旅游危机:类型、影响机制与管理模型

旅游危机是影响旅行者对一个目的地信心和扰乱继续正常经营的非预期性事件。文章分析了旅游危机的类型、影响内容、影响范围和影响机制,创建旅游危机时期潜在旅游者风险决策模型和旅游危机管理的模型,指出在危机的不同阶段应采取的管理措施和对策。     

基于ISM和在线评论的汤山温泉顾客满意度研究

温泉旅游迅速发展，引起了国内旅游学术研究的广泛关注，基于网上评论，数据驱动研究温泉顾客满意度和消费体验问题是一种新的模式。本文以南京汤山温泉度假区为例，基于来自携程和去哪儿网上的顾客评论数据，利用扎根理论对评价文本进行编码和范畴化，最后抽取出消费者情感、感知价值、目标人群、特色资源等11个温泉顾客满意度的影响因素。结合ISM和MICMAC方法进一步探索这些影响因素间的影响关系，构成温泉顾客满意度层次结构模型，揭示了提高满意度的影响路径和方法，为温泉旅游的发展提供有效的建议。     

韩国吸引中国游客的战略和方案

中国经济的持续增长,使新兴富豪和高收入阶层的人数不断扩大,从而成为对韩国极具吸引力的市场。本研究将就中国市场的潜在旅游需求进行评价,对中国游客对韩国的印象进行调查,并提出韩国吸引中国游客的战略和具体方案。     

Tourist profiles using discriminant analysis

How similar are tourists from the audiences of two or more advertising vehicles? The method of N-way multiple discriminant analysis was used for predicting magazine readership from key tourist variables from two samples of 300 coupon inquiries. Results of the analysis indicated similar tourist profiles existed among the readerships of the three magazines. Application of the method used in this study may be useful in the development of promotional themes to attract tourists from selected advertising vehicles and in identifying unique tourism characteristics for particular vehicles.     

The Health Risks of Energy Production

Any personal or societal activity, besides bringing us benefits, also carries some risk. Energy production and use are no exceptions. In order to judge these risks, they must be quantified, and the risks of all alternative methods of producing this energy must then be compared among each other. These risks originate in many parts of the energy cycle; they are diverse in character and involve different parts of the population. It is therefore necessary to discriminate between many aspects of risk so that only reasonably comparable categories are compared. The results of a critical analysis of the international risk literature are presented, which are applicable to power production plants as they could be built today in central European countries. This review pays special attention to the possibility of severe accidents occurring, which attract so much attention in our modern societies. It turns out that the health risks of routine nuclear energy production are lower than the risks of other energy options, particularly for the general public. The probability of a severe accident occurring is far higher for all conventional energy options. Only the renewable systems utilizing the energy of the sun and the wind are not susceptible to severe accidents.     

基于体验的顾客满意度模型研究——针对团队旅游的实证研究

在服务业中,顾客亲自参与服务的生产与消费,服务就是一种顾客体验,服务的本质和特性决定了顾客体验对于服务估价产生重要影响。在文献回顾的基础上,建立了基于体验的顾客满意度模型,并通过对北京、天津、西安、南京、杭州5个城市共计976名团队旅游消费者群体的实证调研,验证了模型的合理性。最后,为旅游企业提出了建议。     

准时生产方式下混流装配线的调度问题

混流装配线的调度问题是 JIT生产方式中的一个重要问题 .本文建立了多级混流装配线的调度模型 ,其目标是使不同生产级上各零部件的消耗量尽可能保持均匀 ,并用遗传算法和模拟退火进行求解 .试验表明 :遗传算法和模拟退火算法的求解质量比“目标追随法”有所提高     

European Integration and the Integration of European Labour Markets1

Abstract. Will European economic and monetary union bring about a unification of European labour markets, and is there likely to be a convergence of patterns of labour market organisation among Community countries? The evidence discussed suggests that a major increase in unskilled mobility across the EC is unlikely, at least concerning EC citizens. Among skilled labour, a major increase in international mobility is also unlikely on account of differences in skill organisation among countries. In contrast, the integration of European capital is causing some integration of enterprise internal labour markets across national borders as firms seek to integrate their managerial and technical workforces. In the “high-tech” area, skills are in a state of flux, and the possibility that European labour markets will emerge is much stronger than for other categories.     

