老年人长期照护需求现状及趋势研究

伴随人口老龄化的加剧,老年人照护问题逐渐成为社会关注的热点。国内学者关于长期照护的研究大多是以失能老人为基础的,对失智者的研究较少涉及。本研究依照老年人的功能状态,将照护需求评估建立在对失能老人和失智老人分析的基础之上,分析我国老年人的长期照护需求及未来的变化趋势,以期对今后长期照护政策的制定提供参考。     

农村社会养老服务需求意愿的实证分析——基于甘肃563位老人问卷调查

本文针对甘肃农村人口老龄化的发展态势及当前农村养老服务存在的各种问题,基于甘肃农村563位老年人问卷调查和知情人访谈获取的数据资料,就甘肃农村老年人口对养老服务方式和养老服务项目的需求意愿进行了分析.分析结果表明:在养老服务方式上,绝大多数甘肃农村老年人口愿意居家养老并享受家庭和社区提供的各种养老服务;在养老服务项目上,甘肃农村老年人对医疗护理和临终照料的服务需求最为强烈.鉴于当前加速发展的城镇化和家庭人口小型化给农村养老服务已构成了严峻挑战,本文从农村机构养老服务建设、养老服务信息化平台建设和养老服务队伍专业化多样化建设等方面提出了相应对策建议,以利于甘肃及我国农村养老服务体系的建设和发展.     

中国城市老人购买长期护理保险意愿及其影响因素

中国正处在快速老龄化阶段,随着家庭结构的小型化和空巢化,日益加剧的老龄化使老年人尤其是高龄失能、失智老人的照护问题变得非常迫切.在国外,一些发达国家通过建立长期护理保险制度,基本解决了老年人对长期护理服务的需求.文章利用《2010年中国城乡老年人口状况追踪调查个人问卷(城市部分)》数据,对我国城市老年人长期护理保险购买意愿进行实证分析.结果发现:目前城市老年人购买长期照护保险的意愿并不高,并且存在较高的逆向选择;人口社会因素、经济因素、替代因素、健康因素及意识因素显著影响着城市老年人购买长期护理保险的意愿.针对上述状况,文章在深入分析的基础上,对加强我国长期护理保险建设提出了具体的建议.     

西安市社区老年人照护服务的利用和需求研究——基于典型社区的调查

利用在西安市三个典型社区进行的176份问卷调查结果,对社区老年人利用社会照护服务的现状及需求进行了研究.结果表明,社区老年人总体利用社会照护服务的水平不高,在大多数项目上存在着增加服务的巨大需求,社区老年居民对社会照护服务的利用和需求受社会人口特征、家庭照顾、健康状况和社区等因素的影响.     

国外老年长期护理产业发展及对中国的启示

人口快速老龄化使老年长期护理成为国际社会关注的焦点。通过对国外老年长期护理产业的历史回顾及现状分析,发现需求旺盛和生活形态变迁正刺激老年长期护理产业发展及有助于拉动就业和带动地区经济增长;美国、日本的发展进程表现出当前老年长期护理产业陷入了人力资源短缺、护理成本高和质量差等困境。我国应借鉴发达国家的经验与教训,通过构建老年长期护理保障制度、运用灵活的资金筹措机制和建立多元化照护服务体系等,快速发展和完善老年长期护理产业,在满足老年人及其家庭需要的同时,作为一项新型产业开辟劳动力市场和拉动地区经济增长。     

上海市老年照护社会救助需求研究——基于Markov模型的预测

文章以经济困难和生活自理困难("双困")老人为研究对象,利用中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据,运用Markov模型构建老年人失能状态转移概率矩阵,预测未来上海市"双困"老年人口规模和老年照护社会救助费用。预测结果表明,上海市失能老年人数量增速逐渐放缓,但"双困"老人在失能老年人中的比例并未减少,其平均增速高于失能老年人的平均增速。根据预测,若将救助对象的收入条件限制放宽到低保标准的2.5倍,所需照护费用是以低保为救助条件所需费用的3倍。日益增长的"双困"老年人口规模和照护救助费用意味着未来老年照护社会救助需求巨大。文章认为,解决"双困"老人照护需求,需将老年照护社会救助纳入社会救助体系中,构建完整的老年照护社会救助制度。     

