中国社会保障模式选择的民意基础——基于重庆市城乡居民福利态度的实证调查

究竟是哪些因素影响中国城乡居民对社会保障模式的选择？这些因素到底对中国社会保障模式选择影响有多大？对于这些问题,至今我们的了解仍显不足。对重庆市城乡居民福利态度的实证研究结果显示：城乡居民呈现出较为明显社会公平取向的特征。经济发展水平、人口结构特征、制度效果等因素对城乡居民均有显著影响。制度效果、恩格尔系数和文化程度、性别等因素对城乡居民社会保障模式取向的影响存在差异性。     

Pay-as-you-go social security and endogenous fertility in a neoclassical growth model

This paper theoretically studies how unfunded pay-as-you-go social security affects economic growth, the fertility rate, and welfare in a neoclassical growth model. In addition, this paper considers a more general form of child-rearing cost, which is a mixture of time and money. The first observation is that whether the fertility rate increases or not by the expansion of the pay-as-you-go social security depends on (1) the size of the monetary child-rearing cost relative to the time spent on child-rearing and (2) the current fertility and interest rate in laissez faire. The second observation is that income per worker can increase by an expansion in pay-as-you-go social security when the output elasticity of capital is sufficiently small and the payroll tax rate is high. The last finding is that welfare can be improved even though capital is underaccumulated in an economy.     

人口老龄化与社会福利状况:国际比较及其启示

国际比较表明,无论是与人口老龄化程度相当的国家相比,还是与经济发展水平相当的国家相比,中国在公共福利支出和社会养老保障制度方面都存在明显的不足和滞后。人口老龄化挑战的真正涵义是:能否在经济、社会转型和人口迅速老龄化的条件下,建立起公平、合理、有效的国家制度安排和社会应对机制。解决人口老龄化问题的根本出路不仅在于加快经济发展,弘扬传统文化,而且在于完善社会保障制度、增加公共福利支出。     

Family policy in 1990-1994

The nature and goals of family policy in Poland are discussed in the larger context of social policy and economic change, which reflects the transition to a market economy. The aim of family policy is to bring about a proper system of relationships between state and family, which allows for the performance of basic functions related to child rearing and satisfaction of basic needs. The roles of both governmental and nongovernmental organizations are considered important, although not actualized, in the implementation of family policy. Family policy involves laws regulating the conditions of welfare benefits in terms of prerequisites, amount of financial grants, services, and allowances such as food, clothing, or fuel. Financial resources may be received directly or indirectly by families. During 1990-94 major changes in family policy came about due to the transition to a market economy and were applied to social security benefits, work benefits, disability pensions, and health insurance. Changes were made in education, health care, and housing. A comprehensive model was never developed, in which negative effects of changes could be improved upon. Changes put greater emphasis on state and territorial governments to provide social welfare benefits, including social security benefits. Social welfare benefits were set at the lowest level of social security benefits. Economic changes have led to greater unemployment, housing difficulties, inflation, lower quality services, and a decline in the standard of living and security. The Central Statistical Office determined that over 56% of families in 1993 were affected by poverty conditions, which reduced expenditures on food and other needs. The proportion of the population recognized as poor increased during 1990-93 from 16.6% to 22.5% among workers, from 9.7% to 17.3% among farm tenants, from 23.9% to 36.6% among the self-employed, and from 30.4% to 40.6% among the aged and disabled. World Bank estimates showed that 15% of the total population were identified as poor. During this period, however, old-age pensions and the lowest salaries increased. The author concludes that policies must use general concepts that are comprehensive and that current economic trends should increase family income.     

Thinking about several problems of the research of our family planning strategy]

On the basis of 1982 census data, it is estimated that from 1987-1997 13 million women will enter the age of marriage and child-bearing each year. The tasks of keeping the population size around 1.2 billion by the year 2000 is arduous. Great efforts have to be made to continue encouraging one child/couple, and to pursue the current plans and policies and maintain strict control over fertility. Keeping population growth in pace with economic growth, environment, ecological balance, availability of per capita resources, education programs, employment capability, health services, maternal and child care, social welfare and social security should be a component of the long term development strategy of the country. Family planning is a comprehensive program which involves long cycles and complicated factors, viewpoints of expediency in guiding policy and program formulation for short term benefits are inappropriate. The emphasis of family planning program strategy should be placed on the rural areas where the majority of population reside. Specifically, the major aspects of strategic thrusts should be the linkage between policy implementation and reception, between family planning publicity and changes of ideation on fertility; the integrated urban and rural program management relating to migration and differentiation of policy towards minority population and areas in different economic development stages. In order to achieve the above strategies, several measures are proposed. (1) strengthening family planning program and organization structure; (2) providing information on population and contraception; (3) establishing family planning program network for infiltration effects; (4) using government financing, taxation, loan, social welfare and penalty to regulate fertility motivations; (5) improving the system of target allocation and data reporting to facilitate program implementation; (6) strengthening population projection and policy research; (7) and strengthening training of family planning personnel to improve program efficiency.     

