多目标决策视角下中国适度人口规模预测

对未来中国适度人口规模的基本判断是关系中国人口政策走向的根本问题,也是近年来各界关注的焦点之一。研究采用多目标决策技术中的"可能-满意度"方法(PS法),结合我国国民经济与社会发展远景目标,提取经济、资源环境、人口动态发展及与其他国家人口对比等四方面中的13个指标,首先对单个指标影响因素的可能-满意度曲线进行分析;其次设计由不同的指标并合而成的8种方案,以2050年为目标时间点,计算每种方案所对应的适度人口规模及人口结构,并分析对应的人口政策;最后对影响人口规模的关键因素进行分析和验证。研究结果表明,我国人口在2050年应当达到的适度目标规模的取值范围为14.8亿至15.4亿之间,此时,可能-满意度大于0.74,人们的生活质量达到一个较高水平,老年系数在0.226~0.236之间。     

生态承载力约束下的重庆市适度人口规模情景预测

本文考虑区域生态承载力的"可能度"和人们对生态产品和服务消费的"满意度",提出结合生态足迹法和"可能-满意度"法的适度人口规模预测方法。以重庆市为研究区,在分析该区生态足迹和生态承载力的基础上,依据土地利用总体规划和不同收入国家的生态足迹水平,构建生态承载力约束下的生态足迹发展情景,对该区适度人口规模进行预测。结果表明:重庆市在生态足迹缓慢增长情景下的"可能-满意度"最高,对应适度人口规模为3306万人,该指标主要取决于土地利用变化与人们生态产品和服务消费结构和水平的变化。因此,重庆市应严格实施土地利用总体规划,引导人们通过调整消费结构降低生态足迹,这对于实现区域可持续发展和保护三峡库区生态安全具有重要意义。     

资源环境约束下的中国适度人口研究

资源环境约束下的适度人口,既能够符合资源环境的约束条件,同时又能达到一定生活水准和发展目标,它是制定中国未来人口政策的重要依据.文章采用可能-满意度模型(P-S法),基于资源环境约束下的适度人口概念及其内在机制分析,提取自然资源、环境因素、社会经济因素三方面中的12个指标,以2030年和2050年为目标时间点,分别计算单个因子和多种方案下对应的适度人口规模.结果表明:在各种主要资源环境约束下,若我国2030年的人口规模介于11.57～13.22亿人之间,2050年介于14.65 ～16.26亿人之间,则可以实现最低的临界适度目标;若2030年和2050年总人口能分别达到9.86 ～11.11亿人和11.88～13.89亿人,则可以实现理想的适度人口目标.未来制约我国人口增长的最主要因素始终是水资源;2030年之前我国人口资源环境关系进一步趋紧,之后直到2050年后将趋于好转.     

兰州市中心城区适度人口测算分析

采用多情景模式下的适度人口测算方法,从用地空间、可供水量、绿地指标、GDP和生态足迹五个方面预测了兰州市中心城区的适度人口与最大人口规模.结果表明:生态环境和用地空间对兰州中心城区人口客量规模的限制作用较其它因素强烈;中心城区适度人口为217.82万,最大人口规模为393.86万.2005年中心城区现状人口数已接近达到适度人口容量.     

单因素约束下的坡市人口合理容量测算——以成都市为例

为制定城市发展规划，以实现城市可持续发展的目标，需对城市合理人口容量进行测算。考虑人口容量与经济、社会、自然的关系，选取国民生产总值、经济弹性系数、产业发展、耕地资源、水资源为制约人口容量的制约因素．测度各因素制约下的人口合理容量，最后应用“木桶原理”得到同时满足各个制约因素的人口合理容量。     

