The impact of social heterogeneity and commodity price shocks on civil conflicts

Do exogenous economic shocks promote civil conflicts directly? Do they affect all the societies alike? The current approach presents a large sample panel data evidence not only on the effect of commodity export price shocks on conflict incidence, rather than onsets, but also on the joint impact of both ethnic and religious polarization and fractionalization on political instability. In this regard, we find out that in ethnically polarized societies, the commodity export price shocks increase violence. Nonetheless, in ethnically and religiously fractionalized societies (as well as religiously polarized), the effect of commodity export price shocks on civil conflicts depends on the type of income shocks and category of commodity. These findings contribute to the existing literature by illuminating the compound effect of both income shocks and social diversity on intrastate conflicts.     

Remittances,financial development and poverty reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for post-COVID-19 macroeconomic policies

To design and implement effective post-COVID-19 macroeconomics policies to tackle poverty in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), policymakers need to understand the factors shaping poverty in the region. This paper investigates the effect of international remittances and financial development on poverty alleviation in 44 sub-Saharan African SSA countries from 2010 to 2019. The instrumental variable generalised method of moment technique results indicated that while remittances increase poverty, financial development contributes significantly to poverty reduction. The results consistently revealed that remittances increase both male and female poverty rates, while financial development significantly reduces male and female poverty rates. Other factors such as economic growth, foreign direct investment, and trade openness contributed significantly to reducing poverty. In contrast, government expenditure and foreign aid were found to increase poverty rate in SSA. These results are robust to the Lewbel two-stage least squares estimator. The practical implications of these findings for post-COVID-19 macroeconomic policies in SSA are discussed.     

Democracy Out of Anarchy: The Prospects for Post‐Civil‐War Democracy*

Objective. This study explores the effects of civil war outcome on post‐civil‐war democratization. We employ an expected utility model to argue that the attributes of the civil war that lead to balanced power relations between the warring parties lead to higher levels of postconflict democracy. Methods. We estimate a series of OLS regression models with change in the level of democracy (from the prewar level to five and ten years after the conflict ended) as the dependent variable. Results. Civil wars that end in negotiated settlements are more likely to experience higher levels of democratization than civil wars that end in military victory by either side. Identity‐based conflicts lead to lower levels of democratization while previous democratic experience seems to decrease post‐civil‐war democratization. We find no support for the argument that high war costs and U.N. peace‐keeping forces produce higher levels of democracy. Conclusions. Civil war may lead to more inclusive polities if it serves to even the balance of power between contending groups in the nation. Power balance is more likely to bring about more democratic polities, especially where power sharing is formalized in a negotiated settlement.     

Major arms imports and the onset of civil and ethnic wars in the postcolonial world, 1956–1998: A preliminary reassessment

This study examines the effects of states’ major arms imports from major powers on the likelihood of civil and ethnic wars in the postcolonial world. Focusing on civil and ethnic wars, respectively, in postcolonial states from 1956 through 1998, this investigation reveals that major arms imports from major powers have no statistically significant effect on either civil or ethnic war onset, considering political, economic, demographic, and geographic factors. The results also demonstrate that there are some different causal mechanisms between the onset of civil and ethnic wars. Finally, this article discusses policy implications and suggests some directions of the further research.     

It Takes Two for a Culture War

This article examines the tense relations between religious and secular in Israel and the prospects for what has been described by different observers as a “culture war.” Specifically, the consequences and implication of the challenges to church‐state arrangements by social, economic, and demographic changes, and growing religious‐secular tensions are studied. The empirical investigation of these issues relies on a survey (n = 508) of a representative, random sample of the adult Jewish population in Israel. Research findings indicate that the culture war scenario exaggerates the actual state of affairs because secularism in Israel is lacking coherence and commitment and alternatives that circumvent conflict are available. Rather than a culture war between the religious and secular camps in Israel, different battles are taking place, waged in different realms with different constituencies, tactics, strategies, and levels of commitment whose combined outcome is yet to be determined.     

