双边道德风险下业务流程模块化度对业务流程外包激励契约的影响研究

利用委托-代理模型研究了双边道德风险下流程模块化度对业务流程外包激励契约设计的影响。结果表明,当客户和服务商都是风险中性时,提高流程模块化度将会使服务商更努力工作,但并不一定能使客户更努力工作。技术水平越高的服务商将会更努力工作。对称信息下,服务商的技术水平对客户的努力水平没有影响;不对称信息下,服务商的技术水平越高,客户的努力水平越低。不对称信息下,流程模块化度越高,收益共享系数越高。当服务商具有足够高的技术优势或成本优势时,流程模块化度越高,客户的期望收益将不会降低。与技术水平高、成本低的服务商合作,将会导致高的代理成本。提高流程模块化度不一定能降低代理成本。     

成本信息不对称下的应用服务外包菜单式合约

客户企业实施应用服务外包时,面临着成本信息不对称所带来的风险。针对该问题,以客户企业期望收入最大化为目标,在应用服务提供商(Application Service Provider, ASP)所拥有的成本效率参数及努力水平不可观测下研究客户企业如何通过服务外包菜单式合约的设计激励ASP付出最优的努力水平,并显示出真实的成本信息。研究表明,收益共享系数是成本效率参数、风险规避度、产出方差的减函数;客户企业向ASP支付的期望服务报酬除了补偿保留效用与服务生产成本还将额外支付风险成本、信息租金;风险成本随风险规避度、产出方差递增,随成本效率参数递减;信息租金随风险规避度、产出方差、成本效率参数递减。     

不对称信息下信息技术服务外包合同设计

本文针对客户企业向IT供应商外包信息技术服务这一背景,考虑IT供应商不仅具有开发信息系统能力的私有信息,且其开发过程中的努力行为对于客户企业不可见的情况,研究了客户企业信息技术服务外包合同设计问题。研究发现,不对称信息下,客户企业可以通过设计最优合同菜单来甄别不同能力的IT供应商,但是此时客户企业需要向高能力IT供应商支付信息租金。同时,客户企业可以通过设计最优合同有效规制高能力IT供应商系统开发过程中的努力行为,但是相比于信息对称的情况,不对称信息下低能力IT供应商会存在努力不足的现象。低能力IT供应商努力不足的现象会降低社会福利和客户企业的期望利润;客户企业向高能力IT供应商支付信息租金的行为也会减少客户企业的期望利润。增加系统调试阶段的调试时间或者选择信息系统故障检出率高的IT供应商,可以降低高能力IT供应商的信息租金,并缓解低能力IT供应商努力不足的现象,进而减少信息不对称给客户企业带来的利润损失。     

基于非对称信息理论的第三方物流合作博弈分析

假定在物流外包过程中,第三方物流服务提供商的运作能力与努力水平双因素均为非对称信息,在此基础上,建立第三方物流服务需求方(委托人)与提供商(代理人)之间的合作博弈模型;接着利用最大值原理求解得出博弈双方的合作策略;最后,在代理人为风险中性的假设下,进一步分析了物流外包方的风险成本、激励成本和总代理成本。     

不对称信息下创新产品研发外包的甄别契约设计

在创新产品研发过程中,许多企业会将部分研发模块外包,而接包方能力水平和成本信息的不对称,会给发包方带来收益风险。对此采用委托代理理论中的信息甄别模型,将研发的接包方分为高成本系数和低成本系数两类,由创新企业设计包含固定支付和收益共享系数两个参数的外包甄别契约,来推断其真实能力。通过考虑创新研发成功的概率因素和技术成果转化后的市场收益分成,以激励接包方做出最优的努力。研究结果表明：高成本系数接包方的收益共享系数将被向下扭曲,低成本系数接包方既获得了保留效用,还会得到额外的信息租金;契约中两类参数的取值受到不同类型接包方所占比例的影响,随着市场中高成本系数企业数量的增加,发包方的期望收益降低。     

互补性研发努力下垂直合作新产品开发中的收益共享契约设计

研发努力表现为互补还是替代关系,对于合作新产品开发中激励契约的设计有重要影响.在研发努力存在互补关系的情形下,探讨垂直合作新产品开发中的收益共享机制.研究表明,新产品开发的组织安排取决于由研发努力弹性和成本参数所确定的研发投入产出效率,当双方的研发投入产出效率相差悬殊时,新产品开发应由效率更高的一方独自承担;当双方各自承担部分开发任务时,收益共享契约可以有效调节合作者的研发努力水平;最优收益共享率介于使合作者分别达到各自最大努力水平的不同收益共享率之间,且取决于双方的研发努力弹性,而与双方的研发成本参数、新产品市场风险等因素无直接关系;研发努力弹性较高的一方应分享到更多收益,而当双方研发努力弹性相同时,应均分收益.     

