Food and population: beyond five billion

The developing countries, with about 3/4 of the world's population, account for less than 1/2 of the production of major food crops. The Third World's per capita food production of 260 kilograms in 1983 was only 1/3 of that in the developed countries. Yet China and India, the most populous countries in the world, have cut fertility rates and moved to food self-sufficiency. An illustration of the food/population dynamic is that although production of food staples in North Africa and the Middle East is projected to expand at about the same rate as that of Asia, about 2.9% annually, owing to a much more rapid rate of population increase, they will achieve only a 0.2% increase in output per person per year, compared with a 1.4% annual growth rate in Asia. In the longer term, higher dietary levels per capita for a world population double that of the present would imply at least a tripling of demand for dietary staples. But more intensive cultivation would place natural resources, many already degraded, under much greater stress. Balancing population, food, and resources for sustained survival is a continual process. The principle cause of hunger and malnutrition is poverty; it is more determinative of nutritional status than aggregate food production.     

从“三种生产理论”到“多种生产理论”——科学发展观的一种新启示

随着生态环境问题的出现并严重化,“两种生产理论”的局限性逐渐暴露,将生态环境生产纳入其中的“三种生产理论”应运而生。但在当今知识经济时代,文化和制度等社会环境因素的力量逐渐突显并日趋强大,我们发现“三种生产理论”还有待于进一步丰富和发展。文章通过举例指出了“三种生产理论”的一些不足之处,并将文化生产和制度生产融入其中,提出“多种生产理论,”以期对科学发展观的形成有所启示。     

How does household production affect measured income inequality?

Theory predicts that lower-income households will produce more goods at home. Thus extended income, which includes household production, should be more equally distributed than money income. Previous studies have confirmed the greater equality of extended income and speculated that the result is due to the weak correlation between money income and household production. We also confirm this result and identify the true reason. We show that the weak correlation cannot be the explanation and that virtually all of the difference in measured inequality between the two measures is due to the addition of a large constant—the average value of household production—to money income.     

Preliminary discussion on the current over-population in agriculture in China]

The population devoted to agriculture constitutes more than 80% of China's total population. This high percentage is not very common in today's world. In the last 30 years, the population devoted to agriculture has increased by 81.9%, but the area of arable land has decreased in the same period of time. This situation has created problems, such as a surplus of agricultural labor, an imbalance between the agricultural population growth and agricultural means of production, a serious contradiction between the agricultural population growth and mechanization of agriculture, an imbalance between the agricultural population growth and means of livelihood, and the current low standard of living for populations engaged in agricultural work. In order to solve the problems of overpopulation, various measures must be taken in different places. The economic structure of agriculture is to be reasonably arranged, and various operations in agriculture are to be carried out. In addition to the production of main agricultural crops, forestry, animal husbandry, the fishing industry, and family supplementary income are to be developed in order to provide more job opportunities. Communes and production teams should emphasize labor intensive plans for more profit with less investment. Agriculture should focus on intensive farming in order to increase productivity. Arable land can be expanded with reclamation projects, and water and soil conservation is necessary. The surplus agricultural population should be utilized for productive activities.     

"Taking full responsibility" should be emphasized in the control of population growth]

Since the establishment of a responsible production system in the countryside, the living standard of the general public has risen constantly, but a new problem in family planning has also occurred. A great many people believe that more male children will eventually provide more labor and thus more income. Consequently, there has been a gradual rise in the birth rate. A crucial problem which needs an immediate solution is how to match the population growth and agricultural production. As a responsible production system is established, an appropriate family planning system should also be established. Married couples of childbearing age should sign contracts concerning family planning and should follow regulations outlined in the contract. Contract violators should be punished with fines, and thoas who follow the contract should be offered economic rewards. Cadres and responsible officials should take full responsibility for reaching the goals set for their respective county, district, commune or brigade, and their people should be rewarded or punished according to their performance. Special care should be given to the old, handicapped, orphans and widows and those who suffer from illness. Households with only one child should be awarded and encouraged with additional benefits. Taking full responsibility is a concept which should be used extensively in agricultural development, production management, and family planning.     

