A duration analysis of congressional widows’ careers

The extensive congressional politics literature on House member retirement has yet to consider an important and unique subgroup of members – congressional widows. Using a semi-parametric Cox Model, this paper examines the duration of widows’ careers in the United States House of Representatives. Of particular concern are the relationships between years in office and age, education, region, prior political experience, committee positions, career ceilings, majority/minority status, and majority party size. We find that age, region, and majority party size are most relevant to understanding lengths of widows’ careers. In doing so, we contribute to the literature on political widows, gender in politics, as well as more general scholarship centered on congressional careers.     

Interest group influence on the ideological orientations of local party activists

This paper uses a national survey of local Democratic and Republican Party officials to determine the extent to which interest group attempts to develop a formal organizational presence within the grassroots Democratic and Republican parties might push the parties towards taking more ideologically extreme positions. It is hypothesized that members of predominantly Democratic and Republican groups will be more ideologically extreme than other local party officials. The survey results provide support for the hypothesis. Group-influenced party activists tend to be more ideologically extreme than other party officials. However, while a large percentage of Democratic and Republican local party officials are members of interest groups, only a relatively small percentage reported being recruited to party activism through their group involvement. The survey provides little support for the thesis that interest groups have systematically tried to “take over” grassroots party organizations.     

Parties,Institutional Control,and Trust in Government*

Objectives. Partisanship should affect evaluations of Congress just as it affects evaluations of the president, and these institutional evaluations should affect political trust. We argue that the relationship between partisanship and trust is dependent on partisan control of Congress and that much of party identification's influence on trust occurs indirectly through approval of governmental institutions. Methods. Using data collected before and after the 2002 congressional elections by the Center for Survey Research and Analysis at the University of Connecticut, we examine changes in frequency distributions and mean values for trust and institutional approval. We use multivariate regression models and a path model to estimate the causes of political trust and self‐perceived change in trust. Results. We find evidence that party control of government and party identification are important in explaining trust and institutional approval. The Republican takeover of the Senate led Republicans to evaluate the Senate more favorably and to become more trusting of the government, while having the opposite effect on Democrats. Conclusions. The changes in approval and trust resulting from the 2002 elections suggest that at least some segment of the population is cognizant of changes in the political environment and updates its views of government when the political environment changes.     

Kids Voting and Political Knowledge: Narrowing Gaps,Informing Votes*

Objectives. Kids Voting USA is a program designed to educate schoolchildren about the democratic process and foster their political socialization. This article set out to explore the consequences of the Kids Voting program for political knowledge, knowledge gaps, and attitude‐behavior consistency. Methods. A sample of seventh and eighth graders in an urban school district were surveyed before (N=385) and shortly after (N=648) the 2000 general election. Results. Kids Voting exposure was positively related to political knowledge at Time 2 even after controlling for demographics, scholastic achievement, and attention to campaign news. There was no evidence that knowledge gaps widened between Time 1 and 2; in fact, African Americans and those with low initial knowledge gained the most. As political knowledge increased, party ID and issue attitudes became more predictive of candidate preference. Kids Voting exposure, too, was positively related to consistency between party ID and candidate preference, a relationship that was partially mediated by political knowledge. Conclusions. Political knowledge among these adolescents appeared to function much the way it does in adults: it equipped them to make political decisions that better reflected their attitudes. Kids Voting seems to contribute to this process, through knowledge and perhaps other avenues, without increasing knowledge gaps.     

