Who is early voting? An individual level examination

Objective. Early voting has been suggested as one method of increasing voter turnout. Allowing voters to cast their ballots during a longer time period may ameliorate some barriers to participation that exist. However, the question of whether early voting mobilizes previous nonvoting registrants or simply makes voting easier for those who would have participated anyway remains largely unanswered. Methods. We test these questions through the use of an individual level survey of voters in one Tennessee county. Using logistic regression, we consider the impact of demographic and attitudinal factors on the propensity to vote on election day or to use early voting. Results. We find marked differences between nonvoters and voters of either type, but we find few significant differences between early voters and traditional voters. We find little support for a mobilization effect and some evidence suggests that early voting merely conveniences those who would have voted anyway.     

Participation in Voluntary Youth‐Serving Associations and Early Adult Voting Behavior*

Objective. We investigate adolescent membership in voluntary associations and whether participation in these activities influences voting behavior during early adulthood. Methods. Weighted logistic regression models predicting membership in voluntary associations and voting behavior were estimated using data from the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988–1994 (NELS). Results. Our findings suggest that membership in voluntary associations varies by race and socioeconomic status (SES). In addition, membership in organizations historically rooted in moral development and civic socialization positively predict voter‐registration status and whether or not young adults participated in the first national election that they were eligible to vote in, but this relationship is moderated by both race and SES. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that a large proportion of U.S. teenagers still participate in community‐based programs, many of which foster later civic participation, but that all youth do not equally benefit from participation.     

Wired to mobilize: The effect of social networking messages on voter turnout

Recent scholarship has documented the effect of online social networking on political participation, a relationship hypothesized to be due to the generation of social capital. This paper tests the hypothesis that impersonal get-out-the-vote messages delivered via an online social network can increase voter turnout. Specifically, this study uses a field experiment of randomly assigned students from a large southern public university to test the effect of exposure to political messages via Facebook on the likelihood of them voting in the November 2010 election. The results indicate that encouragements to vote delivered through a social networking site can have substantively large effects on political behavior.     

Analysis of the turnout effects of vote by mail elections, 1980–2007

Proponents of vote by mail elections often argue that this type of election facilitates participation such that elevated levels of turnout occur. The research tests this assumption by analyzing 44 statewide elections (1980–2007) in the state of Oregon—the only state that conducts all of its elections by mail. The results of this analysis suggest that the vote by mail format is a major stimulus to voter participation in special elections in Oregon, while its effect on turnout in primary and general elections is positive, but fairly minimal.     

Democracy, Voting, and Disenfranchisement in the United States: A Social Psychological Perspective

Autonomy, engagement, and equality are defining features of democracy. Each of these features illuminates the challenge or incompleteness of our democratic aspirations: Autonomy or self-governance is too easily surrendered, disengagement is evident when roughly half of eligible adults choose not to vote, and the inequality of our political voices is manifest in many ways, including a self-perpetuating relationship between socioeconomic status and political participation. In addition to introducing the present collection of articles on the social psychology of voting, I argue that several concepts drawn from psychological measurement may contribute to making elections more fair. A signal detection framework may be used to assess the soundness of election reforms, with fraud and disenfranchisement conceptualized as two forms of error. The replacement of the Electoral College by a single aggregate national popular vote would not only be more democratic but would substantially reduce the likelihood of controversial outcomes in future presidential elections.     

The Geography of Support for Open‐Space Initiatives: A Case Study of New Jersey's 1998 Ballot Measure*

Objectives. By a two to one margin, New Jersey voters in 1998 approved a ballot measure authorizing a 10‐year, 1‐billion dollar open‐space acquisition program. This article's principal objectives are to investigate and explain the spatial character of that vote. Methods. Our methods consists of regression and principal components analyses; we use municipal‐level data to define statewide patterns of voter support and participation in relation to a series of socioeconomic, political, and environmental variables. Results. The analyses yielded two major findings: (1) support for the ballot measure was widespread, but exceptionally strong in the “wealth belt” area of north‐central New Jersey, and (2) voter participation, defined as those voting on the measure as a proportion of all who voted, lagged in the core urban areas. Conclusions. Our conclusions point critically to the importance of socioeconomic status, urban residence, and presence of existing open‐space regulations—as well as rapid changes in the overall sociopolitical landscape—in explaining voter behavior.     

