Efficacy and Estrangement: Effects of Voting

This study examined changes in political efficacy and feelings of estrangement as a function of voting behavior in the 2008 presidential election in the U.S. Participants (n = 224), recruited from an online marketing company's representative panel of U.S. adults, completed a survey 4-6 weeks before the election and again 2-4 weeks after the election. Changes in internal and external political efficacy and feelings of estrangement were examined for three groups of voters (McCain voters, Obama voters, and non-voters) as well as by party affiliation. Internal political efficacy was and remained relatively high among Obama and McCain voters pre-election to post-election, but decreased for non-voters. Among Democrats, there was a significant increase in internal political efficacy, among Republicans, there was no change, and among those with no or a different party affiliation, there was a significant decrease. External political efficacy significantly increased pre-election to post-election among Obama voters and non-voters, but decreased for McCain voters. Additionally, post-election cultural estrangement was significantly higher among non-voters than voters. The results are discussed in terms of theoretical implications for understanding the potential impact of different forms of political participation. Several of the specific and distinctive aspects of the 2008 election and President Obama's campaign are also highlighted as they relate to voting behavior and potential changes in the American electorate.     

Location of Public Goods and the Calculus of Voting: The Seattle Monorail Referendum*

Objectives. In this article we explore how the geographic location of a proposed public good on the ballot in a local referendum influences voting turnout. We argue that voters who live farther away from the good, and are thus likely to bear the cost of the good but have no access to it, would be more motivated to turn out in the election. Drawing on the cost‐orientation hypothesis, or negativity effect, “that people are more strongly motivated to avoid losses than to approach gains,” we expect these voters to derive higher expressive benefits from the act of voting relative to those of voters located closer to the good. Methods. We examine voting turnout in the 2002 referendum in the City of Seattle on the proposed construction of a monorail. We conduct our study at the precinct level using spatial tools of analysis. We evaluate the effect of accessibility on turnout by means of a curvilinear model that incorporates demographic and political variables. Results. We find that voting turnout is determined partly by accessibility. Turnout is higher in precincts located farther away from the monorail line than in precincts located relatively closer to the line. Partisanship conditions this effect. Conclusions. This study provides tentative support for linking voter turnout to the negativity effect via expressive benefits. Voters' location in relation to a public good may affect directly their political behavior by means of their perceived net gains or losses from the good.     

Black legislative politics: Examining the issue of voting rights in the post-Hurricane Katrina period

Following Hurricane Katrina, a significant number of black voters were displaced from the New Orleans metropolitan area. With the 2006 New Orleans municipal elections forthcoming, especially the mayoral election, a significant portion of displaced black voters were faced with being disenfranchised, which was a violation of their civil rights and posed a threat to black political leadership in the city. This article examines whether black legislators provided substantive representation to these voters during the post-Hurricane Katrina period. That is, did black legislators advocate a legislative agenda to facilitate access to the ballot for displaced black New Orleans voters? Using a multi-methodological approach, evidence is presented indicating that black legislators did provide substantive representation to black voters by introducing key voting rights bills and voting in a way that was responsive to black concerns which facilitated access to the ballot.     

Who is early voting? An individual level examination

Objective. Early voting has been suggested as one method of increasing voter turnout. Allowing voters to cast their ballots during a longer time period may ameliorate some barriers to participation that exist. However, the question of whether early voting mobilizes previous nonvoting registrants or simply makes voting easier for those who would have participated anyway remains largely unanswered. Methods. We test these questions through the use of an individual level survey of voters in one Tennessee county. Using logistic regression, we consider the impact of demographic and attitudinal factors on the propensity to vote on election day or to use early voting. Results. We find marked differences between nonvoters and voters of either type, but we find few significant differences between early voters and traditional voters. We find little support for a mobilization effect and some evidence suggests that early voting merely conveniences those who would have voted anyway.     

