THE RIGHT AMOUNT OF TRUST

We investigate the relationship between individual trust and individual economic performance. We find that individual income is hump‐shaped in a measure of intensity of trust beliefs. Our interpretation is that highly trusting individuals tend to assume too much social risk and to be cheated more often, ultimately performing less well than those with a belief close to the mean trustworthiness of the population. However, individuals with overly pessimistic beliefs avoid being cheated, but give up profitable opportunities, therefore underperforming. The cost of either too much or too little trust is comparable to the income lost by forgoing college. Our findings hold in large‐scale international survey data, as well as inside a country with high‐quality institutions, and are also supported by experimental findings. (JEL: A1, A12, D1, O15, Z1)     

My Loss Is Your Loss … Sometimes: Loss Aversion and the Effect of Motivational Biases

Findings from previous studies of individual decision-making behavior predict that losses will loom larger than gains. It is less clear, however, if this loss aversion applies to the way in which individuals attribute value to the gains and losses of others, or if it is robust across a broad spectrum of policy and management decision contexts. Consistent with previous work, the results from a series of experiments reported here revealed that subjects exhibited loss aversion when evaluating their own financial gains and losses. The presence of loss aversion was also confirmed for the way in which individuals attribute value to the financial gains and losses of others. However, similar evaluations within social and environmental contexts did not exhibit loss aversion. In addition, research subjects expected that individuals who were unknown to them would significantly undervalue the subjects' own losses across all contexts. The implications of these findings for risk-based policy and management are many. Specifically, they warrant caution when relying upon loss aversion to explain or predict the reaction of affected individuals to risk-based decisions that involve moral or protected values. The findings also suggest that motivational biases may lead decisionmakers to assume that their attitudes and beliefs are common among those affected by a decision, while those affected may expect unfamiliar others to be unable to identify and act in accordance with shared values.     

Managing Wildfire Events: Risk‐Based Decision Making Among a Group of Federal Fire Managers

Managing wildfire events to achieve multiple management objectives involves a high degree of decision complexity and uncertainty, increasing the likelihood that decisions will be informed by experience‐based heuristics triggered by available cues at the time of the decision. The research reported here tests the prevalence of three risk‐based biases among 206 individuals in the USDA Forest Service with authority to choose how to manage a wildfire event (i.e., line officers and incident command personnel). The results indicate that the subjects exhibited loss aversion, choosing the safe option more often when the consequences of the choice were framed as potential gains, but this tendency was less pronounced among those with risk seeking attitudes. The subjects also exhibited discounting, choosing to minimize short‐term over long‐term risk due to a belief that future risk could be controlled, but this tendency was less pronounced among those with more experience. Finally, the subjects, in particular those with more experience, demonstrated a status quo bias, choosing suppression more often when their reported status quo was suppression. The results of this study point to a need to carefully construct the decision process to ensure that the uncertainty and conflicting objectives inherent in wildfire management do not result in the overuse of common heuristics. Individual attitudes toward risk or an agency culture of risk aversion may counterbalance such heuristics, whereas increased experience may lead to overconfident intuitive judgments and a failure to incorporate new and relevant information into the decision.     

A new quantitative method for assessing sleepiness: The alpha attenuation test

Abstract

Sleepiness interferes with the ability of night-workers and shiftworkers to safely and effectively perform their jobs, and has been increasingly recognized as a major cause of industrial and transportation accidents. Current methods for the assessment of physiological sleepiness levels, such as the Multiple Sleep Latency Test (MSLT) have several limitations and are particularly impractical in field or occupational studies. In this study, the effectiveness of the Alpha Attenuation Test (AAT) for the quantification of sleepiness has been evaluated and compared to the MSLT during a 40-h sleep deprivation protocol. The AAT, a 12-min eye closed/open protocol, is a quantitative method based on the fact that EEG alpha (8-12 Hz) activity tends to increase with eyes open as individuals get sleepier, while it decreases with eyes closed. In this validation study, the AAT proved to be a sensitive measure of sleepiness induced by sleep deprivation, and it also correlated well with the MSLT. Relative to the MSLT, the AAT has the advantages of being objective, minimally intrusive, and more practical especially in industrial or field studies.     

