Disentangling Energy Policy from Environmental Policy*

Objectives. I attempt to disentangle energy policy from environmental policy in order to explain the shifting politics surrounding the former. I can then explain why energy policies have historically provided distributive benefits but also the implications of the fact that energy proposals have in recent years become more regulatory in nature. Methods. I use a range of methods. These include qualitative accounts of the evolution of energy policy, graphic depictions of congressional activity, spending, and partisanship, and multivariate analyses of oversight activities. Results. I find that policymakers have historically treated energy issues as distributive policy, resulting in an emphasis on spending and oversight but not on substantial legislation. Over the last three decades, as policymakers push energy proposals that are more regulatory in nature, energy politics have become more divisive and partisan. Conclusion. Ultimately, I conclude that the enactment of strong energy policies will necessarily involve conditions that have been conducive to passage of other strong regulatory policies.     

Winning and Competitiveness as Determinants of Political Support*

Objectives. This study examines the impact of competitiveness, winning, and ideological congruence on evaluations of democratic principles, institutions, and performance. We posit that winning matters most. Individuals will hold favorable views toward democracy when it produces the outcomes they desire, independent of other contextual factors associated with elections. Methods. We use cross‐sectional multiple regression models to analyze survey data from Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Results. We find that the psychological effect of being an election winner at the national level greatly boosts evaluations of democracy, as measured with a host of different indicators, while competitiveness and congruence do not systematically affect these evaluations. Conclusions. This study sheds light on what factors boost regime support among the populace by sorting out the relative impact of being in a competitive district, winning (at the local and national level), and having a representative with a similar ideological outlook.     

Economic Determinants of Voting in an Era of Union Decline*

Objective. The objective of this article is to test competing hypotheses regarding union vote effects by economic sector. Overlooked in existing research on political participation and the labor movement is de‐unionization's sectoral dimension: declining union rolls is a private‐sector phenomenon. The sectoral dimension of union decline carries important political consequences if the influence of unions on voter turnout varies by sector. Method. Using Current Population Survey (CPS) November Voting and Registration Supplements for all national elections between 1984 and 2006, I estimate union vote effects for public‐ and private‐sector employees. Results. The results of the analyses reveal that while union members continue to vote at higher rates than otherwise similar nonmembers, the union effect is nearly three times as large for private‐sector members: private‐sector unionists have a predicted probability of voting 6.7 points higher than nonmembers, while public‐sector members have a predicted probability of voting only 2.4 points higher than nonmembers. Conclusions. Given the small fraction of private‐sector workers now in labor unions, recent fluctuations in the unionization rate have little aggregate affect on turnout. Given that private‐sector union members tend to be less educated and earn less than their public‐sector counterparts, the near disappearance of private‐sector unions from the economic landscape removes an important institutional buffer against political inequality in the United States.     

Electoral Support for Community Growth Management Policy*

Objectives. This study seeks to explain the variation in voter support for growth management policy. Interest group theory of local politics and property rights is used as a theoretical framework to explore how competing pro‐growth and anti‐growth interests influence the level of electoral support at the ballot box. Methods. Survey data collected from local planning officials in Massachusetts are analyzed using a two‐stage Heckman selection model. Results. The results indicate that development competition has a negative effect and controversy over development a positive effect on the probability of a community placing growth management policy on the local ballot. The analysis further indicates that environmental interests and suburban communities have a positive influence on the percentage of votes cast in favor of conservation‐oriented growth management policy. Neighborhood‐based interests, on the other hand, have a negative influence on voter support. Conclusions. The findings suggest that compared to the normal legislative process, ballot‐box voting allows anti‐growth and localized interests the opportunity to craft proposals and then mobilize support for policy changes.     

Policy Climates and Reductions in Automobile Use*

Objectives. This study examines how national environmental policy influences individual car‐driving behavior in the European Union. Methods. Using the International Social Survey: Environment II in conjunction with the 2001 and 2002 Environmental Sustainability Indices, we analyze the relationship between macro‐level policy indicators and the reported reduction of individual car driving for environmental reasons, controlling for meso‐ and micro‐level factors. Results. Our results show that individuals report a greater likelihood of driving less for environmental reasons when they live in nations that adopt strong pro‐environmental policies, even when such policies are not directly related to car use. Conclusions. Our finding that a national policy climate focused on environmental sustainability is associated with pro‐environmental behaviors among individuals in that nation encourages us to believe that greater international cooperation on environmental issues (such as the Kyoto Protocol) and increased strength of domestic environmental policies will positively change individual behavior.     