Distance,Turnout, and the Convenience of Voting*

Objectives. This research examines how distance factors into the costs associated with political participation. We hypothesize that the political geography of a voter's residence affects not only the likelihood that he or she will vote, but whether the voter will choose between traditional Election Day voting or nontraditional means, such as casting an absentee ballot by mail, or going to an early‐voting site. Methods. Using a geographic information system (GIS), we calculate Manhattan‐block distances between voter residences and their respective precinct and nearest early‐voting sites in Clark County, NV for the 2002 mid‐term election. We then use these calculated distances to predict, with multinomial logistic regression, the likelihood of nonvoting, precinct voting, and nontraditional voting. Results. Our evidence suggests that the cost of traveling to reach a traditional voting site is associated with nonvoting to a point, but the relationship between distance and participation is nonlinear. Distance to traditional voting sites is also highly associated with choosing to vote by mail. Would‐be nonvoters are more inclined to use proximate election‐day sites than proximate early‐voting sites, probably because they decide to vote so late in the campaign. Conclusions. Our findings have important implications for democratic theory, ongoing efforts to reform the electoral process, and the practice of voter mobilization.     

Bandwagon Effects and Two-Party Majority Voting

Empirical studies of voting behavior provide evidence of bandwagon effects. Some voters, believing that a particular candidate will win, vote for this candidate even though they prefer the alternative. This paper provides a non-expected utility explanation of such behavior by positing that voters may be averse to the uncertainty associated with an election.     

Strategic and Sincere Voting in a One‐Sided Election: The Canadian Federal Election of 1997*

Objective. We are interested in whether and how voters make strategic decisions in a race that is, according to the polls, expected to be very one sided. Looking specifically at the choices available to ideologically right‐of‐center voters in the 1997 Canadian federal election, we argue that strategic considerations will be filtered by voters' assessments of the competitiveness of the race both locally and nationally. Methods. We estimate logistic regression models measuring support for the two right‐of‐center Canadian political parties. Our models focus on the relationship between assessments of district‐ and national‐level party prospects on voting for the Progressive Conservative Party. Results. We find that voters who consider the race competitive emphasize district‐level data in their strategic calculations. However, those who consider the election to be all but over look more closely at national‐level concerns when deciding which right‐wing party to support. Conclusions. We conclude that earlier understandings of tactical voting should be updated to take into consideration the circumstances under which voters will use national‐level evaluations of relative party viability in casting their ballots.     

Strategic voting in the 1984 democratic presidential primaries

When casting their ballots in primary elections, voters usually vote in a straight-forward manner for the candidate of their preference. But sometimes sophisticated voters vote for a second or third choice who has a better chance of winning in the general election or even cross over to the opposition party to vote for a candidate who will be easier to defeat in the general election. This article assesses the amount and importance of such strategic voting in Democratic presidential primaries in 1984 using discriminate analysis.     

Gerrymandering on Georgia's Mind: The Effects of Redistricting on Vote Choice in the 2006 Midterm Election*

Objective. We make use of individual‐level survey data from the 2006 midterm election in order to determine the degree to which redistricting affected the vote choice of whites residing in Georgia Congressional Districts 8 and 12. Methods. A multivariate probit model was used to assess the probability of voting for the GOP House candidate among voters represented by the same incumbent before and after redistricting versus voters who had been newly drawn into one of these districts. Results. Despite a national tide that favored the Democratic Party in the 2006 elections, redrawn whites were more likely to vote for the Republican challengers in the districts surveyed. Conclusions. Our findings indicate that redistricting can be used to dampen the incumbency advantage. In addition, the findings of this research also speak to the continuing Republican realignment of white voters in the Deep South and to the recognition that the effects of redistricting are dependent on political context.     

Election Day Registration's Effect on U.S. Voter Turnout

Objective . Early voter registration deadlines make voting more difficult for many American citizens. In an attempt to facilitate voting, several U.S. states now permit registration on election day, at the height of the campaign. This article examines the turnout effects of adopting election day registration (EDR) and other smaller reductions in closing dates. Methods . Primarily using the Current Population Study (1972-1996), we estimate the turnout advantage of EDR for citizens having low, middle, and high socioeconomic status. Results . The elimination of closing dates, through EDR, is predicted to produce about a 7-percentage-point turnout boost in the average state. Those having a high school education and middle incomes are expected to see the largest turnout gains, with the less educated and poorer citizens doing almost as well. No evidence is found to link the implementation of EDR to subsequent changes in the electorate's partisan balance. Conclusions . Even the most dramatic easing of voter registration costs has a modest effect on the total number of voters and little impact on the long-standing skew toward greater representation of those having higher status in the voting electorate of the United States.     

