论著提要

1997年之前的亚洲宏观经济与高利率〔日〕桥本叶子　　人们普遍认为 ,亚洲金融危机具有以下三个主要特征 :第一 ,在深受金融危机之苦的东亚国家 ,金融当局采取了有效的汇率政策 ,以限定本国货币与美元的兑比范围。这一政策加速了资本的短期流入 ,从而避免了外汇风险。与此同时 ,这一限制措施也对本国货币和资本账户产生了某些影响。第二 ,金融危机同时引发了财政危机。国际货币基金组织早已指出 ,一些亚洲国家的金融部门和资本市场存在着某种脆弱性。巨额资本流入那些金融制度并不完善的国家 ,其结果便导致金融危机的爆发。从这一观点出发 ,…     

当前世界经济形势对中国的影响

一、全球金融危机对中国的影响自2008年开始的由美国次贷危机引起的全球金融危机,是自上世纪30年代以来世界上最严重的一次危机。这次危机的发展是从次贷危机发展到债务危机,再发展到流动性危机,然后发展到信用危机。从范围上讲是从美国向世界各国扩散,从虚拟经济领域向实体经济领域蔓延,造成了一次严重的全球性的经济危机。     

日美金融危机治理对策的比较

2008年秋季,以美国次贷危机深化为发端,一场罕见的金融危机席卷全球。危机不仅引发金融市场的动荡,而且对实体经济也造成沉重打击。美国政府采取了一系列危机治理对策,这些救市政策同日本当年的政策颇为相似,但又有所不同。对照上世纪90年代日本政府在金融危机治理方面的经验教训,或许对预见美国政府危机治理政策的效果具有一定的借鉴意义。     

俄罗斯金融危机的演变与发展特点

受美国次贷危机演变为世界性金融危机的影响,俄罗斯经济遭受冲击,由金融市场动荡演变为一场金融危机,并导致经济衰退。俄罗斯金融危机的演变与国际原油价格变化、国际资本流动、国内经济金融结构的失衡等因素高度相关。由于面临第二次世界大战以来最恶劣的国际经济环境,俄罗斯此次金融危机可能要比1998年的危机对经济的影响更深。但另一方面,如今俄罗斯的经济实力显著增强,而且政府采取的多轮一揽子反危机措施也初见成效。     

论中俄经济合作的跨文化风险

随着金融危机在世界范围的蔓延,中国境外资本投资中蕴含的灾难性风险越来越多地凸显出来.与此同时,受这场危机的冲击,在俄罗斯境内出现了对矿产资本投资的巨大需求,这也是中俄经济合作的一个重大机遇.但是,大量事实证明,机遇背后存在着跨文化风险,它们足以威胁两国经济合作的顺利进行,使表面上充满前景的中俄经济合作暗藏危机.为此,中俄两国的投资人必须注意与经济合作、投资活动及跨文化企业经营密切相关的深层文化因素,化解文化冲突,排除跨文化风险.     

国际货币基金组织的未来

虽然在过去1 0年或2 0年里发展中国家进行了制度改革和宏观经济改革,但面向发展中国家的资本流动仍然出现大幅度波动的情形。1 996年流向新兴市场的净私人资本高达2 30 0亿美元,到1 997年这些资本流入减少一半,1 998年再减少一半。在1 999年微小的复苏之后,2 0 0 0年又开始下降,到2 0 0 1年资本流入仅略高于1 996年水平的1 1 0。资本流动的大幅度摇摆所带来的经济成本、政治成本和社会成本是巨大的。最生动的实例莫过于经历了严重危机的国家,如泰国、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、韩国、俄罗斯、巴西、土耳其和阿根廷。虽然在许多情况下,资本流…     

从《资本论》的发展伦理视阈看金融危机

<资本论>的金融危机论是马克思最有预见性的理论之一.<资本论>以人的全面发展为经济发展的根本目的,强调财富增长应服从人的全面发展的人道目的,指出金融危机是资本家追求价值增值最大化的必然后果.<资本论>指出资本主体对人本主体的不公正取代,使应该成为主体的劳动者反而成为被奴役的工具,使资本家在实体经济发展无利可图,或只有微利可图时,能自由地将资本投向虚拟经济.<资本论>强调自由应是建立在能力发展基础上的实质自由,因而虚拟经济不能脱离实体经济的发展而盲目发展.     