基于双边道德风险的研发外包激励机制设计

研究了如何利用利益分配方式作为激励机制,促使研发外包合作双方如实告知其私人信息并付出应有努力或投入足够研发资源.证明了现有的固定支付、产出分享和混合支付等三种传统利润分配方式下,研发外包合作双方均存在告知虚假私人信息并降低努力程度的道德风险.在此基础上设计出一种产出分享加固定转移支付的新混合分配方式,并给出了双方的分配比例和转移支付量,最后证明了该分配方式可以规避研发外包中的双边道德风险,激励合作双方如实告知其私人信息并付出应有努力程度.     

考虑公平偏好的双重信息不对称下PPP项目激励机制研究

PPP项目中社会资本的能力禀赋和努力水平为其私有信息,如何激励社会资本显示真实的能力禀赋和努力水平一直是PPP项目治理研究的重要议题。在传统的PPP项目激励治理研究中,往往假设社会资本只具有单一私有信息,由此形成单一的逆向选择或道德风险问题。但在PPP激励治理现实中,社会资本经常同时拥有关于能力禀赋和努力水平双重私有信息,从而导致关于类型不对称信息的逆向选择和关于行为不对称信息的道德风险问题共存。本文研究了PPP项目中逆向选择和道德风险共存的激励机制设计问题。构建了针对社会资本同时拥有能力禀赋和努力水平两种私有信息的激励机制设计模型。该模型以项目产出绩效为激励途径,通过设计最优契约使得社会资本谎报信息类型的收益水平不高于其真实汇报类型的收益,从而激励社会资本显示真实能力禀赋的同时付出最优努力水平,保证项目效率。同时考虑了社会资本的公平偏好,探讨了公平偏好对这种双重不对称信息激励机制设计的影响。研究表明：通过设计合理的PPP项目激励机制能够实现对社会资本的信息甄别和激励其付出最优努力的双重目的,政府对社会资本的激励强度同社会资本市场分布有关,且随着社会资本嫉妒偏好强度的提高和被指责偏好强度的减弱而增大。本文的研究可以为解决现实中PPP项目的激励机制设计问题提供理论依据和决策参考。     

需求预测信息共享对供应商入侵策略的影响

考虑由一个供应商和一个风险规避的零售商组成的二级供应链． 在零售商拥有私有需求信息和供应商具有开通直销渠道能力情形下,得到了不同策略下供应链成员的最优决策及期望效用,探讨了需求预测精确度及风险规避程度的影响,分析了信息(不) 共享下供应商入侵对供应链成员效用的影响,进一步得到了零售商和供应商之间的均衡策略及其条件． 研究发现: 预测精确度的提升(或零售商风险规避程度的降低) 能够增加供应链成员的效用; 供应商入侵会产生“输 － 赢”、“输 － 输”、“赢 － 输”、“赢 － 赢”四种可能结果; 零售商的最优信息共享策略与基本需求、自身销售优势以及风险规避程度密切相关; 当且仅当基本需求不太高且零售商具有较强的销售成本优势时,零售商才会主动共享信息以诱使供应商开通直销渠道,并且风险规避程度越高,零售商越有可能共享需求信息; 当入侵成本很高时,供应商仍有可能战略性地开通直销渠道．最后,数值分析表明,只有当零售商的销售成本不是太高时,他才有可能共享需求信息．     

基于分期付款的服务供应商合作意愿甄别研究

服务外包中信息不对称问题阻碍了服务外包的健康快速发展。服务需求商选择合适的服务供应商,并对服务供应商专用性人力资本进行有效的监督与激励是服务外包成功的先决条件。本文将分期付款方式引入到服务外包合同设计中,构建了信息不对称情况下服务供应商真实合作意愿的甄别模型,设计了有效分离不同类型服务供应商的报酬机制,并用实际案例验证了本模型的科学性与适用性,为服务需求商选择服务供应商提供了参考。     

