中国收入分配不平等对经济增长影响的研究

文章利用中国30个省、直辖市、自治区1981-2005年的面板数据,运用面板数据模型分析中国收入分配不平等对经济增长的影响,结果表明中国短期内城乡收入差距有利于经济增长。     

The Relative Size of Windfall Income and the Permanent Income Hypothesis

A reconciliation is offered for the diverse test results on Friedman's permanent income hypothesis. A large data sample of those receiving windfall income in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' 1972–1973 Consumer Expenditure Survey is divided according to the size of the windfall relative to estimated permanent income. A pattern of a declining marginal propensity to consume windfall income as the relative size of the windfall increases is apparent. These results support the permanent income hypothesis for relatively large windfalls.     

收入分配差异状况的一种新测度方法

在衡量收入分配差异方面,基尼系数存在较大局限。设计新的测度收入分配差异状况的方法十分必要。本文提出的对称收入系数及其派生指标能很好地运用于研究收入分配的差异及其变化状况。本文还结合我国城镇居民的收入分配状况进行分析,得到了一些新的结论。     

中国居民收入分布专题实证研究——居民收入分布变迁测度及其影响因素分解

基于核密度估计方法,给出居民收入分布变迁测度及其影响因素分解的相对收入分布方法。使用中国健康和营养调查的微观居民收入数据,实证分析中国居民收入分布及其变迁的特征、过程及其影响因素。实证结果显示:中国居民收入分布变迁的速度与经济体制改革进程相对应;经济增长因素是引起居民收入分布变迁的主要因素,在提高总体居民收入水平的同时加剧了居民收入分布的极化程度;收入分配因素对居民收入分布变迁的作用相对较弱,但有一定的减贫或缩小居民收入差距作用。     

国际收入不平等变化的中国因素分析 ――基于控制经济因素的方法

 中国因素变化的贡献是国际收入不平等程度从1978年到2000年呈下降趋势的主要动力，在20世纪80和90年代的部分年份中国因素的贡献率超过100％。论文提出了国际收入不平等分析中的控制经济因素的方法，通过对中国因素的分析揭示，中国经济因素的变化是中国因素变化的主要原因，中国人口因素的变化是次要原因，但却是重要原因。所以，虽然经济增长是中国因素变化的主要原因，但人口增长的作用也非常重要。此结论同国际收入不平等分析中控制人口因素的方法的结论是相同的。     

Truncation Bias and the Measurement of Income Inequality

An experiment designed to test whether experimenter observation influences play of the ultimatum game led to a comparison of proportions of perfect equilibria obtained under different conditions. Our analysis features a Bayesian approach to this comparison. Our method extends recent work in the nonparametric Bayesian analysis of bioassay problems when the prior constrains the form of the potency curve. Sampling-based approaches to calculating posterior features of interest are used and discussed. We conclude that experimenter observation has a small influence but not enough to account for most of the deviation from perfect-equilibrium play.     

Adjusted Estimates of the Size Distribution of Family Money Income

This article describes the effects on estimates of the size distribution of family-unit money income produced by adjusting CPS estimates for 1972 by adding several other data sources. Income estimates were adjusted on an individual-observation basis to make them consistent with independent control totals. As a result of these adjustments, mean income for all units rose 12 percent. The relative share of the top 5 percent increased substantially. Property income increased and wage income decreased in relative importance. The adjustment to mean income was largest for the oldest age group and smallest for the youngest age group.     

Distribution of the Activity Time in Network Analysis: A Critical Revisit with a Gamma Alternative

Network analysis is an important technique for project management. However, the current literature is biased toward beta distribution for modeling activity times. In this article, we have critically examined the role of beta distribution. It has been shown that beta distribution plays no specific role. Further, the method for calculating the chance of project completion must be revised. We have accordingly suggested an alternative modeling in terms of gamma distribution and proposed how to calculate the chance of project completion by taking into consideration both critical and noncritical paths. For demonstration purposes, we have considered a small project.     

