国家大学英语四级考试成绩评价指标探讨

传统的运用四级通过率来评价高等院校学生英语学习状况的作法存在明显不足。为了弥补这种不足,本文提出还应增加进步指数这个指标。将这两个指标结合运用能对评价对象的英语学习产生良好的推动作用。文中运用某学校的数据作了实证分析。     

主成份分析法的局限性

评价研究经济效益已经由指标体系法发展到多指标综合评价,这确实是方法论上的一大进步.因为指标体系的多维评价结果容易模糊人们的视野,无法解决被评价对象的时间(同一对象的纵向)与空间(不同对象的横向)对比问题,而多指标综合评价法恰可以弥补这些不     

浙江省经济社会生态协调发展评价

一、分析评价的思路协调发展是一个多指标的综合评价问题,因此需要运用多指标综合评价方法。通过专家咨询、主成分分析等方法,本文确定了以下综合评价指标体系(表1)。为了反映一个国家或地区发展的协调状态,本文采用经济发展指数(E)、社会进步指数(S)、生态支持指数(R)以及三系     

基于优势度识别的激励评价方法研究

针对动态综合评价中的激励问题,文章提出一种基于优势度识别的激励评价方法。其特点在于通过识别被评价对象的自身优势度和竞争优势度确定被评价对象各评价指标的激励量以及评价结果的激励量。首先通过计算被评价对象各评价指标的相对优势水平和贡献度确定各评价指标的发展水平;其次通过规划求解确定被评价对象各评价指标的自身优势度;然后利用自身优势度计算被评价对象的评价结果,通过被评价对象评价结果间的比较确定各被评价对象的竞争优势度;最后根据优势度结果确定被评价对象的激励量。     

综合指数评价法在保险中的运用

保险统计是统计学原理在保险经济统计实践中的运用和总结。它主要运用经济统计的一般原理和方法，研究保险经济统计工作实践活动的规律。保险统计的目的不是描述个体现象的数量，而是描述和揭示由大量单个现象所构成的总体的数量规律性。随着世界经济的一体化，各国经济界限在不断拆除；另一方面大到一个国家小到每一企业也都在关注本国和本企业在世界中的地位：是 在世界排名中稳中有升或是有被排挤出局的危险？世界各企业、各国、各经贸组织甚至各洲每年都发布统计数据以反映各自信誉、评级与排名。通过这些数据可以直观易懂地向人们展示这些经济单位的过去、现状与将来。另一方面，国家与企业也需对价格变动作出反应并且还应对经济活动中的总量变化全面地进行分析。在众多活动中以综合指数评价法最易被人们接受。它要领明确，方法简便易行；能进行纵向与横向比较，说明评价对象的变化趋势和升降幅度以及说明本单位在同行业中的状况；能够准确地反映各项评价指标的具体差异。本文拟就该方法谈一谈其在保险中的运用。     

加法可分性贫困指数的比较研究

 本文以Watts指数、FGT指数、CHU指数和笔者提出的R指数为对象,考察了这四个加法可分性贫困指数的形式和特性,并采用“中国综合社会调查”(CGSS)的数据,比较了四个指数的测量表现。结果显示,相对于其他三个同类指数,R指数的公式法和模型法的计算结果近似度高,且受数据分组形式的影响也小,是一种可取的具有分组稳健性优势的贫困量度。     

主成分分析能客观赋权吗？

一、问题的提出统计评价分析即是从数量上展示和说明研究对象的规模大小、水平高低、发展速度快慢以及各种关系协调与否的一类统计分析方法。最简单的统计评价是根据某一指标或指标体系中各个指标逐一对研究对象进行评价,但问题是在很多时候这种评价可能很难得出被评价具体对象     

交通管理不能“一罚了之”

交警站在驾驶员看不到的地方，一辆一辆违章车辆被请到路边接受处罚。这样的情形每天都会发生，驾驶员虽然颇有微词，但也习以为常了……2008年1月8日在成都召开的第三届公共服务评价国际研讨会上发布的《2007年零点中国公共服务公众评价指数报告》调查结果显示：城镇居民中，9．2％的人表示自己曾经有过因为交警暗中执法而被处以罚款的经历；40．5％的受访者对暗中执法明确表示反对，执法经济和以罚代管是城镇居民对暗中执法不满的主要原因。     

