The Bias in Price Elasticity Estimates Under Homothetic Separability: Implications for Analysis of Peak-Load Electricity Pricing

This article demonstrates that the assumption of a homothetically separable utility function places a priori restrictions on the parameters of the demand system. If these restrictions are unwarranted, an open question if they are not explicitly tested, they will lead to biased price elasticity estimates. In particular, we show that the uncompensated own-price elasticities must be smaller than the negative of the expenditure shares; that is, the price elasticity of peak electricity demand must be less than the negative of the share of expenditure devoted to peak electricity. This finding is probably not new to economists familiar with consumer demand analysis. Nevertheless, many recent studies of consumer demand for electricity under time-of-day rates explicitly impose this restriction. The resulting price elasticity estimates are usually quite large in absolute value (.5 to .8); but they are the product of restrictive a priori assumptions as well as information embodied in the sample data. The results of two analyses of time-of-day experiments, where the researchers imposed the untested assumption of homothetic separability, are examined more closely. We find that the reported price elasticities are strongly influenced by that a priori assumption. A Monte Carlo experiment demonstrates that using this model will lead to the reported price elasticities even if the consumption data are perfectly random with respect to price.     

关于中国全要素生产率测度的研究——基于一阶差分对数模型和有效资本存量的再测算

本文对以往我国全要素生产率测度中存在的问题做了较为系统的分析,试图总结一套科学且具有可操作性的测度方法。本文在区分实际资本存量和有效资本存量的基础上,根据我国资本存量估算数据,采用一阶差分对数模型和有关经济计量学方法,估计资本与劳动的产出弹性,避免了可能出现的“伪回归”“序列相关”“多重共线性”和“异方差”等问题,从而保证所测度的产出弹性估计值既符合经济理论分析又能通过经济计量学检验。本文还阐述了全要素生产率与广义技术进步这两个指标 的联系与区别,并通过实证分析揭示了不同时期两项指标产生差异的原因。实证分析结果表明,改革开放以来全要素生产率提高对促进我国经济增长发挥了重要作用。     

Time-of-Day Electricity Consumption Response to Temperature and the Ownership of Air Conditioning Appliances

This article is concerned with the endogeneity of air conditioning appliance ownership in the consumption of electricity by time of day (TOD). Both TOD consumption and air conditioning appliance ownership depend on temperature level and on household responsiveness to temperature variation, as well as on other measured household characteristics. The article presents an appropriate econometric methodology and applies it to obtain estimates and perform tests based on data from Southern California Edison's Residential TOD Pricing Experiment. The authors emphasize the implications for estimated consumption price elasticities.     

Reduced-Form Versus Structural Models of Water Demand Under Nonlinear Prices

Increasing-block prices are common in markets for water, cellular phone service, and retail electricity. This study estimates demand models under block prices and conducts a Monte Carlo experiment to test the small-sample bias of structural and instrumental variables (IV) estimators. We estimate the price and income elasticity of water demand under increasing-block prices using a structural discrete/continuous choice (DCC) model, as well as random effects and IV. Elasticity estimates are sensitive to the modeling framework. The Monte Carlo experiment suggests that IV and DCC models estimate both price and income elasticity with bias, with no clear best choice among estimators.     

The Effects of Price Aggregation Bias in Systems of Demand Equations

This article illustrates the importance of maintaining consistent levels of aggregation between prices and quantities when estimating consumer demand functions. The impact of violating this condition is quantified by using summary performance measures and estimates of demand elasticity biases. Results derived from an application of 1972–1973 Consumer Expenditure Survey data and supported with a quasi-Monte Carlo experiment consistently indicate that the point estimates of demand elasticities are significantly biased. Thus the study indicates the importance of developing and maintaining price indexes disaggregated to the same level as the expenditure data in consumer expenditure and budget surveys.     

A New Approach to Estimating Production Function Parameters: The Elusive Capital–Labor Substitution Elasticity

Parameters of taste and technology are central to a wide variety of economic models and issues. This article proposes a simple method for estimating production function parameters from panel data, with a particular focus on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor. Elasticity estimates have varied widely, and a consensus estimate remains elusive. Our estimation strategy exploits long-run variation and thus avoids several pitfalls, including difficult-to-specify dynamics, transitory time-series variation, and positively sloped supply schedules, that can bias the estimated elasticity. Our results are based on an extensive panel comprising 1860 firms. Our approach generates a precisely estimated elasticity of 0.40. Although existing estimates range widely, we document a remarkable convergence of results from two related approaches applied to a common dataset. The method developed here may prove useful in estimating other structural parameters from panel datasets.     

