消费者偏好与真实生活成本

本文在消费者偏好结构可变的假设下,探讨了1998-2012年我国消费者真实生活成本。研究表明忽视消费者偏好结构的变化通常会高估消费者真实生活成本水平和增长幅度,而这种替代偏误的程度取决于基期的选择。基于这种研究发现,政府有关部门在使用消费者物价指数制定相关政策（尤其是福利政策）时,本文研究的非参数型真实生活成本指数 可能比一般的拉氏物价指数更为合适。因此,建议统计部门在使用拉氏价格指数统计消费者物价水平的同时,应该定期编制和公布 指数。     

基于效用函数和消费数据的动态价格指数测度

 本文针对现有CPI的缺点,在微观效用理论的基础上,引入了动态价格指数(DPI)的概念,并利用Epstein-Zin效用函数简化了Reis(2005)关于DPI的编制过程,同时,利用2000年12月－2010年12月间的样本数据,对我国的DPI进行编制。研究表明,DPI在衡量消费者当前和未来的真实生活成本变化方面更具有优势,应成为衡量居民福利变化和政策制定者制定政策的重要参考指标。     

Measuring price-induced changes in standard of living in least developed countries: economic validity of laspeyres price indices and some further suggestions

Usually, also in developing countries, price-induced changes in standard of living are measured by means of Laspeyres price indices. Looking at the special economic situation characterizing least developed countries, the economic validit of such indices is doubtful. The main theoretical results of this paper are derived on the basis of a special utility concept which may be considered typical for least developed countries. It is shown that, under certain conditions, a Laspeyres price index over- or underestimates respectively changes in standard of living. Furthermore, it does not sufficiently evaluate households’ supply positions. These theoretical results are motivated and illustrated by a special least developed country, the Republic of Niger. The paper closes with some further suggestions for measuring changes in standard of living in developing countries.     

Wald's “true index” derived ipso facto

This paper presents a direct algebraic demonstration of the formula of the "true index" of cost of living given by Wald (1939).     

On the factorial approach providing the true index of cost of living: an interpretation of a special pair of equations

This note presents an interpretation of a special pair of the six equations which were derived in the context of providing the true index of cost of living through what has been called “the factorial approache”[See Banerjee (1961a,b) and Banerjee (1975).]     

Economic statistical design of a multivariate control chart under a Burr XII shock model with multiple assignable causes

Control charts show the distinction between the random and assignable causes of variation in a process. The real process may be affected by many characteristics and several assignable causes. Therefore, the economic statistical design of multiple control chart under Burr XII shock model with multiple assignable causes can be an appropriate candidate model. In this paper, we develop a cost model based on the optimization of the average cost per unit of time. Indeed, the cost model under the influence of a single match case assignable cause and multiple assignable causes under a same cost and time parameters were compared. Besides, a sensitivity analysis was also presented in which the changeability of loss-cost and design parameters were evaluated based on the changes in cost, time and Burr XII distribution parameters.     

On indices of marginal and total production cost

In this paper we suggest cost indices that measure absolute changes in total and marginal production costs between two periods when factor prices change. The class of cost functions that generate equal total and marginal cost indices is characterized. A numerical illustration of the indices is provided using Indian cotton textile industry data.     

猪肉价格上涨与消费福利损失的实证研究——以江西省瑞昌市低收入者为例

2007年5月以来的猪肉价格上涨给低收入者带来了较大的福利损失,为确保低收入者的基本生活水平不受影响,需要对其进行适当财政补贴。利用经验数据拟合了低收入者的效用函数,结合2007年前三季度与2006年前三季度的猪肉价格变动,运用等价性变化、补偿性变化以及消费者剩余变化,衡量了猪肉价格上涨造成的低收入者福利损失,并为政府确定对低收入者的财政补贴金额提供了切实可行的参考标准。     

Budget constrained run orders in optimum design

When experiments are to be performed in a time sequence, the observed responses may be affected by an unknown time trend. Run orders that are optimally balanced for time trends usually involve huge costs due to the large number of factor level changes. Therefore, trend-free run orders can be of low practical value in view of economical considerations. Tack and Vandebroek (J. Statist. Plann. Inference 98 (2001) 293) recently presented a design algorithm to construct trend-resistant run orders that give maximal information per unit cost. In this paper, the latter approach is extended to the construction of trendresistant run orders for which the total cost has to be lower than a specified budget. A new design algorithm is proposed that offers the experimenter a general method for solving a wide range of practical design problems.     