南宁市应对金融危机的策略选择

金融危机正在对全球实体经济产生严重损害,世界经济增长动力减弱、复苏乏力。在经济全球化的背景下,中国经济虽然在短期内所受影响较小,但在未来中长期内其发展形势依然严峻。作为中国宏观经济的一部分,在金融危机的挑战下,积极深化改革,尽快实现经济增长方式的转变将是南宁市应对危机、实现经济稳定快速发展的必然选择。     

拉美为什么经常爆发金融危机

剖析墨西哥金融危机、巴西货币危机和阿根廷债务危机的根源 ,评述导致危机的内外因素 ,指出三次危机的共同点在于汇率政策失当和政治不稳定。总结出拉美金融危机的十点启示。     

从次贷危机到全球金融危机：警示与反思

由美国次贷危机所引发的金融危机正以猛烈之势席卷全球。根据金融危机的相关理论,从本质上说,美国金融危机是由金融系统的内在不稳定性以及信用和监管缺失所导致的一场信用危机、系统性金融危机,并表现出其“传染”的整体性和快速性以及政府处理危机的主导性和一致性特征。危机使我们警醒,也让我们反思。应充分认清这场危机的本质和危害,并采取有效防范措施保持国内金融市场和房地产市场的稳定。     

Social capital and the impact of the recent economic crisis: Comparing the effects of economic and fiscal policy developments

In this contribution, we offer an analysis that evaluates the impact of the recent financial and economic crisis on social capital. An economic crisis offers a unique chance to study people's associational lives, volunteering, network-making, and trust-building under duress. Theoretical perspectives on the relationship between social capital and economic development emphasize a reciprocal relationship between the two. Therefore, we hypothesize that if economic performance is compromised, this might lead to an erosion of social capital. More importantly, however, we also argue that states can actively intervene by means of fiscal policy measures. We will illustrate our approach by comparing 29 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries before and after the crisis. Using qualitative comparative analysis, we demonstrate that imperatives related to fiscal policy stimuli provide leverage on social capital development.     

Structural Adjustment in Lesotho: An Evaluation

This paper evaluates the 1988–90 structural adjustment program in Lesotho using a computable general equilibrium model. It finds that the program failed to rectify a balance of payments problem, and that without a massive inflow of capital for a water project the country would be facing a major balance of payments crisis. Lesotho’s experience suggests that structural adjustment need not work against the poor, and that the balance of payments objective may be achieved by reducing recurrent government expenditures, other than wages.     

Financial efficiency and accounting quality: The impact of institutional micro-factors on FDI

In this paper, we explore whether factors such as financial markets and accounting qualities contribute to foreign direct investment (FDI). We use a unique data source: the survey data from World Economic Forum, to measure the efficiency of the financial markets and the quality of accounting standards. With this unique data, we demonstrate that financial markets and accounting quality are important factors of FDI inflow into a country. In particular, FDI is positively correlated with the strength of financial audits and reporting standards and venture capital availability for all countries. We also show that accounting quality measures are more important for developing and emerging countries than for developed countries. On the other hand, financial market measures, especially the access to venture capital, have a bigger impact in attracting FDI flow into developed countries. These results support the hypothesis that local financial markets and accounting quality affect FDI. The results have strong policy implications for governmental regulatory agencies.     

应对当下金融危机的财政政策效应及选择

财政政策是应对当下金融危机重要的政策手段,如何针对财政政策发挥功能的特性来选择有效的财政政策加以实施,是目前急需研究的议题。为此,以当下金融危机的特点及对中国经济影响的特征来确定财政政策的功能和取向,进而对具体实施的财政政策加以选择,是研究财政政策应对金融危机必须涉及的几项关键性内容。     

Macroprudential policy and the probability of a banking crisis

The ultimate purpose of macroprudential policy is to avoid financial instability, such as banking crises, which have a long-lasting and devastating effect on the economy. Although a growing number of studies have examined the effects of macroprudential policy on credit growth, few empirical studies have analyzed its effect on the probability of a banking crisis. Does macroprudential policy actually affect the probability of a banking crisis? Do other macroeconomic policies matter for the effectiveness of macroprudential policy? To answer these questions, this paper empirically investigates the effect of macroprudential policy on the probability of a banking crisis and its relationship with other macroeconomic policies. Specifically, using data on 65 countries from 2000 to 2016, we employ a probit model to analyze the effect of changes in the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio on crisis probability. Our results show that macroprudential policy is effective in changing the probability of a banking crisis via a credit channel and that its effectiveness depends on other macroeconomic policies. Changes in the LTV ratio are found to be effective in influencing the probability of a banking crisis in countries that have inflation targeting frameworks, floating exchange rate regimes, and/or no capital controls. Our results underscore the importance of policy coordination among different government bodies to design an appropriate macroprudential policy, especially in the current context of the Covid-19 crisis.     