我国失能老人长期照护资金规模的测算分析

近年来我国失能老人数量持续增长,失能老人长期照护成为我国学术界持续关注的热点问题。因此,有必要评估和分析我国现存的老年长期护理筹资方式、筹资渠道、筹资规模等,其研究结论可以为我国未来制定相关的社会政策提供借鉴,使我国失能老人长期护理体系制度建设更合理且更有效率。本文在对我国老年人失能率、老年人失能规模、失能等级、失能老人护理使用率、不同护理方式的护理成本等相关变量进行定量分析的基础上,根据我国长期护理的市场供给价格,以大量抽样调查样本数据为依据,采用"总体仿真模型"测算出2015-2050年我国失能老人长期照护资金的筹集规模,为我国建立老年人长期护理保险制度提供参考和依据。     

中国老年人生活自理能力发展轨迹研究

生活自理能力是影响老年人健康及生活质量的最为普遍性的问题。本文利用"中国城乡老年人口状况追踪调查"十年追踪数据对老年人的生活自理能力(ADL和IADL)的发展轨迹进行深入研究。研究发现老年人的ADL自理能力发展轨迹呈现出低起点快速下降型、高起点急速下降型、高起点平稳下降型三种类型,老年人的IADL自理能力发展轨迹则分为低起点快速下降型和高起点缓慢下降型两种类型。不同社会经济特征老年群体在生活自理能力发展轨迹类型上存在显著差异,老年妇女、少数民族老年人、低教育程度者、老年农民和城市从未正式工作过的老年人的生活自理能力发展轨迹属于较差模式的可能性更高。老年人生活自理能力发展轨迹形态受人口社会学特征、健康状况、社会交往、家庭支持等多方面的影响。基于实证研究结果,文章认为应加强社会政策的公平性导向,积极扩展社会经济地位对健康的正向作用;广泛调动家庭和社会力量的介入,通过增加老年人与家人、邻里和朋友的联络、交流和支持来改善健康状况;同时应基于老年人生活自理能力动态发展的模式和特点,构建适合的社会预防照护和长期照护服务体系。     

供给侧改革背景下老年人照护模式的选择意愿

基于第四次中国城乡老年人生活状况抽样调查湖北片区的数据,从供给侧出发,运用多项Logistic回归模型考察了家庭照护资源供给、 居家照护资源供给、 机构照护资源供给,以及经济状况四个方面对老年人照护模式选择意愿的影响.研究结果表明,不同类型照护资源供给对老年人照护模式选择意愿的影响不同,如家庭照护资源供给会促进老年人选择家庭照护,而机构照护资源供给反而会负向影响老年人选择机构照护;多元化的居家照护资源供给未必会正向影响老年人的居家照护意愿,只有上门看病和心理咨询服务会促进老年人选择居家照护;经济状况差的老年人,尤其是困难、 失能失智老年人往往需要子女经济支持或政府兜底以获得居家照护或机构照护.最后在此基础上提出了相应的对策建议.     

中国失能老人长期照护服务使用的影响因素分析——基于安德森健康行为模型的实证研究

文章利用2014年中国老人健康长寿跟踪调查数据(CLHLS),将安德森健康行为模型作为理论框架剖析中国失能老年人群对长期照护服务使用的影响因素.实证研究表明:安德森模型中的3类变量中只有使能因素和需求因素对服务的选择产生了显著影响,前倾因素则不显著.据此,文章得出与前人研究不同的结论:在中国当前的现实情境和文化背景下,老人对于长期照护服务的使用更多的是受到客观环境的影响,即便个人有使用某种健康服务的特征和倾向,但仍受制于政策环境、个人与家庭能力以及健康状况等能力和需求要素.此外,文章引入家庭照料者意愿这一变量,对安德森模型进行本土化改造的探索,并对服务需求评估工具、家庭发展能力和社区服务未来走向等内容进行深入探讨.     

