Testing for Serial Correlation: Generalized Andrews–Ploberger Tests

This paper considers testing the null hypothesis that a times series is uncorrelated when the time series is uncorrelated but statistically dependent. This case is of interest in economic and finance applications. The GARCH(1, 1) model is a leading example of a model that generates serially uncorrelated but statistically dependent data. The tests of serial correlation introduced by Andrews and Ploberger (1996, hereafter AP) are generalized for the purpose of testing the null. The rationale for generalizing the AP tests is that they have attractive properties for cases for which they were originally designed: they are consistent against all nonwhite-noise alternatives and have good all-round power against nonseasonal alternatives compared to several widely used tests in the literature. These properties are inherited by the generalized AP tests.     

Tables for the Lilliefors and Modified Cramer–von Mises Tests of Normality

We present new tabulations of the Lilliefors distribution and the modified Cramer–von Mises distribution, which are used to test for normality when the population mean and variance are unknown. Some practical remarks and an example are given.     

Generalized Begun–Reid estimators for multiple hazard rates

A class of invariant estimators with respect to the selection of a base population is developed for estimating the hazard rates in multiple populations. The class generalizes the estimators of Begun and Reid (J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 78 (1983) 337) and includes the estimator of Mantel and Haenszel (J. Natl. Canser Inst. 22 (1959) 719) as a special case. The estimators have explicit forms and, it is shown that their asymptotic covariance matrices are less than those of the Begun–Reid estimators when the number of populations is greater than two. A Monte-Carlo simulation indicates that the estimators are slightly more efficient than the Cox partial likelihood estimator (Biometrika 62 (2) (1975) 269) for small and medium sample sizes. An example is presented for the illustration of the estimators.     

Acceptance Sampling Plans from Truncated Life Tests Based on the Generalized Birnbaum–Saunders Distribution

In this article, we develop acceptance sampling plans when the life test is truncated at a pre-fixed time. The minimum sample size necessary to ensure the specified median life is obtained by assuming that the lifetimes of the test units follow a generalized Birnbaum–Saunders distribution. The operating characteristic values of the sampling plans as well as producer's risk are presented. Two examples are also given to illustrate the procedure developed here, with one of them being based on a real data from software reliability.     

Generalized Poisson–Lindley linear model for count data

The purpose of this paper is to develop a new linear regression model for count data, namely generalized-Poisson Lindley (GPL) linear model. The GPL linear model is performed by applying generalized linear model to GPL distribution. The model parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation. We utilize the GPL linear model to fit two real data sets and compare it with the Poisson, negative binomial (NB) and Poisson-weighted exponential (P-WE) models for count data. It is found that the GPL linear model can fit over-dispersed count data, and it shows the highest log-likelihood, the smallest AIC and BIC values. As a consequence, the linear regression model from the GPL distribution is a valuable alternative model to the Poisson, NB, and P-WE models.     

Defective Galton–Watson processes

The Galton–Watson process is a Markov chain modeling the population size of independently reproducing particles giving birth to k offspring with probability p_k, k ? 0. In this paper, we consider defective Galton–Watson processes having defective reproduction laws, so that ∑_{k ? 0}p_k = 1 ? ? for some ? ∈ (0, 1). In this setting, each particle may send the process to a graveyard state Δ with probability ?. Such a Markov chain, having an enhanced state space {0, 1, …}∪{Δ}, gets eventually absorbed either at 0 or at Δ. Assuming that the process has avoided absorption until the observation time t, we are interested in its trajectories as t → ∞ and ? → 0.     

Small-Sample Corrections for Score Tests in Birnbaum–Saunders Regressions

In this article, we deal with the issue of performing accurate small-sample inference in the Birnbaum–Saunders regression model, which can be useful for modeling lifetime or reliability data. We derive a Bartlett-type correction for the score test and numerically compare the corrected test with the usual score test and some other competitors.     

Hypothesis Tests for Neyman's Bias in Case–Control Studies

Survival bias is a long recognized problem in case–control studies, and many varieties of bias can come under this umbrella term. We focus on one of them, termed Neyman's bias or ‘prevalence–incidence bias’. It occurs in case–control studies when exposure affects both disease and disease-induced mortality, and we give a formula for the observed, biased odds ratio under such conditions. We compare our result with previous investigations into this phenomenon and consider models under which this bias may or may not be important. Finally, we propose three hypothesis tests to identify when Neyman's bias may be present in case–control studies. We apply these tests to three data sets, one of stroke mortality, another of brain tumors, and the last of atrial fibrillation, and find some evidence of Neyman's bias in the former two cases, but not the last case.     

Simulation Study on Improved Shapiro–Wilk Tests for Normality

The article concerns tests for normality based on the Shapiro–Wilk W statistic. The constants in the test statistic are recalculated as those given in Shapiro and Wilk are incorrect. The empirical significance levels and power of improved tests have been evaluated in simulation study and compared to original ones. The improved tests were also applied to the multivariate case. In this case, we consider two implementations of the W statistic, the first one proposed by Srivastava and Hui and the other by Hanusz and Tarasinska. Empirical size of tests and their power have been compared to the Henze–Zirkler test.     

Properties of generalized Levinson–Durbin–Whittle sequences

For a discrete time, second-order stationary process the Levinson–Durbin recursion is used to determine best fitting one-step-ahead linear autoregressive predictors of successively increasing order, best in the sense of minimizing the mean square error. Whittle [1963. On the fitting of multivariate autoregressions, and the approximate canonical factorization of a spectral density matrix. Biometrika 50, 129–134] generalized the recursion to the case of vector autoregressive processes. The recursion defines what is termed a Levinson–Durbin–Whittle sequence, and a generalized Levinson–Durbin–Whittle sequence is also defined. Generalized Levinson–Durbin–Whittle sequences are shown to satisfy summation formulas which generalize summation formulas satisfied by binomial coefficients. The formulas can be expressed in terms of the partial correlation sequence, and they assume simple forms for time-reversible processes. The results extend comparable formulas obtained in Shaman [2007. Generalized Levinson–Durbin sequences, binomial coefficients and autoregressive estimation. Working paper] for univariate processes.     

