On a mixture autoregressive model

We generalize the Gaussian mixture transition distribution (GMTD) model introduced by Le and co-workers to the mixture autoregressive (MAR) model for the modelling of non-linear time series. The models consist of a mixture of K stationary or non-stationary AR components. The advantages of the MAR model over the GMTD model include a more full range of shape changing predictive distributions and the ability to handle cycles and conditional heteroscedasticity in the time series. The stationarity conditions and autocorrelation function are derived. The estimation is easily done via a simple EM algorithm and the model selection problem is addressed. The shape changing feature of the conditional distributions makes these models capable of modelling time series with multimodal conditional distributions and with heteroscedasticity. The models are applied to two real data sets and compared with other competing models. The MAR models appear to capture features of the data better than other competing models do.     

A mixture integer-valued ARCH model

We propose a mixture integer-valued ARCH model for modeling integer-valued time series with overdispersion. The model consists of a mixture of K stationary or non-stationary integer-valued ARCH components. The advantages of the mixture model over the single-component model include the ability to handle multimodality and non-stationary components. The necessary and sufficient first- and second-order stationarity conditions, the necessary arbitrary-order stationarity conditions, and the autocorrelation function are derived. The estimation of parameters is done through an EM algorithm, and the model is selected by three information criterions, whose performances are studied via simulations. Finally, the model is applied to a real dataset.     

A likelihood-based constrained algorithm for multivariate normal mixture models

It is well known that the log-likelihood function for samples coming from normal mixture distributions may present spurious maxima and singularities. For this reason here we reformulate some Hathaways results and we propose two constrained estimation procedures for multivariate normal mixture modelling according to the likelihood approach. Their perfomances are illustrated on the grounds of some numerical simulations based on the EM algorithm. A comparison between multivariate normal mixtures and the hot-deck approach in missing data imputation is also considered.Salvatore Ingrassia: S. Ingrassia carried out the research as part of the project Metodi Statistici e Reti Neuronali per lAnalisi di Dati Complessi (PRIN 2000, resp. G. Lunetta).     

An Alternative Estimation Method for the Semiparametric Accelerated Failure Time Mixture Cure Model

We propose an alternative estimation method for the semiparametric accelerated failure time mixture cure model by incorporating the profile likelihood into the M-step of the EM algorithm. The proposed method performs as well as the existing methods when the censoring is light and better than the existing methods when the censoring is moderate from the simulation studies. Regarding to the computational time, the proposed method runs faster than the existing methods.     

Maximum likelihood estimation in vector autoregressive models with multivariate scaled t-distributed innovations using EM-based algorithms

This article is concerned with the likelihood-based inference of vector autoregressive models with multivariate scaled t-distributed innovations by applying the EM-based (ECM and ECME) algorithms. The ECM and ECME algorithms, which are analytically quite simple to use, are applied to find the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters and then compared based on the computational running time and the accuracy of estimation via a simulation study. The results demonstrate that the ECME is efficient and usable in practice. We also show how the method can be applied to a multivariate dataset.     

Modelling change in cognitive understanding with finite mixtures

Psychological theories often posit the existence of several different states. Individuals are viewed as belonging to one of the states at a given age, but with development pass to another state. A main problem in evaluating such theories is representing the transition from one state to another over age. A stochastic transition framework is proposed which should be useful in many different settings. The model is illustrated with data from a cognitive development task.     

A Generalization of Turnbull’s Estimator for Interval-Censored and Doubly Truncated Data

Nonparametric estimates of the conditional distribution of a response variable given a covariate are important for data exploration purposes. In this article, we propose a nonparametric estimator of the conditional distribution function in the case where the response variable is subject to interval censoring and double truncation. Using the approach of Dehghan and Duchesne (2011), the proposed method consists in adding weights that depend on the covariate value in the self-consistency equation of Turnbull (1976), which results in a nonparametric estimator. We demonstrate by simulation that the estimator, bootstrap variance estimation and bandwidth selection all perform well in finite samples.     

A new model selection procedure for finite mixture regression models

Abstract

In this article, we propose a new penalized-likelihood method to conduct model selection for finite mixture of regression models. The penalties are imposed on mixing proportions and regression coefficients, and hence order selection of the mixture and the variable selection in each component can be simultaneously conducted. The consistency of order selection and the consistency of variable selection are investigated. A modified EM algorithm is proposed to maximize the penalized log-likelihood function. Numerical simulations are conducted to demonstrate the finite sample performance of the estimation procedure. The proposed methodology is further illustrated via real data analysis.