TOWARD UNDERSTANDING THE CONTENTS OF THE “BLACK BOX” FOR PREDICTING COMPLEX DECISION-MAKING OUTCOMES

The purpose of this research is to show the usefulness of three relatively simple nonlinear classification techniques for policy-capturing research where linear models have typically been used. This study uses 480 cases to assess the decision-making process used by 24 experienced national bank examiners in classifying commercial loans as acceptable or questionable. The results from multiple discriminant analysis (a linear technique) are compared to those of chi-squared automatic interaction detector analysis (a search technique), log-linear analysis, and logit analysis. Results show that while the four techniques are equally accurate in predicting loan classification, chi-squared automatic interaction detector analysis (CHAID) and log-linear analysis enable the researcher to analyze the decision-making structure and examine the “human” variable within the decision-making process. Consequently, if the sole purpose of research is to predict the decision maker's decisions, then any one of the four techniques turns out to be equally useful. If, however, the purpose is to analyze the decision-making process as well as to predict decisions, then CHAID or log-linear techniques are more useful than linear model techniques.     

Product forecasting—the BAC 3–11 Airliner

Aircraft manufacture is often seen by cynics as a process of very powerful companies, generally American, foisting aeroplanes on to the airlines of the world much faster than they are really needed. Alternatively it is sometimes seen as a process of offering wonderfully bright technological aeroplanes to a market for whom they are not correctly specified. B.A.C. have, over the past 5 years, been occupied intensively in studying how to avoid either of these charges. The object of this paper is to give an idea of how the process used to produce future project proposals compares with the long range planning techniques of other industries. The process described is that used to research the requirement for which the BAC 3–11 200–250 seat airliner has been proposed.     

MOTIVATING STUDENTS IN THE OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT CLASS: CHALLENGES FOR THE PUBLISHING INDUSTRY

Motivating students to learn and apply operations management concepts is an important aspect of the learning process in an operations management class. While an emphasis on techniques and pedagogical technology has some motivational benefits, this paper proposes an emphasis on student/teacher interaction and a deeper understanding of complex situations. To support this approach, publishers should provide the materials to effectively use the new classroom technologies and the tools to support a wide variety of teaching styles. In addition, publishers should provide creative cross-functional simulations so that students can understand the role of operations management in the context of the firm. Finally, rich decision-making environments are needed to put the students in more realistic situations.     

基于中心化的微博热点发现方法

以解决微博平台海量信息碎片为切入点,结合微博信息文本短小、来源广泛、传播方式多样等特点,设计基于中心化的微博热点的发现机制。通过微博平台开放API记录的结构化元数据信息,设计微博的元数据模型,将微博热点发现看作是原始语料到热点语料簇的生产加工增值过程,设计以数据预处理技术为核心的语料初加工方法,以及基于短文本聚类、基于传播路径与用户行为的中心化深加工方法,构建完整的生产加工过程模型,并通过实例验证理论研究成果。     

A Knowledge Framework Underlying Process Management*

Organizations are increasingly implementing process‐improvement techniques like Six Sigma, total quality management, lean, and business process re‐engineering to improve organizational performance. These techniques are part of a process management system that includes the organizational infrastructure to support the improvement techniques. The knowledge‐based view of a firm argues that organizational knowledge is the source of competitive advantage. To the extent that the process management system enables knowledge creation it should be a source of competitive advantage. This study investigates the underlying framework and factors of a process management system that lead to organizational knowledge creation. Prior studies have considered knowledge creation in process improvement, but none have considered the role of the process management system. Specifically, the study uses the case study method to investigate multiple levels (organization level and project level) of two firms using Six Sigma as their chosen process management system. Analysis of the cases reveals that the leadership creates a supportive infrastructure enabling process‐improvement techniques to effectively create organizational knowledge. Interestingly, focusing on decision‐making tools and methods may not be effective without developing a supportive infrastructure. The proposed framework provides a basis for organizational leaders to think about how to design and implement a process management system to better enable knowledge creation in organizations.     