社会福利、经济增长与区域发展差异——基于中国省域数据的耦合实证分析

文章测度了2003～2009年中国省域社会福利和经济增长水平的变迁特征,并通过耦合模型衡量了二者的协调发展程度,借此系统论述了中国区域发展的差异。研究结果表明,近年来中国社会福利与经济增长的区域差异明显,且各区域均存在福利的拐点。社会福利与经济增长协调度的下降和福利拐点的到来将恶化二者的耦合趋势。因此,当前各省应发挥增长在二者耦合关系中的主导作用,并结合自身发展特征加速经济发展方式转型,持续促进社会福利与经济增长的协调共进,从而缩小区域发展差异,深化和谐社会建设。     

Re-linking fertility behaviour and old age economic security: A delayed note on demeny

Recently Paul Demeny proposed a policy to solve the problem of below-replacement fertility. His proposal is to link the old age economic security of parents to their fertility behaviour, strengthening the material position of those aged persons who have carried the financial burden of childraising by assigning some proportion of the social security contributions of children directly to their parents. I argue that in the course of constructing his proposal, Demeny undermines the fertility-facilitating effect of conventional welfare policies and ignores the class-specific effects of existing pronatalist policies. I suggest that the adoption of additional welfare policies, apart from strengthening and correcting existing measures, would not only foster the achievement and maintenance of a socially adequate fertility level but also foster social justice for the individuals more directly involved in generational reproduction.     

The marginal cost of public funds with an aging population

"As populations in the United States and other advanced economies grow older, the burden of social security and health care financing is expected to rise markedly. Payroll, income, and other taxes on working populations are projected to rise accordingly. The marginal welfare cost to workers of social security and other public expenditures is analyzed within the context of a two-period life cycle model. By relaxing separability assumptions that have become common in the literature, the theoretical structure properly incorporates the effect of these public expenditures on labor supply. Comparative statics results indicate that changing age structure is likely to raise the marginal welfare to workers of social security, education, and other public expenditures. Illustrative calculations for the United States confirm this result, suggesting that the cost to workers of incremental social security benefits may easily double by 2025-2050."     

人口老龄化对社会保障财政支出的影响研究

人口老龄化是经济发展的必然趋势,而人口老龄化又会给经济发展带来一系列的问题,其中最直接的就是老年比重上升使老年福利支出增加,导致社会保障财政支出增加,从而影响到国民收入再分配和经济的可持续发展。本文从我国人口老龄化的现状和未来发展趋势出发,就其对社会保障财政支出的影响进行了分析,得出人口老龄化将会使负担系数上升、社会保障财政支出增加,并且在2030年以后会超过15%,最后提出了应对措施。     

从近六年“社会保障十件大事”看我国社会保障的发展特点与态势

文章对近六年中国“社会保障十件大事”进行统计分析,把脉近年来中国社会保障的发展变化与改革趋势。围绕事件的主题演变,社会保障呈现劳动保障向全民保障、普遍保障到特殊关注的发展态势,呈现被动保障到主动保障、分割推进到整体规划的发展态势,呈现由保险到福利、经济保障到服务保障的发展态势。但保障的公平性、流动性、可持续性等问题还需要进一步关注。     

挤入还是挤出:社会保障对子女经济供养老人的影响——关于医疗保障与家庭经济供养行为

社会保障对子女经济供养老人的影响一直是学术界关注的热点问题。基于实地调研数据,控制其他变量基础上,重点分析社会保障对子女经济供养老人的影响,研究结果显示,社会保障总体上对子女经济供养老人的水平具有挤入效应,老年人获得社会保障总体上将提高子女对其经济供养水平。而解释机制分析则发现,原因在于医疗保障释放了老年人的医疗卫生服务需求,进而增加了相应支出,并最终导致子女增加了经济供养支出。进一步分析发现了该效应的群体差异性,而该效应实质是医疗卫生资源和服务分配的阶层性差异,根源在于现行医疗卫生制度存在的各种弊病。在研究结论基础上,提出了建立公平的健康保障与福利改进体系等思考。     

A dynamic general equilibrium analysis of the political economy of public education

The primary objective of this paper is to highlight the distinct roles of altruism and of self-interest in the political determination of a public education policy. I assess the relative importance of three factors in the determination of the equilibrium level of this policy: altruism, the impact of public funding of education on social security benefits, and its impact on factor prices. I then focus on the impact of implementing a social security system on the equilibrium levels of education funding and on welfare. I find that although in the benchmark economy, the presence of social security might generate support for public funding of education, its overall effect on the well-being of individuals is negative for any level of social security taxation.