论经济全球化背景下长三角地区产业发展的机遇与优势

金融危机对我国经济的持续和健康发展产生了很大影响,区域经济首当其冲,受到的冲击比较大、比较多,直面的问题也更为复杂,长三角地区产业发展的矛盾更加凸显。分析长三角地区产业发展面临国际资本和技术的转移、全球城市体系的网络化、都市密集区的集聚效应、创新型国家战略与长三角地区的科技优势等机遇,又具有国际化水平较高、产业集群发展潜力较大、信息化程度较高、政府管理能力较强、独特的人文环境等优势,这些是长三角地区应对国际金融危机冲击的有效武器。     

NAFTA and Mexico's current economic crisis: Short-run and long-run perspectives

Policy-makers in both Mexico and the U.S. reacted to the economic crisis which began in Mexico in December, 1994 as if it were a problem of short-run financial liquidity. The argument presented in this article is that Mexico's current crisis has its origins in long-standing, fundamental problems of the Mexican economy. These long-run problems include: massive external debt, a severely skewed income distribution, inadequate job creation, low productivity per worker and lack of investment in infrastructure. The short-run policy response will not address the long-run problems.     

后金融危机时期美国的货币政策对中非经济合作的启示

量化宽松的货币政策是后金融危机时期美国货币政策的主基调,自2009年3月份以来,美国先后推出了两轮量化宽松的货币政策,即QE1与QE2。美国量化宽松的货币政策所造成的国际大宗商品价格上涨、美元贬值、贸易摩擦以及热钱流入等问题,对全球经济尤其是中国与非洲各国经济带来了非常大的冲击,这对于中非各国促进双边贸易、开展本币互换试点、加快中非经贸合作区建设、加强金融监管合作以及推进货币整合的基础性研究等方面有着重要的启示。     

金融危机:不确定规则下的货币权力失控

金融危机不只是货币交易混乱的结果,更是货币规则紊乱的产物。因为现代货币的信用基础完全依赖于确定的货币规则。货币规则是发行者与持币者达成的社会契约,是发行者对持币人权利的确定承诺,是将持币者的财产权利置于宪政机制保护之下的一项制度安排。所以,无论是因配合财政扩张政策而滥发货币,还是因金融利益集团的操控而滥发货币,金融危机在本质上都是货币权力滥用或错用的结果,都是侵害持币人财产权的信用危机与法治危机。基于此,应对和防范金融危机就不能只限于加强对金融投机行为的监管,还需要通过确定的货币规则加强对货币权力的约束,从而使得现代金融所依赖的信用体系能够具备确定与可靠的制度基础。     

Inadequate Policy or Operational Failure? The Potential Crisis of the Korean National Pension Programme

The Korean National Pension Programme is one of the main pillars of the Korean welfare state. From its introduction in 1988, the Programme had come to include 26.8 per cent of the economically active population and had accumulated a pension fund equal to 24 per cent of government expenditure by 1994. Behind such a promising facade, the Korean National Pension Programme is likely to face financial crisis without a major reform. This paper seeks to answer the question as to whether the crisis will arise due to inadequate policy design or to operational failure. The latter cause may require privatizing the Pension Fund in order to operate more efficiently, while the former one would demand rectifying the defects of policy design. This study argues that the crisis is strongly related to inadequate policy design, which promises generous pensions and at the same time requires only a small amount in contributions; although there have also been operational inefficiencies in running the programme. It also argues that inadequacy in policy design stemmed from developmentalism embedded in the Korean welfare state, which regards the National Pension Programme mainly as a measure for mobilizing cheap capital. In conclusion, this paper argues that the Korean welfare state, created in the era of economic development, is transient in nature and that it needs a major reform not only to contain the cost but also to meet the growing demand for social welfare.