COGNITIVE STYLE AND THE USEFULNESS OF INFORMATION*

The desirability of a merger/acquisition alternative depends in part on the perceptions of the decision maker. What sources of information are “useful” to the decision maker & Does the set of useful information remain constant for all decision makers; if not, do individuals using similar information sets have similar information processing characteristics? Do these sets vary as feedback is obtained during the decision process? To answer these questions, graduate students participated in a modified Delphi experiment, and the resulting data were analyzed by the two-way aligned-ranks nonparametric test. These test results affirm that in a merger/acquisition scenario, decision makers with different cognitive styles prefer different sets of information and these sets vary dynamically as feedback is incorporated in the decision-making process. Furthermore, information that contains worker and community welfare considerations is identified as “useful” five times more frequently by decision makers with a “feeling” cognitive style than those with a “thinking” style.     

DIMENSIONS OF UTILITY IN A REGIONAL PLANNING CONTEXT*

City and regional planners exist in an environment where they must satisfy numerous contending pressure groups. This paper illustrates an application of utility and decision theory in one such situation: the selection of a “land-use plan” for a large rural area in a southeastern state. The planning group was required to generate a utility matrix for a set of alternative plans consistent with their perceived hierarchy of needs for the region in question. Subsequently, expected value calculations were used to determine the optimal plan. The examination concludes with a discussion of the reliability and sensitivity of this approach, along with an exploration of areas for possible utilization and the problems attendent thereto.     

FAIRNESS IN COST ALLOCATIONS AND COOPERATIVE GAMES

In an economic environment where there is a conflict of interest among several parties, the job of an adjudicator is to devise a “solution” to this conflict that is “fair” or at least acceptable to all parties. For example, a cost accountant may have to allocate the cost of a research and development division or of a common power facility to several departments—each of which makes some use of the facility. Perhaps, several firms responsible for the pollution of a lake or river may be under a court order to clean up the lake, and he must decide how to distribute this cost among the several firms. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate through the above two examples how the theory of cooperative games may be of service to such an adjudicator. However, there are several different notions of “fairness,” and the decision as to which notion of “fairness” is appropriate to which conflict situation is a decision that at this point is beyond the theory of cooperative games. By examining these different notions of fairness, a person may find himself able to distinguish features of various solution proposals which make one solution “fairer” than another.     

Technical Note – Pricing Below Cost Under Exchange‐Rate Risk

Pricing below cost is often classified as “dumping” in international trade and as “predatory pricing” in local markets. It is legally prohibited from practice because of earlier findings that it leads to predatory behavior by either eliminating competition or stealing market share. This study shows that a stochastic exchange rate can create incentives for a profit‐minded monopoly firm to set price below marginal cost. Our result departs from earlier findings because the optimal pricing decision is based on a rational behavior that does not exhibit any malicious intent against the competition to be considered as violating anti‐trust laws. The finding is a robust result, because our analysis demonstrates that this behavior occurs under various settings such as when the firm (i) is risk‐averse, (ii) can postpone prices until after exchange rates are realized, (iii) is capable of manufacturing in multiple countries, and (iv) operates under demand uncertainty in addition to the random exchange rate.     

Path to “Stardom” in Globally Distributed Hybrid Teams: An Examination of a Knowledge‐Centered Perspective using Social Network Analysis

Although distributed teams have been researched extensively in information systems and decision science disciplines, a review of the literature suggests that the dominant focus has been on understanding the factors affecting performance at the team level. There has however been an increasing recognition that specific individuals within such teams are often critical to the team's performance. Consequently, existing knowledge about such teams may be enhanced by examining the factors that affect the performance of individual team members. This study attempts to address this need by identifying individuals who emerge as “stars” in globally distributed teams involved in knowledge work such as information systems development (ISD). Specifically, the study takes a knowledge‐centered view in explaining which factors lead to “stardom” in such teams. Further, it adopts a social network approach consistent with the core principles of structural/relational analysis in developing and empirically validating the research model. Data from U.S.–Scandinavia self‐managed “hybrid” teams engaged in systems development were used to deductively test the proposed model. The overall study has several implications for group decision making: (i) the study focuses on stars within distributed teams, who play an important role in shaping group decision making, and emerge as a result of a negotiated/consensual decision making within egalitarian teams; (ii) an examination of emergent stars from the team members’ point of view reflects the collective acceptance and support dimension decision‐making contexts identified in prior literature; (iii) finally, the study suggests that the social network analysis technique using relational data can be a tool for a democratic decision‐making technique within groups.     