试论大地人口容量

整个地球,一个国家或一个地区的人口容量有多大,不仅是指有多大空间,可供多少人容身,而更是指有多少资源,可以养活多少人。近一、二十年来,许多世界组织和国家日益热衷于研究这一问题,反映着人口与环境关系的日趋紧张。然而,众说纷纭,它仍是人口学中值得讨论的问题之一。 一、一般动物的环境容量与大地人口容量 1.一般动物环境容量的涵义 如果一般地给环境容量一个定义,它是在给定生态系统下,某一动物种群得以生存的规模,也就是该生态系统支持这一种群的潜力。这是指境内资源对动物种群的制约,仅仅是资源这一制约因素的结果,而并非所有制约因素合力的结果。实际上环境容量具有以下特点:     

云南省人口承载力分析

中国第六次人口普查数据显示,全省总人口数为459 662 39人,规模巨大,而且16个州市的总人口区域分布极不平衡。昆明市是人口高度聚集的区域,总人口643.2万人,迪庆藏族自治州40.0万人,昆明总人口比迪庆藏族自治州16倍还多。本文以整个云南省的粮食产量、国内生产总值(GDP)来代表影响人口地理区域分布最大的两个因子:即种植业产量产值以及人均收入水平,并用云南省粮食的产量和人均GDP两个指标分别计算出云南各县(市、区)的抚养能力,也就是用土地资源的人口承载力来代表区域的自然人口容量、用GDP的人口容量代表经济人口容量。然后评价了云南省129个县(市、区)的人口承载情况,目的在于优化云南省人口区域分布结构,以实现云南人口、资源、环境、社会经济协调发展。     

中国老年失能年龄模式及未来失能人口预测

老年失能模式及失能水平反映了人口的健康状况,其变化趋势对照护服务需求和供给产生了重要影响。本文以2002-2014年中国老年人健康长寿影响因素跟踪调查(CLHLS)数据为基础,利用参数区间估计思想和非参数法测算得到不同类型的按龄老年人口失能模式,预测未来老年人失能规模和结构的状态及发展趋势。结果显示:第一,不同人口状态下的老年失能年龄模式不同。其按城乡和性别分类的失能模式呈指数型增长曲线,而按城乡和不同失能程度分类的失能模式则表现出异质性,轻度失能的老年失能模式为线性式增长曲线或指数型增长曲线;中、重度老年失能的年龄模式则为"J"型增长曲线。第二,随着人口老龄化加深和老年人口规模的增加,未来失能老年人口规模将不断扩大,65岁及以上失能老年人口规模将由2020年的1 867万人左右上升至2050年的5 205万人左右;失能老年人占总人口的比重也将持续上升,2050年失能人口约占老年人口总数的13.68%。因此需重视高龄失能照护服务需求,也要及早制定政策防止老年人过早失能。     

21世纪我国人口老化与生育政策选择

本文通过对不同生育率水平和不同生育政策选择方案下的我国21世纪人口发展趋势的预测,可以判断,制约我国21世纪初期的生育政策选择的因素不仅仅是人口总量压力,在实现人口规模控制在16亿以内的前提下,人口老化成为制约我们选择何种生育政策使我国21世纪中后叶人口年龄结构趋于优化的首要因素。     

西安市人口合理容量测算实证研究

如何科学地测定一个城市人口的合理容量，对于确保人口与资源、环境。以及经济社会的协调发展等方面。都具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。本文在系统分析影响城市人口容量诸因素的基础上．运用大量统计资料和数据。建立城市人口容量预测模型，对西安市2010年和2015年的合理人口容量进行了测算。     

View Grandeur by Details and Fill Feelings in Scenery

正Chen Chenyi is one of my very valued painters.For many years,he has been assiduous in painting.Influenced by his family since childhood,he possesses profound artistic cultivation and solid basic painting skills.His pursuit in Chinese painting is refl ected in his constant exploration in the artistic conception of the painting’s general     

Statistical Communiqué on Human Resources and Social Security Development in 2013

正In 2013,under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Party and the State Council and with the focus on major objectives of the Party and the state,China adhered to the main work line of orienting by people’s livelihood and giving priority to talents;laid equal emphasis on both normal operation and internal construction;comprehensively promoted scientific development,reform and innovation of human resources and social security undertakings and     

