. It identifies the influences of strategy, structure and location on that role, the barriers to increasing the policy impact of the statistical staff, and the training and development implications of staff needing to deliver more with fewer resources. The paper finishes by outlining how the findings raise general HRD issues for organizations employing specialist groups.     

Conundrums of Urban Planning in a Global Context: The Case of the Frankfurt Airport

The article reviews the complexity of urban policy formulation in Frankfurt, Germany, where officials are trying to enlarge the international airport to stay competitive in international air transportation and meet the challenges of global business operations. This case study analyzes an elaborate mediation process that helped the formal decision-makers avert the violence threatened by anti-globalization and environmentalist protesters. Although some legal challenges loom ahead, a majority of Frankfurt residents support the new airport expansion. The Frankfurt experience will help other communities minimize the confrontation between urban policy makers, corporate business elites, and citizen groups that are concerned with issues of public health and clean environment.     

The Maximally Exposed Individual—Comparison of Maximum Likelihood Estimation of High Quantiles to an Extreme Value Estimate

The dose to human and nonhuman individuals inflicted by anthropogenic radiation is an important issue in international and domestic policy. The current paradigm for nonhuman populations asserts that if the dose to the maximally exposed individuals in a population is below a certain criterion (e.g., <10 mGy d(-1)) then the population is adequately protected. Currently, there is no consensus in the regulatory community as to the best statistical approach. Statistics, currently considered, include the maximum likelihood estimator for the 95th percentile of the sample mean and the sample maximum. Recently, the investigators have proposed the use of the maximum likelihood estimate of a very high quantile as an estimate of dose to the maximally exposed individual. In this study, we compare all of the above-mentioned statistics to an estimate based on extreme value theory. To determine and compare the bias and variance of these statistics, we use Monte Carlo simulation techniques, in a procedure similar to a parametric bootstrap. Our results show that a statistic based on extreme value theory has the least bias of those considered here, but requires reliable estimates of the population size. We recommend establishing the criterion based on what would be considered acceptable if only a small percentage of the population exceeded the limit, and hence recommend using the maximum likelihood estimator of a high quantile in the case that reliable estimates of the population size are not available.     

Statistics and the Single Market

Abstract. At the end of 1992customs barriers will fall and the European Internal Market will be realized, as envisaged by the Single European Act signed in 1986 by the EEC's member countries. Statistical Offices are preparing to meet the new information requirements from all the economic and social forces of the new Europe. EUROSTAT planned a politically endorsed statistical programme and established the European Statistical Planning Committee, enlarging the tasks of the Conference of the Heads of National Statistical Institutes. Each National Statistical Institute is urgently required to improve the comparability of statistics and implement the harmonised projects of the European Statistical Programme. Official statistics will conform to the new requirements in order to supply the business world, national governments, the EEC authorities and public opinion with up-to-date information to face a wider, more open and competitive market. The business world will focus its attention on information on the flows by sectors and very small areas. Statistics on intra-community foreign trades will shift from customs bills to new tools more directly assigned to national statistical bodies. National governments and EEC countries will need more information on population behaviour as to employment, consumptions, use of leisure time, fruition of public facilities, and social security, as well as more precise estimates of GDP, now the basic contribution to EEC budget. Citizens and public opinion will ask for timely information on migrations, social mobility, income distribution. Demographic projections show the European population is progressively ageing, unemployment is bound to decrease and women are going to be more present within society and the labour market. Information on the home care of elderly people. health, environment, crime prevention and the status of women in general will have to be supplied. Presently Statistics Offices have greater experience in two essential domains: conceptual frameworks and the techniques for conceptual statistical representation of the investigated events. Moreover, the improving of computer technology will provide substantial help to survey methodologies and data processing.     

The Role of Survey Data in Microsimulation Models for Social Policy Analysis

Questions about the impact of social policies cannot be answered solely on the basis of official statistics made available in tabular format. The access to microdata allows policy analysts to answer these questions with a larger set of analytical tools, in particular microsimulation models. This paper examines the interface between survey data and microsimulation models. We review different types of microsimulation models (static and dynamic) and their data requirements. We then restrict the attention to survey-based microdata, and examine issues in survey design, questionnaire content, data quality, and dissemination policy that are important from the perspective of microsimulation.     

