Immigration's prism: Historical continuities in the Kennedy-Simpson legal immigration reform bill

National debates about U.S. immigration policy usually involve a blend of three issues: (1) How many immigrants should the United States accept? (2) Where should the immigrants come from? and (3) What criteria should be used in selecting immigrants? The debate and compromise surrounding the Kennedy-Simpson bill, passed by the U.S. Senate in July 1989 and constituting the Senate's latest attempt to reform U.S.legal immigration policy, is no exception. This paper examines the evolution of the Kennedy-Simpson bill, partly to reveal current directions in U.S. immigration policy but more importantly to use this analysis as a prism through which historical continuities in U.S. immigration reforms may be isolated and evaluated.     

Pathways to legal immigration

In this paper we use the New Immigrant Survey Pilot Study (NISP) todescribe the amount and kind of experience that immigrants accumulate in the United States before they become permanent resident aliens. The NISP surveyed a representative sampleof legal immigrants who acquired residence papers during July and August of 1996, yielding a completed sample of 1,135 adults. Our analysis revealed that roughly two-thirds of thesenewly arrived immigrants had prior experience in the United States within one of six basic categories: illegal border-crossers, visa abusers, non-resident visitors, non-resident workers, students or exchange visitors, and refugees/asylees. Each of these pathways to legal immigration wasassociated with a different profile with respect to nationality, social background, and economic status. Using simple earnings regressions we demonstrate how these differences can yield misleading conclusions about the process of immigrant adaptation and assimilation, even if measured effects are reasonably accurate. We suggest that social scientists should changethe way they think and ask about immigrants' arrival in the United States.     

The new immigrant survey pilot (NIS-P): Overview and new findings about U.S. Legal immigrants at admission

This paper provides an overview of the New Immigrant Survey Pilot (NIS-P), a panel survey of a nationally representative sample of new legal immigrants to the United States based on probability samples of administrative records of the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS). The NIS-P links survey information about immigrants' pre- and post-immigration labor market, schooling, and migratory experiences with data available from INS administrative records, including the visa type under which the immigrant was admitted. Results indicate that the procedures followed for locating, interviewing, and reinterviewing respondents yielded representative samples of new legal immigrants and high-quality data. On the basis of data obtained from the first round of the survey, we present new information never before available on the schooling and language skills of new immigrants and their earnings gains from immigration.     

Foreign-Born Emigration From The United States: 1960 To 1970

This paper presents estimates of emigration of foreign-born persons by age and sex for 1960 to 1970, based on 1960 and 1970 census counts of the foreign-born population, adjusted life table survival rates, and annual statistics on alien immigration published by the Immigration and Naturalization Service. The effects of nativity bias are discussed. It is estimated that approximately 1,140,000 foreign-born persons emigrated between 1960 and 1970, of which 663,000, or 58 percent, were women and 477,000 were men. Almost one-quarter of the foreign-born emigrants were women 25–44 years of age in 1970. About 175,000 foreign-born persons 65 years and over in 1970 emigrated during the decade. The most significant finding, that more than one million foreign-born persons left the United States between 1960 and 1970, has important implications for U.S. immigration policy and for net immigration data used to estimate the population of the United States.     

Undocumented workers in the labor market: an analysis of the earnings of legal and illegal Mexican immigrants in the United States

This paper studies the differences in earnings between Mexican legal and illegal immigrants in the United States. The analysis includes a cross-sectional examination of the wage differences between legal and undocumented workers as well as a longitudinal analysis examining the impact of legalization on the earnings of previously-undocumented workers. It is shown that the average hourly wage rate of male Mexican legal immigrants in the United States was 41.8% higher than that of undocumented workers while female legal immigrants earned 40.8% more. Though illegal immigrants have lower education and English proficiency, and a shorter period of residence in the United States, than legal immigrants, it is shown that differences in the observed characteristics of legal and illegal immigrants explain only 48% of the log-wage gap between male legal and illegal workers and 43% of the gap for women. An analysis of undocumented immigrants legalized after the 1986 U.S. immigration policy reform shows significant wage growth in the four years following legalization. These gains are due mostly to the change in legal status itself, not to changes in the characteristics of immigrants over time. Received: 7 July 1997/Accepted: 16 March 1998     

