广东家庭户规模与家庭生命周期变化特点

本文分析广东省家庭户的规模和结构变化 ,以及广东家庭生命周期的形成、扩展、稳定、收缩、空巢和解体等六个阶段的新特点。这些变化和特点将对广东的经济发展产生深远的影响。     

The Impact of Family Size on Wealth Accumulation in Rural Thailand

Abstract. We examine the effect of socio-economic covariates on infant mortality in China in the 1980s, particularly the role of previous birth interval and mother's education, using an event history approach with data from the 1988 Two per Thousand Fertility Survey. We use a Bayesian model averaging strategy that takes account of model uncertainty as well as parameter uncertainty. A standard stepwise logistic regression analysis finds no statistically significant relationship between the preceding birth interval and infant survival after controlling for socio-demographic factors, but this finding is reversed when the Bayesian model averaging approach is adopted. However, the method finds less support than a standard stepwise approach for the role of mother's education. We consider the model-fitting criterion of predictive power when applied to out-of-sample observations, and show that Bayesian model averaging outperforms the stepwise approach. We conclude that, even with large sample sizes, the interpretation of results can vary substantially according to model selection and fitting criteria.     

Asset Accumulation And Family Size

Utilizing panel data on families, estimates are made of the effects of children on asset accumulation, asset composition, consumption, and family income. Young children are found to depress savings for young families but to increase savings for marriages of duration greater than five years. The principal channel through which children act to reduce savings is the decline in female earnings associated with the child-induced withdrawal of wives from the labor force. Family consumption actually decreases with the birth of a child, but this reduction is insufficient, for young families, to offset the fall in income. For families in which the wife does not work the estimates suggest that savings may actually increase with children.     

Family Constellations and Life Satisfaction in Europe

Existing research on family and well-being has generally focused on the traditional family, and has largely ignored the increasing diversity in family forms and relations. Our aim in this paper is to help fill this gap by investigating the extent of the relationship between living arrangements and life satisfaction (LS) in Europe. We examined variations in life satisfaction by applying a multilevel approach (i.e., individuals nested in countries) to data from the 2007 European Quality of Life Survey. First, we found that levels of life satisfaction among families consisting of couples with children were significantly higher than among people in other (less typical) family arrangements. Second, our results illustrate that after the socioeconomic situation of the family was taken into account, the influence of family status on LS disappeared almost completely. Overall, our findings suggest that the lower levels of life satisfaction experienced by people living in atypical families can be largely attributed to their weaker socioeconomic position.     

Family planning programmes and action in Western Europe

Abstract Neo-Malthusian organisations for spreading birth control propaganda were created in many West European countries in the 1870s and '80s. But the birth control movement proper, with its provision of clinics and other means of supplying advice on contraception, began much later-generally after World War I and largely on a welfare basis, divorced from Malthusianism. Legal and other difficulties impeded progress and conditioned the nature of the movement. Since World War II, however, the relevance of birth control has come increasingly to be recognized and the movement has expanded markedly. In some countries - especially in France, West Germany and Italy - there are still legal obstacles, though ways have been found of avoiding them. But even in other countries the direct impact of birth control clinics is far smaller than might have been expected and married couples still obtain their information on contraception from other sources. In recent years the various national movements have shown a greater interest in the evaluation of their activities. As a result, the near future may see substantial changes in their structure and in the approach to their potential clientèle.     

Family planning programmes and action in Western Europe

Neo-Malthusian organisations for spreading birth control propaganda were created in many West European countries in the 1870s and '80s. But the birth control movement proper, with its provision of clinics and other means of supplying advice on contraception, began much later-generally after World War I and largely on a welfare basis, divorced from Malthusianism. Legal and other difficulties impeded progress and conditioned the nature of the movement. Since World War II, however, the relevance of birth control has come increasingly to be recognized and the movement has expanded markedly. In some countries — especially in France, West Germany and Italy — there are still legal obstacles, though ways have been found of avoiding them. But even in other countries the direct impact of birth control clinics is far smaller than might have been expected and married couples still obtain their information on contraception from other sources. In recent years the various national movements have shown a greater interest in the evaluation of their activities. As a result, the near future may see substantial changes in their structure and in the approach to their potential clientèle.     

On A Method for Studying Family Size Preferences

Demography - The concept of desired family size is widely accepted, and numerous studies have been undertaken to measure its level in certain population groups. The determination of desired family...     

The Effect of Childhood Family Size on Fertility in Adulthood: New Evidence From IV Estimation

Although fertility is positively correlated across generations, the causal effect of children’s experience with larger sibships on their own fertility in adulthood is poorly understood. With the sex composition of the two firstborn children as an instrumental variable, we estimate the effect of sibship size on adult fertility using high-quality data from Norwegian administrative registers. Our study sample is all firstborns or second-borns during the 1960s in Norwegian families with at least two children (approximately 110,000 men and 104,000 women). An additional sibling has a positive effect on male fertility, mainly causing them to have three children themselves, but has a negative effect on female fertility at the same margin. Investigation into mediators reveals that mothers of girls shift relatively less time from market to family work when an additional child is born. We speculate that this scarcity in parents’ time makes girls aware of the strains of life in large families, leading them to limit their own number of children in adulthood.     