Predicting the Comparative Strengths of National Football Teams*

Objectives. The aim of this study was to identify the chief social and economic factors predicting the strength of national Association Football (soccer) teams. Methods. A theoretical model was developed to establish an appropriate functional form for the relationship between team strength and the number of individuals available for selection. OLS regression was used to predict the performance ratings of 201 national teams. Results. The results showed that the strength of a nation's football team depends on the number of men who regularly play football, the length of its football tradition, the wealth of its population, the percentage of expatriate players in the national team, and climatic conditions. These factors explain 70 percent of the variance in international team ratings. Conclusions. Many of the factors that determine team strength are structural and cannot be manipulated by policymakers. Nations could, however, strengthen their teams by encouraging wider participation in the sport. Poorer nations could develop stronger teams by encouraging their best players to play professional club football abroad, although this might have negative consequences for domestic football.     

By What Authority? Ethics and Policy Analysis*

By what authority do social policy analysts evaluate institutions and propose reforms? They have often relied on past traditions of political and moral philosophy, briefly reviewed here, to answer that question. These sources of authority are now failing, and many analysts are moving reluctantly towards a relativist or historicist standpoint which they nevertheless find unattractive. However, by studying institutions, practices and the traditions developed within them, it is possible to formulate and defend a socially embedded morality which will be helpful to policy analysts. Principles derived from it are contestable and liable to change as social circumstances change. But this is a strength, not a weakness, of the approach. Aesthetic reasoning offers helpful paradigms for policy analysis. Social policies and programmes may be derived from moral and political values, but they also help to change them. Indeed, that may be their most important achievement. The paper concludes with questions which teachers and researchers may wish to explore with the help of the concepts set forth here.     

在进一步扩大开放中维护好国家经济安全

经济安全是一个伴随改革开放的"全过程"问题。它是我国国家安全战略和新安全观的核心部分,也是社会主义市场经济体系运行的必要条件。要正视我国经济安全问题的结构性和复杂性,以科学发展观为指导,在深化改革扩大开放中,切实维护好国家经济安全。     

Higher Education Policy,Enrollment, and Income Inequality*

Objective. The objective of this article is to examine whether public expenditure on higher education has an effect on income inequality by increasing enrollment. Methods. Combining data from the World Bank Development Indicators with data from the World Income Inequality Database version 2, we study the relation between government education expenditure and enrollment rates, as well as the relation between government education expenditure and the change in income inequality during the 1980s and the 1990s. Results. We find that public expenditure on higher education has no positive effect on enrollment. Increased enrollment is mainly explained by higher GDP per capita. Using carefully selected Gini coefficients to ensure comparability over time, we do not find a robust relation between higher education expenditure and lower income inequality, contrary to some previous studies. Conclusions. Government expenditure on higher education has very limited effects on enrollment and inequality. This finding, however, does not imply that there are no social benefits from such subsidies. For example, in countries where high marginal tax rates decrease the economic returns to education, governments may wish to compensate for this through subsidies.     

Measuring State TANF Policy Variations and Change After Reform*

Objectives. Our objectives are to describe the policies adopted after PRWORA, which vary across states, to test for common underlying policy concepts, demonstrating how these policies are interrelated, and to examine whether policy stringency diffused to neighboring states results in greater policy stringency across all states over time. We convert textual TANF welfare guidelines into empirically derived policy dimensions and use the derived quantitative scores to describe variation and change in welfare policy dimensions across status during the 1996–2003 post‐welfare‐reform period. Methods. Utilizing the Urban Institute's Welfare Rules Database, we apply a factor analytic methodology to 78 unique state policy guidelines that were coded on a lenient‐to‐stringent continuum. Regression analyses, employing spatial contiguity weighting, are used to describe policy diffusion. Results. The results identified 15 underlying first‐order post‐welfare‐reform policy dimensions, which for scientific parsimony were further reduced to three second‐order underlying dimensions representing rules governing eligibility: eligibility requirements for groups, behavioral responsibilities for maintaining eligibility, and eligibility time limits and exemptions. Analysis of the quantitative scores showed that by 2003 states had become more lenient regarding eligibility criteria for groups but decidedly more stringent regarding behavioral guidelines for maintaining eligibility and eligibility time limits and exemptions. Spatial clustering is not found globally but is significant for some states at the local level. Spatial diffusion is apparent only for behavioral rules. Conclusions. Our results suggest that TANF policy variations across states go beyond payment levels to include salient eligibility rules. The patterns of variability in change scores across states do not support a pervasive “race to the bottom” conclusion.     

Attribution Style and Public Policy Attitudes Toward Gay Rights*

Objective. This study examines the influence of beliefs about the cause of homo‐sexuality on public policy attitudes concerning gay rights. Methods. Using data from the 1995 Oklahoma City Survey, we examine how beliefs about homosexuality as either a lifestyle choice or biological predisposition affect levels of support for gay rights. Results. Consistent with current debates over gay rights, our study reveals a strong positive association between biological attributions of homosexuality and support for gay rights. Opposition to gay rights is most pronounced among political conservatives, fundamentalist Protestants, persons with little or no favorable contact with gays, individuals who embrace negative stereotypes about gays, and persons with high scores on an index of homophobia. Conclusions. Etiological beliefs about homosexuality have a strong influence on public policy attitudes toward gay rights.