公平偏好如何影响开放式创新:一个基于计算经济学的研究

本文利用基于Agent的计算经济学方法和EWA学习模型,研究了不同公平偏好特征下创新主体对不同创新模式选择的问题。通过为Agent赋予四种不同的公平偏好类型:狭义的自利性偏好、竞争性偏好、差异厌恶性偏好和社会福利偏好,观察其在外向型开放式创新、内向型开放式创新、双向型开放式创新和封闭式创新四种创新策略之间的选择行为。研究结果表明:当创新主体具有狭义的自利性偏好时,封闭式创新和内向型开放式创新被选择的比例相当,并且多于外向型开放式创新和双向型开放式创新被选择的比例。当创新主体具有竞争性偏好时,封闭式创新被选择的比例又明显多于内向型开放式创新性。当创新主体具有差异厌恶性偏好时,外向型开放式创新被选择的比例也会明显减少,同时选择双向型开放式创新的主体基本消失。当创新主体具有社会福利偏好时,双向型开放式创新被选择的比例又会显著增加。     

An Experimental Study of Belief Learning Using Elicited Beliefs

This paper investigates belief learning. Unlike other investigators who have been forced to use observable proxies to approximate unobserved beliefs, we have, using a belief elicitation procedure (proper scoring rule), elicited subject beliefs directly. As a result we were able to perform a more direct test of the proposition that people behave in a manner consistent with belief learning. What we find is interesting. First to the extent that subjects tend to “belief learn,” the beliefs they use are the stated beliefs we elicit from them and not the “empirical beliefs” posited by fictitious play or Cournot models. Second, we present evidence that the stated beliefs of our subjects differ dramatically, both quantitatively and qualitatively, from the type of empirical or historical beliefs usually used as proxies for them. Third, our belief elicitation procedures allow us to examine how far we can be led astray when we are forced to infer the value of parameters using observable proxies for variables previously thought to be unobservable. By transforming a heretofore unobservable into an observable, we can see directly how parameter estimates change when this new information is introduced. Again, we demonstrate that such differences can be dramatic. Finally, our belief learning model using stated beliefs outperforms both a reinforcement and EWA model when all three models are estimated using our data.     

高管支持行为细分——企业IT应用中信任作用的实证检验

区别于以往高管信念对高管参与的影响研究,针对CEO与CIO特定代理关系,构建信念、关系、制度的高管支持细分模型,借鉴组织信任理论研究高管支持中信任的作用机制,运用偏最小二乘法和应用信息系统1年以上的118家企业数据对理论模型进行检验.实证结果表明,CEO对CIO的信任对CEO关系型参与有显著影响,但对CEO制度型参与的影响并不显著,且CEO制度型参与比CEO关系型参与对IT应用水平的提升效应更强,CEO对CIO信任的部分中介效应验证并强化了CEO信念作为高管支持行为来源的重要性.研究结果表明,并非高层的所有参与行为都会对企业信息化产生直接影响,只有高层管理者制度型参与才对企业信息化发展具有持续性影响,CEO信任CIO并未增强所有CEO参与行为,其仅对CEO关系型参与构成影响.     

An Exploratory Risk Perception Study of Attitudes Toward Homeland Security Systems

Understanding the issues surrounding public acceptance of homeland security systems is important for balancing security needs and potential civil liberties infringements. A psychometric survey was used in an exploratory study of attitudes regarding homeland security systems. Psychometric rating data were obtained from 182 respondents on psychological attributes associated with 12 distinct types of homeland security systems. An inverse relationship was observed for the overall rating attributes of acceptability and risk of civil liberties infringement. Principal components analysis (PCA) yielded a two-factor solution with the rating scale loading pattern suggesting factors of perceived effectiveness and perceived intrusiveness. These factors also showed an inverse relationship. The 12 different homeland security systems showed significantly different scores on the rating scales and PCA factors. Of the 12 systems studied, airport screening, canine detectors, and radiation monitoring at borders were found to be the most acceptable, while email monitoring, data mining, and global positioning satellite (GPS) tracking were found to be least acceptable. Students rated several systems as more effective than professionals, but the overall pattern of results for both types of subjects was similar. The data suggest that risk perception research and the psychometric paradigm are useful approaches for quantifying attitudes regarding homeland security systems and policies and can be used to anticipate potentially significant public acceptance issues.     

The Effect of Perceived Novelty on the Adoption of Information Technology Innovations: A Risk/Reward Perspective

A fundamental characteristic of any innovation is its novelty, the newness or freshness of the innovation in the eyes of the adopter. Past research has often considered novelty to be inherent to an information technology (IT) innovation, yet it is also likely that perceptions of novelty differ widely across individuals. Nevertheless, the role that the novelty of an IT innovation plays in adoption is not well understood. The primary goal of this research effort is to frame the perceived novelty of an IT innovation as a salient affective belief in the nomological network related to adoption. Further, we examine how perceived novelty influences the way individuals reconcile their perceptions of risk versus reward when considering the adoption of an IT innovation. Two empirical studies with 424 and 138 participants, respectively, examine the effect of perceived novelty on IT innovations from a risk/reward perspective. Results indicate that perceived novelty is a salient affective belief that plays a significant role in the adoption of IT innovations. Implications for both theory and organizational decision making are examined.     