国际生产分工、环境规治与中国工业污染：--基于联立方程模型GMM估计方法的经验研究

基于环境政策内生模型，建立联立方程模型，应用GMM估算方法，以二氧化硫排放量作为环境指标，就国际分工、环境规治对我国工业污染的影响进行了实证研究。研究结果表明国际生产分工有助于清洁生产技术在我国的推广使用，从而技术效应对于减少二氧化硫的排放量有积极作用。同时，国际生产分工使得我国产业结构陷入低端过度制造业的陷阱，从而促进了我国二氧化硫排放量的增加。我国环境管理机构采取的税收政策和污染治理措施，都有助于我国二氧化硫排放量的减少，由于排污费过低，未能有效增加排污成本，使得污染治理效应高于环境税收效应。因此，促进产业服务业化，提高在国际生产分工地位，加强排污税收力度，是减少我国工业污染的关键。     

Why are fewer married women joining the work force in rural India? A decomposition analysis over two decades

In contrast with global trends, India has witnessed a secular decline in women’s employment rates over the past few decades. We investigate this decline in rural areas, where the majority of Indian women reside. Using parametric and semi-parametric decomposition techniques, we show that changes in individual and household attributes fully account for the fall in women’s labor force participation in 1987–1999 and account for more than half of the decline in 1999–2011. Our findings underscore increasing education levels among rural married women and the men in their households as the most prominent attributes contributing to this decline. We provide suggestive evidence that changes in more educated women’s relative returns to home production compared with market production may have adversely affected female labor force participation in rural India.     

Agricultural production responsibility system and the work of family planning in the rural area]

With the establishment of the agricultural production responsibility system, the entire agricultural management and economic system has undergone great changes, and family planning in rural areas has met with many difficulties. Because of this responsibility system, households with more manpower seem to become wealthy more rapidly than others. An existing belief among the rural population is that more children will provide a larger labor force and thus more income. Birth control and family planning are therefore becoming more difficult. In order to change existing beliefs, a comprehensive ideological education for peasants is needed so that they may understand the question of birth control from the viewpoints of national interests. Economic rewards and administrative restrictions may be used as necessary birth control measures. Agricultural production and family planning can be managed well if there is close contact and cooperation between the cadres and the masses. Extra care and benefits should be given to women of childbearing age who undergo birth control operations and agree to a single child in each household. Welfare programs for the masses, such as kindergartens and nursing homes must be established in order to reduce their worries. In addition, efforts are needed to study the new situation and solve new problems. The goal of controlling the rural population growth should be achiefed through practical work and experience.     

Searching for balanced development

It is significant in China, as the day of 5 billion is commemorated, that the Government has shown its full committment to a family planning program that has been internationally acknowledged as one of the most successful efforts in the world today. Since 1979, the annual population growth rate in China has gone down from 2.7% to an annual average of around 1.2%. In fact, because China makes up more than 1/5 of the world's population, the overall growth rate achieved worldwide has been reduced to about 2%. This is heavily due to the achievements of the Chinese family planning program. Even as China has lowered its birthrate, its rate of agricultural production has rapidly risen. At present, China is doing well in grain production. Although the per capita income in China is still comparatively low, the country is able to feed its citizens, and the famines that used to be a big problem are now but a bad memory. As the close relationship between population and development is observed, there is some controversy about the effects and impact of family planning on development. The belief is held that the more people there are in this world, the more progress there will be because more brains, hands, and energy will be harnessed for development. As has also been noted, however, a person is not just head and hands--a person has a mouth to feed, as well. Thus, there is a need to balance the number of people with the resources of the society. If the rate of population growth outstrips economic and social production, then hunger and poverty will result, as the fruits of development will be eaten up too rapidly.     

西北地区人力资本在经济增长中作用的实证分析

本文利用总量生产函数模型,采用因素分解法分析了1990-2000年间西北五省区人力资本投入在经济增长中的贡献度,同时分析了物资资本、劳动力投入及技术进步因素的贡献作用。分析结果表明,物质资本是主要的经济增长贡献因素,人力资本和技术进步也在起到越来越大的作用。     

