NON‐PARAMETRIC BAYESIAN INFERENCE FOR INHOMOGENEOUS MARKOV POINT PROCESSES

With reference to a specific dataset, we consider how to perform a flexible non‐parametric Bayesian analysis of an inhomogeneous point pattern modelled by a Markov point process, with a location‐dependent first‐order term and pairwise interaction only. A priori we assume that the first‐order term is a shot noise process, and that the interaction function for a pair of points depends only on the distance between the two points and is a piecewise linear function modelled by a marked Poisson process. Simulation of the resulting posterior distribution using a Metropolis–Hastings algorithm in the ‘conventional’ way involves evaluating ratios of unknown normalizing constants. We avoid this problem by applying a recently introduced auxiliary variable technique. In the present setting, the auxiliary variable used is an example of a partially ordered Markov point process model.     

Regime-switching pure jump processes and applications in the valuation of mortality-linked products

In this paper, we study the pricing of longevity bonds and an insurance contract on multiple lives in a regime-switching market driven by an underlying continuous-time Markov chain. For modeling dependent mortality, we make use of a Markov chain and some shot noise processes with regime switching. By using a martingale method, we give semi-analytical expressions for the price of longevity bonds and the premium of an insurance contract on the kth person to die.     

Parameter Estimation for Inhomogeneous Space‐Time Shot‐Noise Cox Point Processes

We consider the problem of parameter estimation for inhomogeneous space‐time shot‐noise Cox point processes. We explore the possibility of using a stepwise estimation method and dimensionality‐reducing techniques to estimate different parts of the model separately. We discuss the estimation method using projection processes and propose a refined method that avoids projection to the temporal domain. This remedies the main flaw of the method using projection processes – possible overlapping in the projection process of clusters, which are clearly separated in the original space‐time process. This issue is more prominent in the temporal projection process where the amount of information lost by projection is higher than in the spatial projection process. For the refined method, we derive consistency and asymptotic normality results under the increasing domain asymptotics and appropriate moment and mixing assumptions. We also present a simulation study that suggests that cluster overlapping is successfully overcome by the refined method.     

Rate efficient estimation of realized Laplace transform of volatility with microstructure noise

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the Laplace transform of volatility within a fixed time interval [0,T] using high‐frequency sampling, where we assume that the discretized observations of the latent process are contaminated by microstructure noise. We use the pre‐averaging approach to deal with the effect of microstructure noise. Under the high‐frequency scenario, we obtain a consistent estimator whose convergence rate is , which is known as the optimal convergence rate of the estimation of integrated volatility functionals under the presence of microstructure noise. The related central limit theorem is established. The simulation studies justify the finite‐sample performance of the proposed estimator.     

On a class of bivariate mixed Sarmanov distributions

Multivariate distributions are more and more used to model the dependence encountered in many fields. However, classical multivariate distributions can be restrictive by their nature, while Sarmanov's multivariate distribution, by joining different marginals in a flexible and tractable dependence structure, often provides a valuable alternative. In this paper, we introduce some bivariate mixed Sarmanov distributions with the purpose to extend the class of bivariate Sarmanov distributions and to obtain new dependency structures. Special attention is paid to the bivariate mixed Sarmanov distribution with Poisson marginals and, in particular, to the resulting bivariate Sarmanov distributions with negative binomial and with Poisson‐inverse Gaussian marginals; these particular types of mixed distributions have possible applications in, for example modelling bivariate count data. The extension to higher dimensions is also discussed. Moreover, concerning the dependency structure, we also present some correlation formulas.     

Transformed density rejection with inflection points

The acceptance-rejection algorithm is often used to sample from non-standard distributions. For this algorithm to be efficient, however, the user has to create a hat function that majorizes and closely matches the density of the distribution to be sampled from. There are many methods for automatically creating such hat functions, but these methods require that the user transforms the density so that she knows the exact location of the transformed density’s inflection points. In this paper, we propose an acceptance-rejection algorithm which obviates this need and can thus be used to sample from a larger class of distributions.     

Geometric Anisotropic Spatial Point Pattern Analysis and Cox Processes

We consider spatial point processes with a pair correlation function, which depends only on the lag vector between a pair of points. Our interest is in statistical models with a special kind of ‘structured’ anisotropy: the pair correlation function is geometric anisotropic if it is elliptical but not spherical. In particular, we study Cox process models with an elliptical pair correlation function, including shot noise Cox processes and log Gaussian Cox processes, and we develop estimation procedures using summary statistics and Bayesian methods. Our methodology is illustrated on real and synthetic datasets of spatial point patterns.     