Imposing and Testing Curvature Conditions on a Box–Cox Cost Function

We present a new method for imposing and testing concavity of cost functions using asymptotic least squares, which can be easily implemented even for nonlinear cost functions. We provide an illustration for a (generalized) Box–Cox cost function with six inputs: capital, labor disaggregated in three skill levels, energy, and intermediate materials. We present a parametric concavity test and compare price elasticities when curvature conditions are imposed versus when they are not. Although concavity is statistically rejected, estimates are not very sensitive to its imposition. We find stronger substitution between the different type of labor than between any other two inputs.     

Elasticity of Factor Substitution in Police Agencies Evidence From Florida

A multiproduct translog cost function is estimated and used to calculate elasticities of factor substitution in the production of police services. The data come from Florida's municipal police departments and are for 1982–1983. It is found that substitution elasticities between any pair of inputs in police production are significantly different from unity. This result is inconsistent with the Cobb–Douglas production function—a functional form that has been extensively employed in empirical studies of police production.     

Generating Market Elasticity Estimates Using Cross-Sectional First-Choice and Second-Choice Data

This article develops a method for using first-choice/second-choice information to estimate the ratio of cross-elasticities to own-elasticities. I then use Bayesian techniques to couple this information with prior knowledge of the elasticities. This leads to elasticity estimates reflecting the decision maker's prior knowledge as well as existing data on customer first-choice/second-choice preferences.     

Energy Use in Institutional Buildings: Estimates From State Energy-Audit Surveys

This article examines the determinants of energy demand for nearly 9,000 institutional buildings in the United States. The data were collected, as part of the federal Institutional Conservation Program, by state energy offices using mail surveys. The article presents energy demand estimates adjusted for differences in state surveys as well as for nonresponse bias, as functions of energy prices, building characteristics, and fuel-type variables for approximations of the installed heating ventilation and air-conditioning equipment. Energy price elasticities are found to vary from ?.28 for schools to ?1.05 for hospitals.     

Censored Quantile Instrumental Variable Estimates of the Price Elasticity of Expenditure on Medical Care

Efforts to control medical care costs depend critically on how individuals respond to prices. I estimate the price elasticity of expenditure on medical care using a censored quantile instrumental variable (CQIV) estimator. CQIV allows estimates to vary across the conditional expenditure distribution, relaxes traditional censored model assumptions, and addresses endogeneity with an instrumental variable. My instrumental variable strategy uses a family member’s injury to induce variation in an individual’s own price. Across the conditional deciles of the expenditure distribution, I find elasticities that vary from ?0.76 to ?1.49, which are an order of magnitude larger than previous estimates. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

粮食主产区农村居民食物消费行为的计量分析

“民以食为天”,食物消费是人类生存和发展首要的物质基础。农村居民的食物消费水平是决定农村居民身体健康的物质基础,是农村居民生活水平的重要标志。研究和掌握食物消费结构特征,有利于农业产业结构调整和制定正确的农业产业政策,从而促进农民增收,实现农业的可持续发展。粮食主产区的粮食产量占全国粮食总产量的60%以上,对中国的粮食供给和安全具有举足轻重的作用,增加主产区农民收入有利于提高农民种粮食积极性,保证中国的粮食供给和粮食安全。为此,借助几乎理想的需求系统模型(Almost Ideal Demand System,简称AIDS),建立联立方程…     

Micro-Level Estimation of Optimal Consumption Choice With Intertemporal Nonseparability in Preferences and Measurement Errors

This article investigates the presence of habit formation in household consumption, using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We develop an econometric model of internal habit formation of the multiplicative specification. The restrictions of the model allow for classical measurement errors in consumption without parametric assumptions on the distribution of measurement errors. We estimate the parameters by nonlinear generalized method of moments and find that habit formation is an important determinant of household food-consumption patterns. Using the parameter estimates, we develop bounds for the expectation of the implied heterogenous intertemporal elasticity of substitution and relative risk aversion that account for measurement errors, and compute confidence intervals for these bounds. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

劳动收入份额的决定与波动机制研究

本文通过数理经济模型的理论分析和计量经济模型的实证分析发现,决定社会产品初次分配中劳动收入份额高低的因素,除了政府的生产税税率之外,主要是劳动者的实际工资水平和生产技术水平,且二者的作用方向完全相反,都取决于要素替代弹性的大小。当资本和劳动的替代弹性小于1时,劳动者的实际工资水平越高,劳动收入份额就越高,劳动者的生产技术水平越高,劳动收入份额就越低;而当资本和劳动的替代弹性大于1时,则劳动者的实际工资水平越高,劳动收入份额就越低;劳动者的生产技术水平越高,劳动收入份额就越高。理论和实证的分析还表明,劳动者货币工资水平和实际工资水平的增长随着经济周期的波动而波动,实际工资水平增长率的波动与经济周期的波动方向相反,导致劳动收入份额也随经济周期反向波动。     