Decision Models for Robot Selection: A Comparison of Ordinary Least Squares and Linear Goal Programming Methods

The profusion of robot designs, the cost of testing, and the fact that robot operational parameter maximums are often mutually exclusive are factors that create a complex selection decision for the potential user. While formal robot testing standards are now in place, formal techniques to select robots for the testing process have not been addressed. A linear goal programming model is an effective tool for the decision maker for optimizing the robot selection process in terms of requirement priorities. It is also shown that this model provides a more stable result than the ordinary least squares estimator in the presence of statistical outliers of robot parameters. The methodology is illustrated through the use of current robot specifications.     

Game theory technique in investment planning

A planner makes use of various techniques in the process of planning. One of the techniques, which could be used effectively by the firm in investment planning, is the Game Theory. The purpose of the paper is to explain this technique with illustrations. The author has used this technique successfully in several decision-making situations and one of the real-life applications is presented here.     

Can technology be managed strategically?

The purpose of this article is to investigate techniques for inserting strategic management of technology into the overall business planning process. The method developed here begins with defining the technological profile of a company and then proceeds to expand the method to incorporate analytical procedure for technology futuring, and finally combining these long-range forecasts with the company's policies and plans into an integrated planning model. An illustrative case study of the NCR Corporation is appended to demonstrate the application.     

Data mining driven DMAIC framework for improving foundry quality – a case study

Six Sigma Define-Measure-Analyze-Improve-Control (DMAIC) methodology has been widely used across industries as the best systematic and data driven problem solving approach for quality improvement. Statistical Design of Experiment (DOE) is used in the ‘Improve’ stage for obtaining optimal process settings for significant variables contributing towards quality improvement. But, DOE is an offline activity requiring time and other resources for conducting experiments and analyses. Further, there are many small and medium scale enterprises that cannot afford to conduct DOE. Under such practical constraints, it is desirable to apply DMAIC using online process data under day-to-day production situations or with little changes in process settings without compromising production. In this article, we propose a DMAIC framework, driven by data mining techniques for defect diagnosis and quality improvement where historical and online process data can be effectively utilised. We have used two decision tree algorithms namely, Classification and Regression Tree and Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection in developing the proposed framework. The proposed approach is applied in an Indian grey iron foundry where conducting DOE is not a feasible option for the management. The result demonstrates a significant reduction in casting defect and validates the practical viability of this approach.     

On the adoption of lean manufacturing principles in process industries

Traditionally, the lean paradigm has been applied to discrete manufacturing of items that can be easily put together and taken apart. The process industry, on the other hand, transforms raw materials into cohesive units that are basically blended into a final product with parts that cannot be disassembled and then reassembled. The current lean literature provides numerous commendable examples of theory and practices of lean principles in discrete manufacturing. However, its application in process industry is limited. Furthermore, there is no systematic accounting of the lean literature in this sector, which may have contributed to lesser awareness in the industry. This paper provides a state-of-the-art review of lean manufacturing literature with respect to its applications in process industry. It contributes to the classification of literature in a manner which helps to identify strategies suitable for the adoption of lean concepts in process industry. The paper seeks to synthesise the literature with an emphasis on identifying the scope for lean in process industry and associated benefits. The review also presents an analysis of the lean tools and techniques that have been applied or have potential application in the process industry and the challenges to implement lean. We believe that such a comprehensive review will not only facilitate the adoption of lean in process industry but will also provide agenda for further research by exposing voids in the knowledge base.     

Understanding Organizational Safety Using Value-Focused Thinking

Decision analysis is recognized as the right way to make risk management decisions, using probabilistic techniques to assess the accident risk. It is also accepted that the decisions that individuals in the organization make affect the likelihood of an accident and thus managerial and organizational factors should be included in the risk modeling process. However, decision analytic techniques have not been used to understand the decisions that are made by these individuals. The initial domain for this research is marine transportation. We use the framework of value-focused thinking in order to understand safety decisions made within our research partner organization, a major domestic oil tanker operator. We describe the results of interviews held with managers and employees from this organization. Through these interviews, we sought to understand the values these experts apply in their roles within the organization and the objectives they seek to achieve to contribute to its overall safety performance. The end result is a framework that not only portrays the fundamental objectives of safe operations for various roles in the organization, but also interconnects these different decision contexts. We believe that this approach is fundamentally different from those used in previous work and that this is an interesting application of value-focused thinking.     

