美国社会保障退休金确定机制——方法、特点与启示

养老金待遇确定机制是公共养老金制度的核心内容之一。从三个方面系统研究了美国社会保障退休金确定机制:在退休年龄方面,实现了劳动关系和社会保障关系的相对分离,通过引入“全额领取年龄”建立了“早减晚增”式初始退休金调节机制;在计算办法方面,建立了基于个体的、全国统一的基本保险金额计算办法,并通过分级加权实现了收入再分配和减少老年贫困等功能;在待遇调整方面,建立了基于生活成本调整的退休金指数化自动调整机制。立足我国基本养老保险制度实践、借鉴美国退休金制度设计经验,本文认为我国基本养老保险待遇确定机制改革的方向是引入较为宽松灵活的退休政策、待遇计发与全国性指标挂钩以促进全国统筹和制度公平、增强待遇计发对参保和缴费行为的激励作用、尽快建立科学合理的待遇调整机制。     

提前退休模式与行为及其影响因素——基于中国综合社会调查数据的分析

文章基于2008年中国综合社会调查数据,对城镇人口提前退休模式与行为及其影响因素进行了分析。主要结论是:(1)提前退休模式与行为存在显著的性别差异,女性比男性距离法定退休年龄更近时退休,表现出较为明显的集聚特征,法定退休年龄对女性退休模式与行为的影响更大;(2)随着中国家庭子女数量的减少,劳动力市场灵活性的逐步增强,人们劳动参与意愿和可能性都会显著提升,提前退休的可能性越来越小,而且不断提高的受教育程度也会使女性提前退休的可能性减小;(3)中国的社会保障制度对男性提前退休有显著影响,对女性则不显著。与养老保险制度相比,医疗保险与失业保险制度对男性提前退休的影响更大,基本医疗保险制度的完善会增加提前退休的可能性,失业保险制度的完善更有可能增强男性的工作意愿,降低提前退休的可能性。     

延迟退休的影响效果分析

近年来．延迟退休的问题引发了学术界和社会大众的广泛讨论。本文将研究视点放在提高退休年龄对养老金支付和劳动力就业的影响效果方面。通过构建不同的计量模型,实际估算了延迟退休对养老保险基金收支变化的影响．以及对劳动力市场的就业挤出效应。结果发现：提高法定退休年龄对养老金缺口存在一定的补偿效应。但从短期来看效果有限;而对就业总量的确将产生挤出效应。并发现,老年人就业岗位与青年人就业岗位之间存在替代性,也就是说延迟退休将严重影响青年人的就业。因此建议政府要慎重考虑并只能在适当的时机推动延迟退休。     

老龄多人口死亡率联合建模与一致性预测

退休年龄以上的老年人群死亡率预测是养老金精算和长寿风险度量的基础。针对我国大陆地区退休年龄以上人群死亡率数据量较小且波动较大的问题,借助多人口联合建模思想,基于单人口CBD模型,提出了一个适用于老龄死亡率建模的Logistic多人口模型。通过加入更多相关人口数据信息来预测我国老年人口死亡率,选取我国台湾地区分性别死亡率相关数据,与我国大陆地区分性别死亡率数据进行联合建模。研究发现,Logistic多人口死亡率模型比单人口CBD模型表现出更好的拟合效果和长期预测一致性效果。     

Retirement patterns in Hong Kong: a censored regression analysis

This paper provides an overview of retirement patterns in Hong Kong on the basis of limited data. A censored regression model is used to infer the retirement age from people‘s current retirement status and their current age. This model is equivalent to a restricted probit model, and the interpretation of parameters is straightforward. The results clearly show a negative income effect on the retirement decision. The retirement age seems to be positively related to lifetime earnings but negatively related to the rate of decline of earnings with age. JEL classification: C24, J14, J26 Received May 6, 1996 / Accepted February 5, 1997     

Social security reforms and early retirement

Many reform proposals of the social security systems in various OECD economies suggest to scale down the non-actuarial parts of the pension systems. These reforms have a flavor of increased efficiency at the costs of welfare losses for low-income individuals. Assessing the economic effects, we investigate five different reform proposals by means of a numerical overlapping generations model for the Norwegian economy. The model features an endogenous retirement age and heterogeneous individuals within generations. It turns out that the various reforms, which scale down the public non-actuarial pension system, lead to increases in the retirement age and steady-state welfare gains for all income classes. Received: 7 December 2000/Accepted: 29 January 2002 All correspondence to ?ystein Th?gersen. Financial support from the Research Council of Norway (The Economic Research Program on Taxation) is gratefully acknowledged. We are indebted to Lans Bovenberg, John Ermisch, Erling Steigum and two referees for valuable comments and useful discussion. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch.     