An alternative approach to immigration policy: Rationing by skill

Current U.S. immigration policy places a heavy emphasis on kinship ties with a U.S. citizen or resident alien in rationing immigration visas. An alternative policy is to focus on the skills of visa applicants. Immigrants with higher levels of schooling and with skills that are more readily transferable to the U.S. labor market are more productive, as measured by their earnings. A larger proportion of skilled workers in a cohort of immigrants tends to narrow the differences in earnings among skill groups in the native-born population. This reduces income inequality and reduces the use of income transfers by the low-skilled native-born population. More highly-skilled immigrants also make less use of income-contingent transfers. A point-system would be necessary to combine the multidimensional aspects of skill. The adoption of skill-based rationing with a point system in Canada led to an increase in the skill level of the immigrants.     

U.S. population in the 21st century: Which scenario is reasonable?

A major Census Bureau study released in January 1989 has evoked renewed warnings in the media and among some population analysts that the U.S. faces population decline in the next century if it does not increase fertility and/or raise immigration. The report's middle scenario rests on an assumed future total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.8, life expectancy of 81.2 years, and net immigration of 500,000 annually. These mid-range assumptions would yield a United States population of 268 million by 2000, peaking at 302 million in 2040 and falling to 292 million by 2080. Questionable assumptions in the report's most likely scenario are discussed. These are:

1. that immigrants bear children at the same rate as their equivalent age and racial group in the United States population.
2. that the high TFR of Hispanics will not raise the overall 1.8 TFR foreseen for whites as the Hispanic proportion of the white population continues to grow.
3. that net yearly immigration will fall to 575,000 in 1990 and 500,000 by 2000. The Census Bureau's "high" assumption of 800,000 net yearly may be more realistic.

The report's low growth scenario projects future population size that is more reassuring than alarming: 264 million in 2000, rising to 288 million in 2030, and falling to 266 million in 2080. Thus, in ninety years the United States would still have 20 million more people than now. While some fear that such slow growth will lower United States influence and bring labor shortages and an aging population, the nation's quality of life would be less at risk with a population of 266 million than with one approaching the one-half billion projected by the Census report's high estimates.     

Self-selection and earnings assimilation: Immigrants from the former Soviet Union in Israel and the United States

Drawing on U.S. decennial census data and on Israeli census and longitudinal data, we compare the educational levels and earnings assimilation of Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union (FSU) in the United States and Israel during 1968-2000. Because the doors to both countries were practically open to FSU immigrants between 1968 and 1989, when FSU immigrants were entitled to refugee visas in the United States, the comparison can be viewed as a natural experiment in immigrants' destination choices. The results suggest that FSU immigrants to the United States are of significantly higher educational level and experience significantly faster rates of earnings assimilation in their new destination than their counterparts who immigrated to Israel. We present evidence that patterns of self-selection in immigration to Israel and the United States--on both measured and unmeasured productivity-related traits--is the main reason for these results. When the immigration regulations in the United States changed in 1989, and FSU Jewish immigrants to the United States had to rely on family reunification for obtaining immigrant visas, the adverse effects of the policy change on the type of FSU immigrants coming to the United States were minor and short-lived As early as 1992, the gaps in the educational levels between FSU immigrants coming to Israel and to the United States returned to their pre-1989 levels, and the differences in earnings assimilation of post-1989 immigrants in the United States and Israel are similar to the differences detected in the 1980s.     

