The cylindrical structure of political involvement

This research is devoted to a methodological study of interrelations among varieties of involvement in political issues, utilizing data designed and gathered in the context of the Israel election campaign for the Seventh Knesset in 1969. The observations on political involvement were defined by means of a mapping sentence. The interrelations were studied by calculating a weak monotonicity coefficient between each pair of variables. This correlation matrix was submitted to a smallest space analysis (SSA-I) in order to help ascertain the correspondence between the structure of the matrix and the facets of political issues in the mapping sentence. It is hypothesized that the regression of one form of involvement on another should be monotone and of positive sign. Such a ‘first law’ of involvement does hold empirically here. Furthermore, the structure of the intercorrelation matrix can be represented geometrically by a cylindrical interpretation of the SSA space which corresponds to the facet design of the varieties of involvement. The axis of the cylinder distinguishes between instrumental and cognitive involvement, while the circularity within strata of the cylinder corresponds to the facet of political issues which are the objects of the involvement.     

Population and the environment: Polls,policies, and public opinion

Although recent academic and popular attention has argued for a wedding between population and environmental problems and policies, the scientific knowledge base for these topics has grown separately and at differential rates. Environmental research has grown faster than population research, while the joint treatment of these topics remains in its infancy. International polls that have included many questions concerning environmental attitudes have included far fewer on population. The few surveys on population attitudes have ignored the environment. The World Fertility Survey and the Demographic and Health Survey are fertility, rather than population, surveys. They have been useful in precipitating national policies on family planning, but are poor models for needed attitudinal and cognitive research on population and the environment. Some contemporary polls, such as the UNDEP sponsored poll conducted by the Louis Harris Agency, have serious methodological defects. Others, such as the 1992 Gallup poll, contain valuable data from which future surveys could profit. The conclusion outlines the need for a new multinational survey of Population/Environment Knowledge, Attitude and Practice (PEKAP).An earlier version of this paper was published in Clarke, John and Leon Tabah (1995).Population—Environment—Development. Paris: CICRED.     

The Schooling Experience of Lesbian,Gay, and Bisexual Youth in lsrael: Falling Below and Rising Above as a Matter of Social Ecology

ABSTRACT

Research on the schooling experience of lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) youth in Israel and in other Western countries has been largely risk-focused, whereas extrinsic and intrinsic protective factors, which enable LGB adolescent students to cope with school homophobic bullying, are often overlooked. To address this shortcoming, the researchers conducted a qualitative study based on semistructured interviews with 20 LGB-identified secondary school students. The findings and implications emphasized the key role of adequate ecological protective factors for LGB youth in enhancing effective coping mechanisms in response to school homophobic bullying.     

Population aging and endogenous economic growth

We investigate the consequences of population aging for long-run economic growth perspectives. Our framework incorporates endogenous growth models and semi-endogenous growth models as special cases. We show that (1) increases in longevity have a positive impact on per capita output growth, (2) decreases in fertility have a negative impact on per capita output growth, (3) the positive longevity effect dominates the negative fertility effect in case of the endogenous growth framework, and (4) population aging fosters long-run growth in the endogenous growth framework, while its effect depends on the relative change between fertility and mortality in the semi-endogenous growth framework.     

International labor migration and social security: Analysis of the transition path

This paper numerically simulates a two-country overlapping-generations model to study international labor migration when the two countries are characterized by different social-security systems. The present analysis extends previous work beyond steady-state considerations. The most striking result is that in all cases considered, dynamically efficient and inefficient economies in autarkic steady-state, migration leads to temporary welfare losses in both countries. In all cases, the transition path is characterized by temporary dynamic inefficiency in one country.All correspondence to Doris Geide-Stevenson. We would like to thank an anonymous referee for very helpful comments. We are responsible for any remaining errors. Responsible editor: Christoph M. Schmidt.     

