Capture-recapture: Before and after EURING 2000

Capture-recapture studies and analyses have become an important tool for the study of bird populations. One reason for the rapid advancement in this area has been the EURING conferences where population biologists and statisticians meet to review recent progress, identify areas that require further work, and work collaborately to solve real world problems. In this paper, we forecast the needs for future research in this area and review the recent conference to try and identify what questions are yet unsolved. This EURING conference was dedicated to Dr George Seber who was the author of a number of key papers and whose name is synonymous with 'The estimation of animal abundance and related parameter' (Seber, 1982). He has retired from working in this field.     

Group heterogeneity in the Jolly–Seber-Tag-Loss model

Mark–recapture experiments involve capturing individuals from populations of interest, marking and releasing them at an initial sample time, and recapturing individuals from the same populations on subsequent occasions. The Jolly–Seber model is widely used in open-population models since it can estimate important parameters such as population size, recruitment, and survival. However, one of the Jolly–Seber model assumptions that can be easily violated is that of no tag loss. Cowen and Schwarz [L. Cowen, C.J. Schwarz, The Jolly–Seber model with tag loss, Biometrics 62 (2006) 677–705] developed the Jolly–Seber-Tag-Loss (JSTL) model to avoid this violation; this model was extended to deal with group heterogeneity by Gonzalez and Cowen [S. Gonzalez, L. Cowen, The Jolly–Seber-tag-loss model with group heterogeneity, The Arbutus Review 1 (2010) 30–42]. In this paper, we studied the group heterogeneous JSTL (GJSTL) model through simulations and found that as sample size and fraction of double tagged individuals increased, bias of parameter estimates is reduced and precision increased. We applied this model to a study of rock lobsters Jasus edwardsii in Tasmania, Australia.     

Research Online: Digital Commons as a Publishing Platform at the University of Wollongong, Australia

Since 2006, Research Online, the University of Wollongong's open access institutional repository has utilised Bepress' Digital Commons software to make available published research outputs and digital theses. This article discusses the outcomes of recent academic demand for its use as a publishing tool of university journals and conference proceedings. The Journal of University Teaching and Learning Practice is provided as an example. Digital Commons includes the editorial management software, EdiKit, which assists in managing submissions, editorial functions, and peer review. Also considered are changes to scholarly communication patterns arising out of the new open access, electronic only, publication regimes.     

Unbiased estimators for restricted adaptive cluster sampling

In adaptive cluster sampling the size of the final sample is random, thus creating design problems. To get round this, Brown (1994) and Brown & Manly (1998) proposed a modification of the method, placing a restriction on the size of the sample, and using standard but biased estimators for estimating the population mean. But in this paper a new unbiased estimator and an unbiased variance estimator are proposed, based on estimators proposed by Murthy (1957) and extended to sequential and adaptive sampling designs by Salehi & Seber (2001). The paper also considers a restricted version of the adaptive scheme of Salehi & Seber (1997a) in which the networks are selected without replacement, and obtains unbiased estimators. The method is demonstrated by a simple example. Using simulation from this example, the new estimators are shown to compare very favourably with the standard biased estimators.     

A case study of green tree frog population size estimation by repeated capture–mark–recapture method with individual tagging: a parametric bootstrap method vs Jolly–Seber method

This paper deals with estimation of a green tree frog population in an urban setting using repeated capture–mark–recapture (CMR) method over several weeks with an individual tagging system which gives rise to a complicated generalization of the hypergeometric distribution. Based on the maximum likelihood estimation, a parametric bootstrap approach is adopted to obtain interval estimates of the weekly population size which is the main objective of our work. The method is computation-based; and programming intensive to implement the algorithm for re-sampling. This method can be applied to estimate the population size of any species based on repeated CMR method at multiple time points. Further, it has been pointed out that the well-known Jolly–Seber method, which is based on some strong assumptions, produces either unrealistic estimates, or may have situations where its assumptions are not valid for our observed data set.     

CORAL User Group Meeting at NC Serials 2019

Abstract

This article reports on the CORAL User Group meeting at the NC Serials 2019 conference. This was the first CORAL user group meeting to take place at the NC Serials conference. The speakers provided updates from CORAL committees and highlighted new features in the most recent CORAL release. They also shared how CORAL has been used in NC State University Libraries and East Carolina University to support their e-resource workflow management.     

Electronic journals and the paradigm shift: 1995 Spring forum of the Canadian Serials Industry Systems Advisory Committee

Abstract

Since 2006, Research Online, the University of Wollongong's open access institutional repository has utilised Bepress' Digital Commons software to make available published research outputs and digital theses. This article discusses the outcomes of recent academic demand for its use as a publishing tool of university journals and conference proceedings. The Journal of University Teaching and Learning Practice is provided as an example. Digital Commons includes the editorial management software, EdiKit, which assists in managing submissions, editorial functions, and peer review. Also considered are changes to scholarly communication patterns arising out of the new open access, electronic only, publication regimes.     