Gender Jeopardy: What is the Impact of Gender Differences in Political Knowledge on Political Participation?*

Objective. We explore whether observed sex‐based differences in political knowledge have an impact on men's and women's participation in six different political activities. Methods. Utilizing ANES data from the five presidential elections between 1984 and 2000, we employ logistic regression to estimate the likelihood of voting, influencing a vote, attending a political meeting, working on a political campaign, wearing a political button, and making a campaign donation. Results. At lower levels of political knowledge, women's lower political knowledge depresses their participation in politics. The participation gap disappears at higher levels of political knowledge for three participatory acts: attempting to influence a vote, attending a political meeting, and donating to a political campaign. Furthermore, at higher levels of political knowledge, women are more likely than men to vote, wear a political button, or work for political campaigns. Conclusion. Our analysis reveals that political knowledge differentially affects men's and women's political participation. These findings complement existing scholarship that finds women hold themselves to a higher standard before engaging in political activities such as running for elected office.     

Collateral Consequences of a Collateral Penalty: The Negative Effect of Felon Disenfranchisement Laws on the Political Participation of Nonfelons*

Objective. Felon disenfranchisement (FD) policies are said to not only prohibit (ex)felons from voting, but also reduce the political influence of particular groups that are most affected by FD laws. This study tests several hypotheses regarding the role of socialization on individual‐level political participation to examine the claims that nonfelons' probability of voting is reduced by strict FD laws. Methods. The study uses multilevel modeling and two separate individual‐level data sets of those registered to vote to examine the effect of FD laws on the probability of voting. Results. The findings demonstrate that strict FD laws reduce the probability of voting for blacks, but not whites, while the results are mixed for several other demographic groups. Conclusions. Beyond the direct removal of ex‐felons from the voter pool, FD policy can undermine the mechanism of political socialization, leading to potentially greater biases in the electoral arena than previously thought.     

Voting by Mail: Turnout and Institutional Reform in Oregon*

Objectives. I test the impact of Oregon's vote‐by‐mail system on voter turnout. Methods. To determine the impact, I create a cross‐sectional time‐series regression model of state turnout in presidential elections from 1980 to 2004 and mid‐term elections from 1982 to 2006. Results. I find that Oregon's turnout increases by around 10 percentage points of registered voters in both presidential and mid‐term elections due to the voting‐by‐mail reform. Conclusions. These results suggest that one of the reasons that the United States has comparatively lower turnout is due to its more onerous voting procedures.     

Economic Determinants of Voting in an Era of Union Decline*

Objective. The objective of this article is to test competing hypotheses regarding union vote effects by economic sector. Overlooked in existing research on political participation and the labor movement is de‐unionization's sectoral dimension: declining union rolls is a private‐sector phenomenon. The sectoral dimension of union decline carries important political consequences if the influence of unions on voter turnout varies by sector. Method. Using Current Population Survey (CPS) November Voting and Registration Supplements for all national elections between 1984 and 2006, I estimate union vote effects for public‐ and private‐sector employees. Results. The results of the analyses reveal that while union members continue to vote at higher rates than otherwise similar nonmembers, the union effect is nearly three times as large for private‐sector members: private‐sector unionists have a predicted probability of voting 6.7 points higher than nonmembers, while public‐sector members have a predicted probability of voting only 2.4 points higher than nonmembers. Conclusions. Given the small fraction of private‐sector workers now in labor unions, recent fluctuations in the unionization rate have little aggregate affect on turnout. Given that private‐sector union members tend to be less educated and earn less than their public‐sector counterparts, the near disappearance of private‐sector unions from the economic landscape removes an important institutional buffer against political inequality in the United States.     