Can Belief in a Just World Buffer Mood and Career Prospects of People in Need of Risk Protection? First Experimental Evidence

Research indicates that individuals high in belief in a just world (BJW) are confident that they will not fall victim to unforeseeable disasters. The current study tested the hypothesis that BJW acts as buffer that serves to sustain mood and career prospects of those in need of risk protection. Threat was manipulated by confronting participants with risks regarding their career outlook, and individual differences in threat perception were measured by degree of uncertainty tolerance. As hypothesized, BJW helped protect the mood of participants threatened by serious career‐related risks who were unable to tolerate uncertainty. The finding supported the buffer hypothesis regarding mood, but not career prospects, possibly due to a more conscious mindset or variability in self‐efficacy. However, BJW was overall positively associated with career prospects. Moreover, it was suggested that BJW can also serve as a personal resource, not only protecting from risk, but also enhancing mood among those with high uncertainty tolerance.     

Exploring the impact of motivations on the attraction of innovation roles in open innovation web-based platforms

Recently, a large number of new innovative enterprises engaged in different competitive markets by promoting innovation both in products and in services through open innovation web-based platforms, which allow for the collaboration of individual users and companies and for so-called crowdsourcing. A key issue concerns the identification of the most important motivations that could attract users with a specific role to proactively participate and contribute to the open and collaborative innovation processes. This article, after highlighting the theoretical background, grounded on large body of psychology and sociology literature on the motivation behind collaboration, discusses the results of the analysis of 26 open innovation web-based platforms based on a multiple research methodology (qualitative empirical study, factor analysis and multi-dimensional scaling). It also discusses the effects of ‘motivational systems’ and platform models on the attraction of the individuals characterised by different innovation roles.     

Early Warning Indicators for Challenges in Underground Coal Storage

Early warning or leading indicators are discussed for unexpected incidences in case of large‐scale underground coal storage at a power plant. The experience is compared with above‐ground stockpiles for which established procedures are available but where access for prevention and mitigation are much easier. It is suggested that while the explicit organization, procedures, and the general safety systems aim to provide the targeted levels of performance for the storage, representing new technology without much precedence elsewhere in the world, the extensive experience and tacit knowledge from above‐ground open and closed storage systems can help to prepare for and to prevent unwanted incidents in the underground storage. This kind of experience has been also found useful for developing the leading or early warning indicators for underground storage. Examples are given on observed autoignition and freezing of coal in the storage silos, and on occupational hazards. Selection of the leading indicators needs to consider the specific features of the unique underground facility.     

Risks of Ingestion of Aflatoxin-Contaminated Groundnuts in Benin: Scale Measurements, Beliefs, and Socioeconomic Factors

This study evaluates farmers' beliefs and perceived risks of aflatoxin (AF) on the consumption, production, and marketing of groundnuts. A survey was conducted with 181 farmers in Benin to assess their beliefs of AF effects on the marketing of groundnuts, and finally human and animal health. Awareness and action factors were also evaluated. Relationships of the belief and action factors with socioeconomic variables were evaluated using multiple indicators and multiple causes (MIMIC) models within a socioeconomic framework using a health belief model (HBM). The results indicate that the scale of the various constructs is reliable and the validity conforms to expectations. The unifactorial models developed in this study provide a satisfactory fit with NFl, CFI, and GFI exceeding 0.90. The results reveal that gender, age, and years of experience in farming significantly impact farmers' action regarding the reduction of AF in groundnut production and marketing. Male farmers are more likely to be aware of AF problems in groundnuts and feel more susceptible to the problems than their female counterparts. Gender and education seem to be dominating factors in the perception of barriers to mitigating the effects of AF, and male and older farmers are more likely to perceive the benefits of producing and marketing good quality groundnuts.     

Coping with work stress: Psychological benefits of exercise

Although the health-enhancing effects of physical exercise have been well documented, less is known about how exercise benefits stressed employees psychologically. This article examines exercise as a coping response, and identifies changes in self-schemata (a person's underlying belief systems about him or herself) as the means by which exercise affects coping resources. In addition, by drawing on schema theory and the exercise literature, the active components of an exercise programme and the individuals who might enhance their ability to cope with stress through such a programme are identified.     

THE EFFECT OF MASCULINE AND FEMININE BRAND NAMES ON THE PERCEIVED TASTE OF A CIGARETTE *

The purpose of the current study was to determine whether brand name can affect the public's evaluation of a product. All subjects smoked identical cigarettes. One group of subjects, however, knew the cigarettes by the name of “Frontiersman,” a masculine name, while the other group knew the cigarettes as “April,” a feminine name. Male and female subjects were asked to rate the cigarette on seven measures. Results show that women gave a more positive evaluation to the cigarette purportedly named “April,” while men gave a more positive evaluation to the identical cigarette when they thought it was named “Frontiersman.” In addition, women reacted more strongly than did men to brand name influence.     