Developing strategic thinking

This paper looks at the problem of getting managers to contribute effectively to strategic planning, and focuses on the role of management development approaches in ensuring that this happens. A number of formal, and less formal, management development techniques are discussed in the light of their relevance for developing strategic awareness. The importance of providing exposure to strategic issues at an early stage in managers' careers is stressed, and also the need to encourage managers to take initiatives in obtaining their own development. Some of the most fruitful techniques involve taking full advantage of the ‘natural learning’ that takes place on the job, and those which provide a close integration between management development and the planning process—such as projects and ‘task forces’. Finally the role of senior managers in helping to create and maintain a climate in which strategic abilities can develop is discussed.     

Toward an Understanding of the Factors Affecting the Quality of the Audit Process*

The accounting profession has faced increasing pressure from external parties to monitor and improve the quality of the audit process. Similar to other service oriented industries, the accounting profession's ability to meet these pressures has been hampered by the lack of an objective means by which to evaluate process quality. In this research, groups of experienced auditors from two international accounting firms were used to develop and validate a set of key factors influencing the quality of the audit process and a corresponding set of measures for evaluating audit quality. The results support the belief that there exists a consensus among experienced auditors on a set of key audit quality factors which have a significant impact on overall audit quality. The results obtained go beyond those in prior audit quality research, in that the factors identified cover a broader scope and recognize the significant effect of the audit environment on process quality. The consistency between groups in the profession provides support for further use of the nominal group techniques in developing quality measures for processes in other service sector areas.     

Formulating the mess: The role of decision aids in problem formulation

Analytic decision aids have been criticized by some practitioners for their inability to address questions of problem formulation. These aids typically begin with the assumption that a problem has been recognized and stated, and that the task of the sequential step-wise analysis process is to indicate the optimal strategy in terms of a specified choice criterion. Writers such as Ackoff, Mason & Mitroff and Raiffa have argued that this approach may lead to solving the wrong problem, particularly when applied to ill-structured, complex organizational decision problems. The purpose of this paper is to provide a more thorough understanding of the nature of problem formulation and the use of techniques for assisting decision-makers in this process. The paper attempts first to develop an understanding of the process of organizational problem formulation through the examination of current literature and research. This is seen to be a necessary prerequisite for discussing the value of decision aids for problem formulation. Second, attention is focused on aids to problem formulation. Included is discussion about the matching of problem to problem type, creativity stimulants, dialectical inquiry and devil's advocate approaches, as well as the role of formal analysis as a stimulant for a policy dialogue process. Finally, the relationships between the various approaches are examined and a synthetic model for their use in problem formulation is suggested.     

Safe-by-Design: Stakeholders’ Perceptions and Expectations of How to Deal with Uncertain Risks of Emerging Biotechnologies in the Netherlands

Advanced gene editing techniques such as Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeat (CRISPR)/Cas have increased the pace of developments in the field of industrial biotechnology. Such techniques imply new possibilities when working with living organisms, possibly leading to uncertain risks. In the Netherlands, current policy fails to address these uncertain risks because risk classification is determined process-wise (i.e., genetically modified organism [GMO] and non-GMO), there is a strong focus on quantifiable risks, and the linearity within current governance (science–policy–society) hinders iterative communication between stakeholders, leaving limited room to anticipate uncertainties at an early stage of development. A suggested concept to overcome these shortcomings is the Safe-by-Design (SbD) approach, which, theoretically, allows stakeholders to iteratively incorporate safety measures throughout a technology's development process, creating a dynamic environment for the anticipation of uncertain risks. Although this concept originates from chemical engineering and is already widely applied in nanotechnology, for the field of biotechnology, there is no agreed upon definition yet. To explore the possibilities of SbD for future governance of biotechnology, we should gain insight in how various stakeholders perceive notions of risk, safety, and inherent safety, and what this implies for the applicability of SbD for risk governance concerning industrial biotechnology. Our empirical research reveals three main themes: (1) diverging expectations with regard to safety and risks, and to establish an acceptable level of risk; (2) different applications of SbD and inherent safety, namely, product- and process-wise; and (3) unclarity in allocating responsibilities to stakeholders in the development process of a biotechnology and within society.     