Sincerity and manipulation under approval voting

Under approval voting, each voter can nominate as many candidates as she wishes and the election winners are those candidates that are nominated most often. A voter is said to have voted sincerely if she prefers all those candidates she nominated to all other candidates. As there can be a set of winning candidates rather than just a single winner, a voter’s incentives to vote sincerely will depend on what assumptions we are willing to make regarding the principles by which voters extend their preferences over individual candidates to preferences over sets of candidates. We formulate two such principles, replacement and deletion, and we show that, under approval voting, a voter who accepts those two principles and who knows how the other voters will vote will never have an incentive to vote insincerely. We then discuss the consequences of this result for a number of standard principles of preference extension in view of sincere voting under approval voting.     

Government Program Usage and Political Voice*

Objectives. Despite the scope of U.S. social spending, we know little about cumulative program usage among individuals or how it may influence their political attitudes or behavior. This article examines program usage among citizens and probes the association of usage with program assessment and the likelihood of voting. Methods. We examine these issues using the 2005 Maxwell Poll, which uniquely asked respondents about both usage of 18 social programs as well as attitudes about such programs and rates of political involvement. Results. The data indicate that direct experience of social programs is fairly common and widespread across the population, but beneficiaries of programs differ in their assessments compared to nonbeneficiaries. Most significant, after controlling for various demographic factors, we find that the greater the number of universal programs citizens have used, the greater the likelihood that they vote; conversely, the greater the number of means‐tested programs they have used, the lower their likelihood of voting. Conclusion. Experiences of social programs may influence voter turnout and may help explain why young and less advantaged citizens vote less than older citizens. Trends in social provision may be fostering inequality of political voice, particularly among younger generations.     

Language Choice,Residential Stability,and Voting Among Latino Americans*

Objective. Students of political behavior have often found that the primary use of languages other than English impedes many forms of political participation in the United States. We develop expectations about how language choice operates with social context to influence an individual's decision to vote. Although choosing to speak a language other than English—in this case, Spanish—may affect the amount of political information individuals have at their disposal, this choice also represents their access to social and community resources that enable, rather than impede, political participation. Methods. We examine the voting behavior of Latinos, almost entirely Mexican Americans, living in south Texas counties on the U.S. border and reconsider the consequences of language choice for political behavior. Results. Controlling for past residential tenure, we find that Spanish‐speaking Latinos will be more likely to vote than English‐speaking Latinos. Conclusions. The establishment of ties to an ethnic group in a majority‐minority context over time mitigates the negative relationship between the use of Spanish as a primary language and voting.     

How Does Separability Affect The Desirability Of Referendum Election Outcomes?

Recent research has shown that in referendum elections, the presence of interdependence within voter preferences can lead to election outcomes that are undesirable and even paradoxical. However, most of the examples leading to these undesirable outcomes involve contrived voting situations that would be unlikely to occur in actual elections. In this paper, we use computer simulations to investigate the desirability of referendum election outcomes. We show that highly undesirable election outcomes occur not only in contrived examples, but also in randomly generated elections. Our data suggest that the presence of interdependent preferences significantly increases the likelihood of such undesirable outcomes, and that certain alternative voting methods, such as sequential voting and setwise aggregation, hold the potential to produce outcomes that more accurately reflect the will of the electorate.     

Location of Public Goods and the Calculus of Voting: The Seattle Monorail Referendum*

Objectives. In this article we explore how the geographic location of a proposed public good on the ballot in a local referendum influences voting turnout. We argue that voters who live farther away from the good, and are thus likely to bear the cost of the good but have no access to it, would be more motivated to turn out in the election. Drawing on the cost‐orientation hypothesis, or negativity effect, “that people are more strongly motivated to avoid losses than to approach gains,” we expect these voters to derive higher expressive benefits from the act of voting relative to those of voters located closer to the good. Methods. We examine voting turnout in the 2002 referendum in the City of Seattle on the proposed construction of a monorail. We conduct our study at the precinct level using spatial tools of analysis. We evaluate the effect of accessibility on turnout by means of a curvilinear model that incorporates demographic and political variables. Results. We find that voting turnout is determined partly by accessibility. Turnout is higher in precincts located farther away from the monorail line than in precincts located relatively closer to the line. Partisanship conditions this effect. Conclusions. This study provides tentative support for linking voter turnout to the negativity effect via expressive benefits. Voters' location in relation to a public good may affect directly their political behavior by means of their perceived net gains or losses from the good.     