EGO UTILITY,OVERCONFIDENCE, AND TASK CHOICE

This paper models behavior when a decision maker cares about and manages her self‐image. In addition to having preferences over material outcomes, the agent derives “ego utility” from positive views about her ability to do well in a skill‐sensitive, “ambitious,” task. Although she uses Bayes' rule to update beliefs, she tends to become overconfident regarding which task is appropriate for her. If tasks are equally informative about ability, her task choice is also overconfident. If the ambitious task is more informative about ability, she might initially display underconfidence in behavior, and, if she is disappointed by her performance, later become too ambitious. People with ego utility prefer to acquire free information in smaller pieces. Applications to employee motivation and other economic settings are discussed. (JEL: D83, D11)     

LOCUS OF CONTROL,TRUST, AND DECISION MAKING*

A theoretical connection was proposed between certain social personality variables, namely locus of control (Internal or External) and trust (High and Low) and the formal decision-making model of Subjective Expected Utility (SEU). Rather than adopting the traditional definition of these variables as “generalized expectancies” for behavior of self and others, locus of control and trust were reconceptualized as intrapersonal tendencies to favor, prefer, or otherwise bias the subjective probabilities entering into a decision computation. S's high in external control orientation did not differ from internals overall, but external males were more risk averse under certain choice conditions (female-sex-role appropriate dilemma, probability-estimate form). Low-trust S's were also more risk averse than high-trust S's, overall. Low-trust males generated maximally risk-averse choice solutions under the choice condition of feminine role problem appropriateness and probability estimation. In general, female S's made choices that were more consistent with SEU-predicted solutions than males.     

Following unique logics despite institutional complexity: An inductive study of academic inventors and institutional logics

This paper examines how institutional complexity, due to the availability of multiple logics, influences the behavior of academic inventors during an innovation process. Based on four case studies of medical technology innovations, this paper identifies three logics influencing academic inventors’ behavior: academic, market, and care logics. We identify several patterns that characterize the practices of academic inventors in a context with multiple institutional logics. Despite the availability of multiple logics, we observe a strong pattern of academic inventors predominantly following the market or the care logic. As for the influence of multiple logics, we find very limited interaction between logics (i.e., reinforcing, complementary and conflicting interaction), with the prevalent pattern being “no interaction” between institutional logics. Thus, instead of following several logics, academic inventors’ specific practices are mostly guided by a “unique” logic. This influence of logics leads to a clear pattern of “dominant” influence on behavior, reflected in individual strategies of “entrenching,” that is, a strategy based on building one’s behavior on a “unique” logic. However, the same available logics can also generate "aligned" influence, entailing behavior guided by several logics. But this occurs only if the academic inventor faces uncertainty regarding the exploitation of the intellectual property. With these findings, we add to the ongoing discussion concerning institutional complexity and individual behavior by elucidating in detail how institutional complexity can entail behavior guided by “unique” logics.     

Aus Fehlern Iernen

Learning from blunders. Experiences of an executive coach with problems and solutionsNot too often, even rarely, we are in a situation to talk about blunders or shortcomings within our coaching community. That really is a pity, because a discussion like this combined with reflection and feed back is the best and only way for a coach to avoid professional mistakes in his future. So this article is “somehow another kind” of contribution. The author reports his own 18 years of “blunder-experience” as well as professional mistakes of other coaches which he observed in mentor coachings and supervisions, he suggests outcomes, consequences and solutions. Topics are: Anger, aggression and “struggles of power” within the coaching process; dependence versus (internal) independence of a coach; transference and counter-transference within the coaching process; peanut politics within a coaching process. Result: the coach himself, his core values, his boldness directed to social risks and to natural consequences — combined with appreciative conversation and respecting clients — makes out the core dissolving capacity. Without mentor coaching and professional supervision every coach would be trapped into his personal “trap of mistakes” — and even worse: without recognizing this dilemma.     