The corporate board: confronting the paradoxes

Corporate governance and the role of boards is a topic hotly debated in boardrooms, associations and media across the industrialized world. However intense, discussions are largely national phenomena due to the widespread belief that boards cannot be compared on an international plane. The authors argue the contrary: that there is a great deal to be learned from such comparisons because boards in different countries are more similar than they are different. Insights are drawn from a four-year study the authors have conducted involving boards from eight countries. The full results have been published earlier this year by Oxford University Press, as The Corporate Board; Confronting the Paradoxes.     

Differentiating transformational and non-transformational leaders on the basis of neurological imaging

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the viability of using neurological imaging to classify transformational leaders, versus non-transformational leaders, as identified through existing psychometric methods. Specifically, power spectral analysis measures based on electroencephalograms (EEG) were used to develop and validate a discriminant function that can classify individuals according to their transformational leadership behavior. Resting, eyes closed EEG was recorded from 19 scalp locations for 200 civilian and military leaders. We also assessed follower or peer perceptions of transformational leadership through the use of the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (MLQ). Our discriminant analysis, which involved a two-step, neural variable reduction and selection process, was 92.5% accurate in its classification of leaders. Patterns in the spectral measures of the brain of leaders, including activity and network dynamic metrics, are discussed as potential correlates of transformational leadership behavior. The current work provides a better understanding of the latent and dynamic neurological mechanisms that may underpin the transformational leadership qualities of individuals.     

Animation in User Interfaces Designed for Decision Support Systems: The Effects of Image Abstraction,Transition, and Interactivity on Decision Quality*

This paper develops the idea of animation in user interfaces designed for decision support systems (DSS), proposes a framework to investigate the efficacy of animation in these interfaces, and reports on a study that examined the effects of properties of animation specified by the framework. Based on a review of selected background literature, principal properties affecting the efficacy of animation in user interfaces designed for DSS are identified and the effects on decision quality of three of these properties are hypothesized. To evaluate these hypotheses, data was collected in a laboratory experiment involving two different tasks. The results for both tasks indicate that animation in user interfaces designed for DSS should employ parallel as opposed to sequential navigation interactivity techniques. The decision quality of subjects that used a parallel navigation technique was significantly greater than that of those that used a sequential navigation interactivity technique. The results regarding the efficacy of image abstraction and transition effects varied by task. For one task, decision quality was significantly greater for subjects that used realistic as opposed to abstract images, but decision quality did not vary by transition effect. For the other task, decision quality was significantly greater for subjects that used gradual as compared to abrupt transition, but image abstraction had no effect on decision quality.     

Development of a Prediction Model for Hospital Closure Using Financial Accounting Data*

Numerous research studies have examined the use of financial accounting data in the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Partly due to a lack of available data, however, little work has been done in developing a closure prediction model specifically for hospitals. Using cost reports from the Health Care Financing Administration and a sample of 71 closed hospitals and a matched sample of 71 open hospitals, the current study examines the relationship between 21 financial accounting ratios and hospital closure. Univariate logit results indicate that hospital closure is significantly related to 17 of the 21 ratios one year prior to closure. Results are also presented using a multivariate model, and for the relationships two years prior to closure. The current study provides information helpful to users in identifying financial variables which may be important indicators of hospital closure.     

Modeling and Managing the Percentage of Satisfied Customers in Hidden and Revealed Waiting Line Systems

We perform an analysis of various queueing systems with an emphasis on estimating a single performance metric. This metric is defined to be the percentage of customers whose actual waiting time was less than their individual waiting time threshold. We label this metric the Percentage of Satisfied Customers (PSC.) This threshold is a reflection of the customers' expectation of a reasonable waiting time in the system given its current state. Cases in which no system state information is available to the customer are referred to as “hidden queues.” For such systems, the waiting time threshold is independent of the length of the waiting line, and it is randomly drawn from a distribution of threshold values for the customer population. The literature generally assumes that such thresholds are exponentially distributed. For these cases, we derive closed form expressions for our performance metric for a variety of possible service time distributions. We also relax this assumption for cases where service times are exponential and derive closed form results for a large class of threshold distributions. We analyze such queues for both single and multi‐server systems. We refer to cases in which customers may observe the length of the line as “revealed” queues.“ We perform a parallel analysis for both single and multi‐server revealed queues. The chief distinction is that for these cases, customers may develop threshold values that are dependent upon the number of customers in the system upon their arrival. The new perspective this paper brings to the modeling of the performance of waiting line systems allows us to rethink and suggest ways to enhance the effectiveness of various managerial options for improving the service quality and customer satisfaction of waiting line systems. We conclude with many useful insights on ways to improve customer satisfaction in waiting line situations that follow directly from our analysis.