Equal‐tailed confidence intervals for comparison of rates

Several methods are available for generating confidence intervals for rate difference, rate ratio, or odds ratio, when comparing two independent binomial proportions or Poisson (exposure‐adjusted) incidence rates. Most methods have some degree of systematic bias in one‐sided coverage, so that a nominal 95% two‐sided interval cannot be assumed to have tail probabilities of 2.5% at each end, and any associated hypothesis test is at risk of inflated type I error rate. Skewness‐corrected asymptotic score methods have been shown to have superior equal‐tailed coverage properties for the binomial case. This paper completes this class of methods by introducing novel skewness corrections for the Poisson case and for odds ratio, with and without stratification. Graphical methods are used to compare the performance of these intervals against selected alternatives. The skewness‐corrected methods perform favourably in all situations—including those with small sample sizes or rare events—and the skewness correction should be considered essential for analysis of rate ratios. The stratified method is found to have excellent coverage properties for a fixed effects analysis. In addition, another new stratified score method is proposed, based on the t‐distribution, which is suitable for use in either a fixed effects or random effects analysis. By using a novel weighting scheme, this approach improves on conventional and modern meta‐analysis methods with weights that rely on crude estimation of stratum variances. In summary, this paper describes methods that are found to be robust for a wide range of applications in the analysis of rates.     

Infinite Variation Tempered Stable Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Processes with Discrete Observations

We investigate transition law between consecutive observations of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes of infinite variation with tempered stable stationary distribution. Thanks to the Markov autoregressive structure, the transition law can be written in the exact sense as a convolution of three random components; a compound Poisson distribution and two independent tempered stable distributions, one with stability index in (0, 1) and the other with index in (1, 2). We discuss simulation techniques for those three random elements. With the exact transition law and proposed simulation techniques, sample paths simulation proves significantly more efficient, relative to the known approximative technique based on infinite shot noise series representation of tempered stable Lévy processes.     

Stepanov-like almost automorphic solutions for stochastic differential equations with Lévy noise

In this paper, we introduce a new concept of Poisson Stepanov-like almost automorphy (or Poisson S²-almost automorphy). Under some suitable conditions on the coefficients, we establish the existence and uniqueness of Stepanov-like almost automorphic mild solution to a class of semilinear stochastic differential equations with infinite dimensional Lévy noise. We further discuss the global asymptotic stability of these solution. Finally, we give an example to illustrate the theoretical results obtained in this paper.     

On the Correlation Structure of Gaussian Copula Models for Geostatistical Count Data

We describe a class of random field models for geostatistical count data based on Gaussian copulas. Unlike hierarchical Poisson models often used to describe this type of data, Gaussian copula models allow a more direct modelling of the marginal distributions and association structure of the count data. We study in detail the correlation structure of these random fields when the family of marginal distributions is either negative binomial or zero‐inflated Poisson; these represent two types of overdispersion often encountered in geostatistical count data. We also contrast the correlation structure of one of these Gaussian copula models with that of a hierarchical Poisson model having the same family of marginal distributions, and show that the former is more flexible than the latter in terms of range of feasible correlation, sensitivity to the mean function and modelling of isotropy. An exploratory analysis of a dataset of Japanese beetle larvae counts illustrate some of the findings. All of these investigations show that Gaussian copula models are useful alternatives to hierarchical Poisson models, specially for geostatistical count data that display substantial correlation and small overdispersion.     

Inflated modified power series distributions with applications

In certain applications involving discrete data, it is sometimes found that X = 0 is observed with a frequency significantly higher than predicted by the assumed model. Zero inflated Poisson, binomial and negative binomial models have been employed in some clinical trials and in some regression analysis problems.

In this paper, we study the zero inflated modified power series distributions (IMPSD) which include among others the generalized Poisson and the generalized negative binomial distributions and hence the Poisson, binomial and negative binomial distributions. The structural properties along with the distribution of the sum of independent IMPSD variables are studied. The maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the model is examined and the variance-covariance matrix of the estimators is obtained. Finally, examples are presented for the generalized Poisson distribution to illustrate the results.     

On characterizing the normal and poisson distributions

Multivariate normal, correlated multivariate Poisson and multiple Poisson distributions are characterized, in the class of exponential-type distributions, by the properties of the linear combinations of the variables, the properties of their cumulants and the recurance relation between the cumulants.     