Nader voters in the 2000 Presidential Election: what would they have done without him?

This research estimates the likely voting behavior of Nader voters if he had not been a candidate in the presidential race. Bivariate analysis of ANES data suggests that Nader voters fit the profile of likely voters and have a distinct preference for Democratic candidates. We utilize multinomial logit analysis to include the possibility of abstention as well as the option of voting for Gore, Bush, or another third-party candidate. The results suggest that Nader voters closely resembled the typical voter in educational achievement, and therefore it is likely that a majority of these individuals would have participated in the 2000 election if Nader had not been a candidate. In addition, it is likely that these individuals would have voted for Al Gore over George Bush. However, these Nader voters were younger, less partisan, and were more likely to express feelings of political alienation, so it is quite possible that the absence of the Nader candidacy would have kept a sizeable minority of them at home on election day.     

Unaffiliated voters

According to the conventional wisdom, political parties are hurt by unaffiliated voters (those who are not registered as Democrats or Republicans). These independents are irresponsible and unpredictable. Recent election law reforms throughout the country have encouraged affiliation by restricting voting in a primary to party members. This study examines the effect of the closed primary system in Connecticut. Research found that since the advent of the primary, the proportion of voters registered as unaffiliated has undergone a steady decline. But the decline in the proportion unaffiliated, however, does not appear to have strengthened partisan commitments. Rather it has changed the meaning of unaffiliated registration. In the past unaffiliated voters tended to be Democrats. Today they are equally likely to be either party.     

TAXES AND SOCIAL SPENDING: THE SHIFTING DEMANDS OF THE AUSTRALIAN PUBLIC

This paper uses data from the Australian Election Studies (1987–2001) to investigate the preference for lower taxes or higher social spending among Australian voters. We offer some explanations for the increased support for higher social spending, especially after the election of the Howard Government in 1996. Regression models allow us to distinguish various factors that predict support for higher social spending. The main conclusions of the paper are that support for social spending is higher among voters with ‘social‐democratic’ attitudes and voting preferences but significantly, is also higher among voters who think health and Medicare services have declined since 1998. These findings are discussed in the context of various possible explanations for declining support for tax cuts.     

The potential of iterative voting to solve the separability problem in referendum elections

In referendum elections, voters are often required to register simultaneous votes on multiple proposals. The separability problem occurs when a voter’s preferred outcome on one proposal depends on the outcomes of other proposals. This type of interdependence can lead to unsatisfactory or even paradoxical election outcomes, such as a winning outcome that is the last choice of every voter. Here we propose an iterative voting scheme that allows voters to revise their voting strategies based on the outcomes of previous iterations. Using a robust computer simulation, we investigate the potential of this approach to solve the separability problem.     

A Game-Theoretic View of Voting

Two game-theoretic arguments for the potential rationality of voting are presented. The first argument suggests that people make choices that allow the most favorable forecasts. People choose to vote inasmuch as they project their own choices between voting and abstaining more strongly onto members of their own political group than onto members of other political groups. Relevant evidence is reviewed and extended by new findings in a simulated public-goods dilemma. The second argument suggests that people preview how they will feel about each of the four possible scenarios generated by the conjunctions of their own choices (to vote or to abstain) and the election outcome (victory or defeat). They choose to vote inasmuch as they feel their own vote will not be wasted. The implications of both arguments for efforts to increase turnout are discussed.     