Foreign and undocumented workers in California agriculture

In November 1986, the United States Congress passed the most sweeping reform of federal immigration laws in more than two decades. The major objective of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 is to curtail the flow of illegal immigrants into the United States. But the Act contains controversial provisions to assure agricultural producers who rely most heavily on illegal immigrants to harvest perishable crops that they will not suffer unfairly from changes in U.S. immigration laws. These special provisions for agriculture rest on two assumptions that heretofore have received little attention from researchers: (1) that agriculture now relies heavily on undocumented workers to harvest perishable crops, and (2) that growers hire undocumented labor because legal farmworkers are not available to work at wages growers can afford to pay. This paper presents preliminary findings from a study of the role of undocumented workers in California agriculture. The findings cast some doubt on the assumptions that undocumented workers are employed mostly in harvesting perishable crops and that growers hire illegal aliens because legal workers are not available. The analysis focuses on California because one-half of all undocumented immigrants in the United States are believed to live in this state.     

Interior Immigration Enforcement and Political Participation of U.S. Citizens in Mixed-Status Households

The 2000s have witnessed an expansion of interior immigration enforcement in the United States. At the same time, the country has experienced a major demographic transformation, with the number of U.S. citizens living in mixed-status households—that is, households where at least one family member is an unauthorized migrant—reaching 16 million. U.S. citizens living in mixed-status households are personally connected to the struggles experienced by their unauthorized family members. For them, immigration policy is likely to shape their current and future voting behavior. Using data from the 2002–2014 Current Population Survey Voting and Registration Supplements, we examine whether intensified immigration enforcement has affected the political engagement of U.S. citizens living in mixed-status households. We find that immigration enforcement has chilled their electoral participation by lowering their propensity to register by 5 %; however, it has not visibly affected their voting propensity among those registered. Importantly, their lower voting registration likelihood does not seem to reflect indifference for community and public matters, given that it has been accompanied by greater involvement in civic forms of political participation, such as volunteering. Understanding how immigration policy affects the political participation of a fast-growing segment of the electorate is imperative because they will inevitably constitute a rapidly rising political force in future elections.     

The effect of immigration on the labor market performance of native-born workers: some evidence for Spain

This paper provides an approximation to the labor market effects of immigrants in Spain, a country where labor market institutions and immigration policy exhibit some peculiarities, during the second half of the 1990s, the period in which immigration flows accelerated. By using alternative data sets, we estimate both the impact of legal and total immigration flows on the employment rates and wages of native workers, accounting for the possible occupational and geographical mobility of immigrants and native-born workers. Using different samples and estimation procedures, we have not found a significant negative effect of immigration on either the employment rates or wages of native workers.

The U.S. federal effort in developing social indicators

As an introduction to this issue, some historical background of the effort of the U.S. Federal goverment in tracking social trends and making use of social indicators is reviewed. The 1934 study, Recent Social Trends in the United States, and the monographs analyzing demographic trends sponsored by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, are seen as antecedents to the current support accorded what has become a kind of triennial Social Indicators publications. The three subject-matter social indicators volumes of the Federal government — Science Indicators, The Condition of Education and Health: U.S.A. — are reviewed in this volume, and the programs of several other agencies, the Bureau. etc., to develop and communicate social indicators are discussed. The forecast for the future of social indicators includes the development of social accounts, the improvement of models that have criterion social indicators as the dependent variable, and the appreciation of the statistical system to provide the information needed for improved monitorship and understanding. These are seen as joint endeavors of the public and private sectors.     

Labor market effects of immigration in the United States and Europe: substitution vs. complementarity

This paper examines the impact of immigrants on the income of various groups of resident workers in the United States and Europe. Our approach features the use of a production technology incorporating education, experience, and unskilled labor as inputs. This contrasts with the assumption used in earlier studies that native-born and immigrant labor are distinct inputs into production. We find that in both United States and European production, education, unskilled labor and experience are complementary inputs. Based on these results, simulations of the impact of immigration on residents are carried out. The absolute magnitude of these effects is found to be very small.This paper was presented at the Centre for Economic Policy Research Workshop, The Economics of International Migration: Econometric Evidence, February 26 and 27, 1993, Konstanz, Germany. We benefitted from the discussion at the conference and, particularly, the comments of Anton Muscatelli. We thank three referees and the managing editor of this journal for their suggestions. We also thank Selig Sechzer for his significant contributions to the empirical analysis in this paper. Ira Gang's work was partially supported by the Rutgers University Research Council.     