Bringing About Changes to Corporate Social Policy through Shareholder Activism: Filers,Issues, Targets,and Success

We examine shareholder initiated social policy proposals' capacity to exert pressure on management to force it to adopt the suggested changes in policy. We show that social proposals, filed under the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's Rule 14a‐8, have a more limited capacity to change corporate social policy than it has been previously reported. However, the capacity to exert pressure on firms can be substantially higher for some types of filers, notably pension funds and mutual funds. The analysis also suggests that the capacity to influence management is higher for some types of issues presented in the resolution, such as those related to board diversity, energy and environment, and international laborand human rights. We also provide suggestions explaining why shareholder activism is a persistent practice despite its limited results.     

Expert Views on Their Role as Policy Advisor: Pilot Study for the Cases of Electromagnetic Fields,Particulate Matter,and Antimicrobial Resistance

This perspective presents empirical data to demonstrate the existence of different expert views on scientific policy advice on complex environmental health issues. These views are partly research‐field specific. According to scientific literature, experts differ in the way they provide policy advice on complex issues such as electromagnetic fields (EMF), particulate matter (PM), and antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Where some experts feel their primary task is to carry out fundamental research, others actively engage in the policy dialogue. Although the literature provides ideas about expert roles, there exists little empirical underpinning. Our aim is to gather empirical evidence about expert roles. The results of an international study indicated that experts on EMF, PM, and AMR differ in the way they view their role in the policy dialogue. For example, experts differed in their views on the need for precaution and their motivation to initiate stakeholder cooperation. Besides, most experts thought that their views on the risks of EMF/PM/AMR did not differ from those of colleagues. Great dissensus was found in views on the best ways of managing risks and uncertainties. In conclusion, the theoretical ideal–typical roles from the literature can be identified to a certain extent.     

货币政策规则对国际资本流动与人民币汇率的时变影响——基于TVP-SV-VAR模型的实证检验

本文从货币政策理论出发,构建以稳定国际资本流动与人民币汇率的“多目标”货币政策规则理论模型,并采用1998年1月至2019年11月的月度数据,建立开放经济下的TVP-SV-VAR模型,实证检验不同货币政策规则下货币供应冲击、利率冲击对国际资本流动与人民币汇率的时变与动态影响。结果表明：(1)不同时间阶段,货币政策冲击对国际资本流动和人民币汇率的影响存在较强的时变特征。(2)等间隔脉冲响应表明,货币政策冲击对国际资本流动的短期影响效应要高于中长期,而对人民币汇率的影响却存在一定滞后性和扩散性,且价格型规则更有利于熨平外部冲击对国际资本流动与人民币汇率的影响。(3)时点脉冲响应表明,利率冲击对国际资本流动和人民币汇率的影响弱于货币供应冲击,且利率冲击对国际资本流动的影响回到稳态均衡的速度更快。总体来看,在调节国际资本流动和稳定人民币汇率的效果上,价格型规则优于数量型规则,我国央行货币政策选择应逐步从数量型规则向价格型规则转变。     

公共管理与中国发展——公共管理学科发展的回顾与前瞻

从20世纪70年代末起在中国大地开始进行的历史性变革到现在已经超过20年了。在这场变革中 ,以经济学为代表的许多社会科学学科做出了重要的贡献。随着中国改革的深入与发展 ,随着改革重点从提高效率为主到效率与公平兼顾 ,从市场经济体制的建设向民主与法制社会的转变 ,越来越多的改革实践问题向中国的社会科学领域的学者 ,尤其是向公共管理领域的学者 ,提出了挑战。如果说经济学在中国前一时期的改革与发展中成为社会科学领域中的带头学科 ,那么中国未来的改革与发展则迫切要求公共管理加入到带头学科的行列之中。随着公共管理专业硕士 (MPA)学位教育在中国的开展 ,更多的人们开始了解公共管理这个学科领域在中国改革与发展中的重要地位与作用 ,开始关注这个学科的工作及成果。本刊自2002年第2期开始 ,创办“中国公共管理论坛”这个栏目 ,就是希望能够在中国公共管理领域的学者之间 ,在公共管理领域的学者和实践者之间 ,搭起一座桥梁 ,提供一个学术交流的园地 ,使公共管理不辱使命 ,承担起历史的重任 ,为中国进一步的改革与发展做出其应有的贡献。本栏目的创办得到了清华大学公共管理学院的大力支持 ,他们还专门为本期组织撰写了首篇文章 ,旨在理清国内外公共管理学科的历史发展脉络 ,对有关公共管理学     

