The demography of disadvantage

This paper discusses the contribution that demographers can make to the study of disadvantage. Demographers from Malthus onwards have been interested in analysing disadvantage through the lens of demographic variables, notably fertility, mortality and population growth, and their effect on poverty and welfare, both at an aggregate level and in terms of intra-household differences in well-being. The methodology of demography, including the concern with getting denominators right, cohort analysis and standardization procedures, can contribute to the analysis of disadvantage in many different ways. As examples, this paper highlights two issues: that of inequality of access to quality education, and the social and economic disadvantage faced by Indigenous Australians. The goal of understanding the causes of disadvantage with a view to reducing it may be best served through multidisciplinary efforts, in which demographers should play a role.     

Geography, demography, and early development

This paper explores the role of geography in early development. It presents a model where the odds of survival are higher in geographically favorable regions. In such regions, higher life expectancy prompts parents to devote more of their resources to old-age consumption and enables them to invest relatively more in the quantity and quality of their offspring. Investment in education, together with population growth, helps geographically-favorable economies to attain high levels of a more educated population that is necessary for sustained economic growth. The empirical evidence is generally supportive of the view that geographic attributes influenced regional population levels in Europe and its colonial offshoots around 1500 A.D. and that they affected population levels and educational attainment in low-income countries of the 1990s. For useful comments and suggestions I thank the editor, two anonymous referees, Daron Acemoglu, Ann Carlos, Phil Graves, Naci Mocan, Oded Stark, seminar participants at the University of Colorado at Boulder, the University of Colorado at Denver, and the 2002 Royal Economic Society Annual Conference. I owe a special debt of gratitude to my advisor Herschel Grossman who passed away in October 2004 after leaving his mark on many of us in the profession. The standard disclaimer applies. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno.     

The demography of the Kuwaiti population of Kuwait

Kuwait has experienced a dramatic rise in national income since 1945, and its material standard of living is as high as that of any country in the world. The national population (Kuwaitis) is a stable and almost closed population comprising 45 percent of the total population of the state. The Kuwaitis, readily separable from the immigrant population, both de facto and de jure, have a very low level of mortality but retain their traditionally high level of fertility. It is suggested that this largely unaltered pattern of fertility is a function of the peculiar form of economic development to which Kuwait has been subjected and of the strongly pro-natalist pressures associated with Arabic Islam.     

The demography of American Indian families

This paper uses data from the decennial censuses to examine family structure and changes in family structure over time among American Indians. The information about the national Indian population indicates that the trends in family structure among American Indians are parallel in many respects to those in the general US population. That is, the percentage of young American Indian women who have never married has increased over time, the percentage of American Indian women who are divorced has increased over time, and the percentage of American Indian children who reside with a single parent has increased as well. The percentage of American Indian women who have never married and who are divorced and the percentage of American Indian children who live with a single parent are higher than those among the general population. The incidence of children living with single parents is especially high on some reservations which also have high levels of poverty and unemployment. Family patterns, however, vary considerably across reservations in ways that are not easily explained by differences in other demographic characteristics. These variations may be due to cultural and historical differences that are not captured in data collected in the censuses.     

The demography of Tristan da Cunha

The eruption of the volcano on Tristan da Cunha in 1961 and the subsequent arrival of the island population in the United Kingdom provided a unique opportunity for studying the health of this formerly isolated community. During their stay, while the facilities and services of modern medicine were made available to them, investigations of many facets of their general biology were made under the auspices of the Medical Research Council, co-ordinated by Dr. H. E. Lewis. Analysis of their demographic history was essential to understand many features of their disease pattern, and the results of this analysis are presented here. They are of interest in that they not only show some consistent trends in the common variables of demography, but also demonstrate biological principles, some perhaps for the first time in man, which may be fundamental in the process of colonization as a biological phenomenon, e.g. the initial difficulty of establishment of a population in a new area, the curious demographic structure that may emerge in its earliest years, the bottleneck effect of population-size reduction, the founder principle.     

