Estimation of Short-Run and Long-Run Elasticities of Energy Demand From Panel Data Using Shrinkage Estimators

This article discusses the problem of obtaining short-run and long-run elasticities of energy demand for each of 49 states in the United States using data for 21 years. Estimation using the time series data by each state gave several wrong signs for the coefficients. Estimation using pooled data was not valid because the hypothesis of homogeneity of the coefficients was rejected. Shrinkage estimators gave more reasonable results. The article presents in a unified framework the classical, empirical Bayes, and Bayes approaches for deriving these estimators.     

近20年来中国电力需求的行业与地域结构分析

采用行业结构和地域结构相结合的方法,分析了近20年来中国电力消费需求的变化,结果发现：随着国民经济的发展,电力消费量也呈同步增长态势;就四大行业的电力消耗来看,1986-2005年,第一产业的耗电量变化不大,城乡居民和第三产业耗电量都有所增长,第二产业是中国耗电量最大的行业,且年增长率较大;通过对中国31个省区人均电力消费量的分析,将其划分为6个等级,结果表明人均电力消费量与人均GDP呈正相关关系。在此基础上,以人口和人均GDP为变量,建立了中国电力发展的地域需求模型,发现城市化水平和经济发展程度是中国各省区电力需求的关键增长因素,而人口的弹性系数呈逐年下降趋势。     

中国省际资本边际报酬估算

 资本边际报酬是决定投资和资本配置的重要因素。本文利用中国省际宏观数据,估算了1990-2006年中国各省的资本边际报酬。结果显示,我国各省、直辖市的资本边际报酬呈现出东部沿海地区较高,而中西部地区较低的状况。同时,部分较落后地区的资本边际报酬不断增加,甚至已经超过了大部分沿海省份,而沿海省份的资本边际报酬增长趋势不再明显,很多省份呈现持平甚至下降趋势。这一结果说明,我国固定资本投资极不平衡的现象与中国省际的资本边际报酬估算结果是一致的,但是根据资本边际报酬的变化趋势,该问题在今后或许可以得到缓解。     

Ridge Regression for Estimation of Transition Probabilities from Aggregate Data

When data from several independent Markov chains are aggregated over each time point, least square estimation of transition probabilities faces the problem of multi-collinearity. We propose here an estimation procedure which involves use of ridge regression for the ordinary least square estimators. Performance of this estimator is then compared with that of the ordinary least squares.     

Imputation of Household Survey Data Using Linear Mixed Models

Mixed models are regularly used in the analysis of clustered data, but are only recently being used for imputation of missing data. In household surveys where multiple people are selected from each household, imputation of missing values should preserve the structure pertaining to people within households and should not artificially change the apparent intracluster correlation (ICC). This paper focuses on the use of multilevel models for imputation of missing data in household surveys. In particular, the performance of a best linear unbiased predictor for both stochastic and deterministic imputation using a linear mixed model is compared to imputation based on a single level linear model, both with and without information about household respondents. In this paper an evaluation is carried out in the context of imputing hourly wage rate in the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics of Australia Survey. Nonresponse is generated under various assumptions about the missingness mechanism for persons and households, and with low, moderate and high intra‐household correlation to assess the benefits of the multilevel imputation model under different conditions. The mixed model and single level model with information about the household respondent lead to clear improvements when the ICC is moderate or high, and when there is informative missingness.     

Exact Estimation of Demand Functions under Block-Rate Pricing

This article proposes an exact estimation of demand functions under block-rate pricing by focusing on increasing block-rate pricing. This is the first study that explicitly considers the separability condition which has been ignored in previous literature. Under this pricing structure, the price changes when consumption exceeds a certain threshold and the consumer faces a utility maximization problem subject to a piecewise-linear budget constraint. Solving this maximization problem leads to a statistical model in which model parameters are strongly restricted by the separability condition. In this article, by taking a hierarchical Bayesian approach, we implement a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation to properly estimate the demand function. We find, however, that the convergence of the distribution of simulated samples to the posterior distribution is slow, requiring an additional scale transformation step for parameters to the Gibbs sampler. These proposed methods are then applied to estimate the Japanese residential water demand function.     

The Estimation of Food Expenditures From Household Budget Data in the Presence of Bulk Purchases

The aim of this article is the estimation of annual food expenditures with limited information about bulk purchases with data from a Spanish household-budget survey for 1990—1991. Three alternatives are compared. The first, currently used for official purposes, does not use all the information. The second uses all the available information in a rough way. The third assumes a formal model for the unknown frequency of purchases. The three alternatives are compared by a regression model that should be homogeneous with respect to the dummy variables that represent the partial information of the groups and should show a distinct pattern of outliers under each alternative. Finally, we study the effect of the official and the best alternative on food inflation and inequality measures. We find that they lead to similar inflation rates but to different inequality estimates.     

Estimation of a Composite Food Demand System for the United States

This study develops statistical procedures for computing the parameters of a complete demand system. A constrained maximum likelihood method has been applied, and parametric restrictions derived from classical demand theory are introduced by a substitution approach. The procedures are then applied to U.S. data for estimating a composite food demand system covering 12 food categories and one nonfood sector.     

