人口年龄结构对居民消费影响的路径分析北大核心CSSCI

文章在人口年龄结构对居民消费影响的理论机制基础上,提出人口年龄结构对居民消费影响的直接路径和间接路径假设,并以结构方程模型进行了路径分析的实证检验。检验结果表明:人口年龄结构对居民消费存在直接影响和间接影响;直接影响中,人口总抚养比正向影响居民消费,少儿抚养比、老年抚养比负向影响居民消费;间接影响中,总抚养比、少儿抚养比能通过产业结构、经济增长及收入分配影响居民消费,而老年抚养比只通过收入分配影响居民消费;同时研究发现,人口年龄结构对居民消费的间接影响路径系数大于直接影响路径系数。并且本文对基于人口年龄结构的我国低消费率的形成机制进行了分析。     

中国人口年龄结构与城乡居民消费关系的实证分析

人口年龄结构转变本身具有动态性,与消费的关系也随之变化。文章基于1987-2011年时间序列数据对中国城乡人口年龄结构与居民消费之间的关系进行了比较研究。结果发现:城、乡居民消费率与少儿抚养比之间均具有显著正相关关系,少儿抚养比越低,城、乡居民消费率越低,但少儿抚养比的降低对城、乡居民消费率边际变化的影响差异不大;现阶段整体来看老年抚养比对城、乡居民消费率的作用并不显著;人口年龄结构对消费的影响具有时期效应,与进入人口老龄化阶段之前相比,我国城、乡老年抚养比相对于少儿抚养比对消费变化的影响更大;此外,少儿抚养比通过家庭收入增长率对城镇居民消费具有显著偏效应,老年抚养比则通过家庭收入增长率对农村居民消费具有显著偏效应,这说明伴随着人口年龄结构的转变,城、乡居民分别在子女照料、老人赡养等方面作出了消费倾斜。     

中国人口抚养比与居民消费——基于生命周期理论北大核心CSSCI

近年来中国居民消费率呈逐年下降的趋势,其原因何在？本文以生命周期理论为基础构建了一个包含人口抚养比的居民消费模型,考察人口抚养比对居民消费率的影响。2001～2011年中国省际面板数据的实证研究结果表明：少儿抚养比对居民消费率有显著性的正向影响,老年抚养比对居民消费率有显著性的负向影响,即少儿抚养比越低、老年抚养比越高,居民消费率越低。因此,促进我国内需持续增长必须改善人口结构和老年群体消费的供求结构。     

西部民族自治地区人口年龄结构变化对居民消费的影响研究——基于动态面板数据模型的实证分析

本文以生命周期假说为基础,运用动态面板数据GMM估计方法,对我国西部民族自治地区人15／年龄结构与居民消费的关系进行了实证考察。发现老年抚养系数和少儿抚养系数均与居民消费率显著正相关。结果还发现这些地区居民消费习惯较为稳定。控制了影响居民消费的其他因素后,本文的结果基本稳健。     

人口年龄结构变化影响城乡居民消费率的效应差异研究——来自中国省级面板数据的证据

文章通过扩展世代交叠模型,考察了人口年龄结构变化对一国居民消费率的影响.基于2000～2013年中国省级面板数据,系统广义矩估计和门槛回归结果表明:在城镇地区,少儿抚养比和老年抚养比对消费率均产生正向影响,且该正向影响都随收入增长率的提高而减弱;而在农村地区,少儿抚养比和老年抚养比对消费率均产生负效应,少儿抚养比的负效应随收入增长率的提高而增强,老年抚养比的负效应却呈现“倒U型”特征.研究结论表明:生命周期消费理论在中国只适用于城镇地区,并不适用于农村地区,人口年龄结构变化影响城乡居民消费率的效应差异十分显著.城镇地区少儿抚养比的大幅下降和农村地区老年抚养比的持续上升是中国居民消费率长期走低的重要原因.     

河南省农村人口年龄结构对消费影响的实证分析

本文利用1987～2008年年度资料对河南省农村人口年龄结构影响农村居民消费的情况进行分析,发现少儿抚养系数、老年抚养系数与消费存在长期协整关系,并且少儿抚养系数对农村居民消费有显著的正影响,老年抚养系数对消费的影响不显著。因此,提出通过加大农村教育投入、完善农村养老保障、细分市场来应对人口年龄结构变化对消费的影响。     

中国人口年龄结构与消费关系的区域研究

利用1989～2008年间各省市的面板数据,分析了中国各区域居民消费率与人口年龄结构之间的关系,研究表明:中国少儿抚养比与消费率呈同向变动关系;老年抚养比与消费率呈反向变动关系,拒绝了生命周期假说。少儿抚养比降低对西部地区消费的影响高于中东部地区;老龄化对东部地区消费的抑制作用高于中西部地区。     

中国农村人口结构与居民消费研究

本文运用生命周期模型、家庭储蓄需求模型和家庭生育决策理论等分析了人口结构变化对居民消费的影响渠道,并利用2001～2009年中国农村省际面板数据对人口年龄结构、性别结构与居民消费的关系进行了经验分析。研究表明,农村少儿抚养比与农村居民消费率显著负相关,农村老年抚养比与农村居民消费率显著正相关,而农村人口性别比系数的稳健性较差。     

