Determinants of union election outcomes in the non-hospital health care industry

Our research examines union election activity in the non-hospital health care industry over a 12-year period and shows that unions in this industry consistently win a greater percentage of their elections than their counterparts in either the hospital segment of the industry or other industries. Furthermore, the results indicate that several factors, primarily organizational characteristics, significantly affect the union victory rate.     

Union decertification election outcomes: Bargaining unit characteristics and union resources

Previous analysis using aggregate data has concluded that union decertification activity is “exclusively a product of market conditions.” We employ data disaggregated by local (county) labor market which permits a preliminary investigation of the importance of potential nonmarket influences that are not measurable using aggregate data, namely, the type of bargaining unit, the type of union, the type of employer, and proxies for union resources. It also allows a more precise specification of the labor market characteristics previously found to influence decertification. Our results confirm the importance of market conditions in decertification activity and outcomes, but they also suggest that the likelihood of decertification is much greater in independent unions and in industry-county combinations in which the typical employee works part-time and has limited alternative income opportunities. Institutional characteristics of the union and employer, individual characteristics of bargaining unit members, and local economic conditions are important determinants of decertification.     

Some empirical observations of relevance to the analysis of union wage determination

Six important empirical characteristics of the union sector need to be incorporated into future research on wage determination. These are 1) the extent of unionization, 2) the statistical correlates of unionization, 3) divergent trends in union and nonunion earnings, 4) union/nonunion wage differentials, 5) the determinants of union and nonunion wage change, and 6) wage imitation. Examination of these characteristics suggests the following about union wage determination. Union wages have advanced relative to nonunion since the mid 1950s, despite relative shrinkage of the union sector. Union wage changes show less sensitivity to business-cycle pressures than nonunion. Limited spheres of wage imitation surround certain major union negotiations. These observations can be fitted into recent analyses of wage determination under long-term employer employee relationships, and have relevance for anti-inflation policy. Research for this paper was undertaken while the author was a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and was supported by a grant from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. Views expressed should not be attributed to the Brookings Institution, its staff or trustees.     

The effects of management practices on union election returns

This paper examines the importance of management suppression tactics on union activity in the United States. NLRB data on individual certification elections which have recently become available for the period 1972–1976 are merged with structural, demographic, and industry characteristics of the 96 largest SMSAs to ascertain the role of strategy versus structure in explaining union outcomes. The measures of election-generated membership outcomes are voter participation, the margin of pro-union votes, and union wins. Union suppression practices under study include consent elections, election delays, formal objections after unions win a certification election, elections overruled because of management unfair labor practices, elections held by management petition, and the number of unfair labor practice charges per representation election. Five of the six measures of suppression are significant determinants of some facet of union expansion after adjusting for structural characteristics of the area work force.     

Employment-at-will: An empirical analysis

State courts differ on the employment-at-will doctrine. Most allow maximum employer discretion in employee dismissals, but a few have added significant protections against arbitrary termination of employment. Our hypothesis, tested via a probit model, is that this variation among states can be explained by a combination of statewide economic and demographic characteristics. The model correctly predicts the employment-at-will position of 47 of 50 states.     

Mediation outcomes and sources of impasse: An empirical investigation

This study examines two of the four determinants of mediation effectiveness identified in Kochan and Jick’s (1978) model of the public sector mediation process: source of impact and situational factors. Questionnaire data were directly obtained from 240 Bangladesh management and union officials. Discriminant analysis identified several sources of impasse for both union and management groups, but no situational factors were found to accurately predict case settlement. Results are discussed in terms of U.S. public sector mediation research.     

Millions of election outcomes from a single profile

By changing the choice of a positional voting method, different election rankings can result from a fixed profile. A geometric theory is developed to explain why this occurs, to completely characterize all possible sets of rankings that can arise in this manner, to determine the number of rankings and other properties of these sets of rankings, to design profiles that cause the different conclusions, to develop elementary tools to analyze actual data, and to compare new types of social choice solutions that are based on the set of rankings admitted by a profile. A secondary theme is to indicate how results for voting theory can be obtained with (relative) ease when they are analyzed with a geometric approach.This research was supported by NSF Grant IRI-9103180.     