The Middle East population puzzle

An overview is provided of Middle Eastern countries on the following topics; population change, epidemiological transition theory and 4 patterns of transition in the middle East, transition in causes of death, infant mortality declines, war mortality, fertility, family planning, age and sex composition, ethnicity, educational status, urbanization, labor force, international labor migration, refugees, Jewish immigration, families, marriage patterns, and future growth. The Middle East is geographically defined as Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Gaza and the West Bank, Iran, Turkey, and Israel. The Middle East's population grew very little until 1990 when the population was 43 million. Population was about doubled in the mid-1950s at 80 million. Rapid growth occurred after 1950 with declines in mortality due to widespread disease control and sanitation efforts. Countries are grouped in the following ways: persistent high fertility and declining mortality with low to medium socioeconomic conditions (Jordan, Oman, Syria, Yemen, and the West Bank and Gaza), declining fertility and mortality in intermediate socioeconomic development (Egypt, Lebanon, Turkey, and Iran), high fertility and declining mortality in high socioeconomic conditions (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates), and low fertility and mortality in average socioeconomic conditions (Israel). As birth and death rates decline, there is an accompanying shift from communicable diseases to degenerative diseases and increases in life expectancy; this pattern is reflected in the available data from Egypt, Kuwait, and Israel. High infant and child mortality tends to remain a problem throughout the Middle East, with the exception of Israel and the Gulf States. War casualties are undetermined, yet have not impeded the fastest growing population growth rate in the world. The average fertility is 5 births/woman by the age of 45. Muslim countries tend to have larger families. Contraceptive use is low in the region, with the exception of Turkey and Egypt and among urban and educated populations. More than 40% of the population is under 15 years of age. The region is about 50% Arabic (140 million). Educational status has increased, particularly for men; the lowest literacy rates for women are in Yemen and Egypt. The largest countries are Iran, Turkey, and Egypt.     

Life tables for worker honeybees

Summary Life tables for worker honeybees covering all life span, and those for adults, were prepared for three seasonal cohorts,June bees, July bees andwintering bees. Survivorship curves forJune andJuly bees show a convex type being exceptional for insects, with relatively high mortality at egg and feeding larval stages and at later adult stage after most bees became potential foragers. Adult longevity greatly lengthens inWinteriing bees and survivorship curve drops approximately with the same rate. A remarkable similarity of survivorship curves for men and honeybees was demonstrated, apparently due to highly developed social care in both. Some comments were given on mortality factors. The importance of life tables for population researches was shown by applying our result to the population growth curve made byBodenheimer, based upon the data byNolan. At the asymptote of the uncorrected curve, the ratio of total population estimated by uncorrected curve to that by corrected curve reaches about 3∶2. Contribution No. 821 from the Zoological Institute, Faculty of Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan. Contributions from JIBP-PT No. 45. This study was in part supportod by a grant in aid from the Ministry of Education for the special project research, “Studies on the dynamic status of biosphere.” Population and bioeconomic studies on the honeybee colonies. II. We express our sincere thanks to Dr. YosiakiIt?, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Tokyo, for his kind stimulation and advices to the present work.     

A semi‐Markovian approach to using event history data in multiregional demography

As a first step towards infusing event‐history analysis into multiregional demography, this paper introduces a semi‐Markovian framework and outlines its salient features as differentiated from a pure Markovian framework. Specifically, what differentiates the former from the latter is an explicit consideration of duration‐dependence in migrating from one region to another. This duration‐dependence is one of the complexities involved in using event‐history data in multiregional demography. The use of event‐history data lends itself easily to defining basic probabilities involved in a semi‐Markovian framework directly on sample paths of individuals. The underlying concepts of a semi‐Markov process in the special case of time‐homogeneity or age‐independence of transition probabilities are given in a coherent and concise form. Illustrations of empirical applications to the event‐history data on migration as provided by the Korean National Migration Survey conducted in 1983, and of distinct features of the semi‐Markovian analysis through a parametrization of the basic probabilities are also given in this paper.     