SNA框架下中国省际R&D资本存量的估算

本文立足于R&D资本化核算的最新研究成果,遵循SNA-2008的框架体系和核算要求,在详细探讨当期R&D投资、R&D投资价格指数、R&D资产的服务期限和折旧率、初始R&D资本存量等关键参数设定方法的基础上,利用BEA方法估算得到1998-2015年中国省际R&D资本存量,厘清了省际R&D资本存量的核算思路,可适当补充和完善现有R&D资本化核算的理论和方法。结果显示：从全国层面来看,我国R&D资本存量总体上呈现快速增长趋势,但增速逐渐放缓;从地区层面来看,各省份R&D资本存量基本上呈现增长趋势,地区间差距逐渐扩大而地区内差距逐渐缩小,但有可能存在全域收敛,须进一步利用统计指数或计量方法进行深入探讨。     

Measuring Substitution in Monetary-Asset Demand Systems

The Allen elasticity of substitution (AES) is widely used to study monetary-asset substitution and structural demand stability. Blackorby and Russell showed that the AES is uninformative and that the Morishima elasticity of substitution (MES) is the appropriate measure, a point overlooked in the monetary literature. Use of improper measures can lead to incorrect inferences. This article considers five alternative measures of substitution—the AES, the MES, the Hicksian and Marshallian elasticities of demand, and Mundlak's unencountered, but appealing, constant-cost elasticity of substitution. Selection of the substitution measure appropriate to respective research questions is addressed.     

基于Nerlove模型的中国鸡蛋供给反应实证分析

基于Nerlove模型,利用动态面板GMM方法对鸡蛋供给反应进行了研究。结果表明:中国鸡蛋供给的短期和长期价格均缺乏弹性,养殖户对鸡蛋价格变化反应迟钝;养殖户生产决策存在约1.86年的时滞期,并且疫情对鸡蛋产量具有显著的负作用;规模化养殖相对于非规模化养殖,短期和长期价格供给弹性都要大的多,并且加大生产投入能带来更多的产量增长,但是规模化养殖和非规模化养殖在生产决策时滞上相差不大,并且规模化养殖疫情冲击的负向作用要大于非规模化养殖。     

居民储蓄的长期均衡和短期波动——中国：1991-2000年的实证分析

一、引言改革开放以来中国的收入流程出现了由政府主导型向居民主导型的巨大转化 ,居民已成为我国总储蓄的最重要主体。居民储蓄向投资转化的巨大潜力已成为中国经济增长的重要源泉之一 ,进入“储蓄推进”的经济增长阶段是我国的必然[1] 。因此近年许多学者对中国居民储蓄进行了大量研究 ,形成了许多重要成果。但现有文献在两个方面值得注意。一是研究的样本区间。现有研究文献大多是基于改革开放以来甚至是建国以来的。但在 90年代影响中国居民储蓄的经济环境发生了巨大变化 ,如资本市场迅速发展、社会保障体系改革加快、消费信贷措施出台…     

Assessing the contribution of R&;D to total factor productivity—a Bayesian approach to account for heterogeneity and heteroskedasticity

This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayes estimator for a panel data random coefficient model with heteroskedasticity to assess the contribution of R&D capital to total factor productivity. Based on Hall (1993) data for 323 US firms over 1976–1990, we find that there appear to have substantial unobserved heterogeneity and heteroskedasticity across firms and industries that support the use of our Bayes inference procedure. We find much higher returns to R&D capital and a more pronounced downswing for the 1981–1985 period, followed by a more pronounced upswing than those yielded by the conventional feasible generalized least squares estimators or other estimates. The estimated elasticities of R&D capital are 0.062 for 1976–1980, 0.036 for 1981–1985 and 0.081 for 1986–1990, while the estimated elasticities of ordinary capital are much more stable over these periods.     

陕西省保险需求收入弹性分析

文章对保险需求的收入弹性做了理论分析,利用陕西省的数据对陕西省的保险总需求、财产保险需求、人寿保险需求的收入弹性系数分别做了计算和经济分析,并且与国际上的正常区间值进行了对比,其结论是:陕西省的三个弹性系数值基本都在正常范围内,只是收入对于财产保险和人寿保险的相对影响略有差异。