View Grandeur by Details and Fill Feelings in Scenery

正Chen Chenyi is one of my very valued painters.For many years,he has been assiduous in painting.Influenced by his family since childhood,he possesses profound artistic cultivation and solid basic painting skills.His pursuit in Chinese painting is refl ected in his constant exploration in the artistic conception of the painting’s general     

Statistical Communiqué on Human Resources and Social Security Development in 2013

正In 2013,under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Party and the State Council and with the focus on major objectives of the Party and the state,China adhered to the main work line of orienting by people’s livelihood and giving priority to talents;laid equal emphasis on both normal operation and internal construction;comprehensively promoted scientific development,reform and innovation of human resources and social security undertakings and     

Health and Happiness for All ——2014 International Day of Families China Commemoration Meeting was Held in Beijing

正May 15th is the International Day of Families.The United Nations has set the theme of this year for the Day as Families Matter for the Achievement of Development Goals.The theme for China is Health for Everyone and Happiness for Each Family.In order to do well in publicizing     

Arrests of Fugitive Economic Crime Suspects Abroad： Fox Hunt 2014 in Action

正In 2014,China launched a massive global Fox Hunt operation to arrest fugitives and recover the embezzled money and intensifi ed the pace to captur e corrupt officials overseas.Some media analysts believe the government tries to deter"those corrupt offi cials who decide to run away for good after being fully fed by embezzled money":foreign countries are not their boltholes any more."The movements of quite a large number     

Green Pu’er City and the Cloud Tea

正If being asked which is the largest city of Yunnan,nine out of ten people would give the wrong answer-just as some people would reply that Toronto is the capital of Canada,Sydney is the capital of Australia and Guilin is the capital of Gaungxi.In fact,the largest city of Yunnan is Pu’er,not Kunming.Many people are familiar with Pu’er because of Pu’er Tea.They believe the place"Pu’er"is named after the tea.But the     

National Health and Family Planning Commission Issued Action Plan for National Health Literacy Promotion 2014-2020

正Health literacy is the ability of a person to obtain and understand basic healthcare information and service and make appropriate decisions to maintain and improve one’s own health by applying that information and service.It is not only an important indicator to evaluate health and family planning work and people’s health status,but also a     

China will Promote Establish ment of Classified Diagnosis and Treatment System and Reform Medical Insurance Payment System

正According to Xinhuanet,during the Forum on Pilots of Urban Public Hospital Comprehensive Reform held in Sanming City of Fujian Province,Dr.Li Bin,Minister of National Health and Family Planning Commission(NHFPC)indicated that the pilots of public hospital reform would promote the establishment of classifi ed diagnosis and treatment system.Li said the medical consortium connected grassroots medical institutions to major hospitals on both ends.It had     

Statistical Communique on Development of Disabled Persons Undertaking in China in 2013

正In 2013,the sixth national congress of China Disabled Persons'Federation(CDPF)was convened successfully,which had provided important idealogical and organizational guarantees for promoting innovation and development at a new starting point.Under the effective leadership and guidance of the Party Central Committee and the State Council,Party and government departments had attached great importance,CDPF worked hard,all     

“Poststroke Rescue”Public Welfare Project Plans to Provide Services to 100 000 Shanghai Rural Elderly

正According to Chinanews.com,"Pinetree Poststroke Rescue"public welfare project,which aims at providing social assistance for stroke patients,has established the first rural rehabilitation nursing station in Minhang district of Shanghai on April 3,2014.The public projects has planned to fully cover nine districts in Shanghai suburbs and expect to deliver services to more than 100 000 rural elderly.The organization founder Wang Yanni introduced the"beautiful rural trilogy"strategy.First,by working with     

Low Fertility Trap:Theories,Facts and Implications

The low Fertility Trap Hypothesis proposes that there are three self-reinforcing mechanism--demographic,sociological and economic,working towards a downward spiral in future fertility.Once TFR drops below 1.5,it will be difficult to recover.The fertility recovery emerging in many countries across the world has changed the lowfertility trap theory and also the justification of the theory itself.So low-fertility trap is more likely a pattern summarized from a short-time phenomenon than a generalized social law.As with China,the current fertility level is above 1.5 births per woman,and China is not in the "Low-fertility trap".Moreover,most recent surveys suggests that current fertility intention in China is above 1.8 births per woman and more than60 percent of people would have a second child if there is an adjustment of fertility policy.In addition,birth postponement is still playing an important role in reducing TFR in China.Thus,with the high fertility intention,adjustment of family planning policy and decreasing tempo effect,TFR in China will experience upturn but not further decline in the near future.It is lack of evidence to conclude that China has already been or is going to be trapped in low fertility.