We must pay attention to the difference between the original intention and the current status of family planning]

Due to imperfections in the current family planning (FP) policy, and the differences un program implementation in urban and rural areas, the fertility of the urban population with higher IQ scores is under control but this is not the case for the rural population. Among rural couples, one child is rare and two or three are commonplace, while in cities over 70% of couples are having one child. In the metropolitan cities, this figure is about 90%. In the rural areas, provision of education is a serious problem because of insufficient resources, a lack of qualified teachers and inadequate facilities. At the present, at least 3 million school age children in rural areas can not go to primary school. Besides there is a big contrast in FP practice between Han nationality and minorities. Population growth is basically under control among the more advanced Han nationally but not among the less advances minority nationalities. This growth rate among the minority population was about 50.27/1000 in the past five years, which is alarming. Furthermore, the couples given opportunity to have a second child are often those whose first child had birth defects or is mentally retarded, whereas couples with a normal child can have only one child. This has become a vicious circle, since subsequent children are more likely to have the same birth defects. It was discovered from a 1983-85 survey that the prevalence of birth defects was 12.8/1000. The current situation is that the fertility of urban, educated, and healthy people is restricted while the less educated, those living in less developed areas, and those with health defects are having more children. The outcome of this situation is the decline of national population quality, which greatly deviates from the original intention of the FP.     

The family planning law should be issued as soon as possible]

China is facing a baby boom in the next ten years. Now is a perfect time to formulate legislature on family planning (FP) to strengthen the current policy and regulations in order to slow the momentum of excessive population growth. As a result of current economic reform and implementation of the rural household responsibility system, the migrant population has increased tremendously. The fact that millions of rural farmers are shifting to non-agricultural areas created new challenges to the effectiveness of traditional measures of the FP program. Promulgating laws and legislature will facilitate the job of FP. The law should stress the restriction of population growth and encouraging one child per couple. In the rural area it is not feasible to implement the one child policy indiscriminately. Under the policy of one child for a majority of the couples, no third birth is permitted. Local governments should be given the authorization to grant permission for second births for special cases within the birth planning quota. Allowing people living in poor and less developed areas to have more children and granting mothers of handicapped children permission to have an additional child were in fact facilitating the deterioration of the quality of the population. Some current policy in rural income distribution and social welfare was beneficial to large-sized family. Such policies should be changed to give incentives to small-sized families.     

The differential effects and considerations of family planning programs in basic units]

It has been discovered that the grassroots units that did not well in family planning (FP) programs in China were short of funding, while those units that performed poorly had more funds at their disposal. One of the reasons is that communities which did a good job in FP have less violations of the birth policy, and therefore, fewer fines could be collected by the FP unit. But in those grassroots units were the FP policy was not well implemented, there were more cases of births exceeding the birth quota, and more fines could be collected. Such an outcome was penalizing the diligent and rewarding those who did not work hard. This phenomenon was caused by a severe short fall of funding for the FP program. The program budget allocated by the local government was only 1/5 of what was needed, the remaining part was to be provided by fines. The negative consequences of such a practice was damaging to the morale of FP workers. The following suggestions were make for solving the problem. First, the government budget allocation to the FP program should be increased, and part of the budget allocation should be determined by the performance of the FP program. Second, the spending of income from FP fines should be closely monitored to prevent misuse of the fund. Third, fine collection should not be used as means of income generation for the program, and not other agencies should reallocate the funds from fines. Fourth, the government and FP agencies at all administrative levels should pay attention to the management of funds from fines. FP organizations at higher levels should be able to reallocate the funds from fines collected by units with a poor performance to the units with good program performance as an incentive and to supplement their income.     