交通运输消费倾向与需求的实证研究

无论是传统的运输需求模型还是LES或ELES模型,用于交通运输消费的行业性需求分析或预测都存在不足,主要是指标的实物化和多因素造成的函数关系的不稳定性。通过设置交通运输消费倾向,并引入持久预期收入和生命周期等理论模型可克服这些缺陷。借助交通运输消费倾向可以对中国居民交通运输消费市场进行区域划分。交通运输消费倾向与第三产业发展程度存在着显著的相关性,积极支持落后地区交通运输业的发展是缩小地区差距的一种有效方法。     

Estimation of Distribution Functions Using Data from Different Environments

Suppose that when a unit operatesin a certain environment, its lifetime has distribution G,and when the unit operates in another environment, its lifetimehas a different distribution, say F. Moreover, supposethe unit is operated for a certain period of time in the firstenvironment and is then transferred to the second environment.Thus we observe a censored lifetime in the first environmentand a failure time of a ``used' unit in the second environment.We propose an EM algorithm approach for obtaining a self-consistentestimator of F. Moreover, suppose using observations from both environments.The case where failure times are subject to right censoring isconsidered as well. We also establish the maximum likelihoodestimator of F. Moreover, suppose when the unit is repairable. Applicationand simulation studies are presented to illustrate the methodsderived.     

The Probability Distribution of Future Demand

The bootstrapping technique of Efron (1979) is used to estimate the probability distribution of future electricity demand for Hydro Quebec. The application follows the regression approach of Freedman and Peters (1984a,b) but also allows for serially correlated disturbances and uncertainty in the independent variable forecasts.     

江苏省电力消费量的影响因素及预测

为对影响江苏省电力消费量的因素进行分析,文章采用了单位根和协整分析技术,对江苏省三次产业与电力消费量之间的关系进行了实证分析,得到了有启示意义的结论;同时,还建立了VAR模型,对电力消费量进行了预测,其结果表明,该模型的精确度很高,具有较强的实用性。     

我国居民消费需求分析

近年来,我国消费率不断下降,投资率持续上升,经济增长主要依靠投资需求拉动,经济增长中的结构性矛盾日渐突出,并将影响我国经济的持续稳定健康发展。本文在分析我国居民消费需求存在的主要问题的基础上,揭示了影响我国居民消费需求扩大的基本原因,提出扩大我国居民消费需求的对策建议。     

Conditionally Efficient Estimation of Long-Run Relationships Using Mixed-Frequency Time Series

I analyze efficient estimation of a cointegrating vector when the regressand and regressor are observed at different frequencies. Previous authors have examined the effects of specific temporal aggregation or sampling schemes, finding conventionally efficient techniques to be efficient only when both the regressand and the regressors are average sampled. Using an alternative method for analyzing aggregation under more general weighting schemes, I derive an efficiency bound that is conditional on the type of aggregation used on the low-frequency series and differs from the unconditional bound defined by the full-information high-frequency data-generating process, which is infeasible due to aggregation of at least one series. I modify a conventional estimator, canonical cointegrating regression (CCR), to accommodate cases in which the aggregation weights are known. The correlation structure may be utilized to offset the potential information loss from aggregation, resulting in a conditionally efficient estimator. In the case of unknown weights, the correlation structure of the error term generally confounds identification of conditionally efficient weights. Efficiency is illustrated using a simulation study and an application to estimating a gasoline demand equation.     

Estimation of Technical Efficiency Using Flexible Functional Form and Panel Data

This article presents an econometric model capable of accommodating a nonradial measure of input-specific technical inefficiency and suggests an estimation technique that reduces dependency on distributional assumptions on inefficiency. It also makes use of the demand system derived from a flexible cost function and imposes concavity restrictions as required by economic theory. Panel data on 12 Finnish foundry plants are used to estimate technical efficiency of labor and energy for each of these plants.     

中国能源需求影响因素的研究

基于中国1990—2007年的经济数据,通过分析影响能源需求的经济因素,利用通径分析法测算出各相关经济因素与能源需求的直接、间接关系及总影响程度,分析各因素对能源需求的影响路径,并根据测算结果提出相应的对策。     

国际储备国际政治军事模型的构建

从经验和实际上看,国际政治军事风险是影响国际储备需求的重要因素。本文构建了一个国际政治军事因素影响国际储备需求的理论模型,清晰阐释了国际政治军事因素对国际储备数量影响的内在逻辑和作用机理,证实了那些非基督教文明且具有高国际政治军事风险的国家偏好持有更多的国际储备,该理论模型丰富和发展了国际储备需求决定因素理论,为把国际政治军事变量纳入储备需求方程提供了理论依据。     

Nonparametric versus Parametric Estimation of the Cure Fraction Using Interval Censored Data

This article discusses estimation of the cure rate by means of the bounded cumulative hazard (BCH) model using interval censored data. The parametric and nonparametric estimation methods within the framework of the EM algorithm were employed for cure rate estimation and their results compared. The Turnbull estimator was used in the nonparametric estimation while in parametric method both the exponential and Weibull distributions were considered. We show via simulation that the nonparametric method is a viable alternative to the parametric one when the censoring rate is rapidly increasing.     

Estimation of the Average Survival Function Using a Censored Data Regression Model

In the presence of covariates information, assuming the linear relationship between a transformation of survival time and covariates, we propose a new estimator of survival function and show its consistency. In addition, a comparison of the proposed estimator with the product-limit estimator introduced by Kaplan and Meier (1958) is performed through Monte Carlo simulation studies. We illustrate the proposed estimator with the updated Stanford heart transplant data.     

消费者信心指数与消费需求关系研究——以南京市居民消费需求为例

传统消费理论主要是注重对消费者收入与消费支出的关系研究,而新的西方消费者信心指数理论指出,消费者信心指数对消费支出有重要影响,特别是在当前国内消费需求增长缓慢的情况下,如何提高居民消费信心对刺激居民消费支出的增长有着重要的现实意义。运用计量经济模型,并结合南京市居民消费支出增长与消费者信心指数的数量关系,通过实证研究印证了两者间存在紧密相关性,从而建立南京市居民消费函数的主观因素拓展模型,并进而提出提高居民消费需求的政策建议,即在注重对影响消费的客观因素——收入的研究外,还要注重对影响消费的主观因素——消费者信心指数的研究。