Uncertain lifetime, fertility and social security

Investigating the effects of population aging on fertility and economic growth, we show that an increase in life expectancy lowers the fertility rate and raises life-cycle savings, and that a pay-as-you-go social security does not reverse the effect on fertility. Received: 10 March 2000/Accepted: 28 April 2000     

我国三类人群社会福利现状的定量研究

我国社会福利正经历着从"小福利"向"大福利"的转型,而认清区域间社会福利的差异对于整体转型具有重要意义。利用SPSS软件中的均值分析、回归分析和聚类分析技术,从福利供应的角度对我国儿童教育福利、残疾人康复福利、老年人供养福利进行区域差异的量化研究。研究发现,我国三类人群的社会福利基本上呈现出自东向西逐步恶化的趋势,经济发展水平对社会福利呈现出了决定性作用,且三类社会福利的区域差异程度有内部分化。在认清我国区域间社会福利差异的前提下,应强化对中西部地区的支持,保证福利供应在区域之间的平衡,为实现"大福利"的转型奠定基础。     

Population growth and social security financing

By allowing the population growth to be flexible, this paper analyzes the effect of a tax reform that involves an introduction of consumption taxation for social security financing. It is found that population growth and labor supply play an important role in determining the effect of the tax reform. If population growth and labor supply are exogenous, then an introduction of a consumption tax for social security financing, with the payroll tax rate being endogenous, decreases the interest rate and increases capital accumulation. However, if population growth and labor supply are endogenous, then an introduction of a consumption tax for social security financing increases the interest rate and reduces capital accumulation. Received: 26 February 2001/Accepted: 26 August 2001     

上海浦东城乡最低生活保障一体化的实现途径——构建城乡阶梯式最低生活保障体系

以现行农村最低生活保障的标准为基线扩大制度覆盖面,根据乡镇经济发展水平的差异,调整区镇两级财政的负担比例,经济发展较差的村镇,在区财政支持的倾斜下,扩大提高保障的覆盖面和保障水平。随时间的发展,在经济有承受力的条件下,最低生活保障的内容实现从单类保障逐渐向综合保障的过渡。最终在各方面条件完全成熟后,实现低保的综合保障,即包括基本生存条件、贫困医疗救助、贫困家庭子女教育救助和贫困家庭应急救助的保障体系。     

养老保险制度与经济增长的关系——基于新增长理论模型的思考

本文在回顾有关社会保障与经济增长理论的基础上,探讨了新增长理论模型如何从人力资本角度出发,分析养老保险对经济增长的影响,证明了设计合理的养老保险制度可以通过不断刺激人们增加人力资本投资来提高经济增长的速度,最后对模型的理论意义进行了思考。     

新生代农民工城市融合障碍构成原因探析——基于社会排斥理论的视阈

结合实地调研与访谈结果,本文发现进城务工的新生代农民工面临着来自经济、政治、文化、教育以及福利等方面的排斥。本文基于社会排斥理论,从两个维度分析了形成这些排斥的原因：一是受人力资本素质、文化与社会认同等自身禀赋约束的功能性排斥,二是受户籍、就业、社会保障等制度影响的结构性排斥。功能性社会排斥与结构性社会排斥的存在直接导致了新生代农民工的城市融合进程受阻,只有拆除这种藩篱才能够促进其尽快实现城市融合。     

Social security reforms and early retirement

Many reform proposals of the social security systems in various OECD economies suggest to scale down the non-actuarial parts of the pension systems. These reforms have a flavor of increased efficiency at the costs of welfare losses for low-income individuals. Assessing the economic effects, we investigate five different reform proposals by means of a numerical overlapping generations model for the Norwegian economy. The model features an endogenous retirement age and heterogeneous individuals within generations. It turns out that the various reforms, which scale down the public non-actuarial pension system, lead to increases in the retirement age and steady-state welfare gains for all income classes. Received: 7 December 2000/Accepted: 29 January 2002 All correspondence to ?ystein Th?gersen. Financial support from the Research Council of Norway (The Economic Research Program on Taxation) is gratefully acknowledged. We are indebted to Lans Bovenberg, John Ermisch, Erling Steigum and two referees for valuable comments and useful discussion. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch.     

Social security, public education, and growth in a representative democracy

This paper studies the relationship between public education and pay-as-you-go social security in a representative democracy, where the government reacts both to voting and lobbying activities of workers and pensioners. While an intergenerational conflict prevails concerning actual social security contributions, workers may prefer public education for its positive effect on later pension benefits. Population aging diminishes the relative lobbying power of pensioners, leading to a higher contribution rate, educational expansion, and higher per capita income growth. Received: 05 April 1999/Accepted: 20 December 1999