强化利益导向机制 抓紧抓好计生工作

利益导向机制就是以经济利益的调节为核心的一整套政策制度和管理方式的总和.计划生育工作中的利益导向机制,是以调节经济利益为主要手段,引导人们自觉自愿地遵守计划生育政策的一系列政策、法规、制度和管理方式的总和.通俗地说,就是我们制定的一系列计生政策、制度,都要使遵守计生政策的人得到实惠,使违反计生政策的人感到吃亏,从而引导人们自觉自愿地遵守计划生育政策.利益导向机制和社会制约机制、思想动力机制、服务保障机制一起,构成具有中国特色的计划生育管理机制.     

生育利益调节机制:计划生育走向公共治理

生育利益调节机制是解决人口数量、结构、素质等诸多问题的公共治理机制。该机制是对计划生育的拓展,把生育行为的选择权力还之于民。其核心是通过一系列调整生育收益和成本的公共政策,引导公民自主选择生育,使生育行为微观选择的宏观效应最终符合国家人口政策目标。其理论模型包括宏观模型、微观模型和传导机制。宏观模型是政府判断人口发展趋势、制定人口发展战略的依据,微观模型体现了公民生育行为选择的过程,传导机制是根据宏观模型制定的一系列改变公民边际生育收益及成本、具有生育行为替代效应的公共政策。     

风沙尘暴与人口行为分析

1993年5月5比,一场特大风沙尘暴席卷中国西北部分地区,给工农业生产和人民生命财产造成了巨大损失.据统计,直接经济损失约5.6亿元,死亡67人.本文着重分析了人口行为引起下垫面结构破坏,生态环境恶化与“5.5”特大风沙尘暴发生的关系.并据此提出了以防为主,控制人口数量,调整农村燃料结构,合理开发水土资源,依法加强对工矿、交通、城建的环境管理,尽可能防止由于人口不利活动导致的沙漠化扩大或将风沙尘暴的危害降至最低程度.     

推行利益导向机制

计划生育工作中的利益导向机制,是以调节经济利益为主要手段,引导人们自觉自愿地遵守计划生育政策的一系列政策、法规、制度和管理方式的总和。它由激励机制和处罚机制两个部分组成。利益导向机制是计划生育工作机制中的一个重要组成部分。在推行计划生育利益导向机制工...     

完善计划生育利益导向机制的思考

计划生育利益导向机制是政府为推动计划生育工作健康发展,引导群众自觉实行计划生育,给予实行计划生育的家庭以经济补偿和政策倾斜的机制。计划生育利益导向机制的主要特点是政府主导、利益调节、奖惩并重、政策推动、长期稳定。江西省南昌市计划生育利益导向机制至今已经实行了将近6年,为了解利导机制的实行效果和存在的不足,我们走访了南昌市的部分计划生育家庭,对他们的生活情况进行了了     

草原人口生态压力持续增长态势与解决方法--经济诱导式生态移民工程的可行性分析

在草原人口持续增长,人口生态压力持续增大态势下,加大生态移民力度,对解决草原生态及沙尘暴问题,势在必行。移民治理方式相对其他治理方式,在效果上、财政资金使用上可能是最节俭、有效的。合理安排现有生态治理资金,调节移民政策,以国家经济政策引导,而非强制方式进行生态移民将使草原治理取得积极进展。     

南京:构建社区流动人口计划生育管理和服务平台

近年来,南京市采取了一系列有效措施,切实加强和改进了社区流动人口计划生育管理与服务工作。一是整合社区资源,创新工作机制。市人口计生委选择了具有商贸业繁荣发达、企事业单位成份复     

探索建设群众满意工程的长效机制

建立计划生育新的工作机制是国家人口计生委2005年的重点工作之一,也是计划生育综合改革的核心内容.机制建设具有长期性、稳定性、全局性和根本性.机制就是要把临时之举经常化,局部措施制度化.使用于落实某项政策或任务的手段变成相对稳定的办法和措施.对我们的计划生育工作来说,"机制"就是一个能够在较长时间内执行的法律、法规、文件、协议和责任书.计划生育部门进行机制建设的目的是探索建设群众满意工程的长效机制,使群众在计划生育中得到更多的实惠,从而减小计划生育工作的难度,提高计划生育工作的水平.基于以上认识,我们在机制建设方面做了一些探索.     

全国部分省份对农村计划生育家庭实施奖励扶助政策的探索和实践

近年来，各地不断加大对计划生育家庭，特别是农村独生子女和双女家庭的奖励优惠力度，出台了一系列有利于稳定低生育水平和促进农村发展的政策措施，为初步建立计划生育家庭奖励扶助机制探索了新路。以下是部分省份的做法，特别是政府的相关规定。     

有关“关爱女孩”利益导向机制实施办法

为加快完善“关爱女孩”机制建设，结合张湾区实际情况，特制定落实奖励、扶持、补助、优惠等一系列政策措施。     

Hurricane Katrina: Who Stayed and Why?