One Person—No Vote; One Vote; Two Votes: Voting Methods, Ballot Types, and Undervote Frequency in the 2000 Presidential Election

Objectives . Political science long ignored the actual mechanics of voting—until the 2000 presidential contest. This research note offers a systematic empirical inquiry into the potential effects of various voting methods and electorate–specific variables on the rate at which citizens register a preference via the act of voting. Methods . Voting methods were analyzed in relation to the rate of undervotes recorded in Georgia's 159 counties during the 2000 general election using a set of multivariate models. Results . Lever machines and fill in the oval optical scan ballots are associated with lower rates of undervoting. Counties with large numbers of new registrants, lower education levels, and a higher proportion of African–American voters were found to have higher error rates. Conclusions . The results of this study provide strong evidence that voting methods and ballot types, as well as electorate–specific characteristics, are key factors in determining the error rate associated with the process of voting at the county level.     

The electoral consequences of alienation: Nonvoting and protest voting in the 1992 presidential race

This article focuses on the context of the 1992 national elections in order to determine why certain alienated individuals chose to stay home on election day while others responded by voting for a third party Presidential candidate. Two dimensions of alienation, internal and external political inefficacy, are linked to lower levels of voting, as is consistent with previous research on voting behavior. In addition, we find that, among those who voted, those individuals who expressed political cynicism or external inefficacy were more likely to vote for Ross Perot. We conclude that, while many alienated individuals do not vote, the Perot candidacy in 1992 led certain alienated individuals to engage in “protest” voting by casting their vote for an unlikely winner in the presidential race.     

Voting for Catholic Candidates: The Evolution of a Stereotype*

Objectives. This article looks at the effects of candidate Catholicism on individual voters, turning the traditional inquiry into voters' religion on its head. Specifically, it hypothesizes that individuals stereotype Catholic candidates based on the voting behavior of Catholics in general, and that these stereotypes help voters make a decision in elections with Catholic candidates. Methods. Using data from the American National Election Studies (ANES), this article argues that citizens hold stereotypes of Catholics based on actual Catholic political behavior—solidly Democratic from the 1950s to the 1970s, but trending Republican starting in the 1980s. It also tests these stereotypes with Gallup data on hypothetical Catholic candidates and analyzes, through election‐day exit polls, the impact on voters of the Catholic conversion of a sitting U.S. Senator. Results. The data analyses strongly support the article's hypothesis, demonstrating that partisan attitudes toward hypothetical Catholic candidates shifted direction as the Catholic electorate shifted. In addition, Senator Sam Brownback's (R‐KS) conversion to Catholicism increased partisan polarization in his support—indicating a conservative shift in perceptions. Conclusions. Candidate religion plays a role in elections. Specifically, voters stereotype candidates based on candidate religion and use this stereotyped information to help them make an electoral decision. This article demonstrates this effect for Catholicism, but other religions should evidence similar impacts.     

Sincerity and manipulation under approval voting

Under approval voting, each voter can nominate as many candidates as she wishes and the election winners are those candidates that are nominated most often. A voter is said to have voted sincerely if she prefers all those candidates she nominated to all other candidates. As there can be a set of winning candidates rather than just a single winner, a voter’s incentives to vote sincerely will depend on what assumptions we are willing to make regarding the principles by which voters extend their preferences over individual candidates to preferences over sets of candidates. We formulate two such principles, replacement and deletion, and we show that, under approval voting, a voter who accepts those two principles and who knows how the other voters will vote will never have an incentive to vote insincerely. We then discuss the consequences of this result for a number of standard principles of preference extension in view of sincere voting under approval voting.     

The Political Attitudes of Australian Voters and Candidates

Modern theories of political representation assume that there will be little congruence between the views of political elites and the voters they govern. This paper uses survey data collected among candidates and voters at the 1987 Australian federal election to examine the extent of elite-mass differences on a range of 33 issues. The results show that Labor candidates and Labor voters are more likely to disagree on political issues, while Liberal-National candidates and voters are more likely to agree. Candidates of all parties are more liberal on issues such as Asian immigration, law enforcement and the protection of the environment, compared to their voters, while Senate candidates are more liberal than House of Representatives candidates. Finally, as other studies have found, candidates with constituency responsibilities, in this case those standing for the House of Representatives and incumbents, are more likely to be closer to the views of their party's voters than Senate and non-incumbent candidates.