Patterns and determinants of union growth in the hospital industry

Recent changes in the National Labor Relations Act have increased the possibility that union coverage will expand among private non-profit hospitals. This study examines the success of union organizing efforts in the industry during the 1974–1978 period. The analysis focuses on the influence of environmental and organizational variables as well as the nature of the election process itself. The results suggest that hospital union success is largely dependent uponprior union success in the hospital (+), voter turnout (−) and unit size (−). The annual rate of election victories is predicted to fall to nearly 25 % by 1983 from an average of 50% in the 1974–1978 period.     

An empirical analysis of valence in electoral competition

Spatial models of voting have dominated mathematical political theory since the seminal work of Downs. The Downsian model assumes that each elector votes on the basis of his utility function which depends only on the distance between his preferred policy platform and the ones proposed by candidates. A succession of papers introduces valence issues into the model, i.e., candidates’ characteristics which are independent of the platforms they propose. So far, little is known about which of the existing utility functions used in valence models is the most empirically founded. Using a large survey run prior to the 2007 French presidential election, we evaluate and compare several spatial voting models with valence. Existing models perform poorly in fitting the data. However, strong empirical regularities emerge. This leads us to a new model of valence that we call the intensity valence model. This new model makes sense theoretically and is grounded empirically.     

An analysis of the barriers to women becoming local union officers

This study examines the importance of barriers to the participation of women in local union activities. Male and female officers of local unions in Canada were surveyed to determine the importance of eight barriers to participation. The results indicate that the most important barriers are that women hold two jobs (at home and at work) and have no time for union activities; child care responsibilities prevent greater participation in unions; and women underestimate their abilities and believe that male employees are better suited to union officer positions. The analysis also explores differences in male and female ratings. Conclusions are reached regarding the importance of overcoming barriers at local levels in reducing the under-representation of women in national union governance. This study was supported by grants from the Canada Department of Labor and the University of Windsor. The authors wish to thank Elizabeth Rutherford for her research assistance.     

South-nonsouth differentials in National Labor Relations Board certification election outcomes

This paper investigates and evaluates the magnitude of regional differentials in outcomes in National Labor Relations Board elections. The data for this project include NLRB elections conducted during the period 1973–1978. The author wishes to thank Steven Hills, Michael Borus, Gil Nestel and Kezia Sproat of the Center for Human Resource Research for their comments on an earlier draft of this paper.     

Union merger benefits: An empirical analysis

The incidence of union mergers is on the rise, yet the determinants of the benefits of merging have never been systematically addressed. This article reports the results of research which identifies and validates five dimensions of union merger benefits. The author thanks Gary Chaison, Bob Hinings, Royston Greenwood, Phil Kienast, John Butler, and an anonymous referee for their advice and assistance with the study.     

An empirical analysis of alleged misunderstandings of coefficient alpha

Cronbach’s alpha is the most frequently used measure to investigate the reliability of measurement instruments. Despite its frequent use, many warn for misinterpretations of alpha. These claims about regular misunderstandings, however, are not based on empirical data. To understand how common such beliefs are, we conducted a survey study to test researchers’ knowledge of and beliefs about alpha. For this survey, we selected authors from recent papers, in which alpha was used. The results provide empirical evidence for the claims that researchers have difficulty interpreting alpha in a proper way. At the same time, we expounded the claims, by showing that whereas some beliefs are fairly typical, others are not so often seen. This non-technical paper, aimed at both statisticians and substantive researchers, is concluded by providing a few suggestions that could be helpful to get us out of the current stalemate regarding the usability of alpha and its alternatives.     