Race,Roll‐Off,and Racial Transition: The Influence of Political Change on Racial Group Voter Roll‐Off in Urban Elections*

Objectives. Many cities in the United States have undergone or are undergoing racial transition from a majority white to a majority black population. Accompanying this is a change in the racial makeup of elections and officeholders. This article seeks to explain racial patterns in voter roll‐off as a city undergoes racial transition. Methods. Using a fixed‐effects regression model, we analyze the level of voter roll‐off (from the top‐of‐the‐ballot mayoral contest) among black and white voters across Memphis City Council elections, from 1967 through 2003. Results. The level of voter roll‐off among racial groups is sensitive to the racial aspect of political change. Black voters are most likely to continue to vote in council contests when there is a racial choice among candidates, when blacks have previously been elected, and when blacks occupy the mayoralty and a majority of council seats. Whites are most likely to vote in racially competitive council contests, as well as when there are a large number of white candidates, and when whites hold a majority of the council seats. Conclusions. In settings such as Memphis, where race has played a pronounced historic role, the racial context of political empowerment has a strong influence on electoral participation. Elections below the top‐of‐the‐ballot become more salient, and political efficacy grows among racial group members when that cohort occupies institutional positions, particularly the majority of positions in a governing institution.     

Political influence in multi-choice institutions: cyclicity,anonymity, and transitivity

We study political influence in institutions where each member chooses a level of support for a collective goal. These individual choices determine the degree to which the goal is reached. Influence is assessed by newly defined binary relations, each of which ranks members on the basis of their relative performance at a corresponding level of participation. For institutions with three options (e.g., voting games in which each voter may vote “yes”, “abstain”, or vote “no”), we obtain three influence relations, and show that their strict components may be cyclic. This latter property describes a “paradox of power” which contrasts with the transitivity of the unique influence relation of binary voting games. Weak conditions of anonymity suffice for each of these relations to be transitive. We also obtain a necessary and sufficient condition for each of these relations to be complete. Further, we characterize institutions in which the rankings induced by these relations, and the Banzhaf–Coleman and Shapley–Shubik power indices coincide. We argue that extending the influence relations to firms would be useful in efficiently assigning workers to different units of production. Finally, we provide applications to various forms of political and economic organizations.     

The electoral consequences of alienation: Nonvoting and protest voting in the 1992 presidential race

This article focuses on the context of the 1992 national elections in order to determine why certain alienated individuals chose to stay home on election day while others responded by voting for a third party Presidential candidate. Two dimensions of alienation, internal and external political inefficacy, are linked to lower levels of voting, as is consistent with previous research on voting behavior. In addition, we find that, among those who voted, those individuals who expressed political cynicism or external inefficacy were more likely to vote for Ross Perot. We conclude that, while many alienated individuals do not vote, the Perot candidacy in 1992 led certain alienated individuals to engage in “protest” voting by casting their vote for an unlikely winner in the presidential race.     

A Game-Theoretic View of Voting

Two game-theoretic arguments for the potential rationality of voting are presented. The first argument suggests that people make choices that allow the most favorable forecasts. People choose to vote inasmuch as they project their own choices between voting and abstaining more strongly onto members of their own political group than onto members of other political groups. Relevant evidence is reviewed and extended by new findings in a simulated public-goods dilemma. The second argument suggests that people preview how they will feel about each of the four possible scenarios generated by the conjunctions of their own choices (to vote or to abstain) and the election outcome (victory or defeat). They choose to vote inasmuch as they feel their own vote will not be wasted. The implications of both arguments for efforts to increase turnout are discussed.