Dynamic patterning of concerns: A long-term comparison of the structure of hopes and fears of Israelis

The patterning of human concerns over time is investigated, using data from two surveys on concerns conducted in Israel in 1962 and 1975 respectively. Both studies used identical questions developed by Hadley Cantril-open-ended questions in which the respondent described either his personal or his country's future in positive and/or in negative terms. Concerns were defined by three major facets: their evaluative direction, their psychological immediateness, and the life-area to which they pertain. Time and salience were considered indirectly. A basic structure was predicted: the patterning of concerns would remain relatively stable over the years. In the event, only a patterning by life-areas emerged, primarily for the personal concerns, but is was found to remain relatively stable over time. Hopes and fears on both personal and national issues intermingled in an overall configuration of the major concerns.     

Optimal age of retirement and population growth

The purpose of this paper is to study intergenerational optimal resources sharing when the social planer can choose the retirement age in addition to consumptions and investment. We use the extension of the Diamond analysis by Hu [1979] that incorporates endogenous retirement age. We found that the optimal retirement age is an increasing function of the population growth rate if the elasticity of substitution of old agents' labor for young agents' labor is lower than one. In the millian case, when the size of a population does not matter, and when the elasticity of substitution of old agents' labor for young agents' labor is strictly higher than one, the optimal retirement age is a decreasing function of the population growth rate. In the benthamite case, the change in the optimal retirement age is indeterminate. Received: 19 February 1999/Accepted: 27 February 2001 All correspondence to Bertrand Crettez. We would like to thank Jean-Pierre Vidal for very helpful comments on an earlier draft. An anonymous referee provided insightful comments on a previous version of this paper. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno.     

Residential quality assessment: A conceptual model and empirical test

This paper presents a model for the study of perceived residential quality based on the conept that qualities are the criteria by which people evaluate their neighborhood. The assessment of neighborhood attributes is characterized by three groups of variables: qualities, resources and qualities with respect to specific resources. This categorization is presented in a two dimensional matrix which provides for a systematic selection of variables before a study is undertaken, and straightforward analytical procedures once the data are registered. The concept of “qualities as criteria” coupled with the matrix framework provoke the creative search for alternative resources to compensate for deficient qualities in the neighborhood context. Results of applying the model in five deprived neighborhoods in Israel are presented.     

Social security policy with public debt in an aging economy

This paper analyzes a social security policy with public debt in an overlapping generations growth model. In particular, the paper considers a situation in which population aging causes a heavy burden of social security payments where public debt is issued by the government to finance the payment. In the model presented below, an economy with an aging population may achieve two dynamically inefficient equilibria. Under certain conditions, the effects of pension reform and population aging on capital accumulation are entirely different between the two equilibria. Received: 23 July 2001/Accepted: 22 August 2002 I am deeply grateful to an anonymous referee and Professor A. Cigno, the Editor of this journal, for their valuable comments and suggestions. I am also grateful to Kazuyo Tanimoto and Kiheiji Nishida for their research assistance. Any remaining errors are my own. The research reported here was conducted as part of a larger study, the “Project on Intergenerational Equity” at the Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. Financial support from Kani Hoken Bunka Zaidan is also gratefully acknowledged. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno.     

Immigrants in the UK and in West Germany –Relative income position,income portfolio,and redistribution effects

Based on data from the BHPS and the SOEP, we analyse the economic performance of various ethnic groups in the UK and West Germany, as well as the effects of income redistribution on these populations. Taking the indigenous population of each country as the reference category, we find that, as a whole, the non-indigenous population in the UK fares much better than the immigrant population in Germany. However, the range of economic performance across different ethnic groups in the UK is much larger than that in Germany. The German corporatist welfare system is characterised by much stronger redistribution effects than the liberal UK one. Consequently, the relatively low-performing immigrant population in Germany profits more from the redistribution system than immigrants with similar socio-economic attributes in the UK.All correspondence to Felix Büchel. Responsible editor: Christoph M. Schmidt     