Debating Temporary Uses for Vacant Urban Sites: Insights for Practice from a Stakeholder Workshop

Temporary land uses have become the focus of much debate within academic and policy circles in recent years. Although the international literature contains numerous case studies of temporary interventions, little attention has been paid to the dynamics of the interactions among different stakeholders. This paper reports on a stakeholder workshop that used a participatory research approach to collectively define the issues facing those interested in the potential of vacant urban sites. The paper outlines the goals, design and evaluation of the workshop and concludes with a discussion of suggested lessons for practice that emerged from the workshop sessions.     

What explains the extent and content of social disclosures in Swedish municipalities’ annual reports

Public awareness and interest in environmental and social issues as well as increased attention in the mass media have resulted in a higher demand for social disclosures from organisations. The aim of this study is to explain the extent and variation of content in social disclosures among Swedish municipalities. The empirical data is based on annual reports and archive data from official statistics. In this study we take an eclectic approach, and use a multi-theoretical framework in order to explain the content and extent of social disclosures. The statistical analyses show that the extent of social disclosures is associated with size, tax base, tax rate, financial performance and political majority. The study shows that there are significant differences between municipalities regarding both extent and content of social disclosures.     

Policy Imperatives for the International Economy and for Financial Markets in the Emerging World Order

The world economy today is swept by unprecedented rates of change, complexity, interconnectedness, and uncertainty. For the first time since the 1930s, issues of the international economy and financial markets are playing a pivotal role in discussions of foreign and domestic policy. However, even as the revolutionary trends in the international economy and in world finance are in the offing, it is important to realize that the problems of mankind are primarily economic and social, not financial or political. While the trends towards liberalization of economic policies and integration of financial markets might seem to point toward the ultimate triumph of the magic of the market and free enterprise, a little reflection will reveal a number of undercurrents, dilemmas, and difficult choices waiting to be resolved. This article identifies the structural and human dimensions of these challenges in the form of thirteen Policy Imperatives aimed at the creation of modified versions of financial markets to make them more humane and less vulnerable to failure.     

Labour Mobility in Europe as a Result of Changes in Central and Eastern Europe*

Abstract. International migration of labour has become a burning issue and is on the lips of politicians, social scientists, employers and workers. It has has become a global issue, with national borders becoming less important due to process of economic integration. The issue is very complicated since many factors are involved: unemployment, the stand of trade unions and national movements often opposing more liberal immigration rules, non-adherence of countries to international norms, in particular ILO labour standards. However, there are also gains for both labour-exporting and labour-importing countries. The article tries to trace the history of international norms concerning international migration of labour, as well as to touch upon hard facts accompanying such migration. It is difficult to collect these in a systematic manner, given the dearth of information on the subject, due to its sensitivity. However, the paper provides a variety of contro-versial information which is from the press rather than from official data, and therefore difficult to verify. It is a subject on which considerable prejudice clouds rational debate.     

Modeling for insights,not numbers: the experiences of the energy modeling forum

It has often been contended that the primary goal of policy modeling should be the insights quantitative models can provide, not the precise-looking projections—i.e. numbers—they can produce for any given scenario. Students of the energy policy process, in particular, have noted that preoccupation with the plethora of detailed quantitative results produced by large-scale computer models has substantially impeded their influence on key policy decisions. The creation of the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) at Stanford University in 1976 represents one potential remedy for that situation. The EMF was formed to foster better communication between the builders and users of energy models in energy planning and policy analysis. The EMF operates through ad hoc working groups, composed of national and, more recently, international energy modeling and policy experts. These working groups conduct studies concentrating on a single energy topic. The diversity of backgrounds of the working group members ensures that the language of the EMF studies is English, not computer. Each working group identifies existing models relevant to the study's focus. A series of tests is then designed by the group to illuminate the models' basic structure and behavior. A comparison of results is published in a widely distributed report that identifies the models' strengths and weaknesses in the context of the study's topic. Seven EMF studies have been initiated to date: (1) Energy and the economy, (2) Coal in transition, (3) Electric load forecasting, (4) Aggregate elasticity of energy demand, (5) US oil and gas supply, (6) World oil and (7) Macroeconomic impacts of energy shocks. Each EMF study has broadened the understanding of the nature of the relevant policy issues and the models that have been, are, or could be used to address them. The present paper describes how each study's key insights were developed in the context of a simplified analytical framework that provided the proper perspective for understanding the model results.     