Everyday Racism as Predictor of Political Racism in Flemish Belgium

Two aspects of research on racism in Flanders (Belgium) are discussed in this article based on results from large-scale surveys between 1991 and 2003. The first relates to the (negative) attitudes of the majority toward foreigners (everyday racism) . The second relates to the vote for an extreme right-wing political party that emphasizes anti-immigrant viewpoints in its political program and propaganda (political racism) . Our main research question is how both forms of racism are related. First, theories to explain political racism are reviewed. Some theories suggest an extreme right-wing vote to be motivated by a content-related agreement with (part of) the program of these parties (e.g., racism, nationalism, or authoritarianism). Other theories suggest that this vote represents an antipolitical protest vote. From these theories, hypotheses are derived regarding the background characteristics and attitudes that are associated with an extreme right-wing vote (e.g., the Vlaams Blok). These hypotheses are tested using data from election research in 1991, 1999, and 2003. The results suggest that the vote for the party Vlaams Blok is a rational vote. Of all theories, the theory suggesting that everyday racism plays a prominent role received most support. Everyday racism thus motivates political racism in the Flemish part of Belgium.     

网络极端情绪人群的类型及其政治与社会意涵——基于中国网络社会心态调查数据（2014）的实证研究

本文以社会化媒体的用户为中心,以用户的网络极端情绪表达为切入点,考察中国社会化媒体空间中的群体类型,并探讨各群体的客观背景特征,以及各群体的政治态度和网络表达行动。对中国网络社会心态调查数据（2014）的潜类分析表明,我们可以根据微博用户表达的极端情绪将其划分为“酱油众”“冷漠族”“铁血爱国派”“愤世嫉俗派”和“民粹主义者”五类群体。其中,“民粹主义者”具有一定的“草根左派”色彩,“铁血爱国派”具有某种“亲体制左派”的色彩,“冷漠族”则倾向于“温和右派”,“愤世嫉俗派”倾向于“激进右派”。就政治态度而言,“愤世嫉俗派”对体制的态度最为负面,“民粹主义者”对政府的信任度最低,而“铁血爱国派”对体制的态度最为正面,对政府的信任度最高。就网络行动而言,“民粹主义者”使用网络暴力和参与在线抗议的可能性都最高,其次是“愤世嫉俗派”和“铁血爱国派”。文章最后指出,对互联网用户极端情绪的研究是理解中国网络社会的重要窗口。     

Partisan Gerrymandering and the Voting Rights Act*

Objective. The goal of the study is to empirically assess the extent of partisan and incumbent gerrymandering in the 2000 congressional redistricting. Critics of congressional redistricting have argued that recent partisan gerrymandering severely undermines electoral competitiveness to the point of violating constitutional equal protection standards. Method. We first analyze the legal precedents and arguments central to the contemporary redistricting debate. We then analyze district‐level data measuring the change in a congressional incumbent's presidential party vote share before and after the 2000 redistricting. We conduct regression analyses that test for partisan and incumbent gerrymandering effects with an eye toward noting implications for the Voting Rights Act, particularly majority‐minority districting. Results. We find that recent redistricting significantly contributed to a further decline in electoral competitiveness; however, most of this decline in competitiveness came through incumbency protection, not partisan gerrymandering. Majority‐minority districts lost about 5 percent incumbent party vote share, though only 3 percent in southern states. Conclusion. Given these results, we conclude that the logic of partisan gerrymandering is at variance with the mandate of racial redistricting. One effect of establishing a strict judicial standard limiting statewide partisan biases would be to restrict states' capacity to draw majority‐minority districts.     

Disentangling Constituency and Legislator Effects in Legislative Representation: Black Legislators or Black Districts?*

Objective. Does the race of a legislator or does the black population of a district best predict legislative roll‐call voting in the interests of African Americans? Due to methodological limitations, no prior study has found that both the race of the legislator and the black district population are significant predictors of congressional roll‐call voting. Drawing on post Shaw v. Reno/Miller v. Johnson congressional districts (with greater data variance), I examine the effect of these two racial representation variables on roll‐call voting in the 104th–106th Congresses. Methods. Linear regression with random effects is employed in two statistical models. Results. Even when the black district population and party are considered, the presence of an African‐American legislator leads to greater substantive representation of black constituents. Conclusion. Districting plans that maximize the election of black legislators and Democrats are the most important for the aggregate enhancement of liberal voting in Congress, while districting plans that maximize black district populations and Democrats are the most important for the aggregate enhancement of civil rights voting records in Congress.     