Apocalypse when? Population growth and food supply in South Asia

Food demands for staple grains are expected to almost double over the next 25 years in South Asia, due to population growth and increased standards of living. Trends in the mid-1990s suggest that neither pessimism nor optimism prevails in the region. There is wide diversity among and within countries. Trends suggest that population densities are already the highest in the world, and the amount of arable land is declining. Urban growth has moved onto farm land and farmers have been pushed onto more marginal lands or have become landless. Land intensification has produced mixed results. Cereal production per capita has increased since the 1950s in India, with about 75% of the region's population, but Pakistan's increases were not sustained into the 1980s. Average daily caloric intake per person in the region of 2214 is below the level in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Bangladesh, levels are particularly worrisome at 2037. The environmental impact has not been easily quantified, but experts have suggested that pressure on farm land has contributed to loss of soil fertility and water resource loss. Further intensification of farming is feasible, but difficult and more expensive than in the past. Regardless of production problems and solutions, there is also the very real problem of poor food distribution and lack of purchasing power. Farm management skills must be utilized, if environmental degradation is to be avoided. There is the added unknown of what climate changes will occur and how agricultural production will be affected. The policy implications are that increased food production must be made a political priority. Policies must support agricultural research into improved technologies and support distribution of technological advances to a wider number of farmers. Rural infrastructures such as roads, market outlets, and credit agencies must be established. Policies must be removed that disadvantage farmers, such as inappropriate subsidies for irrigation water, inadequate tenure agreements, and price setting. Slowing population growth provides time to adjust to expanding production and saving the environment.     

Making coal pay: The conversion of natural resources to economic resources in Southern Appalachia: The case of eastern Kentucky

This analysis follows up earlier empirical research in Appalachian Kentucky on how coal production influences socioeconomic development and still earlier research on dimensions of development. The research issue approached here is what factors affect counties' ability to convert a natural resource, coal, to an economic resource, income. The answer appears to be that counties that are more effective are more developed and those less effective are less developed.     

中国城市化发展对粮食生产影响分析

1990年之后,我国粮食生产变动较大,同时我国城市化的两个主要方面——人口城市化和土地利用城市化继续迅速发展,分别表现为:粮食总产量波动很大,人均粮食产量呈减少趋势;人口城市化保持快速推进,导致农业劳动力数量减少、素质弱化;土地利用的城市化发展速度更快,造成耕地面积减少、质量不断降低。数据分析显示,我国目前粮食生产仍主要依靠劳动力和耕地两大基本要素的投入,因此城市化的上述发展特征,将对中国粮食生产造成不利影响。     

Studying Marx's discussion on the position and role of population in social and economic development]

According to Marx and Engels, population is the premise for material life. The difference between man and animal is that man, in order to exist, must have a means of subsistence; thus, his 1st historical activity is to produce these means while at the same time reproduce himself. The function and position of population is to serve as the basis and primary force for all social productive activities. Population further serves as the basis for its own material production. All human relationships and functions, regardless of form or situation, influence material production. Actually, population itself is a kind of productive force as well as consuming force. Population produces material goods which ultimately are used by the population. Hence population is the unification of production and consumption. That is, population's activities consist of production and consumption. According to Marx, accumulated capital regulates population development; at the same time, population development influences the accumulation of capital. Population growth must be the basis for the realization of accumulated capital. In addition, population structure influences the accumulation of capital. Within a single nation, the larger the laboring class, the more prosperous is the country. Among countries, however, this principle is not necessarily so. Marx also believed that raising production rates is the basic way to increase accumulated capital. And, a necessary condition for raising production rates is to raise the quality of population.     

Estimating intrahousehold allocation in a collective model with household production

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the intra-family distribution of income and the individual demand for leisure and household production from Swedish cross-sectional household data. As a basis for the analysis, we use a collective model where each individual is characterized by his or her own utility function and divides total time between leisure, household production and market work. For the purpose of comparison, we also estimate a version that is consistent with a more traditional model of labor supply, the unitary model. Received: 14 April 2000/Accepted: 12 January 2001     

Lattice population dynamics for plants with dispersing seeds and Vegetative propagation

The population dynamics of plants in a lattice structured habitat are studied theoretically. Plants are assumed to propagate both by producing seeds that scatter over the population and by vegetative reproduction by extending runners, rhizomes, or roots, to neighboring vacant sites. In addtion, the seed production rate may be dependent on the local density in the neighborhood, indicating beneficial or harmful crowding effects. Two sets of population dynamical equation(s) are derived: one based onmean-field approximation and the other based onpair approximation (tracing both global and local densities simultaneously). We examine the accuracy of these approximate dynamics by comparing them with direct computer simulation of the stochastic lattice model. Pair approximation is much more accurate than mean-field approximation. Mean-field approximation overestimates the parameter range for persistence if crowding effects on seed production are harmful or weakly beneficial, but underestimates it if crowding effects are highly beneficial. Dynamics may show bistability (both population persistence and extinction) if the effect of crowding is strongly beneficial. If there is a linear trade-off between seed production and vegetative reproduction, the equilibrium abundance of the population may be maximised by a mixture of seed production and vegetative reproduction, rather than by pure seed production or by pure vegetative reproduction. This result is correctly predicted by pair approximation but not by mean-field approximation.     