Confocal fluorescence microscopy of leaf cells: an application of Bayesian image analysis

Confocal fluorescence microscopy is a recent and important imaging tool for visualizing three-dimensional specimens without the need for physical sectioning, so that changes in living cells can be studied over time. The application of interest here is a study of the changes in the stomatal guard cells of plant leaves during their opening and closing response sequences. Quantitative estimates of the size and shape of these cells rely on accurate classification (or segmentation) of the images into areas which are parts of cells and areas which are background. This segmentation is complicated in confocal microscopy because the images appear to be 'smudged' or 'dirty'; this degradation is due largely to diffraction and attenuation of the recorded signal caused by the specimen itself. Correcting for this degradation is difficult without knowing the specimen-dependent parameters involved in the degradation process. A fully Bayesian approach is proposed for tackling this problem of blind deconvolution, i.e. of concurrently estimating the degradation parameters while segmenting two-dimensional sections. The end-products are interval estimates of size and shape which acknowledge some of the uncertainty involved in the segmentation. The results are promising, generating credible intervals which are sufficiently narrow to be useful in practice.     

First computations of the 1988 national census results

A preliminary analysis of data from the 1988 census of Poland is presented, using data for Plock voivodship. Topics covered include changes in percent urban population, dependency ratio, sex ratio, household composition, childlessness, one-parent families, retired persons, employment status, and living standards.     

增加值贸易视角下我国区际贸易成本的测算与分解

本文在Novy（2013）的基础之上，利用1997年、2002年与2007年区域间投入产出表，首次基于增加值贸易视角进行了中国区际贸易成本变动的测算与分解。结果显示：首先，不同于传统贸易流量的测度，基于增加值贸易视角的测度表明，1997-2007年的区际贸易成本不仅未有上升，反而大幅下降。其次，尽管当前的区际贸易成本有所下降，但是这种下降主要体现为以内陆地区和初级产品带动的低端化整合。最后，进一步地利用双边分解，本文发现低端化整合的迹象可能在于邻区偏少、产业同构度过高与政策缺失下，东部沿海更多利用国外需求进行替代所致。随着东部沿海的对外依赖程度提升，区际分工整合将会面临“初级产品分工整合加快→服务行业过度出口→遭受出口俘获→初级产品分工整合进一步加快”的恶性循环。因此，进一步转变发展观念、扭转市场分割激励、加快基础设施建设，才能从根本上提升区际整合质量。     

Two decades of family change: secondary analysis of continuous government surveys

"Secondary analysis of General Household Survey and Labour Force Survey data shows how the structure of families in Great Britain has changed over the last 20 years. Dependent children are now less likely to be living in a couple family and more likely to be living with a lone mother who is either single or divorced. Families in simple households with just two generations have become more common over time. Lone mothers are now more likely to be living in simple households. The paper also considers how the number and ages of dependent children are associated with family and household type. Log-linear models are used both to smooth the data and to predict family structure in the year 2000. Gaps in our knowledge about current family structures are discussed together with implications of the findings for social policy."     

A computationally efficient nonparametric approach for changepoint detection

In this paper we build on an approach proposed by Zou et al. (2014) for nonparametric changepoint detection. This approach defines the best segmentation for a data set as the one which minimises a penalised cost function, with the cost function defined in term of minus a non-parametric log-likelihood for data within each segment. Minimising this cost function is possible using dynamic programming, but their algorithm had a computational cost that is cubic in the length of the data set. To speed up computation, Zou et al. (2014) resorted to a screening procedure which means that the estimated segmentation is no longer guaranteed to be the global minimum of the cost function. We show that the screening procedure adversely affects the accuracy of the changepoint detection method, and show how a faster dynamic programming algorithm, pruned exact linear time (PELT) (Killick et al. 2012), can be used to find the optimal segmentation with a computational cost that can be close to linear in the amount of data. PELT requires a penalty to avoid under/over-fitting the model which can have a detrimental effect on the quality of the detected changepoints. To overcome this issue we use a relatively new method, changepoints over a range of penalties (Haynes et al. 2016), which finds all of the optimal segmentations for multiple penalty values over a continuous range. We apply our method to detect changes in heart-rate during physical activity.     

Optimal acceptance sampling policy considering Bayesian risks

In this paper, we propose a sampling policy considering Bayesian risks. Various definitions of producer's risk and consumer's risk have been made. Bayesian risks for both producer and consumer are proven to give better information to decision-makers than classical definitions of the risks. So considering the Bayesian risk constraints, we seek to find optimal acceptance sampling policy by minimizing total cost, including the cost of rejecting the batch, the cost of inspection, and the cost of defective items detected during the operation. Proper distributions to construct the objective function of the model are specified. In order to demonstrate the application of the proposed model, we illustrate a numerical example. Furthermore, the results of the sensitivity analysis show that lot size, the cost of inspection, and the cost of one defective item are key factors in sampling policies. The acceptable quality level, the lot tolerance proportion defective, and Bayesian risks also affect the sampling policy, but variations of acceptable quality level and producer Bayesian risks, for values more than a specified value, cause no changes in sampling policy.     