中国与东盟的经贸关系:2006年回顾暨2007年展望

回顾2006年在中国和东盟双方政治互信进一步加强,战略伙伴关系深入发展背景下,双方经贸关系发展所取得的主要成果,对2007年可能影响双方经贸关系的若干因素作了分析和判断。在此基础上,对2007年双方经贸关系的走向作了展望,指出在东亚经济合作出现新机遇和世界及东亚地区经济继续保持快速增长情况下,中国和东盟经贸关系将快步向前发展。     

Demise of the Developmental State? Implications for Social Policy Development in Hong Kong

This paper argues that Hong Kong is now at the crossroads of its journey towards social policy development. While economic development still seems to be the unwavering objective of the Hong Kong government, the demand for democracy and social development can no longer be ignored because of a strong civil society fostered by economic success. The current state of affairs provides a window of opportunity for the Hong Kong government to strengthen its legitimacy through the development of social policy and to promote social harmony through inclusivity in social welfare. The findings from the present empirical survey conducted by the Hong Kong Institute of Asia‐Pacific Studies (HKIAPS) in 2010 demonstrate that Hong Kong people identified social harmony as the main direction for social development, closely followed by economic development, and democracy and freedom. Respondents who chose social harmony as the main goal of social development were more likely to take a step back and find common ground when fighting for their own rights or the rights of society. This paper concludes that these findings reflect the crucial importance of taking social harmony into consideration in the social policy development process.     

Variability in the Inter‐group Attitudes of White Children: What We Can Learn from Their Ethnic Identity Labels

The current study examined the ethnic identity of White (N = 120), Latino (N = 87), and African‐American (N = 65) children and early adolescents (aged = 9–14 years), with an emphasis on whether the specific ethnic label White children used to describe themselves might reflect differences in their inter‐group attitudes and whether those differences mirror group differences between White children and children in ethnic minority groups. Results indicated that White children who identified with a minority label (i.e., White biracial, hyphenated American, ethnic/cultural/religious label) had more positive ethnic identities, were more aware of discrimination, and were less likely to show biases in their perceived similarity to in‐group and out‐group peers than youth who identified as White or American. In many instances, White children who identified with a minority label did not differ from ethnic minority youth. In addition, although all participants were more positive about their ethnic in‐group than out‐groups, children who identified their ethnicity as American were less positive about out‐groups relative to other children. Taken together, the findings indicate that children's self‐chosen ethnic identity is as important as their ascribed ethnic or racial identity in predicting their inter‐group attitudes.     

Religion and Public Opinion about Same‐Sex Marriage*

Objective. The goal of this article is to analyze the relationship between religion, measured in terms of religious affiliation and religiosity, and public opinion about same‐sex marriage, civil unions, and a federal constitutional amendment that would prohibit gay marriage. Methods. We use logistic regression with calculated standardized coefficients to analyze data from a nationally representative survey of 1,610 respondents conducted in March–April 2004. Results. Religious variables perform better than demographic measures in models of attitudes about same‐sex unions. Non‐Protestants are much more likely to support same‐sex unions than are Protestants, and individuals with conservative attitudes toward morality and secularism and (to a lesser extent) those who participate actively in religious life are more likely to oppose such unions. On the whole, religious variables play a weaker role in predicting support for a constitutional amendment to prevent gay marriage than they do in predicting attitudes toward same‐sex unions. Conclusions. Religious variables play powerful roles in structuring attitudes about same‐sex unions. Moreover, homosexuality appears to be a major component of the “moral values” discourse that is currently so popular in American politics.     

On the dynamic measurement of economic openness

The empirical relationship between economic openness and economic performance is much debated in the economic literature. No definitive conclusions seem to be reached yet, part of the problem being the very measurement of economic openness of a national economy. In their article in the Journal of Policy Modeling, Ruíz Estrada & Yap (2006) propose a new method to measure economic openness and to empirically assess the openness–growth nexus as a new tool for policy-makers: the Openness Growth Monitoring Model (OGM-Model). The authors claim: (i) that their method is different from and more flexible than existing empirical methods, (ii) that higher levels of openness do not lead to income growth, and (iii) that customs unions perform better than free trade areas. This short article challenges the three claims of the authors.     