教育与工资不平等：中国城镇地区的经验研究

 本文在国家统计局2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据的基础上生成省级层面的数据,以此分析教育与我国城镇职工工资不平等的关系。研究发现职工教育水平的分布和教育收益率的分布都对工资不平等产生显著影响：一方面,职工平均受教育水平越高和职工受教育水平分布越平等的省市工资差距越小;另一方面,劳动力市场上的教育收益率越高、不同群体之间教育收益率的差异越大,则工资不平等程度越高。     

The Asymptotic Distribution of the S–Gini Index

Several generalizations of the classical Gini index, placing smaller or greater weights on various portions of income distribution, have been proposed by a number of authors. For purposes of statistical inference, the large sample distribution theory of the estimators of those measures of economic inequality is required. The present paper was stimulated by the use of bootstrap by Xu (2000) to estimate the variance of the estimator of the S –Gini index. It shows that the theory of L –statistics (Chernoff, Gastwirth & Johns, 1967; Shorack & Wellner, 1986) makes possible the construction of a consistent estimator for the S –Gini index and proof of its asymptotic normality. The paper also presents an explicit formula for the asymptotic variance. The formula should be helpful in planning the size of samples from which the S –Gini index can be estimated with a prescribed margin of error.     

Estimation for the Parameters of the Pareto Distribution Under Progressive Censoring

In this article, progressive Type-II right censored sample from Pareto distribution is considered. Exact confidence region is derived for the parameters of the corresponding distribution under progressive censoring. Simulation study is performed to investigate the coverage probabilities of the proposed confidence region. Illustrative example is also given.     

A Generalization of the Skew-Normal Distribution: The Beta Skew-Normal

We consider a new generalization of the skew-normal distribution introduced by Azzalini (1985 Azzalini , A. ( 1985 ). A class of distributions which includes the normal ones . Scand. J. Statis. 12 ( 2 ): 171 – 178 .[Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We denote this distribution Beta skew-normal (BSN) since it is a special case of the Beta generated distribution (Jones, 2004 Jones , M. C. ( 2004 ). Families of distributions of order statistics . Test 13 ( 1 ): 1 – 43 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Some properties of the BSN are studied. We pay attention to some generalizations of the skew-normal distribution (Bahrami et al., 2009 Bahrami , W. , Agahi , H. , Rangin , H. ( 2009 ). A two-parameter Balakrishnan skew-normal distribution . J. Statist. Res. Iran 6 : 231 – 242 . [Google Scholar]; Sharafi and Behboodian, 2008 Sharafi , M. , Behboodian , J. ( 2008 ). The Balakrishnan skew-normal density . Statist. Pap. 49 : 769 – 778 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Yadegari et al., 2008 Yadegari , I. , Gerami , A. , Khaledi , M. J. ( 2008 ). A generalization of the Balakrishnan skew-normal distribution . Statist. Probab. Lett. 78 : 1165 – 1167 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and to their relations with the BSN.     

Variable Selection in Joint Location and Scale Models of the Skew-t-Normal Distribution

Variable selection is an important issue in all regression analysis, and in this article, we investigate the simultaneous variable selection in joint location and scale models of the skew-t-normal distribution when the dataset under consideration involves heavy tail and asymmetric outcomes. We propose a unified penalized likelihood method which can simultaneously select significant variables in the location and scale models. Furthermore, the proposed variable selection method can simultaneously perform parameter estimation and variable selection in the location and scale models. With appropriate selection of the tuning parameters, we establish the consistency and the oracle property of the regularized estimators. These estimators are compared by simulation studies.     

基于社会核算矩阵乘数的中国产业、居民相对收入分析

 本文使用社会核算矩阵(SAM)收入分配乘数及其分解方法,对中国2000年细分SAM进行了分析,研究了经济系统中产业部门、居民部门相对收入的变化,以及政府部门在收入分配过程中的作用,并分析了引起相对收入变化的构成。通过分析我们得出,从相对收入角度来说,大部分产业之间是非相互促进的;产业对居民相对收入的提高与居民的初始收入水平有较高的相关性;政府部门的投入会提高城镇居民的相对收入,但却会降低农村居民的相对收入。     

中国农户的人情支出行为研究——基于收入不平等和社会地位寻求视角

使用中国家庭追踪调查数据,首次基于收入不平等和社会地位寻求的双重视角,使用Tobit模型对消费持续低迷背景下农户人情支出不断攀升的现象进行了研究,实证分析结果表明:(1)农户自家婚丧嫁娶花费是一种地位性支出,然而农户的人情支出并非地位性支出,更多体现了"随大流"的从众心理;(2)收入差距扩大通过婚丧嫁娶攀比对农户人情支出的拉动作用远远大于收入不平等产生的抑制作用;(3)家庭求人帮忙的事情越多,人情支出也越多。     