Environmental Effects on Family Size Preferences and Subsequent Reproductive Behavior in Nepal

This study investigates the relationship between environmental degradation and men and womens family size preferences and subsequent reproductive behaviors in Nepal. We draw on unique environmental data at the local level, household and individual-level survey data and individuals reproductive behavior over a 3 year time period in Western Chitwan Valley, Nepal. Results from Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and logistic regression models show that poorer environmental quality and greater reliance on publicly owned natural resources are associated with higher family size preferences and higher rates of pregnancy. The analyses provide support for the vicious circle argument that environmental degradation can lead to rising population growth via positive effects on fertility. As environmental conditions decline and when households rely on public lands for natural resources, men and women desire larger family sizes and women are more likely to get pregnant in the near future.     

Preference for Boys,Family Size,and Educational Attainment in India

Using data from nationally representative household surveys, we test whether Indian parents make trade-offs between the number of children and investments in education. To address the endogeneity due to the joint determination of quantity and quality of children, we instrument family size with the gender of the first child, which is plausibly random. Given a strong son preference in India, parents tend to have more children if the firstborn is a girl. Our instrumental variable results show that children from larger families have lower educational attainment and are less likely to be enrolled in school, with larger effects for rural, poorer, and low-caste families as well as for families with illiterate mothers.     

Educational Differences in Desired Family Size and Attitudes Toward Childbearing in Latina Women

Attitudes toward childbearing and desired family size influence women's reproductive choices. This may be especially true in the Latina culture, where motherhood and large families are valued highly. To determine whether these attitudes differ by educational status, Latina women in an OB/GYN clinic (N=351) completed a survey assessing attitudes toward childbearing and desired family size. Attitudes of women with and without a high school education were compared. Respondents without a high school education desired a mean of 3.1 children, while those with a high school education desired a mean of 2.7. Women without a high school education endorsed more attitudes favoring large families. Among women without a high school education, those who wished to have a son to carry on the family name tended to desire larger families. Results suggest that the desire for large families among Latina women with low education may result from traditional cultural attitudes.     

家庭规模缩小对家庭经济保障能力的影响:苏南实例

本文通过实验设计方法 ,并利用苏南农村居民的数据资料 ,分析实证了在有收入积累的前提下 ,家庭规模缩小不仅不会弱化家庭保障能力 ,而且会强化家庭保障能力。不同规模家庭保障能力差别 ,随时间推移和在家庭生命周期的不同阶段具有波动性。家庭保障能力会因家庭规模的大小、消费和积累模式的差异和在家庭生命周期中的不同阶段而不同 ,并可能发生相互转换。     

Stages of the Demographic Transition from a Child's Perspective: Family Size,Cohort Size,and Children's Resources

This article provides a new characterization of stages of the demographic transition from the perspective of children competing for resources within families and cohorts. In Stage 1 falling mortality increases the size of both families and birth cohorts. In Stage 2 falling fertility overtakes falling mortality to reduce family size, but population momentum causes continued growth in cohort size. In Stage 3 falling fertility overtakes population momentum to produce declining cohort size. We apply our framework to census microdata for eight countries and to United Nations population projections for a larger set of countries. The results suggest that most countries spend two to three decades in Stage 2, with declining family size offset by increasing cohort size. From the perspective of children aged 9–11, many countries enter Stage 3 between 2000 and 2010. Other countries, especially in Africa, will continue to experience increasing cohort size for several more decades.     

明清文书档案反映的农民家庭规模

文章以明清部分文书档案为中心,对明清农民家庭规模进行考察。研究发现,遗存的明代户帖、黄册文书等展现了当时一些农民家庭人口构成的具体情况,其规模较小,户平均为5口左右。清代保甲烟户册显示的家庭人口规模大致与此相同。黄册底籍所载表明,小家庭占当时农村居住人户的绝大多数。     

The Family

Social Indicators Research -     

Intended and Ideal Family Size in the United States, 1970–2002

Cross‐nationally, observed fertility is well below mean levels of reported ideal family size and also usually well below survey respondents' fertility desires and intentions. The United States is an exception. In this article we: (1) discuss the importance of fertility ideals and intentions for understanding observed fertility levels, (2) propose a model that can account for variable attitude‐behavior consistency, and (3) use this model as a framework to examine trends in American women's fertility ideals, intentions, and actual fertility. Our study uses data from the General Social Surveys and the Current Population Surveys. We ask whether preferences and intentions for moderate family sizes have eroded with time. The answer is remarkably clear: the dominant American ideals and intentions are for two or three children, and these preferences have persisted across the last three decades. The unusual aggregate correspondence between fertility intentions and behavior in the United States is explained by an apparent offsetting of factors that increase/decrease fertility relative to intentions.     

Family Size,Sex Composition and Children's Education: Ethnic Differentials Over Development in Peninsular Malaysia

In this paper the composition of Indian emigration to Fiji is analysed from documentary data. Most emigrants went as indentured labourers from 1879 to 1916. The system of recruitment, the considerable resistances to emigration and pressure stimulating it, places of origin, age, sex, marital status, economic position, religion and caste and expectations of emigrants are considered ; 75% of the emigrants embarked at Calcutta. In the main they were unaccompanied, young men and women, came from the north-eastern United Provinces, and were a fair cross section of village castes. The emigrants were driven primarily by economic but also by social pressure and intended to return to India. Emigration from Madras differed in some respects. Other Indian emigration to Fiji, of Punjabis and Gujratis particularly, is also discussed.