Does Radical Partisan Politics Affect National Income Distributions? Congressional Polarization and Income Inequality in the United States, 1913–2008*

Recent research indicates that political polarization in Congress and income inequality share a closely linked positive association. But virtually no studies examine the direction of influence between these variables as it is assumed that income inequality causes political polarization. The major purpose of this investigation is to examine the temporal causal ordering of these variables. Methods. This study constructs a time series national‐level data set with information for the years 1913 to 2008. Vector autoregression and granger causality tests are utilized to explore the temporal causal ordering of congressional polarization and the income share of the top 0.1, 1.0, 5.0, and 10.0 percent of earners in the United States. Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity regressions are also employed to assess the strength of the association between congressional polarization and top incomes net of relevant control variables. Results. The findings indicate that the past values of congressional polarization are better predictors of top income shares than vice versa. The results also demonstrate that polarization in the House of Representatives produces a more consistent and robust connection with top incomes than polarization in the Senate. Lastly, congressional polarization only produces robust associations with the income share of the top 0.1 and 1.0 percent of earners but not for the top 5.0 and 10.0 percent. Conclusion. While the Senate possesses more powerful negative agenda control procedures to stifle the legislative processes vis‐à‐vis the House, it is polarization in the latter that returns the more robust associations with income inequality.     

Strategic and Sincere Voting in a One‐Sided Election: The Canadian Federal Election of 1997*

Objective. We are interested in whether and how voters make strategic decisions in a race that is, according to the polls, expected to be very one sided. Looking specifically at the choices available to ideologically right‐of‐center voters in the 1997 Canadian federal election, we argue that strategic considerations will be filtered by voters' assessments of the competitiveness of the race both locally and nationally. Methods. We estimate logistic regression models measuring support for the two right‐of‐center Canadian political parties. Our models focus on the relationship between assessments of district‐ and national‐level party prospects on voting for the Progressive Conservative Party. Results. We find that voters who consider the race competitive emphasize district‐level data in their strategic calculations. However, those who consider the election to be all but over look more closely at national‐level concerns when deciding which right‐wing party to support. Conclusions. We conclude that earlier understandings of tactical voting should be updated to take into consideration the circumstances under which voters will use national‐level evaluations of relative party viability in casting their ballots.     

Determinants of presidents’ legislative support in the House, 1949–1995

This paper has several purposes. First, it illustrates the changing nature of research on presidential–congressional relations. In general, scholarship has moved away from viewing the president as the dominant actor in the relationship, toward one of congressional influence, and ultimately toward emphasizing more equal power sharing between the two institutions. Second, we discuss our use of the most widely used measures of such relationships, presidents’ legislative support and success and our rationale for choosing the former. Third, we introduce three broad environments of presidential–congressional relations in order to explain such support from what we call a multiple perspectives approach. We find that variables from each of the three environments are important in explaining presidential support in the House. Fourth, we control for policy areas using the two presidencies typology and observe significant differences in support by domestic and foreign policy. Our multivariate two stage least squares (2SLS) analysis explains considerable variance in support across all three models. Finally, we explicate how our approach improves our understanding of this important presidential–congressional interaction.     

Occupational differences and the division of labor in political party activities

Robert Dahl (1961) clearly identifies a division of labor within political associations that allows the organization to perform its functions in a “reliable” and “skillful” manner. According to Dahl, the division of labor is facilitated by an occupational based recruitment of party “leaders” and “subleaders”. This article examines such a division of labor in political parties activities at both the grassroots and convention levels. We find strong evidence for a division of labor in party activities at both levels. However, our findings provide only tenuous evidence for occupation based differences among those participating in these two distinct types of party activities.     