New Properties of the Kumaraswamy Distribution

The Kumaraswamy distribution is very similar to the Beta distribution but has the key advantage of a closed-form cumulative distribution function. This makes it much better suited than the Beta distribution for computation-intensive activities like simulation modeling and the estimation of models by simulation-based methods. However, in spite of the fact that the Kumaraswamy distribution was introduced in 1980, further theoretical research on the distribution was not developed until very recently (Garg, 2008 Garg , M. ( 2008 ). On distribution of order statistics from Kumaraswamy distribution . Kyunpook Mathemat. J. 48 : 411 – 417 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]; Jones, 2009 Jones , M. C. ( 2009 ). Kumaraswamy's distribution: A beta-type distribution with some tractability advantages . Statist. Methodol. 6 ( 1 ): 70 – 81 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]; Mitnik, 2009 Mitnik , P. ( 2009 ). The Kumaraswamy distribution: a median-dispersion re-parameterization for regression modeling and simulation-based estimation. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1231587 . [Google Scholar]; Nadarajah, 2008 Nadarajah , S. ( 2008 ). On the distribution of Kumaraswamy . J. Hydrol. 348 : 568 – 569 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). This article contributes to this recent research and: (a) shows that Kumaraswamy variables exhibit closeness under exponentiation and under linear transformation; (b) derives an expression for the moments of the general form of the distribution; (c) specifies some of the distribution's limiting distributions; and (d) introduces an analytical expression for the mean absolute deviation around the median as a function of the parameters of the distribution, and establishes some bounds for this dispersion measure and for the variance.     

A Bayesian Inference and Stochastic Dynamic Programming Approach to Determine the Best Binomial Distribution

In this research, we employ Bayesian inference and stochastic dynamic programming approaches to select the binomial population with the largest probability of success from n independent Bernoulli populations based upon the sample information. To do this, we first define a probability measure called belief for the event of selecting the best population. Second, we explain the way to model the selection problem using Bayesian inference. Third, we clarify the model by which we improve the beliefs and prove that it converges to select the best population. In this iterative approach, we update the beliefs by taking new observations on the populations under study. This is performed using Bayesian rule and prior beliefs. Fourth, we model the problem of making the decision in a predetermined number of decision stages using the stochastic dynamic programming approach. Finally, in order to understand and to evaluate the proposed methodology, we provide two numerical examples and a comparison study by simulation. The results of the comparison study show that the proposed method performs better than that of Levin and Robbins (1981 Levin , B. , Robbins , H. ( 1981 ). Selecting the highest probability in Binomial or multinomial trials . Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 78 : 4663 – 4666 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) for some values of estimated probability of making a correct selection.     

中国收入分配的公平与效率关系测度及评价

首先对公平与效率做出了精确定义,确定其指标,然后测度由于收入分配总量和结构引致的公平与效率的变化量,在此基础上构建了一个公平效率指数,用来反映中国二者关系的变化及其协调程度,最后采用目标优化的方法对收入分配总量和结构进行了优化,根据优化结果提出了改善收入分配关系的建议。     

Sample Size Calculation and Blinded Sample Size Recalculation in Clinical Trials Where the Treatment Effect is Measured by the Relative Risk

In clinical trials with binary endpoints, the required sample size does not depend only on the specified type I error rate, the desired power and the treatment effect but also on the overall event rate which, however, is usually uncertain. The internal pilot study design has been proposed to overcome this difficulty. Here, nuisance parameters required for sample size calculation are re-estimated during the ongoing trial and the sample size is recalculated accordingly. We performed extensive simulation studies to investigate the characteristics of the internal pilot study design for two-group superiority trials where the treatment effect is captured by the relative risk. As the performance of the sample size recalculation procedure crucially depends on the accuracy of the applied sample size formula, we firstly explored the precision of three approximate sample size formulae proposed in the literature for this situation. It turned out that the unequal variance asymptotic normal formula outperforms the other two, especially in case of unbalanced sample size allocation. Using this formula for sample size recalculation in the internal pilot study design assures that the desired power is achieved even if the overall rate is mis-specified in the planning phase. The maximum inflation of the type I error rate observed for the internal pilot study design is small and lies below the maximum excess that occurred for the fixed sample size design.     

集聚效应、集聚效率与城市规模分布变化

摘　　要:本文从城市集聚效应的视角,分析我国城市规模分布的结构性变化的机制,在此基础上构建了包含集聚效应的城市总量生产函数的计量经济学模型,然后应用OLS方法估算我国不同规模等级城市的平均集聚效应指数和平均集聚效率指数．并对比分析其对城市规模分布变化的影响。本文的实证结果表明,平均集聚效率指数的高低与城市规模分布比重的增减相一致。