黄河流域城市群能源-经济-环境-科技耦合协调水平评价

推动黄河流域多系统协调发展是落实国家发展战略的重要举措。为此，文章使用耦合协调度模型测算了2011—2020年黄河流域七大城市群能源-经济-环境-科技四元系统综合发展水平及耦合协调度，并对其时空演化特征与外部驱动因素进行分析。结果表明：（1）黄河流域四元系统综合评价指数总体呈稳定上升态势，且各城市群均属于科技滞后型；（2）四元系统耦合协调度得到显著提升，区域特征主要表现为耦合协调度从流域东部向西部逐渐递减；（3）各地级市四元系统耦合协调发展存在显著正向空间相关性，少数地区发生跃迁现象，跃迁路径存在差异，且数字基础设施已经成为推动区域能源-经济-环境-科技耦合协调发展的重要外部驱动力。     

技术进步对山东省经济增长的贡献度分析

目前．技术进步在人类社会中对经济发展的作用已经越来越大．“科学技术是第一生产力”的观点已经被经济学界乃至整个社会认同。在发达国家。技术进步在经济增长中所占的比例已从20世纪初的20％左右上升到现在的50—80％。在这种情况下。定量评价技术进步的贡献度越来越为国内外经济学界以及决策部门所重视。山东省作为经济大省．也是中国进步最快的地区之一．定量研究技术进步对山东省经济增长的贡献率、     

语境变量ESK对中国学生英语冠词习得影响的统计研究

中国学生母语中没有冠词系统,英语冠词的选择是受到所指的客观识别性特征——语境变量ESK,还是冠词选择参数特指性的影响很值得研究。通过有效的实验设计和统计分析证实了中国学生的冠词选择不仅受到语义参数特指性的干扰,而且也受句法的驱动,语境变量ESK对中国学生英语冠词选择有显著影响。     

The test for logical order in English language testing

In this paper we assess a marking scheme for the test for logical order in English language testing. This is achieved by considering the potential misclassification of students due to guessing. The distribution of scores under the hypothesis of random selection is derived and the asymptotic distribution is shown to be Poisson with a mean of unity. Recommendations are given for selecting the number of sentences in the test for logical order.     

Graduate Statistics Service Courses

This article describes our experience in, and recommendations for, teaching introductory statistics service courses to graduate students. Drawing on the student's research orientation, the instructor can present statistics as a valuable component of the scientific method, using examples from the student's particular discipline(s). Statistically qualified course instructors may be affiliated with statistics or other departments, and the course may be offered within any department. Course goals can range from training students to function independently as statistical analysts in future research to training students to consult a qualified statistician about design and analysis issues.     

A practical method for analysing heavy tailed data

An important practical issue of applying heavy tailed distributions is how to choose the sample fraction or threshold, since only a fraction of upper order statistics can be employed in the inference. Recently, Guillou & Hall ( 2001 ; Journal of Royal Statistical Society B, 63, 293–305) proposed a simple way to choose the threshold in estimating a tail index. In this article, the author first gives an intuitive explanation of the approach in Guillou & Hall ( 2001 ; it Journal of Royal Statistical Society B, 63, 293–305) and then proposes an alternative method, which can be extended to other settings like extreme value index estimation and tail dependence function estimation. Further the author proposes to combine this method for selecting a threshold with a bias reduction estimator to improve the performance of the tail index estimation, interval estimation of a tail index, and high quantile estimation. Simulation studies on both point estimation and interval estimation for a tail index show that both selection procedures are comparable and bias reduction estimation with the threshold selected by either method is preferred. The Canadian Journal of Statistics © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

Strategies for Success: Early-Stage Collaborating Biostatistics Faculty in an Academic Health Center

Collaborative biostatistics faculty (CBF) are increasingly valued by academic health centers (AHCs) for their role in increasing success rates of grants and publications, and educating medical students and clinical researchers. Some AHCs have a biostatistics department that consists of only biostatisticians focused on methodological research, collaborative research, and education. Others may have a biostatistics unit within an interdisciplinary department, or statisticians recruited into clinical departments. Within each model, there is also variability in environment, influenced by the chair's background, research focus of colleagues, type of students taught, funding sources, and whether the department is in a medical school or school of public health. CBF appointments may be tenure track or nontenure, and expectations for promotion may vary greatly depending on the type of department, track, and the AHC. In this article, the authors identify strategies for developing early-stage CBFs in four domains: (1) Influence of department/environment, (2) Skills to develop, (3) Ways to increase productivity, and (4) Ways to document accomplishments. Graduating students and postdoctoral fellows should consider the first domain when choosing a faculty position. Early-stage CBFs will benefit by understanding the requirements of their environment early in their appointment and by modifying the provided progression grid with their chair and mentoring team as needed. Following this personalized grid will increase the chances of a satisfying career with appropriate recognition for academic accomplishments.     