World food resources and population: the narrowing margin

This bulletin examines the narrowing margin between global food production and population growth. Between 1950 and 1971, world grain production nearly doubled and per capita production increased 31%. During the 1970s, gains in output barely kept pace with population growth, consumption/person declined in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia, food prices were volatile, and over 100 food deficit countries came to depend on the exportable surplus of North America, now the only major grain exporting region. The world fish catch levelled off in the early 1970s and beef production, still dependent mainly on grassland grazing, levelled off in the mid-1970s. With little new land left to plow, satisfying increased food demand now depends on sharp increases in yields on existing crop land. Worldwide, this effort is hampered by loss of topsoil and irrigated land, conversion of cropland to nonfarm uses, rising energy costs, inefficient agrarian structures, particularly in the Soviet Union, the falling yield response to chemical fertilizers in agriculturally advanced countries, and the emerging competition between food and agriculturally based energy crops. Green Revolution successes in some developing countries deomonstrate that, given the right inputs, 3rd world farmers can increase crop yields dramatically. Feeding the world's poor also requires more equitable income and food distribution, including a reduction in the proportion of grain and fish consumed indirectly as livestock products by the affluent. Most important in meeting food needs on a finite planet is braking population growth. The author concludes that every effort should be made to stabilize world production at abour 6 billion by 2020, rather than 10.5 billion by 2110, as is now projected by the UN.     

人口老龄化的区域经济效应分析——基于新古典经济增长模型

人口老龄化与区域经济发展之间有着必然的内在关联性。因为生产和消费是区域经济发展中的重要环节,而人口老龄化对生产和消费均有影响,也就必然会影响区域经济的发展。因此,本文首先在梳理国内外相关研究的基础上提出人口老龄化对区域经济发展的双重效应——正效应和负效应;然后以新古典经济增长模型为基础,尝试引入人口老龄化因素从而对该模型进行扩展,分析得到的结论是:①进一步验证了人口老龄化对区域经济发展的双重效应的存在;②不同的区域,人口老龄化程度不同,人口再生产所处于的发展阶段不同,人口老龄化对区域经济发展的经济影响程度,即其正效应和负效应之和也就不尽相同,但存在的一个基本规律是,人口老龄化程度越高,其负效应就越大,其对区域经济发展的减速效应也就越明显。     

[A biological analysis of sex differences in mortality and in life expectancy].]

Biological determinants of differential mortality by sex are examined. The author suggests that a difference in male sex chromosomes is the main reason for the higher mortality rate and lower life expectancy observed in males and for their susceptibility to some genetic diseases. The production of more male fertilized ova is considered as a natural control to balance the sex ratio.     

市场获得与中国劳动力迁徙的边界效应

本研究纳入新经济地理的新型要素——市场获得。试图建立影响劳动力迁徙动力机制的新坐标。利用1998-2008年期间中国劳动力跨区域流动样本数据,本文经验验证了“市场获得一要素报酬一迁徙”的倒“U”关联机制,发现我国早期市场获得对劳动力由外围区向中心区迁徙的贡献显著,并决定了“中心一外围”的地区竞争格局。内部二元经济结构走向“刘易斯拐点”。进而“人口红利”消退,这均迫使“市场获得一迁徙”正向关联机制趋于弱化;研究估算出我国劳动力要素跨区域迁徙的隐性壁垒（边界效应值）为3．94;且边界效应由东向西呈现出阶梯型上升的区域差异态势：劳动力要素市场呈现出中心区相对开放,外围区相对闭塞的局面,而引力型政策和保障性政策分别成为了劳动力跨区域迁徙的拉力和阻力。政府的配套政策应该保障自由市场和生产要素跨区域有效配置,在实现我国区域“中心一外围”格局走向均衡化发展的同时,继续维护中国工业生产的要素竞争力。