中国各地区人口年龄结构变动的消费效应分析

消费是影响一国经济增长的重要因素,对于影响消费的众多因素研究,大多基于收入分配不均和收入不确定性视角,而忽略了另外一个非常重要的因素,那就是人口年龄结构变化对消费的影响效应。上世纪70年代计划生育政策的推行和人口预期寿命的延长,加快了我国人口转变及老龄化发展的步伐,这一转变必将改变居民的储蓄消费行为,影响储蓄-消费模式和消费率。基于我国2002-2008年省级面板数据,本文研究了各地区人口转变对消费率的影响。研究表明,消费率与少儿抚养比、老年抚养比之间分别存在正相关关系与负相关关系。     

吉林省四项人口指标预测

<正> 在人口预测中,研究人口的出生,死亡等自然变化自然重要,同时也应根据社会、经济发展需要,研究人口的婚姻、年龄结构等有关指标的变化。我们在吉林省人口多方案预测中,研究了女性初婚人数、年龄中位数、老年人口系数、总抚养指数等预测结     

View Grandeur by Details and Fill Feelings in Scenery

正Chen Chenyi is one of my very valued painters.For many years,he has been assiduous in painting.Influenced by his family since childhood,he possesses profound artistic cultivation and solid basic painting skills.His pursuit in Chinese painting is refl ected in his constant exploration in the artistic conception of the painting’s general     

Statistical Communiqué on Human Resources and Social Security Development in 2013

正In 2013,under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Party and the State Council and with the focus on major objectives of the Party and the state,China adhered to the main work line of orienting by people’s livelihood and giving priority to talents;laid equal emphasis on both normal operation and internal construction;comprehensively promoted scientific development,reform and innovation of human resources and social security undertakings and     

Health and Happiness for All ——2014 International Day of Families China Commemoration Meeting was Held in Beijing

正May 15th is the International Day of Families.The United Nations has set the theme of this year for the Day as Families Matter for the Achievement of Development Goals.The theme for China is Health for Everyone and Happiness for Each Family.In order to do well in publicizing     

Arrests of Fugitive Economic Crime Suspects Abroad： Fox Hunt 2014 in Action

正In 2014,China launched a massive global Fox Hunt operation to arrest fugitives and recover the embezzled money and intensifi ed the pace to captur e corrupt officials overseas.Some media analysts believe the government tries to deter"those corrupt offi cials who decide to run away for good after being fully fed by embezzled money":foreign countries are not their boltholes any more."The movements of quite a large number     

Green Pu’er City and the Cloud Tea

正If being asked which is the largest city of Yunnan,nine out of ten people would give the wrong answer-just as some people would reply that Toronto is the capital of Canada,Sydney is the capital of Australia and Guilin is the capital of Gaungxi.In fact,the largest city of Yunnan is Pu’er,not Kunming.Many people are familiar with Pu’er because of Pu’er Tea.They believe the place"Pu’er"is named after the tea.But the     

National Health and Family Planning Commission Issued Action Plan for National Health Literacy Promotion 2014-2020

正Health literacy is the ability of a person to obtain and understand basic healthcare information and service and make appropriate decisions to maintain and improve one’s own health by applying that information and service.It is not only an important indicator to evaluate health and family planning work and people’s health status,but also a     

China will Promote Establish ment of Classified Diagnosis and Treatment System and Reform Medical Insurance Payment System

正According to Xinhuanet,during the Forum on Pilots of Urban Public Hospital Comprehensive Reform held in Sanming City of Fujian Province,Dr.Li Bin,Minister of National Health and Family Planning Commission(NHFPC)indicated that the pilots of public hospital reform would promote the establishment of classifi ed diagnosis and treatment system.Li said the medical consortium connected grassroots medical institutions to major hospitals on both ends.It had     

Statistical Communique on Development of Disabled Persons Undertaking in China in 2013

正In 2013,the sixth national congress of China Disabled Persons'Federation(CDPF)was convened successfully,which had provided important idealogical and organizational guarantees for promoting innovation and development at a new starting point.Under the effective leadership and guidance of the Party Central Committee and the State Council,Party and government departments had attached great importance,CDPF worked hard,all     

“Poststroke Rescue”Public Welfare Project Plans to Provide Services to 100 000 Shanghai Rural Elderly

正According to Chinanews.com,"Pinetree Poststroke Rescue"public welfare project,which aims at providing social assistance for stroke patients,has established the first rural rehabilitation nursing station in Minhang district of Shanghai on April 3,2014.The public projects has planned to fully cover nine districts in Shanghai suburbs and expect to deliver services to more than 100 000 rural elderly.The organization founder Wang Yanni introduced the"beautiful rural trilogy"strategy.First,by working with     

Low Fertility Trap:Theories,Facts and Implications

The low Fertility Trap Hypothesis proposes that there are three self-reinforcing mechanism--demographic,sociological and economic,working towards a downward spiral in future fertility.Once TFR drops below 1.5,it will be difficult to recover.The fertility recovery emerging in many countries across the world has changed the lowfertility trap theory and also the justification of the theory itself.So low-fertility trap is more likely a pattern summarized from a short-time phenomenon than a generalized social law.As with China,the current fertility level is above 1.5 births per woman,and China is not in the "Low-fertility trap".Moreover,most recent surveys suggests that current fertility intention in China is above 1.8 births per woman and more than60 percent of people would have a second child if there is an adjustment of fertility policy.In addition,birth postponement is still playing an important role in reducing TFR in China.Thus,with the high fertility intention,adjustment of family planning policy and decreasing tempo effect,TFR in China will experience upturn but not further decline in the near future.It is lack of evidence to conclude that China has already been or is going to be trapped in low fertility.