Lévy Processes,Phase-Type Distributions,and Martingales

Lévy processes are defined as processes with stationary independent increments and have become increasingly popular as models in queueing, finance, etc.; apart from Brownian motion and compound Poisson processes, some popular examples are stable processes, variance gamma processes, CGMY Lévy processes (tempered stable processes), NIG (normal inverse Gaussian) Lévy processes, and hyperbolic Lévy processes. We consider here a dense class of Lévy processes, compound Poisson processes with phase-type jumps in both directions and an added Brownian component. Within this class, we survey how to explicitly compute a number of quantities that are traditionally studied in the area of Lévy processes, in particular two-sided exit probabilities and associated Laplace transforms, the closely related scale function, one-sided exit probabilities and associated Laplace transforms coming up in queueing problems, and similar quantities for a Lévy process with reflection in 0. The solutions are in terms of roots to polynomials, and the basic equations are derived by purely probabilistic arguments using martingale optional stopping; a particularly useful martingale is the so-called Kella-Whitt martingale. Also, the relation to fluid models with a Brownian component is discussed.     

A density function connected with a non-negative self-decomposable random variable

The innovation random variable for a non-negative self-decomposable random variable can have a compound Poisson distribution. In this case, we provide the density function for the compounded variable. When it does not have a compound Poisson representation, there is a straightforward and easily available compound Poisson approximation for which the density function of the compounded variable is also available. These results can be used in the simulation of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck type processes with given marginal distributions. Previously, simulation of such processes used the inverse of the corresponding tail Lévy measure. We show this approach corresponds to the use of an inverse cdf method of a certain distribution. With knowledge of this distribution and hence density function, the sampling procedure is open to direct sampling methods.     

A new lifetime model with decreasing failure rate

In this paper, we introduce a new lifetime distribution by compounding exponential and Poisson–Lindley distributions, named the exponential Poisson–Lindley (EPL) distribution. A practical situation where the EPL distribution is most appropriate for modelling lifetime data than exponential–geometric, exponential–Poisson and exponential–logarithmic distributions is presented. We obtain the density and failure rate of the EPL distribution and properties such as mean lifetime, moments, order statistics and Rényi entropy. Furthermore, estimation by maximum likelihood and inference for large samples are discussed. The paper is motivated by two applications to real data sets and we hope that this model will be able to attract wider applicability in survival and reliability.     

Robust Poisson likelihood estimation for frailty Cox models: A simulation study

Frailty models can be fit as mixed-effects Poisson models after transforming time-to-event data to the Poisson model framework. We assess, through simulations, the robustness of Poisson likelihood estimation for Cox proportional hazards models with log-normal frailties under misspecified frailty distribution. The log-gamma and Laplace distributions were used as true distributions for frailties on a natural log scale. Factors such as the magnitude of heterogeneity, censoring rate, number and sizes of groups were explored. In the simulations, the Poisson modeling approach that assumes log-normally distributed frailties provided accurate estimates of within- and between-group fixed effects even under a misspecified frailty distribution. Non-robust estimation of variance components was observed in the situations of substantial heterogeneity, large event rates, or high data dimensions.     

Non-asymptotic sequential confidence regions with fixed sizes for the multivariate nonlinear parameters of regression

In this paper we consider a sequential design for the estimation of nonlinear parameters of regression with guaranteed accuracy. Non-asymptotic confidence regions with fixed sizes for the least squares estimates are used. The obtained confidence region is valid for finite numbers of data points when the distributions of the observations are unknown.     

A class of correlated weighted Poisson processes

In this paper, we propose new classes of correlated Poisson processes and correlated weighted Poisson processes on the interval [0,1], which generalize the class of weighted Poisson processes defined by Balakrishnan and Kozubowski (2008), by incorporating a dependence structure between the standard uniform variables used in the construction. In this manner, we obtain another process that we refer to as correlated weighted Poisson process. Various properties of this process such as marginal and joint distributions, stationarity of the increments, moments, and the covariance function, are studied. The results are then illustrated through some examples, which include processes with length-biased Poisson, exponentially weighted Poisson, negative binomial, and COM-Poisson distributions.     

Tests for detecting overdispersion in poisson models

Collings and Margolin(1985) developed a locally most powerful unbiased test for detecting negative binomial departures from a Poisson model, when the variance is a quadratic function of the mean. Kim and Park(1992) developed a locally most powerful unbiased test, when the variance is a linear function of the mean. It is found that a different mean-variance structure of a negative binomial derives a different locally optimal test statistic.

In this paper Collings and Margolin's and Kim and Park's results are unified and extended by developing a test for overdispersion in Poisson model against Katz family of distributions, Our setup has two extensions: First, Katz family of distributions is employed as an extension of the negative binomial distribution. Second, the mean-variance structure of the mixed Poisson model is given by σ² = μ+cμ^r for arbitrary but fixed r. We derive a local score test for testing H₀ : c = 0. Superiority of a new test is proved by the asymtotic relative efficiency as well as the simulation study.