Inference and Optimal Design Based on Step—Partially Accelerated Life Tests for the Generalized Pareto Distribution under Progressive Type-I Censoring

Various types of failure, censored and accelerated life tests, are commonly employed for life testing in some manufacturing industries and products that are highly reliable. In this article, we consider the tampered failure rate model as one of such types that relate the distribution under use condition to the distribution under accelerated condition. It is assumed that the lifetimes of products under use condition have generalized Pareto distribution as a lifetime model. Some estimation methods such as graphical, moments, probability weighted moments, and maximum likelihood estimation methods for the parameters are discussed based on progressively type-I censored data. The determination of optimal stress change time is discussed under two different criteria of optimality. Finally, a Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to examine the performance of the estimation methods and the optimality criteria.     

Tests for the variance parameter in the Fay–Herriot model

The Fay–Herriot model is a linear mixed model that plays a relevant role in small area estimation (SAE). Under the SAE set-up, tools for selecting an adequate model are required. Applied statisticians are often interested on deciding if it is worthwhile to use a mixed effect model instead of a simpler fixed-effect model. This problem is not standard because under the null hypothesis the random effect variance is on the boundary of the parameter space. The likelihood ratio test and the residual likelihood ratio test are proposed and their finite sample distributions are derived. Finally, we analyse their behaviour under simulated scenarios and we also apply them to real data.     

Generalized Gauss–Hermite filtering

We consider a generalization of the Gauss–Hermite filter (GHF), where the filter density is represented by a Hermite expansion with leading Gaussian term (GGHF). Thus, the usual GHF is included as a special case. The moment equations for the time update are solved stepwise by Gauss–Hermite integration, and the measurement update is computed by the Bayes formula, again using numerical integration. The performance of the filter is compared numerically with the GHF, the UKF (unscented Kalman filter) and the EKF (extended Kalman filter) and leads to a lower mean squared filter error.     

Generalized Poisson–Lindley Distribution

An extended version of the compound Poisson distribution is obtained by compounding the Poisson distribution with the generalized Lindley distribution. Estimation of the parameters is discussed using the method of moments and maximum likelihood estimators. Examples are given of the fitting of this distribution to data, and the fit is compared with that obtained using other distributions.     

Kolmogorov–Smirnov,Fluctuation, and Z g Tests for Convergence of Markov Chain Monte Carlo Draws

We examine the sizes and powers of three tests of convergence of Markov Chain Monte Carlo draws: the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, fluctuation test, and Geweke's test. We show that the sizes and powers are sensitive to the existence of autocorrelation in the draws. We propose a filtered test that is corrected for autocorrelation. We present a numerical illustration using the Federal funds rate.     

The Generalized Birnbaum–Saunders Distribution and Its Theory,Methodology, and Application

In this paper, we discuss the class of generalized Birnbaum–Saunders distributions, which is a very flexible family suitable for modeling lifetime data as it allows for different degrees of kurtosis and asymmetry and unimodality as well as bimodality. We describe the theoretical developments on this model including properties, transformations and related distributions, lifetime analysis, and shape analysis. We also discuss methods of inference based on uncensored and censored data, diagnostics methods, goodness-of-fit tests, and random number generation algorithms for the generalized Birnbaum–Saunders model. Finally, we present some illustrative examples and show that this distribution fits the data better than the classical Birnbaum–Saunders model.     

Generalized confounded row–column designs

Generalized Confounded Row–Column (GCRC) designs for factorial experiments have been introduced and methods of constructing GCRC designs have been discussed. Fractionally replicated GCRC designs have also been constructed. The designs obtained ensure balancing with respect to estimable effects.     

Survival Estimation with Missing Censoring Times for the Generalized Koziol–Green Model

ABSTRACT

When analyzing time-to-event data, there are various situations in which right censoring times for unfailed units are missing. In that context, by taking a supplementary sample of a convenient percentage of unfailed units, we propose a semi-parametric method for estimating a survival function under the natural extension of the Koziol–Green model to double random censoring. Some large sample properties of this estimator are derived. We prove uniform strong consistency and asymptotic weak convergence to a Gaussian process. A simulation study is also presented in order to analyze the behavior of the proposed estimator.     

Nadaraya–Watson estimator for I.I.D. paths of diffusion processes

This paper deals with a nonparametric Nadaraya–Watson (NW) estimator of the drift function computed from independent continuous observations of a diffusion process. Risk bounds on the estimator and its discrete-time approximation are established. The paper also deals with extensions of the PCO and leave-one-out cross-validation bandwidth selection methods for our NW estimator. Finally, some numerical experiments are provided.     

Non parametric confidence intervals for the extinction probability of a Galton–Watson branching process

It is demonstrated that the confidence intervals (CIs) for the probability of eventual extinction and other parameters of a Galton–Watson branching process based upon the maximum likelihood estimators can often have substantially lower coverage when compared to the desired nominal confidence coefficient, especially in small, more realistic sample sizes. The same conclusion holds for the traditional bootstrap CIs. We propose several adjustments to these CIs, which greatly improves coverage in most cases. We also make a correction in an asymptotic variance formula given in Stigler (1971 Stigler, S.M. (1971). The estimation of the probability of extinction and other parameters associated with branching processes. Biometrika 58(3):499–508.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The focus here is on implementation of the CIs which have good coverage, in a wide variety of cases. We also consider expected CI lengths. Some recommendations are made.