Criteria for selecting a production control philosophy

Logistic objectives constitute a compromise between having short leadtimes and a low volume of work in progress on the one hand and a high resource loading and due date obligation on the other. Miscellaneous production planning approaches offered today provide different combinations of logistic objectives for satisfying a manufacturing strategy. To combine the strength of the various approaches into a unified system, a new approach based on a dynamic and distributed production planning methodology is proposed. To customize the approach, various analyses and specifications have to be made and for that reason some important characteristics and criteria for analysing production control philosophies will be given.     

The social construction of the meaning of acute stressors: a qualitative study of the personal accounts of police officers using a stress counselling service

The police profession is one in which acute stressors are encountered more frequently than in other occupations. Using the personal accounts of 35 police officers attending an in-house stress counselling clinic, the aim of the present study was to provide a qualitative examination of how the institutional context of policing influenced the ways in which acute stressors signified to individual police officers experiencing felt distress. Using the framework of Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy as an analytical tool, it is argued that beliefs contributing to the experience of felt distress are related to the way in which policing as both an identity and an activity is constructed through the police organizational culture. Not only do these constructions influence the ways in which officers perceive themselves and their environments, but they also operate at the collective level to 'normalize' some emotional responses and to 'pathologize' others which, it is argued, could impact upon the outcomes of interventions such as stress counselling.     

The moderating role of social support in Karasek's job strain model

This paper examines whether social support is a boundary-determining criterion in the job strain model of Karasek (1979). The particular focus is the extent to which different sources of social support, work overload and task control influence job satisfaction, depersonalization and supervisor assessments of work performance. Hypotheses are tested using prospective survey data from 80 clerical staff in a university setting. Results revealed 3-way interactions among levels of support (supervisor, co-worker, non-work), perceived task control and work overload on levels of work performance and employee adjustment (self-report). After controlling for levels of negative affect in all analyses, there was evidence that high levels of supervisor support mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of job satisfaction and reduced reported levels of depersonalization. Moreover, high levels of non-work support and co-worker support also mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of work performance. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of social support networks both at, and beyond, the work context.     

Job insecurity, coping resources and personality dispositions in occupational strain

This paper presents research on the relationships between the work-related stressor of perceived job insecurity and various indicators of occupational strain, taking into account employees' personality dispositions (trait negative and positive affectivity) and coping resources. Respondents were 222 Australian public servants surveyed during organizational restructuring that involved downsizing and threat to job certainty. The research was formulated within an adaptation of Osipow, Doty, and Spokane's (1985) framework of stress-strain-coping that included the possible direct as well as moderating effects of personality dispositions in reporting occupational strain (Parkes, 1990). Findings from hierarchical regression analyses indicate consistent significant independent effects of personality dispositions, coping resources and perceived job insecurity on various indicators of strain. There was also support for the moderating roles of negative affectivity and self-care in the relation between perceived job insecurity and physical strain. Implications for the role of dispositional factors, especially negative affectivity, and the utility of various coping resources in accounting for occupational strain in times of threatened job security are discussed.     

Introduction to Special Section on Sensitivity Analysis and Summary of NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis

This guest editorial is a summary of the NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis held June 11–12, 2001 at North Carolina State University and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Office of Risk Assessment and Cost Benefit Analysis. The objective of the workshop was to learn across disciplines in identifying, evaluating, and recommending sensitivity analysis methods and practices for application to food‐safety process risk models. The workshop included presentations regarding the Hazard Assessment and Critical Control Points (HACCP) framework used in food‐safety risk assessment, a survey of sensitivity analysis methods, invited white papers on sensitivity analysis, and invited case studies regarding risk assessment of microbial pathogens in food. Based on the sharing of interdisciplinary information represented by the presentations, the workshop participants, divided into breakout sessions, responded to three trigger questions: What are the key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods applied to food‐safety risk assessment? What sensitivity analysis methods are most promising for application to food safety and risk assessment? and What are the key needs for implementation and demonstration of such methods? The workshop produced agreement regarding key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods and the need to use two or more methods to try to obtain robust insights. Recommendations were made regarding a guideline document to assist practitioners in selecting, applying, interpreting, and reporting the results of sensitivity analysis.     