The demography of Tristan da Cunha

Abstract The eruption of the volcano on Tristan da Cunha in 1961 and the subsequent arrival of the island population in the United Kingdom provided a unique opportunity for studying the health of this formerly isolated community. During their stay, while the facilities and services of modern medicine were made available to them, investigations of many facets of their general biology were made under the auspices of the Medical Research Council, co-ordinated by Dr. H. E. Lewis. Analysis of their demographic history was essential to understand many features of their disease pattern, and the results of this analysis are presented here. They are of interest in that they not only show some consistent trends in the common variables of demography, but also demonstrate biological principles, some perhaps for the first time in man, which may be fundamental in the process of colonization as a biological phenomenon, e.g. the initial difficulty of establishment of a population in a new area, the curious demographic structure that may emerge in its earliest years, the bottleneck effect of population-size reduction, the founder principle.     

The contours of demography: Estimates and projections

This paper considers the scope of demography and the various research approaches that legitimately could claim the label. As a small field lacking security in academic structures, demography has been unusually sensitive to demand factors, including those associated with perceived population problems. International health is cited as an area of increased demographic presence; reasons for this development are explored. The technology for performing research in demography is improving more rapidly than in many other areas of the social sciences, and thus is helping to improve the relative standing of the field. Taking a demand-oriented approach, the paper identifies several promising research areas in which demographers will be called on to address issues of national and international concern.     

[The system of the demography of the aged].]

This is an introduction to the demographic study of the elderly population. Topics covered include reasons for research on the aged and the main subject areas involved, which are population characteristics, demographic aging, and the relationship between demographic aging and socioeconomic development. Some results of recent research are summarized.     

The impact of Medicare on demography

The so-called Medicare program enacted by the 1965 Amendments to the Social Security Act will have a significant impact on demographic studies, in view of the vast amount of previously unobtainable data that will be made available. Not only will there be extensive information in regard to hospitalization and other medical-care costs for persons aged 65 and over (with adequate subdivisions by age and sex) but also reliable data in regard to the true size of the population aged 65 and over will be produced.The reason for this latter result is that virtually all pereons aged 65 and over in the country will become eligible for hospital insurance, even though they may not have been previously covered, or have been survivors of persons covered, under the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance System. As a result, not only will there be an accurate count (unlike the census, where the enumeration necessarily is not complete), but also there will be a verification of age, since this is necessary under the claims process.     

The contemporary demography of indigenous Australians

Increased public policy focus on indigenous Australians over the past 30 years has resulted in a substantial expansion of demographic analysis over the same period. This paper reviews these efforts and summarizes the main topics, findings and debates. The accumulated evidence points to both demographic change and continuity. Change: in that mortality has declined; fertility levels have been much reduced; urbanization has burgeoned and population growth has entered a phase of rapid increase. Continuity: because mortality is still much higher than the Australian average; fertility remains at a level well above that reported for all women; most individuals still live away from major cities; and the estimation of overall numbers still hinges on a social construction of identity.     

Book Review Guns,Germs and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies. Jared Diamond. New York: W.W. Norton, 1997, 480 pp.

Population and Environment -     

The state of applied demography in Australia

What is the state of applied demography in Australia from a practitioner’s perspective? The paper discusses this question by addressing the following aspects: what issues are and are not receiving media coverage; the use and misuse of demographic data; the level of service received by the demography community from the main suppliers of data; the emerging role of some key players on the scene and some suggestions on the teaching of demography in Australia.     

The verification of data in historical demography

Abstract In all scientific studies care must be taken to work on data which are correct and hence to make sure of the quality of the observations. In the field of historical demography there is need for extra care. The data were collected a long time ago in circumstances which were sometimes good, sometimes bad, but often little known. Statisticians are, moreover, on a priori grounds, rather inclined to be more suspicious of observations made in the past than of those which are made currently. Results relating to past populations must therefore be more rigorously established than any others if they are to be accepted. The verification of the data thus forms an integral part of the work of the historical demographer.     

The demography of the unrelated individual: 1900–1950

This article is an analysis of the frequency and characteristics of unrelated individuals between 1900 and 1950. The much-heralded rise of the primary individual during the 20th century has been offset by a decline in the frequency of secondary individuals. The overall percentage of persons residing without family did not exceed turn-of-the-century levels until the 1970s. Using data from national micro data samples of the census for 1900, 1940, and 1950, the study applies decomposition techniques and life-course analysis to investigate these patterns. The results show that the decline of the secondary individual from 1900 to 1950 was largely a function of changing demographic composition, but the increase of primary individuals is linked to changing residential preferences.