Statistics in Management Education

Results of two surveys are presented and indicate the statistical knowledge of past students from Master of Business Administration programmes, their usage of statistics together with their opinions about the statistical content of Master of Business Administration degree courses. These views are contrasted with the results of a second survey of academic staff who teach statistics on such programmes. We find that past students recommend a greater statistical content than is currently taught but, paradoxically, most of the academic staff associated with teaching the subject believe that the statistical content of their programme will decrease in future years.     

Multinational corporations and industrial relations research: A road less travelled

While there is a large body of academic debate surrounding human resource management issues in multinational corporations (MNCs), industrial relations (IR) issues often fail to receive the same degree of attention. This paper attempts to move the debate forward by critically reviewing some of the key debates surrounding IR in an international context. First, some key themes surrounding the comparison of industrial relations across borders and IR in multinational companies are delineated and defined. Then, the reasons why an international IR (IIR) perspective has been under‐represented in the literature to date are considered. The paper then explores the contribution which an IIR perspective can bring to the study of management practices in MNCs. This is discussed in terms of IIR's potential contribution as an alternative analytical approach and also differences in its substantive coverage. The impact of IR systems on MNC location and relocation decisions, key issues for employees, trade unions and managers of MNCs, is then discussed as an example of the former. The potential for, and evidence of, international collective bargaining as a potential counter‐balance to the power the MNC in the global environment is then considered as an example of a differing area of substantive coverage of IIR. Finally, some avenues for potential study are outlined.     

Bayesian Modeling of Measurement Errors and Pesticide Concentration in Dietary Risk Assessments

We propose new models for dealing with various sources of variability and uncertainty that influence risk assessments for dietary exposure. The uncertain or random variables involved can interact in complex ways, and the focus is on methodology for integrating their effects and on assessing the relative importance of including different uncertainty model components in the calculation of dietary exposures to contaminants, such as pesticide residues. The combined effect is reflected in the final inferences about the population of residues and subsequent exposure assessments. In particular, we show how measurement uncertainty can have a significant impact on results and discuss novel statistical options for modeling this uncertainty. The effect of measurement error is often ignored, perhaps due to the laboratory process conforming to the relevant international standards, for example, or is treated in an  ad hoc  way. These issues are common to many dietary risk analysis problems, and the methods could be applied to any food and chemical of interest. An example is presented using data on carbendazim in apples and consumption surveys of toddlers.     

GREPOM: An energy policy model

Energy policy analysis and energy modelling as applied in the case of Greece are reviewed. A complex of energy policy models in synergy is presented. These models have been developed by the Energy Policy Unit of the National Technical University of Athens and constitute the framework for analysing specific medium- and long-term policy options. A case study involving the use of new energy technologies is described. Scenarios relating to the penetration rate of new energy technologies are analysed and respective policy implications are discussed. A general conclusion to the research conducted is that with parallel work on both the content of specific policy issues and the policymaking process in general, substantial progress could be made in improving the decision-making potential of public policy organizations.     

The raisons d&#x27;être for international management as a field of study

What justifies international management as a field of study? What differentiates international management from international business? These, and other issues of domain and curricular coverage are discussed in this introductory essay.     

International business thought: A 50-year footprint

As international business marks 50 years of its establishment as a distinct domain of academic research, discussions on both the major contributions of the field and its future research directions have drawn great interest in the current literature. The arrival at a clear consensus on these issues, however, has been set back by the lack of resolution in the search for a unifying, integrative framework of international business. Drawing on theories of knowledge organisation and on extant reviews of international business research, this paper proposes an emergent international business research framework anchored around four unifying themes expressed as broad international business research questions. A content analysis of 1689 studies in the Journal of International Business Studies (JIBS) from its maiden issue in 1970 to 2008 and studies classified as international business in nature done prior to 1960 confirms the trajectories of international business research along the four themes. It is suggested that these major research themes serve as the main research pillars that define the international business domain, framing research done so far, and driving future research in the field. Areas of research intensity and opportunity are identified along with implications for international business research and theory-building.