“社会养老”是否淡化了“子女责任”观念？--来自中国农村居民的经验证据

参保行为与养老观念存在双向因果关系,倾向于子女养老的居民参加养老保险的概率较低,而参加养老保险也改变着居民的养老观念。通过联立方程模型以及工具变量控制内生性后,得出了养老保险淡化“子女养老”观念的净效应,进而指出养老保险制度不仅挤出了子女对老人的经济支持,同时也弱化了人们的家庭养老观念。国家大力推行的养老保障体系在行为与观念两个层面上挤出了家庭养老,以国家制度化养老保障体系为主体的社会养老模式对家庭养老模式具有替代性。在养老模式的变迁中要综合考虑各主体的功能与责任,联合各界力量共同承担社会养老责任。     

新型农村社会养老保险农民缴费意愿的可持续性分析

拥有财政补助政策是新农保制度最有吸引力的地方。选取养老金净转入额、农民参保缴费的机会成本来分析农民缴费意愿的可持续性,发现新农保是一项纯受益赚钱的制度,出于安全性、稳健性和收益性等方面的考虑,一个理性的农民是不会随便放弃参加新农保的。利用对湖北省仙桃市的实地调研数据进行分析发现：72．4％的农民有缴费意愿;性别、是否了解新农保政策、对自己未来老年生活的担心程度等变量,对农民的缴费意愿有显著的影响。为实现农民缴费意愿的可持续性,建议加强新农保的宣传。实现政府政务公开;落实好“长缴多补”政策;加强新农保的行政推动．适时改为强制参保。     

The erosion of the family: A study of the fate of the family in Ghana

Abstract In Ghana, as in other developing countries, it has been held that one cultural element acting towards the maintenance of high fertility has been the awareness that large families do more than small ones to ensure assistance to parents during sickness and especially during old age. The only experience known to the society of the fortunes of those in the latter condition is necessarily that of those who are already old and need such assistance. During 1963-64 a survey of 800 retired persons over 60 years of age was made in Ghana. Respondents of each sex were randomly selected within the urban southern rural and northern rural areas of the country. An examination was made of the effects of mortality and other factors in reducing the amount of possible assistance given by their children below the potential maximum determined by the original level of births. Differentials in fertility by area of present residence were discovered. It was shown that, although the average number of children supporting aged parents is greater in the case of large families, the extent of the assistance is not proportional to original family size, because of differentials in mortality, the chances of survivors reaching adulthood by their parents' old age, and the chances of adult survivors being able or willing to give such assistance. Only families who had between one and four children presented their parents with any considerable risk of receiving no help from their children. It was shown that there are grounds for conflict between the need for maximising assistance by having as many children as possible and by educating as many as possible. It was also shown that there is little evidence that parents consciously make such decisions in order to create an individual 'social welfare' system in that an extension of the state social welfare system would not, according to respondents, do much to change their views about desired family size.     

A preliminary inquiry about the problem of second births outside the plan]

In 1981, the population growth in China was revived and showed a new trend towards a rapid increase. In general, the rate of numerous births in one household was down, the rate for a second birth outside the plan was up sharply, and the number for a second birth outside the plan exceeded the number for multiple births in average families. As a result, how to control the second birth outside the plan has become a crucial problem for population control. Under present conditions, numerous births in each household are normally related to the financial situation of each household, the sex of earlier births, and the educationa background of the parents. The current increase in second births is not caused by financial reasons. Instead, it is caused by social and psychological reasons. The traditional belief in favor of having more male children for security in one's old age and for continuation of one's family line is still deeply rooted in the people's minds. In order to eliminate such tradtional influence, more work in ideological education is needed so that the common people may understand the need for birth control and change their traditional view on population. With the establishment of a responsible production system in the rural areas, measures for economic restriction and reward should be taken. In addition, late marriages should be enouraged, and a new tax system based upon population count in each household should be adopted so that additional revenues may be collect for educational and other expenses, and social insurance for old people should be expanded. If all these measures are taken successfully, the problem of second births outside the plan can be solved.     