The future of old-age security in the Federal Republic of Germany

The future aspects of old age security in the Federal Republic of Germany are considered primarily according to the criteria of demographic changes to be expected or presumed. The starting point of our simulations is a strongly declining birth rate which effects a drop in the population growth as well as different criteria concerning the age structure. It is shown that, apart from the demographic structure, the economic development is of decisive importance for old age security. By a model variant obtained by a broad spectrum of simulations, it is shown that an increase in the standard of living affecting all population groups (including pensioners) can be attained provided that the manpower potential is well utilized and the labor productivity is progressing satisfactorily. However, by no means can problems concerning strategies of distribution that are likely to appear be solved by a complete denial of the financing procedure by persons currently employed. The social security of the older persons who no longer are gainfully employed can be financed by the current national product. (author's)     

The Prediction Sum of Squares as a General Measure for Regression Diagnostics

Statistics that usually accompany the regression model do not provide insight into the quality of the data or the potential influence of the individual observations on the estimates. In this study, the Q² statistic is used as a criterion for detecting influential observations or outliers. The statistic is derived from the jackknifed residuals, the squared sum of which is generally known as the prediction sum of squares or PRESS. This article compares R ² with Q² and suggests that the latter be used as part of the data-quality check. It is shown, for two separate data sets obtained from regional cost of living and U.S. food industry studies, that in the presence of outliers the Q² statistic can be negative, because it is sensitive to the choice of regressors and the inclusion of influential observations. Once the outliers are dropped from the sample, the discrepancy between Q² and R ² values is negligible.     

Evaluate the relative efficiency of a targeted clinical trial design to an untargeted design under the issue of cost

In this article, we evaluate the relative cost of a targeted design to an untargeted design for a randomized clinical trial comparing a new treatment to a control. We observed that when the ratio of screen cost per person and drug cost per person is very small, say 0.008, the trial cost for conducting a targeted design might be fewer than that for conducting an untargeted design. When the difference between the treatment effect for the targeted patients and the treatment effect for the untargeted patients is increased, the savings in trial cost for the targeted design would be increased significantly. The greater sensitivity and specificity for the screen tool will lead to greater savings in trial cost for the targeted design. The relative cost of a targeted design to an untargeted design is associated with the treatment effect difference between targeted and untargeted patients, the proportion of targeted patients in the population, the screen tool performance, and the ratio of drug cost per person and screen cost per person.     

Minimum Cost Linear Trend Free 2n-(n-k) Designs of Resolution IV

This article extends the resolution of time trend free designs for sequential 2^n-p experiments from III into IV and minimizes the number of factor level changes between runs (i.e., cost) by constructing a catalog of (2^k?2 ?1) minimum cost linear trend free resolution IV 2^n?(n?k) designs (2^k?2 ≤ n ≤ 2^k?1?2) from the full 2^k factorial experiment using the interactions-main effects assignment technique. Each systematic 2^n?(n?k) design in the catalog is economic in minimum number of factor level changes and allows for the estimation of all n main effects unbiased by either the linear time trend (which may be present in the 2^n?(n?k) sequentially generated responses) or the non negligible two-factor interactions. This article provides for each 2^n?(n?k) design: (1) the defining relation or the alias structure; (2) the k independent generators for sequencing the 2^n?(n?k) runs by the generalized foldover scheme; and (3) the minimum cost represented by the total number of factor level changes between the 2^n?(n?k) runs. All k main effects of the 2^k experiment are excluded from the selection assignment process due to their nonlinear time trend resistance as well as excluding a total of (2^k?1 –k +1) interactions violating the resolution IV requirement.     

住房价格应该纳入通货膨胀的统计范围吗？

 本文分别从度量生活成本和执行货币政策的角度研究住房价格是否应该纳入通货膨胀的统计范围。从度量生活成本的角度看,应该将住房价格纳入CPI的统计范围,然而本文的文献回顾表明,如何在CPI的统计框架下妥善处理住房价格仍然没有一致的结论。从执行货币政策的角度看,考虑到核心通货膨胀更适合作为货币政策的通货膨胀目标,本文研究了住房价格对核心通货膨胀的影响,发现住房价格对我国核心通货膨胀的影响微乎其微。这表明,如果稳定物价是货币政策的唯一目标,则货币政策无需考虑住房价格。然而,由于我国的货币政策需要兼顾多个目标且住房价格会显著影响产出水平,所以从稳定产出的角度看,货币政策仍须重视住房价格。