American immigration policy and population]

The author describes the development of the population of the United States from independence to the present day in terms of its immigration history and related policies. Consideration is given to the existence of policies that discriminated against immigration by certain racial groups, and these are contrasted with U.S. internal migration policies, which always allowed unrestricted fertility and migration.     

The Demand for Immigration to the United States

This paper examines trends and cross-national variation in the active demand for immigration to the United States in the period of 1984–1993, using data from the Visa Office and various other sources. The analysis is restricted to legal immigration in numerically limited categories. The results show that the total number of active immigrant visa applicants steadily increased in the aggregate and in each of the preference categories. Moreover, the active demand for immigration was highly skewed, with the majority of applications coming from a dozen countries: Mexico, the Philippines, India, mainland China, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Jamaica, Hong Kong, and Pakistan. Most of these highly-backlogged countries displayed a significant increase in the growth rate of demand for immigration. The paper also shows a substantial cross-national variation in the active demand for immigration and explores its structural determinants. The regression results indicate that the level of economic development in sending countries and U.S. economic and cultural relations with sending countries play important roles in the determination process. Policy implications of the findings are also discussed.     

The impact of U.S. immigration upon internal migration

The potential adverse effect of immigrants on job opportunities for natives continues to influence debate about immigration policy in the United States. Many studies have examined wage and employment outcomes; by contrast, we examine internal migration. We ask whether or not natives are more likely to depart from or less likely to move to metropolitan areas with high concentrations of immigrants. After controlling for other influences on migration, we find that metropolitan areas with higher concentrations of immigrants have only slightly lower rates of inmigration of natives. Such metropolitan areas also exhibit slightly lower rates of out-migration, contrary to expectation. These results suggest that the effect of immigrants on labor market redistribution of natives is modest.Research reported here was supported by a grant from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. We would like to thank Kofi Benefo for helpful comments.     

Unintended consequences of US immigration policy: explaining the post-1965 surge from Latin America

Immigration reforms in the United States initiated in the 1960s are widely thought to have opened the door to mass immigration from Asia and Latin America by eliminating past discriminatory policies. While this may be true for Asians, it is not the case for Latin Americans, who faced more restrictions to legal migration after 1965 than before. The boom in Latin American migration occurred in spite of rather than because of changes in US immigration law. In this article we describe how restrictions placed on the legal entry of Latin Americans, and especially Mexicans, set off a chain of events that in the ensuing decades had the paradoxical effect of producing more rather than fewer Latino immigrants. We offer an explanation for how and why Latinos in the United States, in just 40 years, increased from 9.6 million people and 5 percent of the population to 51 million people and 16 percent of the population, and why so many are now present without authorization.     

International migration of professionals

Abstract Using chiefly data published by the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service this paper presents a statistical summary of the trends in professional immigration into the United States. The proportion of immigrants who are professionals has been steadily increasing during recent decades, and change in immigration laws produced a sharper increase since 1965. The second trend of importance is the increasing proportion of professional immigrants who come from the less developed nations of the world. The effects of immigration on American science and medicine are discussed. Important benefits appear to have accrued to the U.S. The effects on the countries of origin are less beneficial. Finally, the reasons behind the migration of professionals are discussed.     

U.S. foreign economic policy and illegal immigration

It is often suggested that the most effective policy for the United States, if it wishes to curtail illegal immigration from nearby countries, is to manipulate foreign economic instruments to support their economic development. The Reagan administration's Caribbean Basin Initiative is responsive to this approach in its proposals for increased aid and trade and tax preferences for beneficiary countries. Analysis of U.S. trade, investment, and aid relations with migrant-sending countries leads to the conclusion that these preferences could have a marginal impact on job creation in these countries, but there is no assurance that a modest rise in economic opportunity will lead to a decrease in emigration in the foreseeable future. In addition, preferential trade and tax treatment for some countries involves a departure from U.S. policy and would lead to a clamor for equal treatment by other countries.