Comparison and fairness in family planning]

There are two kinds of comparison in family planning (FP) practice. First, people compare the number of children they have with their desired family size. Second, people compare their number of children with other's. The extent of their satisfaction from the comparison often depends on their expectation. And people's expectation about their family size may have an impact on the level of fertility. One task in a FP program is to regulate people's objects for comparison and to reduce the number of children they expect to have. But, changes in people's desired number of children are largely dependent upon the socio economic charges which can not be achieved in short time. Therefore, it would be more advisable to direct people to compare their fertility behavior with those of couples who have only one child, rather than those who have 3 or 4. Satisfaction with family size also comes from a feeling of fairness. People not only look at what they get, but also at what others get. Fairness and justice in FP program implementation is important. If those who violate local birth control policies and regulations are not properly punished, other people would feel that the situation is unfair and they would regret that they did not do the same. The pressure brought by over-population to socio-economic development has been gradually felt by most people. But, it is still difficult to have them strictly observe the present fertility regulation policy. If restrictions of various kinds are enforced and education and publicity are used, people will feel that they are being treated fairly. This will facilitate the promotion of the FP program.     

Initially analyzing the characteristics and evaluated indexes in rural areas and making relative policies]

20% of rural family planning (FP) programs in China have an unsatisfactory performance. A study was conducted in four townships with poor FP program performance in Pengxi County, Sichuan Province. Some common characteristics of these townships are as follows. Lack of concern about the FP program on the part of the local leadership. 2) Resistance of local people to FP communication and education; 96% of 426 families interviewed wanted to have 2 children, and only 3.7% wanted 1 child. 3) Lack of enforcement of the incentives and disincentives stipulated in the FP policy. 4) Lack of service delivery back-up in FP programs with a shortage of trained professional staff to provide clinical services and a shortage of the necessary medical facilities or equipment to meet the needs of FP service delivery. 5) The large number of early marriages, early child-births, extra-marital child-births without quota. At the present time, there is not specific quantitative standard to evaluate the FP program performance in a particular district. 3 indicators are appropriate for comparison of program performance. 1) Has the annual birth control target for the district been met? 2) The percentage of births with in the FP quota. Under 60% of births within the quota should be considered poor performance. 3) Over 20% of unplanned pregnancies reflect poor performance in the areas of birth control education, and contraceptive service delivery. The following are suggestions for solving the problems of poor program performance. 1) Community leaders should be evaluated on a per capita production output value rather than on total value. Their achievements should also be linked with their salary increases, promotions and bonuses. 2) One-child families should have a priority in receiving financial aids for development. 3) Governmental and non-government organizations should work together to promote the implementation of FP policies. 4) Service delivery systems should be strengthened by promoting population and FP education to families and in schools. Funding should be made available to increase the capability of birth control service delivery in terms of staff training, provision of equipment and housing and improvement in the quality of services. 5. Full use should be made of the potential of village leaders to take personal responsibility for every aspect of the FP.     

Shift the focus of family-planning work to one couple giving birth to one child--an investigative report on family-planning conditions in Shifang County]

Sheng-Fang county of Sichuan province, China, is famous for its successful birth control program. The rate of natural increase declined from 32% in 1970 to 2.6% in 1979 with a 99.3% rate of planned birth. Each couple averaged only 2 children in 1978 but, with population increasing faster than the food supply, there was still room for improvement. In order to reach the goal of a 5% rate of natural increase in 1985 and a 0% rate in the year 2000, it was necessary to advocate "one couple one child". With 90% of the families complying with this rule, the goal could nearly be met. Instilling this norm in a rural area where childbearing has traditionally been valued, especially for old age security, required careful educating of the population. A campaign was conducted to inform the people of the benefits to the country, the community, and themselves of smaller families. Incentive programs reinforced the lessons. The Party leaders considered instillation of the 1-child/family norm a top priority and worked to put it into effect. The educational work must continue, to reach newly married couples and to maintain the resolve of couples reached earlier. Child health programs were improved as well as old age security programs to obviate the need for extra children.     