知识产权的多元属性及研究范式

在诸多民事权利制度中,知识产权具备更多科技含量和知识要素。一般认为：著作权发生在文化创作领域,与文化创新、文化产业息息相关;专利权产生于技术应用领域,与科技创新、科技产业紧密相连;商标权则运作于工商经营领域,涉及商品销售、市场贸易等诸多问题。在知识经济的时代条件下,知识产权的制度实施效果,关系到一国的经济发展、科技进步、文化与教育的繁荣;而在经济全球化的国际背景中,知识产权保护又事关国际政治、国际经贸、国际文化与科技的交流和合作。这就决定了,从民法学理论出发研究知识产权属性,当是应有之义;而结合人权理论、经济学、管理学以及政策科学,多视角、全方位来考察知识产权功能,亦非常必要。这有助于在不同学科层面揭示知识产权的基本蕴意,保持知识产权研究中的问题导向及方法的开放性。     

The potential of asset‐based development strategies for poverty alleviation in Sub‐Saharan Africa

Ssewamala FM, Sperber, ES, Zimmerman JM, Karimli L. The potential of asset‐based development strategies for poverty alleviation in Sub‐Saharan Africa Int J Soc Welfare 2010: 19: 433–443 © 2010 The Author(s), Journal compilation © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and International Journal of Social Welfare. This article explores the potential of a relatively new approach to social development as a poverty alleviation strategy in Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA): asset‐based development, an integrated approach to human, social, and economic capital formation. It considers the theoretical framework guiding asset‐based development and the accompanying set of programmatic and policy‐level tools for poverty alleviation in SSA. After considering the recent historical and theoretical contexts of the approach, the authors examine the potential of asset‐based development programs, specifically savings‐led microfinance programs for the poor, to engender development and, more specifically, poverty alleviation in the region. Major challenges and directions for future research are presented.     

The Value of the WTO

Recent developments in global trade include actions by major global traders that lie outside the norms of behaviour of the World Trade Organization (WTO) over the last 20 years. Member frustrations with the slow pace of negotiations and concerns about strategies and behaviours of other members approaches to trade and economic development have created unprecedented stresses on a system of rules and commitments that have long encouraged global trade growth and increased economic integration. In this paper we explore the value of the multilateral trading system, particularly the WTO, and emphasize that the value goes well beyond crucial achievements such as tariff reductions and the prevention of a global trade war, but is also found in increased certainty and transparency. The WTO reduces uncertainty about trade policy thus promoting trade and investment. Membership of the WTO locks in beneficial reform and has a public good nature also fostering trade with non-members. We discuss the importance of the WTO as a multilateral forum to negotiate rules on segments of trade expected to grow in the future such as services and digital trade. We describe how the history of negotiations in the WTO provides useful insights for negotiations on such future topics.     

Embedded Trade: A Third‐Party Effect*

Objectives. Previous work on trade, mostly from an economic perspective, assumes dyadic independence, and thus that trade can be explained by attributes of such dyads. We critique these contentions from the perspective of structural embeddedness, hypothesizing that sharing common third‐party trading partners encourages dyadic trade. Methods. We analyze international trade data of 78 countries in 1975 and 1996, using cross‐sectional and longitudinal regression. Results. Regression analyses support our hypothesis. A BIC analysis suggests that the structural embeddedness variables significantly improve the model fit. Conclusion. International exchange of commodities, like other social interactions, is shaped and constrained by structurally determined opportunities. Thus, an explanation of economic behavior, including trade, is not complete without reference to the triads in which a dyad is embedded.     