Health and Happiness for All ——2014 International Day of Families China Commemoration Meeting was Held in Beijing

正May 15th is the International Day of Families.The United Nations has set the theme of this year for the Day as Families Matter for the Achievement of Development Goals.The theme for China is Health for Everyone and Happiness for Each Family.In order to do well in publicizing     

Arrests of Fugitive Economic Crime Suspects Abroad： Fox Hunt 2014 in Action

正In 2014,China launched a massive global Fox Hunt operation to arrest fugitives and recover the embezzled money and intensifi ed the pace to captur e corrupt officials overseas.Some media analysts believe the government tries to deter"those corrupt offi cials who decide to run away for good after being fully fed by embezzled money":foreign countries are not their boltholes any more."The movements of quite a large number     

Green Pu’er City and the Cloud Tea

正If being asked which is the largest city of Yunnan,nine out of ten people would give the wrong answer-just as some people would reply that Toronto is the capital of Canada,Sydney is the capital of Australia and Guilin is the capital of Gaungxi.In fact,the largest city of Yunnan is Pu’er,not Kunming.Many people are familiar with Pu’er because of Pu’er Tea.They believe the place"Pu’er"is named after the tea.But the     

National Health and Family Planning Commission Issued Action Plan for National Health Literacy Promotion 2014-2020

正Health literacy is the ability of a person to obtain and understand basic healthcare information and service and make appropriate decisions to maintain and improve one’s own health by applying that information and service.It is not only an important indicator to evaluate health and family planning work and people’s health status,but also a     

China will Promote Establish ment of Classified Diagnosis and Treatment System and Reform Medical Insurance Payment System

正According to Xinhuanet,during the Forum on Pilots of Urban Public Hospital Comprehensive Reform held in Sanming City of Fujian Province,Dr.Li Bin,Minister of National Health and Family Planning Commission(NHFPC)indicated that the pilots of public hospital reform would promote the establishment of classifi ed diagnosis and treatment system.Li said the medical consortium connected grassroots medical institutions to major hospitals on both ends.It had     

Statistical Communique on Development of Disabled Persons Undertaking in China in 2013

正In 2013,the sixth national congress of China Disabled Persons'Federation(CDPF)was convened successfully,which had provided important idealogical and organizational guarantees for promoting innovation and development at a new starting point.Under the effective leadership and guidance of the Party Central Committee and the State Council,Party and government departments had attached great importance,CDPF worked hard,all     

“Poststroke Rescue”Public Welfare Project Plans to Provide Services to 100 000 Shanghai Rural Elderly

正According to Chinanews.com,"Pinetree Poststroke Rescue"public welfare project,which aims at providing social assistance for stroke patients,has established the first rural rehabilitation nursing station in Minhang district of Shanghai on April 3,2014.The public projects has planned to fully cover nine districts in Shanghai suburbs and expect to deliver services to more than 100 000 rural elderly.The organization founder Wang Yanni introduced the"beautiful rural trilogy"strategy.First,by working with     

Low Fertility Trap:Theories,Facts and Implications

The low Fertility Trap Hypothesis proposes that there are three self-reinforcing mechanism--demographic,sociological and economic,working towards a downward spiral in future fertility.Once TFR drops below 1.5,it will be difficult to recover.The fertility recovery emerging in many countries across the world has changed the lowfertility trap theory and also the justification of the theory itself.So low-fertility trap is more likely a pattern summarized from a short-time phenomenon than a generalized social law.As with China,the current fertility level is above 1.5 births per woman,and China is not in the "Low-fertility trap".Moreover,most recent surveys suggests that current fertility intention in China is above 1.8 births per woman and more than60 percent of people would have a second child if there is an adjustment of fertility policy.In addition,birth postponement is still playing an important role in reducing TFR in China.Thus,with the high fertility intention,adjustment of family planning policy and decreasing tempo effect,TFR in China will experience upturn but not further decline in the near future.It is lack of evidence to conclude that China has already been or is going to be trapped in low fertility.