游客重游意愿的决定规划:基于滨海生态旅游区的实证研究

游客的重游对旅游目的地的可持续发展有着重要的作用。本文在前人的基础上构建了基于计划行为理论和顾客满意理论的滨海生态旅游区游客重游意愿的理论模型,并以大连、青岛等北方滨海城市的游客为样本进行实证。最终验证了游客满意、态度、主观规范、感知行为控制、景区形象以及过去行为是影响游客重游意愿的主要因素,同时过去行为、服务品质通过游客满意和态度,景区形象、滨海生态旅游认知通过态度间接影响游客重游意愿,并针对分析结果对滨海生态旅游区的发展和管理提出了相应的建议和意见,最后讨论了研究展望。     

Prospects for the British hotel industry

There is currently a surplus of hotel accommodation in many towns and cities in the United Kingdom and in most countries of the world. Rationalization on a substantial scale is in progress and will inevitably continue as the pressures of the widespread economic recession force capacity and style more in line with the size and needs of the market. World economic recovery will, however, in due course bring speedier growth to tourism and higher occupancy to the British hotel industry as well as in other countries.

In this article the author outlines the situation and prospects in the hotel industry in Britain. He discusses the main economic and marketing problems facing the operators and in addition identifies the vital contribution required from the government in terms of the allocation of adequate ministerial resources, a co-ordinated national tourism policy and improved communications with the industry and the other parties involved.     

DOES INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT NEED A SEPARATE PERSPECTIVE?

This essay argues that it is difficult to justify intellectually a separate subject of international operations management. Nevertheless, courses with titles like that abound and other professional activities are centered on international operations, at least in the United States. Of course, there are real differences in management activities in different parts of the world that must be contended with. A comparison of European and U.S. managers' exposure to international business suggests that there is a higher startup cost for U.S. managers to do so. Drawing an analogy between the management of operations and the solving of a huge mathematical programming problem implies that there are few new variables introduced by going international, but that the weights on existing variables can change substantially. Therefore, even though difficult to justify intellectually, continuing to treat international operations management separately may provide us some short-term advantages. By helping us focus our attention on the important variables that change, it may provide us the insights to help reduce the startup cost for U.S. managers entering international operations.     

FRAGILE STATES AND DEVELOPMENT POLICY

It is widely recognized that fragile states are key symptoms of under‐development in many parts of the world. Such states are incapable of delivering basic services to their citizens and political violence is commonplace. As of yet, mainstream development economics has not dealt in any systematic way with such concerns and the implications for development assistance. This paper puts forward a framework for analyzing fragile states and applies it to a variety development policies in different types of states.     

Is Eradication of the Pinewood Nematode (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) Likely? An Evaluation of Current Contingency Plans

The pinewood nematode (PWN) is one of the worst tree‐killing exotic pests in East‐Asian countries. The first European record of establishment in Portugal in 1999 triggered extensive surveys and contingency plans for eradication in European countries, including immediate removal of large areas of conifer host trees. Using Norway as an example, we applied a simulation model to evaluate the chance of successful eradication of a hypothetical introduction by the current contingency plan in a northern area where wilting symptoms are not expected to occur. Despite a highly variable spread of nematode infestations in space and time, the probability of successful eradication in 20 years was consistently low (mean 0.035, SE 0.02). The low success did not change significantly by varying the biological parameters in sensitivity analyses (SA), probably due to the late detection of infestations by the survey (mean 14.3 years). SA revealed a strong influence of management parameters. However, a high probability of eradication required unrealistic measures: achieving an eradication probability of 0.99 in 20 years required 10,000 survey samples per year and a host tree removal radius of 8,000 m around each detection point.     

Personnel planning and information systems

Today the need for long-range planning is seen by most private and public organizations. Therefore growing attention to it is required of management in companies, in public services, in the armed services and in the school and university area. Some parts of the long-range planning problems have been widely discussed and practised. But there are some parts, which have received less attention in the business world. One of the relatively neglected areas, but one of special importance is long-range planning for personnel from the shop-floor up to top-management. This lack is remarkable, as one finds a lot of research and practical work on the use of other operations research planning systems, which cover for example queueing, inventory, production or investment problems. But in no field, is planning ahead more important than in personnel. Company growth and effectiveness depend on it. For unless a business organization has people with skill, imagination and a capacity for leadership, at the right time, its other plans may well be worthless.     