Member support for union mergers: An analysis of an affiliation referendum

A changing labor relations climate has caused many national unions to merge with smaller independent unions in recent years. One aspect of the merger process concerns the willingness of independent union members to support affiliation with a national union (Chaison, 1986). This article examines the determinants of indivudual-level voting behavior using data gathered from members of an independent union who rejected a proposed affiliation with a national union in a membership referendum. Logistic regression results indicate that affiliation supporters perceived the affiliation as improving union effectiveness, were influenced by social support among co-workers in favor of the merger, and perceived the saliency of the independent union’s support for the affiliation proposal. Conversely, affiliation opposition was influenced by the employer’s “vote no” campaign and by perceptions that affiliation would lead to an increased probability of strikes and to future increases in dues.     

Voting rules and election outcomes: When does the true majority win?

Majority-in-unit (MIU) and method of majority decision (MMD) voting rules are investigated to determine their impact on the outcome of union elections. A theoretical foundation is established to explain why voters may rationally choose not to vote in these settings. Numerical simulations are employed to compute the probability that the population majority wins the election. The results for these two methods are compared to see which one is most likely to award the election to the true population majority.     

An analysis of empirical estimates of sexual aggression victimization and perpetration

Estimates of prevalence for several categories of sexual coercion, including rape and attempted rape, were statistically aggregated across 120 studies, involving over 100,000 subjects. According to the data, almost 13% of women and over 3% of men have been raped, and almost 5% of men claim to have perpetrated rape. In contrast, about 25% of women and men claim to have been sexually coerced and to have perpetrated sexual coercion. In general, the mediating variables examined--population type, decade, date of publication, and type of operationalization--were not consistently related to rates of victimization or perpetration. Nevertheless, the extensive variation among study estimates strongly suggests the possibility of systematic sources of variation that have yet to be identified. Further analyses are called for to disentangle such sources.     

Farm business and the development of alternative farm enterprises: An empirical analysis in Greece

The objective of this paper is to provide a conceptual framework and an empirical evidence of farm business change in relation to the adoption and development of alternative farm enterprises (AFE). The present paper adopts a business typology and looks at the various paths of development. A range of factors condition which path of farm business development will be selected. Some factors relate to the farms' physical characteristics, its business and its human capital. A sample of 200 farmers in the prefecture of Etolia-Akarnania in Greece is analysed in order to identify the factors influencing the choice of farm business development. Three main paths of farm business development are identified in this lagging region of Greece. Conventional (mainstream) farming, alternative farm enterprise development and conventional farming with off-farm employment. Appropriate statistical modelling revealed that both economic and social factors exert an independent effect on the choice of farm business development. Proposals concerning the formulation of future rural policy in the lagging regions of Greece are drawn, based on the results derived from the analysis of the present sample.     

South/non-south differentials in national labor relations board certification election outcomes: Comment

A recent study of National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) certification elections concluded that there are no regional differences in the probability of unionization. This paper suggests that it is inappropriate to draw such broad inferences from NLRB data, since elections occur only where an initial preference for unionism has been expressed. Using a national data set on private sector hospitals, we demonstrate that Southern location significantly reduces the probability of having an election and the probability of negotiating a collective bargaining agreement, but it does not affect the probability of a union election victory. Opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the authors’ institutions. We would like to thank Peter Feuille and James Kuhn for helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

Twitter publics: how online political communities signaled electoral outcomes in the 2010 US house election

Online social networks are an important setting for understanding the intersection of online communities and offline political processes. This paper analyzes the different ways that people discuss elections on Twitter. Using data from a random sample totaling 113,985 tweets and 30,995 users, we examine the differences between users who employ various strategies to talk about US 2010 Congressional candidates. We show that users who simply include the text of a candidate's name in a message exhibit different behaviors than those who use platform-specific mechanisms. Users who employ free-text tend to have younger accounts, are less likely to be ‘verified’, and generate fewer messages about candidates. Furthermore, candidates’ share of the free-text Twitter public has a larger correlation with their vote tallies than @mentions or hashtags. This research has methodological implications for studying the dynamics between online discourse and offline behavior. Overall, our findings support the view that forms of communication that are more accessible are more indicative of broader social trends.