The Use of Correspondence Analysis to Develop a Scale to Measure Workplace Morale from Multi-level Data

This paper focuses on the issue of comparing social groups or collectivities using measures derived from individual-level multivariate data. In this case, groups need to be differentiated such that: (a) between-group differences are maximized; (b) within-group differences are minimised; and (c) `differences' are calibrated to a scale that reflects a set indicators or observed variables.This paper demonstrates empirically how correspondence analysis can achieve this. It presents a scale of `workplace morale' derived from the responses of employees in a large sample of workplaces to questions concerning satisfaction with various facets of their job and their workplace. The scale derived through correspondence analysis is shown to achieve the three criteria described above.     

Fertility trends in rural Hebei Province,People's Republic of China

Background: The People's Republic of China (PRC) has conducted several different population policies since its establishment. Although fertility has declined dramatically in the past three decades, the degree to which this was the result of the different population policies is still under debate. Purpose: We attempt to evaluate the effect of the different formal population policies conducted in the PRC by looking at the fertility behavior of rural women. Unlike urban women, rural women experienced less social control (in the absence of a work unit) and received fewer benefits from adhering to the one-child policy. Data: The data analyzed were collected from a stratified sample of households from 288 villages in 9 counties of Hebei Province, PRC, between 1996 and 1999. The number of children ever born was reported by 4,168 ever-married women aged 25 and over who had had at least one birth. Findings: Our analysis indicates that the formal population policies of the PRC had little effect on the number of children ever born to rural women in Hebei. These retrospective data, by cohort, indicate consistently declining fertility since the revolution (1949). Limited child bearing was associated with age and the level of education. Controlling for the effect of age and education, women born after 1960, at whom the one-child policy was directed, actually had more children than older women. Conclusions: The Chinese fertility decline, at least as reflected in the experience of rural women in Hebei Province, derived mainly from secular changes in women's access to education and other social resources rather than from the direct effects of population policies.     

Turbulent dynamics in a Xviith century population

A reconstruction of the population of the Pays de Caux (1589–1700) yields the time series of a fertility behavior indicator, the overall Coale index If. In spite of the noisy appearance of its evolution, the trajectory of If looks ordered, as if it were confined alternatively to two given zones, looping in each of them for a while, then suddenly jumping from the low one to the higher one, or slowly whirling down from the high to the low one.

An attempt is made to explain this general temporal structure by using a simulation model based on the autoregulation model (the so‐called European Marriage Pattern), putting into play a choice of the spouse function, a fertility function, modalities of marriage and remarriage, under the environmental forcing of the reconstructed mortality conditions.

The correspondence between reconstruction and simulation turns out to be quite good, not only for the population size or the Coale index, but also for the marriage series, quite independently of the reconstructioa

A second simulation with simulated mortality conditions shows a bifurcation point: as the mean frequency of crisis increases, the state of the system leaves the lower level and concentrates more and more in the higher level.

Thus, not only does the autoregulator model appear validated by empirical data, but its bi‐modal structure is revealed, depicting the dynamic response of a traditional community both to the environment and to the endogeneous demographic process.     