Social protection as a mechanism for family protection in sub‐Saharan Africa1

Mokomane Z. Social protection as a mechanism for family protection in sub‐Saharan Africa In sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA), the extended family has for generations been the basis for the sustenance of society, offering material, social, emotional and care‐giving support for its members in times of need and crisis. Over the years, however, this institution has been affected by demographic and socio‐economic transformations that have continued to take place in the region. This article illustrates how these changes have contributed to family circumstances that are characterised by economic fragility, debilitating poverty and weakened family support for household chores and care‐giving responsibilities. The article argues that the development and provision of more comprehensive social protection policies and programmes in SSA can help mitigate the impact of the changes on families and their members.     

Identity Politics Among Arab‐American Women*

Objective. Identity politics has dominated contemporary analyses of protest movements. Although multiple identities are commonplace, progress in delineating their empirical relationship has been slow. This article examines the relationships among ethnic and religious identities and feminist orientations among Arab‐American women, a group that bridges multiple cultural identities. The primary research question is whether ethnic and religious identities undermine feminism in this population or whether multiple identities are mutually supportive. Methods. Using data from a national mail survey of Arab‐American women, regression analyses examine the separate effects of various dimensions of ethnic and religious identity on women's feminist orientations. Results. Arab political identity is positively associated with feminism while religious and feminist identities are inversely related. The effects of ethnic cultural identity and Muslim affiliation are negligible. Conclusions. This study finds a complex pattern of relationships among multiple identities and underscores the underlying political dynamic linking group identities.     

北京经济贸易结构的优化选择

北京作为首都在各方面具有特殊优势,但也毫无例外地受到要素资源和发展的限制。扩大开放可以增加北京的发展资源,但如何更好地在资源要素数量不变的情况下将经济结构进行优化选择,通过结构性增长和国际贸易获得可持续发展是更为重要、更有价值的问题。本文认真研究了北京十六个主要产业的综合效率,提出了北京经济结构转换和新发展的战略。     

中国—东盟经济关系与地区整合的前景

中国与东南亚国家经济合作近年来呈现出较快发展的态势,正成为东亚地区整合的重要模式。这不仅体现在中国与东盟以及日本、韩国为预防东亚金融危机的再次发生,努力推进清迈倡议多边化的进程中,更体现在双方建立自由贸易区的过程中。中国与东盟的经济关系促进了双方关系在更多领域的发展,对构建东亚地区整合具有积极意义。中国对支持东盟在地区合作中发挥领导者作用的立场不仅稳定了双方关系,对构建东亚新秩序也具有积极意义。     

Ideology,Diversity, and Imprisonment: Considering the Influence of Local Politics on Racial and Ethnic Minority Incarceration Rates*

Objective. To test the influence of local (county) politics on minority incarceration rates. Methods. Data are collected at the county level in California to create a pooled cross‐sectional data set. OLS regression models predicting black, Hispanic, and white incarceration rates (in state prison) are used in the analysis. Results. Counties' ideological orientations and racial and ethnic contextual characteristics significantly impact minority incarceration rates. Greater ideological conservatism within counties is associated with higher rates (as a proportion of their population) of both black and Hispanic incarceration. Consistent with racial threat theory, results show counties with greater racial and ethnic diversity are more likely to incarcerate blacks and Hispanics. Tests for interaction effects indicate that greater county diversity decreases the punitive effects of ideological conservatism on minority incarceration. Conclusion. Political forces nested within states systematically shape how state government incarceration power is distributed across different racial and ethnic groups.     

Economic openness and welfare state attitudes: A multilevel study across 67 countries

This article extends previous studies investigating economic globalisation and the welfare state by examining individual attitudes, ranging from a preference for individual responsibility (economic individualism) to public demand for government intervention (social equality), across a large number of countries. It formulates different hypotheses about the direct and moderating effects of economic openness on these attitudes. The multilevel analysis, investigating data from 99,663 citizens of 67 countries, leads to the following two conclusions. First, economic openness is associated with a stronger preference for economic individualism and less demand for government intervention. Second, groups benefiting from globalisation and right‐wing voters have a stronger preference for economic individualism if the economic openness of their country is higher. Key Practitioner Message: ● The results show that some vulnerable groups demand more social protection in economically more open countries.