Job stress, job strain, and psychological withdrawal among Dutch university staff: towards a dualprocess model for the effects of occupational stress

This study examined the antecedents of job strain (emotional exhaustion, health complaints) and withdrawal behaviour (e.g. lowered organizational commitment) among a cross-sectional sample of 131 academic staff members of the law department of a large Dutch university. Conservation of resources theory (Hobfoll, 1989) provided the theoretical background for this study. Strains and withdrawal behaviours were expected to be most prominent among those who reported having few resources and/or who reported high job demands. Structural equation modelling revealed that this was indeed the case. As predicted, differential patterns of effects emerged for job demands and job resources. Analysis of the effects of four job-specific stressors revealed that especially the structural aspects of a staff member's teaching task (e.g. the number of students in their classes) contributed strongly to perceived job demands. Theoretical and practical implications of the study are discussed.     

Distinguishing traumatic, vicarious and routine operational stressor exposure and attendant adverse consequences in a sample of police officers

Problems in studying occupational stress within the police service are identified and the paucity of work on operational duties as potential stressors are discussed. The present study reports the results of a factor analysis of operational stressors (N = 601 serving British police officers) that revealed three factors: exposure to death and disaster; violence and injury; sexual crime. These were demonstrated to be reliable scales and were included in logistic regression models together with a range of demographic and psychological variables. Models were applied to men and women separately, which showed there to be different predictors of the likelihood of suffering distress (measured by the General Health Questionnaire, GHQ) in terms of the officer's gender and operational role. Overall the model for women officers was better at predicting psychological distress than that for men. These findings are related to aspects of the police occupational culture. Further discussion is offered that conceptualizes police operational stressors as traumatic, routine and vicarious. Finally, some implications are drawn for the provision of stress intervention in the light of this differentiation.     

Dermal Uptake of 18 Dilute Aqueous Chemicals: In Vivo Disappearance‐Method Measures Greatly Exceed In Vitro‐Based Predictions

Average rates of total dermal uptake (K_up) from short‐term (e.g., bathing) contact with dilute aqueous organic chemicals (DAOCs) are typically estimated from steady‐state in vitro diffusion‐cell measures of chemical permeability (K_p) through skin into receptor solution. Widely used (“PCR‐vitro”) methods estimate K_up by applying diffusion theory to increase K_p predictions made by a physico‐chemical regression (PCR) model that was fit to a large set of K_p measures. Here, K_up predictions for 18 DAOCs made by three PCR‐vitro models (EPA, NIOSH, and MH) were compared to previous in vivo measures obtained by methods unlikely to underestimate K_up. A new PCR model fit to all 18 measures is accurate to within approximately threefold (r = 0.91, p < 10^?5), but the PCR‐vitro predictions (r > 0.63) all tend to underestimate the K_up measures by mean factors (UF, and p value for testing UF = 1) of 10 (EPA, p < 10^?6), 11 (NIOSH, p < 10^?8), and 6.2 (MH, p = 0.018). For all three PCR‐vitro models, log(UF) correlates negatively with molecular weight (r² = 0.31 to 0.84, p = 0.017 to < 10^?6) but not with log(vapor pressure) as an additional predictor (p > 0.05), so vapor pressure appears not to explain the significant in vivo/PCR‐vitro discrepancy. Until this discrepancy is explained, careful in vivo measures of K_up should be obtained for more chemicals, the expanded in vivo database should be compared to in vitro‐based predictions, and in vivo data should be considered in assessing aqueous dermal exposure and its uncertainty.     

Systems Resilience for Multihazard Environments: Definition,Metrics, and Valuation for Decision Making

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the United States amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this article, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision‐making tools for multihazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision‐making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. The article provides methods for valuation and benefit‐cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management.     

UNIX系统性能监控简述及shell系统资源统计程序

本文简要阐述了unix系统中(主要以IBM的AIX为例)进行系统性能管理的几种命令行工具,并通过编写shell实例程序,运用其中提到的工具实现系统资源利用率的统计程序,为做好unix系统管理和调优提供参考.