ACROSS-INDIVIDUAL,WITHIN-INDIVIDUAL AND RETURN ON EFFORT VERSIONS OF EXPECTANCY THEORY1

The author reviewed the conceptual, methodological, and empirical problems associated with across-individual tests of expectancy theory predictions of work behavior. Based on the literature it was hypothesized that within-individual expectancy theory predictions would be superior to across-individual predictions. Using a sample of 159 college students, results were generally supportive: mean across-individual and mean within-individual correlations were r=.24 and r=.35, respectively. Also, in light of the widespread use of incremental (marginal) decision algorithms in various disciplines, it was hypothesized that a return on effort (ROE) predictor would yield better correlations than the conventional maximum expected benefits predictor. As hypothesized, correlations using the ROE predictor consistently exceeded correlations using the maximum expected benefits predictor in both the across- and within-individual paradigms r=.27 versus r=.18, and r=.52 versus r=.35, respectively.     

DISCRETE CHOICE WITH SOCIAL INTERACTIONS AND ENDOGENOUS MEMBERSHIPS

This paper is about selection of neighbors in models of social interactions. I study a general equilibrium model of behavior subject to endogenous social influences when heterogeneous individuals can choose whom to associate with, buying associations on a “memberships market”. Social effects in behavior turn out to be a stratifying force: The desire for valuable interactions induces inefficient sorting and may lead to the endogenous emergence of “social traps”. The theory is then used to suggest identification strategies that may solve, in a micro‐founded way, identification and selection problems that typically affect empirical work on social interactions. Such strategies offer a viable alternative when valid instrumental variables or randomized experiments are not available. (JEL: C26, D85, Z13, Z19)     

Decision Making in Cross‐Functional Teams: The Role of Decision Power*

Through a series of game‐theoretical models, this study systematically examines decision making in cross‐functional teams. It provides a framework for the design of an organization‐specific decision‐making process and for the alignment of a team's microdecision with the “optimal” decision that maximizes the firm's payoff. This study finds that even without changing the team leader, firms could change and even dictate the team's microdecision outcome via adjusting the team member's seniority, empowering team members with veto power or involving a supervisor as a threat to overrule the team decision. This finding implies that to reposition products in the marketplace, structuring cross‐functional teams’ microdecision‐making processes is essential.     

Generalized Steiner Problems and Other Variants

In this paper, we examine combinatorial optimization problems by considering the case where the set N (the ground set of elements) is expressed as a union of a finite number of m nonempty distinct subsets N ₁,...,N _m. The term we use is the generalized Steiner problems coined after the Generalized Traveling Salesman Problem. We have collected a short list of classical combinatorial optimization problems and we have recast each of these problems in this broader framework in an attempt to identify a linkage between these “generalized” problems. In the literature one finds generalized problems such as the Generalized Minimum Spanning Tree (GMST), Generalized Traveling Salesman Problem (GTSP) and Subset Bin-packing (SBP). Casting these problems into the new problem setting has important implications in terms of the time effort required to compute an optimal solution or a “good” solution to a problem. We examine questions like “is the GTSP “harder” than the TSP?” for a number of paradigmatic problems starting with “easy” problems such as the Minimal Spanning Tree, Assignment Problem, Chinese Postman, Two-machine Flow Shop, and followed by “hard” problems such as the Bin-packing, and the TSP.     

Behavior in a Dynamic Decision Problem: An Analysis of Experimental Evidence Using a Bayesian Type Classification Algorithm

Different people may use different strategies, or decision rules, when solving complex decision problems. We provide a new Bayesian procedure for drawing inferences about the nature and number of decision rules present in a population, and use it to analyze the behaviors of laboratory subjects confronted with a difficult dynamic stochastic decision problem. Subjects practiced before playing for money. Based on money round decisions, our procedure classifies subjects into three types, which we label “Near Rational,”“Fatalist,” and “Confused.” There is clear evidence of continuity in subjects' behaviors between the practice and money rounds: types who performed best in practice also tended to perform best when playing for money. However, the agreement between practice and money play is far from perfect. The divergences appear to be well explained by a combination of type switching (due to learning and/or increased effort in money play) and errors in our probabilistic type assignments.     

A FRAMEWORK FOR THE SYSTEM DESIGN PROCESS1

Much discussion and writing about “systems” is often superficial, glib, and of a non-operational nature. This paper presents a cohesive framework for the process of system design which is felt to be of operational value in the design and management of systems. The framework's central tenet is that all systems are made up of entities and the relationships among the attributes of those entities; and that in designing systems, two processes are used, inclusion and structuring. Inclusion is concerned with what entities to include in a system and structuring with how their attributes are to be related. The system design process is directed or driven by a set (system) of criteria. Systems must be viewed with a time dimension: evolution will and should take place, both in the systems themselves and, more importantly, in the criteria that drive the design and evolution of those systems. In this framework, all problem solvers can usefully regard themselves as system designers. Presentation of the framework is followed by examples, discussion of the criteria set, system design tools, and some implications for teachers and practitioners.     