Ideological Extremism and Public Participation*

Objectives. Does aggregate ideological extremism reduce public participation? Does participation in governance processes fall when the social environment shifts to the extreme left or the extreme right of the political spectrum? Our main hypothesis is that the aggregate ideological orientation of the social environment constrains volunteerism in social regulatory programs. Methods. We test our hypothesis using a panel tobit analysis of data from the federal Long‐Term Care Ombudsman Program. Results. Our model of public participation (expressed as volunteerism) shows that participation expands when the ideological position of a state's citizens is at the extreme left or right of the political continuum. We show the differential effects of two types of aggregate ideological orientation: of citizens and their political leaders. We further find that participation is greatest in states with extremely liberal citizen ideological positions. Conclusions. These findings paint a more complex picture of the effect of extremism in the social environment on public participation measured as production volunteerism. In sum, public participation is greatest when the social environment is ideologically polarized, and social regulation is strongest when volunteerism is greatest.     

Divided Loyalties? Understanding Variation in Latino Attitudes Toward Immigration*

Objective. In this article, we develop and test a model of competing theoretical explanations of Latino attitudes toward immigration; specifically examining their policy preferences on legal immigration, illegal immigration, and a proposed policy for dealing with illegal immigrants. We also consider whether Latino attitudes toward legal and illegal immigration are related and comprise a single coherent structure. Method. Using data from a 2004 national survey of Latinos, we perform regression, logit, and ordered logit analyses to examine the determinants of Latino attitudes toward immigration. Results. We highlight three important findings. First, our results demonstrate “within‐group” differences in immigration attitudes among Latinos, based on both national origin and generational status; we find that Mexicans are more pro‐immigration than Latinos from other countries and that foreign‐born Latinos have much more positive attitudes about immigration than second‐generation and third‐generation Latinos. Second, we find that Latino support for various aspects of immigration is primarily a function of ethnic and linguistic identity and attachment to American culture, with self‐interest, contextual variables, and political and demographic attributes playing a smaller, more specialized role. Finally, we demonstrate that Latino attitudes toward legal and illegal immigration are highly interrelated. Conclusion. There is a coherent structure underlying Latino attitudes toward legal immigration, illegal immigration, and a policy option for dealing with illegal immigrants. Our tests of competing theoretical approaches reveal the importance of national origin and ethnic attachment and acculturation in explaining differences among Latinos on their attitudes toward immigration.     

Ethnic concerns and Latino party identification

The accelerated growth of the Latino population in the United States has made Latinos a coveted addition to each major political party's base. In this paper we examine the influence of ethnic concerns on the party identification of Latinos in the U.S. In contrast to previous studies, we account for Latinos’ perceptions of the political parties’ concern for their ethnic interests, allowing such interests to be self-defined. In a multinomial logit analysis of pooled data from three surveys of Latinos taken in 1999, 2004, and 2006, we find such perceptions do affect Latino partisanship, along with variables such as nativity and country of origin or ancestry. We also find a tendency toward independence among Latinos. Finally, we find movement toward the Democratic Party in 2004, once ethnic concerns are taken into account. One implication of the findings is that the party that can best persuade Latinos of their concern for their interests is the party most likely to gain their loyalties; indeed, the parties must earn those loyalties.     

Free trade and cheap theatre: sources of politics for the nineteenth-century London poor

The very poor and unskilled workers of mid-nineteenth-century London – often termed the ‘casual poor’ due to their irregularity of employment – have been generally portrayed as entirely apolitical, and to have exhibited purely mob responses to the issues of the day. This article suggests that we have not properly understood or ‘read’ the evidence we have of the attitudes towards politics of these people, and that we have assessed their actions purely within the framework of our own understandings. In particular, their views about Chartism, the major working-class political movement of the period, have been a key to how they have been perceived. But our understanding of these views has been distorted by what appeared to be their lack of knowledge of the ‘real’ aims of the movement. Instead, if we look at other types of evidence, such as from the theatre, we can find clues as to how their understandings of such conflicts may simply have been different, and so be able to explain in much more rational terms the actions and beliefs of this historically inarticulate group.     