延迟退休对职工效用最大化的影响——基于“S”型效用函数的分析

"十四五"规划提出"实施渐进式延迟法定退休年龄",如何使延迟退休政策被大众广泛接受是我国养老保险制度改革的重点问题。基于个人效用最大化原理,结合我国现行养老保险制度和前景价值函数中的"S"型效用函数,构建关于工资收入、养老保险缴纳费用、养老金财富和闲暇时间的综合效用模型,从性别、闲暇偏好、工资收入水平、利率、参保年龄、养老金个人缴费率六个方面确定个人效用最大化的退休年龄,并结合我国当前国情,对延迟退休政策提出针对性的建议。研究结果表明:不同退休年龄下的个人效用函数是关于退休年龄的"先大幅上升,后缓慢下降"曲线。男性参保职工于63岁退休获得效用最大值,而女性参保职工于60岁退休获得效用最大值,且二者最优退休年龄并不会随工资收入水平的改变而改变,工资收入水平只会对参保职工获得的效用绝对值产生影响,工资收入水平越高,参保职工获得效用值越大。此外,若闲暇偏好越低、利率越低、参保年龄越大、养老保险个人缴费率越低,则参保职工的最优退休年龄就越大。总体而言,只有考虑性别因素、给予延迟退休政策适当的弹性操作空间、改进养老保险计发办法、创造更好的老年就业环境,才能使延迟退休政策更好地推行。     

中国新企业年金替代率测算及其敏感性分析

企业年金在多支柱养老保险体系中发挥着越来越重要的作用。企业年金替代率是企业养老保险的一个重要指标。本文构建了一个测算企业年金替代率的现金流平衡模型。基于现金流平衡模型,我们对影响企业年金替代率的诸因素进行了敏感性分析。不同于大多数的以往研究方法,我们应用三状态Markov转换模型分析了年金基金投资收益率的长期走势。研究表明,逐步延长退休年龄或提供投资收益可以提高企业年金替代率。因此,应通过实施弹性退休制,改善企业年金资产的投资环境,实施更多的税收优惠政策,以及其他配套措施,以促进我国企业年金的可持续发展。     

弹性退休制度与养老保险保障制度整合初论

弹性退休政策是退休养老保险保障制度的重要组成部分,是退休制度与养老保险保障制度整合的重要制度链。实施弹性退休政策有其内在的经济学与社会学理论依据,弹性退休制度对养老保险保障制度产生根本性影响,完善弹性退休政策的激励机制是实施弹性退休政策的基本前提。     

中国城镇基本养老保险金“年龄缺口”分析——基于延长退休年龄的假设

基于我国目前城镇基本养老保险的制度设计,以及对未来中国人口老龄化的预期,可以说城镇基本养老制度,在未来所要承受巨大的挑战将是毫无疑问的。目前理论界也就此问题提出了各种解决方法以及相关的效用分析。本文通过对“延长法定退休年龄”这一解决基本养老制度压力的途径进行假设,对不同法定退休年龄状态下,从目前到2050年的时间范围内,对我国城镇基本养老保险金的“年龄缺口”进行描述和分析。从而为应对人口老龄化带来的制度压力提供理论支持。     

美国联邦退休金制度:变迁、管理、启示

美国联邦退休金制度形成于20世纪60年代,目前已成为美国养老保险体系的一个重要支柱,其在资金筹集与运营、退休金计发以及管理责任分担方面的制度安排,启示着我国养老保险制度建设必将是一个渐进而复杂的过程。在这一过程中,养老保险的覆盖范围需不断扩大,养老保险基金运营需科学、规范,并要强化地方政府在养老保险管理中的主体责任。     

Pension reform, employment by age, and long-run growth

We study the effects of pension reform on hours worked by three active generations, education of the young, the retirement decision of older workers, and aggregate growth in a four-period OLG model. The model explains important facts well for many OECD countries. Our simulation results prefer an intelligent pay-as-you-go system above a fully funded private system. Positive effects on employment and growth are the strongest when the pay-as-you-go system includes a tight link between individual labor income and the pension, and when it attaches a high weight to labor income earned as an older worker to compute the pension assessment base.     

“社会养老”是否淡化了“子女责任”观念？--来自中国农村居民的经验证据

参保行为与养老观念存在双向因果关系,倾向于子女养老的居民参加养老保险的概率较低,而参加养老保险也改变着居民的养老观念。通过联立方程模型以及工具变量控制内生性后,得出了养老保险淡化“子女养老”观念的净效应,进而指出养老保险制度不仅挤出了子女对老人的经济支持,同时也弱化了人们的家庭养老观念。国家大力推行的养老保障体系在行为与观念两个层面上挤出了家庭养老,以国家制度化养老保障体系为主体的社会养老模式对家庭养老模式具有替代性。在养老模式的变迁中要综合考虑各主体的功能与责任,联合各界力量共同承担社会养老责任。     

Effects of demographic and retirement-age policies on future pension deficits, with an application to China

A simple method is proposed for projecting future deficits in a defined benefit or defined contribution pension scheme. The annual pension deficit rate is expressed in terms of the elderly dependency ratio (determined by demographic factors), the average retirement age, and a few parameters describing the scheme. An illustrative application to China demonstrates that if the average age at retirement gradually increases from the current low level to age 65 for both men and women in 2050, the annual pension deficit rate would be greatly reduced or even eliminated under various plausible demographic regimes over this period. With all else equal, a transition to a two-child policy (assuming this would raise fertility) would also lower the deficit rate in comparison to keeping the current fertility policy unchanged, although the effect would be seen only after 2030. The effect of potentially faster mortality decline in raising future deficits is appreciable and starts earlier than the effects of fertility change. The proposed method may also be used to gauge the magnitudes and timing of impacts on future pension deficits of alternative assumptions regarding levels and age/sex composition of international migration.     