We must complete the population control system to control the population peak and achieve our population goal]

Since 1986, China has experienced another baby boom which is expected to last till 1997. If no effective measure is implemented to check population growth, the population target of around 1.2 billion will not be achieved. The author proposed four population regulation mechanisms that need to be strengthened. First, ideological education needs to be used to change people's perceptions about family size, so that couples would willingly accept small families. Second, financial incentives and penalties need to be used to direct people to regulate their fertility. The incentive and penalty technique directly affect the interests of the family and is likely to produce rapid results. Third, legislation can be used to regulate reproductive behavior, the laws and legislation which restrict social behavior should be utilized for population control purposes. Once legislation on fertility regulation is passed, those who violate the law can be penalized. Furthermore, legislation gives family planning (FP) workers legitimacy in implementing the program and can help avoid disputes in the process of FP program implementation. Fourth, provision of contraception and abortion services is an important mechanism to ensure the realization of the objectives of population growth control. Meanwhile, the effectiveness of contraceptive methods and the acceptance of abortion depends on the research and development of contraceptive technology and on abortion techniques. These fertility regulatory mechanisms have not be adequately established, and their functions have not been fully utilized. The current FP program is hampered by simplistic ideological education, abusive use of incentives and penalties, lack of legislation, and unmet needs in contraceptive development. To achieve the population targets, these mechanisms need to be strengthened.     

吉林省农村养老保险发展状况分析

近年来 ,吉林省农村养老保险覆盖面降低 ,新增保险人数增长乏力 ,退保人数增加 ,保险金收入下降 ,农村养老保险呈全面萎缩状态。导致农村养老保险发展缓慢 ,甚至出现萎缩的原因主要包括 :农民收入增长缓慢、集体经济薄弱、生产方式落后、保险工作方式等因素。完善农村养老保险制度、提高农民收入水平、增加集体经济积累、促进农业机械化和产业化的发展 ,以及发展多种形式的农村养老保障制度是解决农村养老问题的关键     

Fertility trends in Taiwan: Tradition and change

Fertility rates have been falling In Taiwan for several years. The declines appear to be general throughout the island, and are occurring mainly in the age groups above 50, as would be expected if there are beginnings of family limitation. There are indications that the fertility rates are negatively correlated with indices of modernization In local areas. Several pilot studies indicate a consensus in the population on the desirability of a moderate number of children, the desirability of the Idea of family planning, a positive valuation of such traditional Chinese values as the joint family and support of parents by their children In old age. In one urban area studied, a substantial minority of wives 25–29 years old have used a family planning method already. The “pre-pregnancy health program” of the Provincial Health Department has been quite successful in providing service to interested couples, and among these couples the programme is demonstrably effective in reducing birth rates. Data from the various sources are consistent with the speculation that Taiwanese couples want to use modern family planning methods to maintain elements of the traditional Chinese family in a modern setting.     

The Consequences of Reproductive Failure: Dependence,Mobility, and Mortality among the Elderly of Rural South Asia

This paper examines the proposition that the economic mobility of persons in rural South Asia is affected by their reproductive outcomes: specifically, that reproductive failure (defined as the failure to rear a surviving son) entails material loss. Underlying this proposition is the notion that sons in this setting constitute an important source of insurance against the risk of income insufficiency in old age and in a variety of other contingencies. Analysis of data on living arrangements of the elderly in several rural South Asian communities and histories of asset gain and loss suggest that the consequences of reproductive failure include higher mortality risks and a high probability of property loss, that these consequences are more severe for women than for men, and are considerably more severe in rural Bangladesh than in the sampled areas of rural India.     

A preliminary survey of specialized households with single children in Tianjin rural areas

A preliminary survey of specialized households with single children in Tianjian rural areas was carried out in order to understand the impact of the economic system reform on family planning programs. Out of 180,000 specialized households, 37,000 are those of young peasants under 35, accounting for 24% of the total specialized households. The survey showed that family planning publicity could be improved in 4 ways. A change in the peasants' concept of childbearing in favor of family planning should be actively promoted. Publicity efforts should be strengthened. Both the content and methods of family planning education and publicity should be improved. Publicity should be integrated with service. Centers of publicity and guidance should become centers of publicity and service. Family planning workers should become close friends of young couples of reproductive age. Education must be integrated with service. A recent trend of having fewer children has set in. This change manifests itself in 3 ways: the state policy of making the people rich greatly encourages young couples to devote themselves to pioneering causes; after becoming rich, the peasants become aware that they should have healthier and better educated children; when the peasants become rich they worry less about their old age and other problems. The recent trend toward early marriage in rural areas should be curbed.     