This paper contributes to the growing body of social science research on population displacement from disasters by examining the social determinants of evacuation behavior. It seeks to clarify the effects of race and socioeconomic status on evacuation outcomes vis-a-vis previous research on Hurricane Katrina, and it expands upon prior research on evacuation behavior more generally by differentiating non-evacuees according to their reasons for staying. This research draws upon the Harvard Medical School Hurricane Katrina Community Advisory Group’s 2006 survey of individuals affected by Hurricane Katrina. Using these data, we develop two series of logistic regression models. The first set of models predicts the odds that respondents evacuated prior to the storm, relative to delayed- or non-evacuation; the second group of models predicts the odds that non-evacuees were unable to evacuate relative to having chosen to stay. We find that black and low-education respondents were least likely to evacuate prior to the storm and among non-evacuees, most likely to have been unable to evacuate. Respondents’ social networks, information attainment, and geographic location also affected evacuation behavior. We discuss these findings and outline directions for future research.     

Effect of aggregation on the estimation of trend in mortality

There are three approaches to analyzing and forecasting age‐specific mortality: (1) analyze age‐specific data directly, (2) analyze each cause‐specific mortality series separately and add the results, (3) analyze cause‐specific mortality series jointly and add the results. We show that if linear models are used for cause‐specific mortality, then the three approaches often give close results even when cause‐specific series are correlated. This result holds for cross‐correlations arising from random misclassification of deaths by cause, and also for certain patterns of systematic misclassification. It need not hold, if one or more causes serve as “leading indicators”; for the remaining causes, or if outside information is incorporated into forecasting either through expert judgment or formal statistical modeling. Under highly nonlinear models or in the presence of modeling error the result may also fail. The results are illustrated with U.S. age‐specific mortality data from 1968–1985. In some cases the aggregate forecasts appear to be the more credible ones.     

欧债危机下的养老金制度改革——从福利国家到高债国家的教训

文章从人口老龄化的角度,分析了老龄化成本的含义和构成及其导致希腊陷入债务危机的诱因,认为欧洲尤其是希腊的养老金体系存在的替代率过高、待遇率严重失衡、养老金财富总值超出支付能力等问题提升了老龄化的财务成本;作者在分析了欧债危机下世界改革养老金的趋势后,认为中国养老金制度中存在参数不合理、缺乏个人激励机制、市场激励因素弱化、再分配因素失衡等潜在的财务风险,建议重视第二支柱的建设以部分转移第一支柱的财务风险,逐渐提高退休年龄以重建科学的制度参数,重塑账户的激励功能以增强制度收入能力,建立制度防火墙以规避潜在财务风险。     

Going home after Hurricane Katrina: Determinants of return migration and changes in affected areas

This article examines the decision of Hurricane Katrina evacuees to return to their pre-Katrina areas and documents how the composition of the Katrina-affected region changed over time. Using data from the Current Population Survey, we show that an evacuee’s age, family income, and the severity of damage in an evacuee’s county of origin are important determinants of whether an evacuee returned during the first year after the storm. Blacks were less likely to return than whites, but this difference is primarily related to the geographical pattern of storm damage rather than to race per se. The difference between the composition of evacuees who returned and the composition of evacuees who did not return is the primary force behind changes in the composition of the affected areas in the first two years after the storm. Katrina is associated with substantial shifts in the racial composition of the affected areas (namely, a decrease in the percentage of residents who are black) and an increasing presence of Hispanics. Katrina is also associated with an increase in the percentage of older residents, a decrease in the percentage of residents with low income/education, and an increase in the percentage of residents with high income/education.     

Fatal tradeoff? Toward a better understanding of the costs of not evacuating from a hurricane in landfall counties

Given the significant population increases in United States hurricane-prone coastal areas since 1970, we empirically model U.S. coastal hurricane fatalities from 1970 to 2007. The findings suggest that an apparent decline in hurricane fatality risk since 1970 may be overstated, especially considering the impact of evacuation levels achieved, and that various factors believed to affect the rate of hurricane fatalities have divergent outcomes. The research also illustrates the necessity of understanding the impact of a seminal storm such as Hurricane Katrina. In the analyses, we account for the coastal versus inland county location in the raw fatality data, as well as for the role of evacuation using zero-inflated specifications to handle the excessive number of zero fatality county observations. Initial results, with and without the fatalities from Hurricane Katrina, show that the expected count of fatalities increases by a factor of 1.7–3.4 for a one category level increase in storm strength, and begin to provide an understanding of the bias in the fatality data by varying the level of county evacuation achieved. Finally, we find a higher expected count of fatalities for more frequently struck counties, especially those in the Gulf of Mexico; a lower expected count of fatalities for counties with higher percentages of the population over 65, less than 18, and in poverty. We have also found that forecasting technology improvements have had a relatively minor effect on the expected count of fatalities.     