历次全国中青年统计科学研讨会的考察与认知

 本文以求实的态度，对历次全国中青年统计科学研讨会进行了详细的回顾与考察，并根据会议的主题和研究成果，分析了中国统计科学在不同发展阶段的具体情况。在此基础上，对中青年统计科学研讨会的发展过程进行了深层思考和认知，进一步明确了中青年统计工作者的发展方向，及面临的挑战。     

The 'heuristics and biases' bias in expert elicitation

Summary.  In the early 1970s Tversky and Kahneman published a series of papers on 'heuristics and biases' describing human inadequacies in assessing probabilities, culminating in a highly popular article in Science . This seminal research has been heavily cited in many fields, including statistics, as the definitive research on probability assessment. Curiously, although this work was debated at the time and more recent work has largely refuted many of the claims, this apparent heuristics and biases bias in elicitation research has gone unremarked. Over a decade of research into the frequency effect, the importance of framing, and cognitive models more generally, has been almost completely ignored by the statistical literature on expert elicitation. To remedy this situation, this review offers a guide to the psychological research on assessing probabilities, both old and new, and gives concrete guidelines for eliciting expert knowledge.     

Probability matching priors: a review

In recent years, extensive work has been done concerning the derivation of noninformative prior distributions assuring approximate frequentist validity of Bayesian inferences. This paper provides a review of matching priors obtained via quantiles andvia the distribution function. Various matching criteria are described and discussed. Emphasis is laid on a proposal of designing priors matching the true coverage probability as well as the false coverage probabilities of contiguous alternatives with the respective Bayesian counterparts. The review is not primarily meant to be a comprehensive account on the area, but, rather, to convey the main underlying ideas and point out the relationships between matching priors and other noninformative priors, such as the Jeifreys’ and the reference priors.     

Approaches for the direct estimation of u,and demographic contributions to u,using capture-recapture data

We first consider the estimation of the finite rate of population increase or population growth rate, u i , using capture-recapture data from open populations. We review estimation and modelling of u i under three main approaches to modelling openpopulation data: the classic approach of Jolly (1965) and Seber (1965), the superpopulation approach of Crosbie & Manly (1985) and Schwarz & Arnason (1996), and the temporal symmetry approach of Pradel (1996). Next, we consider the contributions of different demographic components to u i using a probabilistic approach based on the composition of the population at time i + 1 (Nichols et al., 2000b). The parameters of interest are identical to the seniority parameters, n i , of Pradel (1996). We review estimation of n i under the classic, superpopulation, and temporal symmetry approaches. We then compare these direct estimation approaches for u i and n i with analogues computed using projection matrix asymptotics. We also discuss various extensions of the estimation approaches to multistate applications and to joint likelihoods involving multiple data types.     

Extremes of Determinants and Optimality of Canonical Variables

Extremes of quadratic forms have been presented by several authors (Okamoto, 1969; Rao, 1973; Seber, 1984). The obvious multivariate extension of the extreme of quadratic forms is the extreme of the determinants as well as the ratios of the determinants. In this paper we develop some supremums of the determinants and the ratios of the determinants. A new optimality and equations of canonical variables are obtained.     

Uses of ringing data for the conservation and management of bird populations: A ringing scheme perspective

This review considers current and potential uses of ring-recovery and mark-recapture methods for conservation-oriented research by European ringing schemes. These schemes are concerned mainly with large-scale studies of the demography and movements of widespread species, much of the data being gathered by volunteers. The data holdings and data-gathering potential of the 33 European ringing schemes are outlined. Over 110 million birds have been ringed in Europe giving rise to 1.8 million recoveries. Some 64% of these recoveries are held in the computerized EURING data bank. Passerines comprise 43% of all recoveries and only 15% are of waterfowl. Currently, about 4 million birds are ringed each year and 90 000 recoveries are reported. Ringing effort is much higher in northern and western Europe than in southern and eastern Europe. Most schemes have recorded the ringing and recovery details of birds that have been recovered in computer files but most ringing data are held only on paper. These ringing data must be computerized for rigorous analyses of survival or movements. Without such computerization, future widespread ringing will be of little value. Five key areas of conservation-oriented research using data from European ringing schemes are identified; monitoring, investigating the causes of population declines, impacts of hunting, flyway networks and seabird studies. Current work and future research opportunities in these areas are discussed, and conservation priorities are identified. Demographic studies for monitoring and identifying the causes of declines are developing well, and are likely to be enhanced further by more gathering of mark-recapture data from standardized projects (such as constant effort sites), by improved access to computerized ringing data and by the development of more flexible, user-friendly software for ring-recovery analysis. Interest in studies of movements is reviving, with quantitative methods starting to be applied to population turnover at migratory stop-over sites (Jolly-Seber models) and to movements between sites (multi-state models). Future planned ringing studies will be important for testing ideas about the dynamics of meta-populations. European ringing schemes have the opportunity to enhance greatly their contribution to conservation over the next decade. This will require better access to computerized data and the development of more planned, cooperative projects at European and national scales. The close collaboration of biologists and statisticians in the analysis of previously collected data should be extended to the review of existing sampling strategies and to the development of new projects.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book reviewed in this article:
Multivariate Observations. By G.A.F. Seber.
Counterexamples in Probability. By Jordan Stoyanov.
Genstat 5 Reference Manual. By the Genstat 5 Committee.
Elements of Statistical Computing : Numerical Computation. By R.A. Thisted.
Linear Least Squares Computations. By R.W. Farebrother.
Randomized Response: Theory and Techniques. By Arijit Chaudhuri and Rahul Mukerjee.     