New Health Risks and Sociocultural Contexts: Bird Flu Impacts on Consumers and Poultry Businesses in Lao PDR

Avian flu has been identified as one of the most challenging new risks, global in impact due to the "highly interconnected and integrated world economy along with other unpredictable events such as the Asian financial crisis and global terrorism." We have chosen the case of Lao PDR to shed light on an area in which local people consume chicken as one of their staple foods. Our research analyzes consumer behavior, poultry business modification patterns in a high-risk country, and government reaction for business resilience. The geographic choice is motivated by the 2006 EIU report on Catastrophe Risk Management that indicated that Asian-Pacific companies are better prepared for such risks as bird flu than European business is, despite the many cases found in both regions.     

Sickness presenteeism and sickness absence over time: A UK employee perspective

This paper examined the influence of sickness presenteeism (SP), defined here as going to work despite illness, and sickness absenteeism (SA) behaviour on employee psychological well-being, work performance and perceived organisational commitment in a sample of 552 UK workers. Self-report measures were administered on 2 occasions, separated by 1 year, to employees from 4 public sector and 2 private sector organisations. Structural equation modelling was used to evaluate simultaneous influences of SP and SA on outcomes over time. Results suggested that employees reporting SP reported lower work performance in comparison to those reporting no SP, when measured concurrently but not over time. Employees reporting any SP in the previous 3 months showed relatively reduced psychological well-being but there was no significant association over time. Six or more days SP was associated with a reduction in employee perceptions that their organisation was committed to them, concurrently and over time. There were no significant influences of SA on any outcome measure. Our results strengthen previous research and suggest that SP, but not SA, has implications for individual outcomes. The findings have implications for the way organisations manage their sickness absence systems.     

The Informal European Parliamentary Working Group on Risk—History,Remit, and Future Plans: A Personal View

On September 5, 2012 the inaugural meeting of the European Parliamentary Working Group on Risk (WGR) took place in the European Parliament in Brussels. It is chaired by Mrs. Julie Girling (U.K. Conservative), Member of the European Parliament (MEP), and involves some 10–12 other MEPs representing a wide array of European political parties from across the EU member state countries, including Sweden, the Netherlands, and Hungary. The WGR is supported by a small secretariat reporting directly to Julie Girling MEP. In this background article of WGR, I discuss the background to why WGR was set up, the remit of the committee, and some of its possible future plans. I do this very much in a personal capacity, having suggested the formation of the committee in the first place and persuaded Mrs. Girling to chair it.     

Spatial planning in small islands: the need to discuss the concept of ecological structure

The concepts of green infrastructure and ecological structure (ES) are current topics of discussion among the scientific community and spatial planners. ES is mandatory in Portugal in land-planning, such as municipal master plans, but no consensus has been reached on how to implement it. The concept has not yet been implemented in the Azores, a Portuguese autonomous region, even though the Region has the responsibility of adapting legislation or accomplishing the Portuguese legislature. This study presents a critical analysis of the available literature about ES and proposes a conceptual framework to define ES for small islands, which have unique characteristics, focusing on the Azorean archipelago. The conceptual framework meets the requirements of local legislation and uses an ecological function approach that is increasingly advocated in recent European recommendations. This framework is presented as a strategic and flexible way to identify both the important elements (recognized in current legislation) in a territory and the remaining potential of the territory. The framework also supports decision-making by allowing the identification of integrated solutions, decreasing trade-offs as much as possible and reconciling the needs of nature conservation and socioeconomic development. This framework could be applied to other small islands and other territories, with local adaptations.     

不同权力结构下供应链概率销售策略比较研究

考虑供应链不同权力结构,探讨产品概率销售问题,分析消费者对产品不完全匹配敏感程度、概率产品组合比例等因素变化对其所产生的影响,并对三种不同权力结构进行比较分析。从研究结果来看,三种不同权力结构下产品批发价格、边际利润有所不同,且消费者对产品不完全匹配敏感程度及概率产品组合比例变化均对其产生影响,但影响程度在不同权力结构下会不同。数值分析进一步表明,弱化消费者对产品不匹配敏感程度或提升消费者购买概率产品的不确定性将有利于供应链实施概率销售策略。     

基于质量损失的交叉质量结构参数设计方法

本文根据复杂产品的复杂质量特性构成,提出了具有交叉性的质量结构,将田口方法中参数设计方法引入到具有交叉质量结构的产品质量设计中来。在一般田口参数设计基础上,将信噪比转化为标准质量损失,以多元回归分析为工具,以使复杂产品系统综合质量损失最小为目标,确定各设计参数的设计水平,并以实例验证了所提方法的可行性和有效性。