The fertility effect of catastrophe: U.S. hurricane births

Anecdotal evidence has suggested increased fertility rates resulting from catastrophic events in an area. In this paper, we measure this fertility effect using storm advisory data and fertility data for the Atlantic and Gulf-coast counties of the USA. We find that low-severity storm advisories are associated with a positive and significant fertility effect and that high-severity advisories have a significant negative fertility effect. As the type of advisory goes from least severe to most severe, the fertility effect of the specific advisory type decreases monotonically from positive to negative. We also find some other interesting demographic effects.     

Prey or host searching behavior that leads to a sigmoid functional response in invertebrate predators and parasitoids

Summary Invertebrate predators and parasitoids have long been characterized as having a hyperbolic (Type 2) functional response. Modifications were made to Holling's sand paper disc experiment which consisted of limiting the initial period of search during which a host must be contacted. Failure to contact a host during this initial period causes the predator to emigrate from the search area. The modification generated a sigmoid (Type 3) functional response. This response resulted from the low probability of encountering a host during the initial period of search at low host densities in the time allotted. A limited period of search has been found in several insect parasitoids. Such a strategy would minimize the time (energy) spent per offspring produced by minimizing the time invested in searching microhabitats in which hosts are scarce or absent. The work was supported in part by NSF Grant DEB-75-04223 and by a grant from the Netherlands Dranization for the Advancement of Pure Research (ZWO).     

Fertility after natural disaster: Hurricane Mitch in Nicaragua

This investigation evaluates the effect of Hurricane Mitch on women’s reproductive outcomes throughout Nicaragua. This research aim is achieved by analyzing a unique Nicaraguan Living Standards Measurement Study panel dataset that tracks women’s fertility immediately before and at two time points after Hurricane Mitch, combined with satellite-derived municipality-level precipitation data for the 10-day storm period. Results show higher odds of post-disaster fertility in municipalities receiving higher precipitation levels in the immediate post-Hurricane Mitch period. However, fertility normalizes between disaster and non-disaster areas 4 to 6 years after the storm. These findings suggest that the disruptive effects of a natural disaster such as Hurricane Mitch can have an initial stimulative effect on fertility but that effect is ephemeral.     

Ethnic dimensions of gender differentials in mortality in Malaysia

Higher mortality rates among males are a common occurrence across different cultures and countries. The causes of this higher mortality can be biological as well as behavioural in nature. The biological evidence applies across all nations and communities, but the behavioural causes, arising from the decision processes and communication strategies of individuals, will necessarily have cultural and environmental dimensions that change with time. This study examines gender disparities in mortality across ethnicity and time in Malaysia. The study shows that there is a consistent gender differential across time but it has widened for the Malays and the Indians and narrowed for the Chinese. Most importantly, it has widened considerably for young adults. Analysis of the leading causes of death show that young adult males are more likely to engage in risk-taking behaviour, and that the related causes and the extent of such causes vary across the ethnic groups.     

Mortality in England and Wales from 1848 to 1947

This is a survey of the changing causes of death in England and Wales during the past 100 years. Based on the published mortality statistics of the General Register Office the framework of the survey is a series of specially prepared tables of death rates by sex, age and cause of death for the periods 1848–72, 1901–10, 1921, 1931, 1939 and 1947. Adjustments were made wherever necessary to compensate for changes in medical nomenclature and in the statistical classification of disease.

After allowance has been made for the changing age structure of the population, the male death rate at all ages in 1947 was 42% of the rate in 1846–50, and the female rate 35 %. Maximum improvement was among girls aged 5–9 years, whose death rate in 1947 was 9% of the rate 100 years before.

In 1848–72 the group to which were allocated the largest proportion of the deaths at all ages were the infectious diseases with one-third of the total; and these were followed by the respiratory, nervous and digestive diseases. In 1947, on the other hand, diseases of the circulatory system came first with rather more than one-third of the total at all ages, and these were followed by cancer.

Changes in proportionate mortality rates from various causes have been examined at successive ages from infancy to old age. There was a decline in proportionate mortality from the infectious diseases other than tuberculosis, but increased mortality from tuberculosis in the younger age groups and from violence, circulatory diseases and cancer.

The trends of absolute mortality from the various causes were also studied. The reduction in total mortality was such that whereas there were half a million deaths of civilians registered in England and Wales in 1947, the total would have been over a million had the death rates of 1848–72 still prevailed.

The article concludes with a brief review of the factors responsible for the changes that have taken place.