Demography in China: from zero to now

After 20 years of neglect the study of population and demography in China have come to be considered imperative. China has even accepted $50 million from the UN Fund for Population Activities to defray the cost of the 1982 census and help pay for action, training, and research programs. Institutions directed toward population studies have been established in many provinces during the 1970s. The principal types are population training and research institutes and offices within institutions of higher learning. In addition institutes outside the system of higher education and special units of population studies in various medical colleges were initiated. Between 1957-77 the large increase in population began to cause economic problems which were not admitted until the late 1970s. Since 1979 the country's efforts to lower the level of fertility have been organized in major policy statements calling for 1 child/couple and a rate of natural increase causing zero population growth by the year 2000. The Institute of Population Research was created in 1974 and it has provided population projections that have helped form population policy with a major focus on historical stages of growth in China as well as counteracting the lopsided population optimism which existed earlier. In 1978 a conference was held on the science of population theory which identified areas for study such as: 1) population and economics, 2) capitalist population theories, 3) population policies, 4) family planning and economics, and 5) population problems in foreign countries. The author describes some of the literature which was published after the 1978 conference and the reappearance of academic journals in 1979 as well as the 1979 conference. 1980 and 1981 studies dealt with such topics as debates on Malthusian theory, zero population growth, urban and rural populations, historical demography, housing, employment, health improvement of the population, minorities, and fertility determinants. Chinese scholars have also begun to cooperate with their foreign colleagues in a variety of studies. In order to illustrate the wide variety of directions which Chinese population studies are taking the author provides a bibliography of population studies from 1977-81.     

Insight into ethnic flux: Marriage patterns among jews of mixed ancestry in Israel

Increases in ethnic and racial intermarriage in immigrant countries have led to growing proportions of persons of mixed ancestry and backgrounds. The marriage patterns of these persons both reflect and affect the salience and meaning of current forms of ethnicity and race in these societies. This article analyzes the marriage behavior of children of ethnically mixed unions in the Jewish population of Israel. Among persons of mixed ancestry, educational attainment plays a large role in whether they marry Ashkenazim or less economically advantaged Mizrahim. Such patterns suggest that intermarriage in Israel does not necessarily reduce ethnic differences in socioeconomic status or the salience of ethnicity among disadvantaged groups.     

Yearly variation in recruitment and its effect on population dynamics inYoldia notabilis (Mollusca: Bivalvia), analyzed using projection matrix model

Summary Long-term variation in recruitment was estimated by constructing projection matrices for a marine bivalve,Yoldia notabilis, at two stations in Otsuchi Bay, northeastern Japan, and the effects of its variation on population dynamics were examined using a simple matrix model. The matrix model was developed from the Leslie matrix, in which the population growth rate λ was expressed as a function of recruitment rater ₀. The equilibrium recruitment rater _s, or the recruitment rate required to maintain population at constant size (λ=1), was expressed by the reciprocal of the reproductive value of a newly recruited individual. The estimates ofr _s for the field population were lower at the shallower station than at the deeper station, reflecting higher survivorship and fecundity. Past recruitment rate estimated both by the field samplings for 3 years and by the back-calculation from the current age structure for over 10 years showed large yearly variation, ranging between 0 and 58.6×10⁻⁴. The estimates were larger thanr _s, and hence, large enough to increase population size (λ>1) only in approximately one-third of the estimated years. This suggests that the population has been maintained by occasional successful recruitment occurring once every few years.     

Well-Being in an Adult Swedish Population

Objectives: The aim of this study was to see if earlier findings about factors associated with well-being could be replicated in a large population-based sample in Sweden. To the best of our knowledge, no research on well-being has been conducted on such a large population in a country, which by most standards is regarded as one of the most fortunate in the world. With its economic wealth and highly developed social welfare and health care system, Sweden is a country where the conditions for a high level of well-being would appear to be met. Methods: 10,441 randomly selected Swedish citizens, aged between 20 and 64 years, living in Stockholm County, completed a questionnaire covering issues such as demographics, social network and psychological well-being. The data were collected during the years 1998–2000. Results: Male gender, greater age, cohabiting, good childhood conditions, support from friends, sound financial situation and absence of negative life events were positively associated with well-being and explained 20% of the variance. Conclusion: The findings replicated earlier studies. Factors associated with well-being seem to remain the same, and are still explaining only a small part of the total variance, despite different measurements, time, sample sizes or country of origin. Therefore, research on well-being needs to take a new turn, by placing less focus on external factors and more focus on the internal factors, such as a person’s personality and coping strategies.