HERESY IN DECISION ANALYSIS: MODELING SUBSEQUENT ACTS WITHOUT ROLLBACK *

When making a current decision, like choosing an experiment, a subject will often take into account “subsequent acts” which he does not yet commit to. Common practice requires modeling through preposterior analysis, which treats one act as certain, conditional on the intervening information modeled. This is not logically necessary since the same expected utilities could be obtained by properly conditioning utility on any selection of events (including subsequent acts). The subject could assess utility marginal on subsequent acts or conditional on subsequent acts treated as uncertain events. The preposterior model is a special case of the latter where conditioning information is sufficiently modeled to imply subsequent act probabilities of zero or one. This paper argues that attempts at preposterior modeling are often unsuccessful and have critically flawed much current practice in decision analysis. Simpler approaches such as the “acts-as-events” model are intrinsically less dependent on restrictive assumptions and have been successfully applied to many real-world decisions.     

Corporate planning a review of questions and answers

This paper is about corporate planning, seen primarily but not exclusively from the viewpoint of operational research. The reasons for the rise of interest in corporate planning are examined, as are the contributions which O.R. has made or can make to corporate planning problems. An abstract discussion of these problems concentrates on those posed by increasing “connectedness” in the environment. After comparing the responses of the “commonsense manager”, the model-oriented operational researcher, and the cybernetician, the question is posed: “How can the operational researcher or planner enhance the adaptive capability of his organization?” A case study illustrates one possible form of solution, the “modular” approach; and another, the “zoom-lens” is outlined. The relevance of global system modelling to the widening problems of the corporate planner is also considered, and related to the concepts previously discussed.     

Understanding Mechanisms Underlying Peer Effects: Evidence From a Field Experiment on Financial Decisions

Using a high‐stakes field experiment conducted with a financial brokerage, we implement a novel design to separately identify two channels of social influence in financial decisions, both widely studied theoretically. When someone purchases an asset, his peers may also want to purchase it, both because they learn from his choice (“social learning”) and because his possession of the asset directly affects others' utility of owning the same asset (“social utility”). We randomize whether one member of a peer pair who chose to purchase an asset has that choice implemented, thus randomizing his ability to possess the asset. Then, we randomize whether the second member of the pair: (i) receives no information about the first member, or (ii) is informed of the first member's desire to purchase the asset and the result of the randomization that determined possession. This allows us to estimate the effects of learning plus possession, and learning alone, relative to a (no information) control group. We find that both social learning and social utility channels have statistically and economically significant effects on investment decisions. Evidence from a follow‐up survey reveals that social learning effects are greatest when the first (second) investor is financially sophisticated (financially unsophisticated); investors report updating their beliefs about asset quality after learning about their peer's revealed preference; and, they report motivations consistent with “keeping up with the Joneses” when learning about their peer's possession of the asset. These results can help shed light on the mechanisms underlying herding behavior in financial markets and peer effects in consumption and investment decisions.     

Let's Call it Quits: Break‐Even Effects in the Decision to Stop Taking Risks

“Chasing” behavior, whereby individuals, driven by a desire to break even, continue a risky activity (RA) despite incurring large losses, is a commonly observed phenomenon. We examine whether the desire to break even plays a wider role in decisions to stop engaging in financially motivated RA in a naturalistic setting. We test hypotheses, motivated by this research question, using a large data set: 707,152 transactions of 5,379 individual financial market spread traders between September 2004 and April 2013. The results indicate strong effects of changes in wealth around the break‐even point on the decision to cease an RA. An important mediating factor was the individual's historical long‐term performance. Those with a more profitable trading history were less affected by a fall in cash balance below the break‐even point compared to those who had been less profitable. We observe that break‐even points play an important role in the decision of nonpathological risk takers to stop RAs. It is possible, therefore, that these nonpathological cognitive processes, when occurring in extrema, may result in pathological gambling behavior such as “chasing.” Our data set focuses on RAs in financial markets and, consequently, we discuss the implications for institutions and regulators in the effective management of risk taking in markets. We also suggest that there may be a need to consider carefully the nature and role of “break‐even points” associated with a broader range of nonfinancially‐focused risk‐taking activities, such as smoking and substance abuse.