2011 Association of College and Research Libraries Conference

The 2011 Association of College and Research Libraries (ACRL) conference theme, “A Declaration of Interdependence,” linked the conference to its physical location, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The all-conference reception on Friday night in the six-year-old National Constitution Center expressed the theme perfectly. Held biennially, the 2011 ACRL conference attracted its highest attendance ever: over 5,000 attendees (some virtual), vendors, speakers and guests. Attendee demographics were decidedly younger than those seen at recent general American Library Association (ALA) conferences.     

近二十年来，中国统计学争鸣的观察和思考

1978年峨眉山会议以来,中国统计界长期被禁锢的思想终于获得了大解放,关于统计学性质及研究对象等基本理论问题上的各种不同的学术观点在改革开放的春风吹佛下纷纷萌发出来。“大统计”学科的设想提出以后更是受到统计界绝大多数同志的拥护和欢迎,人们都在热切地盼望着中国统计学发展的新时代。本文沿着时间的轨迹,就近20年来关于中国统计学之争鸣的一些有影响的观点做简单回顾。     

Preface

The appearance of this issue will mark almost two years since its inception by the late Editor, Professor Don B. Owen. Professor Malay Ghosh suggested a special issue on Pitman's Measure of Closeness (PMC) to Professor Owen in autumn of 1989. After a thorough review process the issue was finalized in June 1991. It is with remorse that we publish this special issue in memory of Professor Owen.

The completion of the issue coincided with a special conference, “Pitman's Measure of Cfoseness: Celebrating a Decade of Renaissance,” held on June 15, 1991 at the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). The papers in this special issue, except those of Professor Kubokawa and Drs. Bertuzzi and Gandolfi, were presented and discussed. The conference participants included C.R. Rao (Pennsylvania State University), Colin Blyth (Queen's University), and H.T. David (Iowa State University). Further, P.K. Sen (University of North Carolina) and Malay Ghosh (University of Florida) gave keynote addresses that respectively set the themes for the morning and afternoon sessions.

The conference banquet held in the Regent's Room at the University of Texas at San Antonio, featured stimulating addresses by C.R. Rao and Colin Blyth on some of the major controversies of PMC such as intransitiveness and Berkson's conjecture. We are grateful to the University of Texas at San Antonio for making this conference a reality. In particular, we thank Professor Shair Ahmad, Director of the Division of Mathematics, Computer Science, and Statistics at UTSA for funding travel expenses not only for the invited speakers but also for many of the younger researchers. We also acknowledge University President Samuel Kirkpatrick who made the KIVA room available for the technical sessions and the Regent's Room for the Banquet. We also acknowledge the financial support of Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc. as a cosponsor of the conference.     

Book Reviews

Book Reviews
Chris Wild & George Seber, Chance Encounters: a First Course in Data Analysis and Inference
A. J. Underwood, Experiments in Ecology
Lawrence L. Lapin, Modern Engineering Statistics
M. E. Thompson, Theory of Sample Surveys
Fima C. Klebaner, Introduction to Stochastic Calculus with Applications
Frank Lad, Operational Subjective Statistical Methods: a Mathematical, Philosophical, and Historical Introduction     

World demographic processes and their determining factors

This is a general review of the International Conference on Population, which was held in Mexico in August 1984. The focus is on the Soviet viewpoints toward the various issues discussed at the conference.     

2011 Association of College and Research Libraries Conference

Abstract

The 2011 Association of College and Research Libraries (ACRL) conference theme, “A Declaration of Interdependence,” linked the conference to its physical location, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The all-conference reception on Friday night in the six-year-old National Constitution Center expressed the theme perfectly. Held biennially, the 2011 ACRL conference attracted its highest attendance ever: over 5,000 attendees (some virtual), vendors, speakers and guests. Attendee demographics were decidedly younger than those seen at recent general American Library Association (ALA) conferences.