Discrimination that Travels: How Ethnicity Affects Party Identification for Southeast Asian Immigrants*

Objectives. The critical importance of party identification as a determinant of vote choice is well documented. Given the increasing diversity of the population in the United States, it is critical that we understand the process of socialization into the political system for immigrant groups. It is especially important that we should be able to distinguish differences in socialization within a group. Methods. Using a framework developed by Cain, Kiewiet, and Uhlaner (1991) , we use newly available data to test their assertions about the development of party identification in Asian‐American immigrants. Results. Looking at a sample of foreign‐born Asian Americans, we find that critical differences can exist within groups. Conclusions. The differences within groups have an important effect on the development of party identification for those immigrants.     

Asian‐Pacific‐American Partisanship: Dynamics of Partisan and Nonpartisan Identities*

Objectives. This article seeks to understand the development of partisanship among Asian Americans since a significant portion do not choose either major party affiliation, but select an independent or a truly nonpartisan status. With a rapidly growing Asian‐American population, examining its pattern for both partisan and nonpartisan identification has been ignored. This research took a developmental process in which acquisition of any partisan affiliation/identification is a critical juncture for Asian‐American political incorporation. Therefore, considering contributing factors that affect the acquisition of any partisan affiliation as a precursor to specific Asian‐American partisan affiliation/behaviors is our direction. Methods. Using a logistical regression model and data from the Pilot National Asian American Political Survey, a category of variables, including sociodemographic, Asian‐American subgroup status, U.S. political orientations and attitudes, and experiences with U.S. society, are used to understand a partisan and nonpartisan affiliation. Results. This study reveals that aspects of socioeconomic status, political attitudes, and immigrant experiences are important, in varying degrees (especially Asian subgroup status) to understand partisan acquisition for Asian Americans. More so, Asian‐American subgroups, persons with lower educational and income levels, and participants in the labor force are less likely to assume a partisan affiliation. Levels of interest in U.S. politics and length of time in the United States do contribute to a partisan affiliation. Conclusions. Viewing partisan affiliation as a developmental process is an important research avenue to approach the Asian‐American community. The inclusion of not only sociodemographic variables, but experiences and evaluation of the U.S. political system, as well as recognizing the political “culture” of Asian‐American subgroups, provides a more complete understanding of the partisan acquisition process.     

政党软力量的系统分析

政党软力量与政党硬力量既有共性又有区别。共性在于二者都是政党对其他社会个体、团体施以影响的一种能力、一种方式;区别在于二者有不同的力量来源,且在性质、方式、资源上彼此迥异。政党软力量功能的发挥,寓于政党价值观念、行为方式以及政策主张等政党因素功能的发挥之中,是政党应对社会政治生态变革挑战的利器,可以巩固政党的社会基础,改善政党形象。政党软力量观是指政党对于自身软力量的基本态度、观点及总体认识。正确认识并准确把握“政党软力量观”的科学内涵应着重把握三方面内容：一是政党对于政党软力量功能的基本认识;二是政党软力量在政党力量体系中的地位;三是政党文化的价值取向。     

State political culture and support for Obama in the 2008 Democratic presidential primaries

Though ideologically similar, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton appealed to different types of voters in the 2008 Democratic presidential primaries and demographically the candidates’ support varied considerably. Relative to the demographics of the primary electorates, however, we find that state political culture played an outsized role in determining which candidate emerged victorious in a particular state. When the size of demographic groups in the 2008 Democratic primaries are utilized in ordinary least squares regression models as independent variables with state political characteristics and Daniel Elazar's state political culture typology, political culture proves to be an important determinant of the level of support given to Obama in a state. States that are characterized by a more moralistic political culture are more likely to have given Obama a greater share of the primary vote and states that are characterized by a more traditionalistic or individualistic culture were less likely to support Obama in the 2008 Democratic primaries.