Current primary investigation on the view of family planning of Chinese peasants]

The ideal number of children for 850 couples among 10 cities or counties and 20 villages in China were surveyed. Of the 850, only 1 wanted unlimited children, which accounted for 0.12% of the couples. About 33 desired more than 5, which accounted for 3.9%. However, most of the couples, about 81.4%, prefer 2 or 3 children. 3.2% of the couples were happy with 1 child in their life. In China, peasants still want more children because of their economic situation. There is no retirement and health insurance in the countryside, and the major labor force is in field work. Some consider males as better able to keep family heritage intact. Also, there is difference between agricultural and nonagricultural couples. Comparing the percentage of couples who want 2-3 children, 80% in agricultural sector and 92% in nonagricultural sector desired this number. The remainder of the agricultural group desired more than 3 children. Since economic reform started in the countryside in the early 80s, effects on fertility are seen. One is that peasants want more children because of a rising need for labor. On the other hand, many more opportunities are available to change careers and obtain more education, lowering fertility. However, a rise in fertility is predicted as people concentrate more on economic reform and economic development, increasing their need for children.     

欠发达地区新型农村社会养老保险需求分析——以陕西省佳县为例

文章旨在通过对调研数据模型化分析,分别从参保意愿和缴费能力两方面描述农村居民对农村社会养老保险的有效需求状况,并探索影响缴费意愿和缴费能力的因素,从而全面分析农村社会养老保险的需求。同时提出可行性建议,为当地政府和其他欠发达地区新型农村社会养老保险制度的实施提供必要的参考。     

Implementing the birth policy to village as the grass-roots unit]

At the present time, the emphasis of the birth control program in China is in the rural areas where it is harder to implement a birth control policy. A new initiative taken in Liaoning Province to certify rural villages in family planning (FP) practice has proved to be successful. 6 criteria have to be met by a rural village to be qualified for certification: 1) an adequate FP organizational network, 2) comprehensive coverage of publicity and education program activities, 3) satisfactory FP program implementation, 4) extensive usage of contraceptive methods, 5) good quality service delivery, and 6) efficient program management. Specific regulations on organizational structure, educational activities, policy implementation, contraceptive supply, data collection and reporting, and management of finances have also been formulated to promote the certification process. Packages of incentives and disincentives have been established to integrate FP program implementation with the responsibilities, decision-making powers, and personal benefits of the leaders and the village community. The sense of birth control practice as a communal endeavor in villages has also been created under these regulations. Over 80% of villages in Liaoning province have now been certified. Various birth control model villages have been set up to promote the FP program elsewhere.     

中国农村老年人养老规划的现状及影响因素研究

制定养老规划是农村老年人积极应对养老风险的重要举措。利用中国老年社会追踪调查2018年数据,文章分析了农村老年人的养老规划现状及其影响因素,发现约34.6%的农村老年人实际有养老规划,约13.8%的老年人误判了自身的养老规划状况;现金储蓄是农村老年人的主要规划方式。相比农村居住的非留守老年人,农村留守老年人和进城农村老年人有养老规划的比例更高。农村老年人的经济收入对其是否做养老规划既存在显性影响,也具有通过养老观念的中介作用而表现出的显著的隐含影响。在养老责任观念的中介作用下,认同由政府和社会承担养老责任的养老观念会促使有劳动收入、子女给予经济支持和有新型农村养老保险的老年人做养老规划的可能性下降。     

Family composition and marital dissolution in rural Nepal, 1945–2008

The presence, number, sex, and age composition of children within families can have important influences on couples’ marital outcomes. Children are valued across settings, but their value in settings where there is an absence of formalized social security is distinctive. This paper explores the influences of childlessness, and different number, age, and sex compositions of children, on the odds of marital dissolution among couples in rural Nepal. Results reveal that childless couples face significantly higher odds of dissolution than couples with at least one child, and each additional child—up to three children—reduces couples’ odds of dissolution. Furthermore, having a child aged under two reduces couples’ odds of marital dissolution, but interactions reveal that this age effect only holds at parity one. Surprisingly, despite a history of son preference in this setting, there is no evidence that children’s within-parity sex composition is associated with the odds of marital dissolution.