Nonparametric Estimation of the Probability of Detection of Flaws in an Industrial Component,from Destructive and Nondestructive Testing Data,Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

We consider the problem of estimating the probability of detection (POD) of flaws in an industrial steel component. Modeled as an increasing function of the flaw height, the POD characterizes the detection process; it is also involved in the estimation of the flaw size distribution, a key input parameter of physical models describing the behavior of the steel component when submitted to extreme thermodynamic loads. Such models are used to assess the resistance of highly reliable systems whose failures are seldom observed in practice. We develop a Bayesian method to estimate the flaw size distribution and the POD function, using flaw height measures from periodic in‐service inspections conducted with an ultrasonic detection device, together with measures from destructive lab experiments. Our approach, based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) techniques, is applied to a real data set and compared to maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and a more classical approach based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. In particular, we show that the parametric model describing the POD as the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of a log‐normal distribution, though often used in this context, can be invalidated by the data at hand. We propose an alternative nonparametric model, which assumes no predefined shape, and extend the ABC framework to this setting. Experimental results demonstrate the ability of this method to provide a flexible estimation of the POD function and describe its uncertainty accurately.     

Corporate planning at Rolls-Royce Motors Limited

In this article the authors describe the introduction to date of a formal planning process at a British manufacturing company which, according to its recent performance, had no pressing need to implement radical change. Is Rolls-Royce Motors' decision the symptom of a new trend in industry to overhaul planning techniques while the going is good? How was company morale used to justify a new planning style? Why did an evidently capable organization choose to engage consultancy assistance? While the company's intentions are not yet fully achieved, its experience may be of benefit to others contemplating a similar decision.     

Exact solution method to solve large scale integer quadratic multidimensional knapsack problems

In this paper we develop a branch-and-bound algorithm for solving a particular integer quadratic multi-knapsack problem. The problem we study is defined as the maximization of a concave separable quadratic objective function over a convex set of linear constraints and bounded integer variables. Our exact solution method is based on the computation of an upper bound and also includes pre-procedure techniques in order to reduce the problem size before starting the branch-and-bound process. We lead a numerical comparison between our method and three other existing algorithms. The approach we propose outperforms other procedures for large-scaled instances (up to 2000 variables and constraints). A extended abstract of this paper appeared in LNCS 4362, pp. 456–464, 2007.     

Trade Union Membership and the Free Rider Problem: the Role of Harassment Activities

Abstract. Although there exists an extensive literature which uses econometric techniques to examine the process of unionisation in the industrial countries, a well established theory about the individual propensity to join the union has still to be developed. We feel that the workers' personal relationships in the working places impinge on their decision to unionise. To this end, we have set out a coercion model of trade union membership without compulsory membership, based on the rank and file union members' harassment activities. Union members use these unfriendly activities to eliminate the free-rider ploblem, encouraging unionisation and reducing the cost of joining a union.     

Management and the social environment

Most social change in the past 50 years in the U.K. has been associated with the relatively slow maturing of a highly industrialized society. There are now clear signs that Britain is entering an ‘age of discontinuity’ and that, increasingly, social change will reflect transition from an industrialized to a post-industrial stage of development. This transition will inevitably involve a transfer of power in society, away from the industrial organization and on to other institutions—the state itself, organized labour, consumer organizations and various pressure groups. In the context of such changes it becomes more and more imperative that business organizations should take social factors into account in decision making and that managers should acquire new knowledge and techniques to enable them to contribute to this process. The role of the management educator should be to heighten social awareness among managers, to stimulate a need for knowledge of the social environment and of social change, to indicate where and how such knowledge can be acquired, and to help managers develop skills and techniques of analysis and decision-making appropriate to social data.