Institutional rules, labour demand and retirement through disability programme participation

We use matched employer–employee data from Finland to model transitions out of work into sick leave and disability retirement. To identify the role of institutional factors, we exploit reforms that changed medical requirements for disability pension eligibility and experience-rated employer contributions. We find that transitions to sick leave and disability pension benefits are relatively rare in growing establishments, but rather common in establishments with a high degree of excess worker turnover. We also show that transitions to disability retirement depend on the stringency of medical screening and the degree of experience rating applied to the employer.     

Commoditization of Lifestyle Migration: Japanese Retirees in Malaysia

Abstract

This paper aims to explore the relationship between mobilities created from individual choices and the market factors driving lifestyle migration. The transnational mobility of elderly Japanese throughout Asia is considered one of the emerging cases of international retirement migration in Asia, an overall relatively new phenomenon. Through examining the sociocultural aspects of lifestyle migration in the case of Japanese international retirement migration to Malaysia, this paper argues that lifestyle migration, as a form of consumption, results in self-realization that has a culturally specific meaning for Japanese retirees. By linking tourism and migration, this paper proposes that the mobilities market serves as a mediator of transnational human mobilities and argues that the commoditization of Japanese international retirement migration reflects on both the socioeconomic and sociocultural aspects of Japan as an aging society. Ethnographic data, alongside media discourse analysis, demonstrates how the expectation of self-realization is mediated through the promotion of Malaysia as a destination country of Japanese international retirement migration and their culturally specific understandings of retirement lifestyle.     

Population aging and legal retirement age

This paper analyzes the effects of population aging on the preferred legal retirement age. What is revealed is the crucial role that the indirect ‘macro’ effects resulting from a change in the legal retirement age play in the optimal decision. Two social security systems are studied. Under a defined contribution scheme, aging lowers the preferred legal retirement age. However, under a defined pension scheme, the retirement age is delayed. This result shows the relevance of correctly choosing the parameter affected by the dependency ratio in the design of the social security programme.

Retirement against the demographic trend: More older people living longer, working less, and saving less?

The American population is aging rapidly and individuals are living longer. Yet Americans are saving less and older workers are leaving the labor force at younger and younger ages. The accelerated drop in labor force participation corresponds roughly to the introduction of Social Security and the adaption of employer-provided pension plans. I have illustrated that Social Security and employer-provided pension plans provide substantial incentive to leave the labor force early. The quantitative effect of this inducement is illustrated by simulating the effects of changes in pension plan and Social Security provisions on the retirement decisions of employees in a large firm, who are covered by a typical defined benefit pension plan. Scheduled Social Security changes would have little effect on the retirement decisions of employees with a typical defined benefit pension plan like the one considered here. But if the pension plan provisions were changed to correspond to the Social Security changes, the effect would be very large. And, although not contemplated by current legislation, it is clear that an increase in the Social Security early retirement age would have a substantial effect on the early retirement rates of the large number of employees not covered by a pension plan.     

Population Aging and the Rising Cost of Public Pensions

Rapid population aging is raising concerns about the sustainability of public pension systems in high‐income countries. The first part of this study identifies the four factors that determine trends in public pension expenditures: population aging, pension benefit levels, the mean age at retirement, and the labor force participation rate. The second part presents projections to 2050 of the impact of demographic trends on public pension expenditures in the absence of changes in pension benefits, labor force participation, and age at retirement. These projections demonstrate that current trends are unsustainable, because without reforms population aging will produce an unprecedented and harmful accumulation of public debt. A number of projection variants assess the potential impact of policy options aimed at improving the sustainability of public pension systems. Although the conventional responses are considered, particular attention is given to the demographic options of encouraging higher fertility and permitting more immigration. This analysis is illustrated with data from the seven largest OECD countries.     

The Retirement Life Course in America at the Dawn of the Twenty-First Century

As the baby boom cohorts expand the number of U.S. retirees, population estimates of the employment, withdrawal and reentry behaviors of older Americans’ remain scarce. How long do people work? How frequently is retirement reversed? How many years are people retired? What is the modal age of retirement? And, how do the patterns for women compare to those for men? Using the 1992–2004 Health and Retirement Study, we estimate multistate working life tables to update information on the age-graded regularities of the retirement life course of men and women in the United States. We find that at age 50 men can expect to spend half of their remaining lives working for pay, while women can expect to spend just one-third. Half of all men and women have left the labor force by ages 63 and 61, respectively. Although the majority of retirement exits are final, variation in the nature and duration of the retirement process is substantial, as about a third of men’s and women’s exits are reversed. By quantifying these patterns for men and women, we provide a sound empirical basis for evaluating policy designed to address the financial pressures population aging places on public and private pension systems.