The Asymptotic Distribution of the S–Gini Index

Several generalizations of the classical Gini index, placing smaller or greater weights on various portions of income distribution, have been proposed by a number of authors. For purposes of statistical inference, the large sample distribution theory of the estimators of those measures of economic inequality is required. The present paper was stimulated by the use of bootstrap by Xu (2000) to estimate the variance of the estimator of the S –Gini index. It shows that the theory of L –statistics (Chernoff, Gastwirth & Johns, 1967; Shorack & Wellner, 1986) makes possible the construction of a consistent estimator for the S –Gini index and proof of its asymptotic normality. The paper also presents an explicit formula for the asymptotic variance. The formula should be helpful in planning the size of samples from which the S –Gini index can be estimated with a prescribed margin of error.     

Omnitab-a simple language for statistical computations

The OMNITAB system of computer programming provides a simple, yet extremely versatile means of communicating with the computer using simple English words and phrases, It is written in FORTRAN and is available for implementation on UNIVAC 1108, IBM 360, Burroughs 5500 and CDC 6600 equipment. It is based on a worksheet, stored in the computer, which is a two dimensional array easy to visualize even by beginners. The system has particular use for students of statistics, of all ages, in that it allows them to interact with the data without requiring that they master any diffiicult and esoteric (for statisticians) computer skills. The programming system is described together with several applications to statistical problems. Full program documentation is available from the authors.     

适应经济发展的高校学科结构优化模型

文章利用1994~2003年的分学科高校在校生资料,进行一阶差分,用净增人数建立灰色动态模型,对2008年和2010年的在校生进行中期预测。并把分学科在校生与人均GDP的关联度作为灰色线性规划的贡献率灰数,优化出各学科在校生的结构。结果显示,需要适度减缓哲学、历史学、法学、经济学的发展速度,增加教育学、工学、医学的培养人数。     

Providing Consulting Experiences Through Role Playing in a Graduate Statistics Course

An effective method for improving the communication skills of graduate students in statistics and biostatistics is to provide consultations with non‐statistical researchers. Unfortunately, those experiences can be difficult to arrange or occur too infrequently to be reliable. The current study sought to help students develop both written and oral communication skills within an existing graduate biostatistics course by having students partake in role‐playing consultations. Though the class size was small, the students felt these activities helped improve their oral and written communication skills, and made them more aware of a biostatistician's role in consulting. There was also modest improvement in the students perceived function as a consulting biostatistician. Simulated consultations can be an effective educational tool for promoting the development of soft skills necessary for developing successful statisticians, can be implemented in existing courses, and do not require reliance upon external collaborators. Embedding these types of exercises within an existing curriculum can also be a cost‐effective alternative for programs that do not have formal consulting training.     

Some maximum-indifference estimators for the slope of a univariate linear model

As known, the least-squares estimator of the slope of a univariate linear model sets to zero the covariance between the regression residuals and the values of the explanatory variable. To prevent the estimation process from being influenced by outliers, which can be theoretically modelled by a heavy-tailed distribution for the error term, one can substitute covariance with some robust measures of association, for example Kendall's tau in the popular Theil–Sen estimator. In a scarcely known Italian paper, Cifarelli [(1978), ‘La Stima del Coefficiente di Regressione Mediante l'Indice di Cograduazione di Gini’, Rivista di matematica per le scienze economiche e sociali, 1, 7–38. A translation into English is available at http://arxiv.org/abs/1411.4809 and will appear in Decisions in Economics and Finance] shows that a gain of efficiency can be obtained by using Gini's cograduation index instead of Kendall's tau. This paper introduces a new estimator, derived from another association measure recently proposed. Such a measure is strongly related to Gini's cograduation index, as they are both built to vanish in the general framework of indifference. The newly proposed estimator is shown to be unbiased and asymptotically normally distributed. Moreover, all considered estimators are compared via their asymptotic relative efficiency and a small simulation study. Finally, some indications about the performance of the considered estimators in the presence of contaminated normal data are provided.