Classes of power semicircle laws that are randomly weighted average distributions

We give an affirmative answer to the conjecture raised in Soltani and Roozegar [On distribution of randomly ordered uniform incremental weighted averages: divided difference approach. Statist Probab Lett. 2012;82(5):1012–1020] that a certain class of power semicircle distributions, parameterized by n, gives the distributions of the average of n independent and identically Arcsine random variables weighted by the cuts of (0,1) by the order statistics of a uniform (0, 1) sample of size n?1, for each n. Then we establish the central limit theorem for this class of distributions. We also use the Demni [On generalized Cauchy–Stieltjes transforms of some beta distributions. Comm Stoch Anal. 2009;3:197–210] results on the connection between the ordinary and generalized Cauchy or Stieltjes transforms, and introduce new classes of randomly weighted average distributions.     

Construction of a Markov Chain with Given Stationary Distribution

Given a rational, finite probability vector, a Markov chain is constructed having the given vector as its stationary distribution.     

On a general mixed priority queue with server discretion

We consider a single-server queueing system which attends to N priority classes that are classified into two distinct types: (i) urgent: classes which have preemptive resume priority over at least one lower priority class, and (ii) non-urgent: classes which only have non-preemptive priority among lower priority classes. While urgent customers have preemptive priority, the ultimate decision on whether to interrupt a current service is based on certain discretionary rules. An accumulating prioritization is also incorporated. The marginal waiting time distributions are obtained and numerical examples comparing the new model to other similar priority queueing systems are provided.     

Analyses of the Markov modulated fluid flow with one-sided ph-type jumps using coupled queues and the completed graphs

In this paper, we analyze Markov modulated fluid flow processes with one-sided ph-type jumps using the completed graph and also through the limits of coupled queueing processes to be constructed. For the models, we derive various results on time-dependent distributions and distributions of first passage times, and present the Riccati equations that transform matrices of the first return times to 0 satisfy. The Riccati equations enable us to compute the transform matrices using Newton’s method which is known very fast and stable. Finally, we present some duality results between the model with ph-type downward jumps and the model with ph-type upward jumps. This paper contains extended results of Ahn (2009) and probabilistic interpretations given by the completed graphs.     

Simulation algorithms for integrals of a class of sampling distributions arising in population genetics

Efficient stochastic algorithms are presented in order to simulate allele configurations distributed according to a family π _A , 0<A<∞, of exchangeable sampling distributions arising in population genetics. Each distribution π _A has two parameters n and k, the sample size and the number of alleles, respectively. For A→0, the distribution π _A is induced from neutral sampling, whereas for A→∞, it is induced from Maxwell–Boltzmann sampling. Three different Monte Carlo methods (independent sampling procedures) are provided, based on conditioning, sequential methods and a generalization of Pitmans ‘Chinese restaurant process’. Moreover, an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo method is provided. The algorithms are applied to the homozygosity test and to the Ewens–Watterson–Slatkin test in order to test the hypothesis of selective neutrality.     

Test of fit for Marshall–Olkin distributions with applications

Marshall and Olkin [1967. A multivariate exponential distribution. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 62, 30–44], introduced a bivariate distribution with exponential marginals, which generalizes the simple case of a bivariate random variable with independent exponential components. The distribution is popular under the name ‘Marshall–Olkin distribution’, and has been extended to the multivariate case. L2-type statistics are constructed for testing the composite null hypothesis of the Marshall–Olkin distribution with unspecified parameters. The test statistics utilize the empirical Laplace transform with consistently estimated parameters. Asymptotic properties pertaining to the null distribution of the test statistic and the consistency of the test are investigated. Theoretical results are accompanied by a simulation study, and real-data applications.     

A continuous-time Markov model for estimating readmission risk for hospital inpatients

Research concerning hospital readmissions has mostly focused on statistical and machine learning models that attempt to predict this unfortunate outcome for individual patients. These models are useful in certain settings, but their performance in many cases is insufficient for implementation in practice, and the dynamics of how readmission risk changes over time is often ignored. Our objective is to develop a model for aggregated readmission risk over time – using a continuous-time Markov chain – beginning at the point of discharge. We derive point and interval estimators for readmission risk, and find the asymptotic distributions for these probabilities. Finally, we validate our derived estimators using simulation, and apply our methods to estimate readmission risk over time using discharge and readmission data for surgical patients.     

Bayesian variable selection in a class of mixture models for ordinal data: a comparative study

In this paper, we consider a special finite mixture model named Combination of Uniform and shifted Binomial (CUB), recently introduced in the statistical literature to analyse ordinal data expressing the preferences of raters with regards to items or services. Our aim is to develop a variable selection procedure for this model using a Bayesian approach. Bayesian methods for variable selection and model choice have become increasingly popular in recent years, due to advances in Markov chain Monte Carlo computational algorithms. Several methods have been proposed in the case of linear and generalized linear models (GLM). In this paper, we adapt to the CUB model some of these algorithms: the Kuo–Mallick method together with its ‘metropolized’ version and the Stochastic Search Variable Selection method. Several simulated examples are used to illustrate the algorithms and to compare their performance. Finally, an application to real data is introduced.     

Distribution of busy period in stochastic fluid models

We consider the busy period in a stochastic fluid flow model with infinite buffer where the input and output rates are controlled by a finite homogeneous Markov process. We derive an explicit expression for the distribution of the busy period and we obtain an algorithm to compute it which exhibits nice numerical properties.

     

Large Deviations for Empirical Estimators of the Stationary Distribution of a Semi-Markov Process with Finite State Space

We prove the large deviation principle for empirical estimators of stationary distributions of semi-Markov processes with finite state space, irreducible embedded Markov chain, and finite mean sojourn time in each state. We consider on/off Gamma sojourn processes as an illustrative example, and, in particular, continuous time Markov chains with two states. In the second case, we compare the rate function in this article with the known rate function concerning another family of empirical estimators of the stationary distribution.     

Applying a Markov chain for the stock pricing of a novel forecasting model

In this article, a stock-forecasting model is developed to analyze a company's stock price variation related to the Taiwanese company HTC. The main difference to previous articles is that this study uses the data of the HTC in recent ten years to build a Markov transition matrix. Instead of trying to predict the stock price variation through the traditional approach to the HTC stock problem, we integrate two types of Markov chain that are used in different ways. One is a regular Markov chain, and the other is an absorbing Markov chain. Through a regular Markov chain, we can obtain important information such as what happens in the long run or whether the distribution of the states tends to stabilize over time in an efficient way. Next, we used an artificial variable technique to create an absorbing Markov chain. Thus, we used an absorbing Markov chain to provide information about the period between the increases before arriving at the decreasing state of the HTC stock. We provide investors with information on how long the HTC stock will keep increasing before its price begins to fall, which is extremely important information to them.     

Bayesian inference for a flexible class of bivariate beta distributions

Several bivariate beta distributions have been proposed in the literature. In particular, Olkin and Liu [A bivariate beta distribution. Statist Probab Lett. 2003;62(4):407–412] proposed a 3 parameter bivariate beta model which Arnold and Ng [Flexible bivariate beta distributions. J Multivariate Anal. 2011;102(8):1194–1202] extend to 5 and 8 parameter models. The 3 parameter model allows for only positive correlation, while the latter models can accommodate both positive and negative correlation. However, these come at the expense of a density that is mathematically intractable. The focus of this research is on Bayesian estimation for the 5 and 8 parameter models. Since the likelihood does not exist in closed form, we apply approximate Bayesian computation, a likelihood free approach. Simulation studies have been carried out for the 5 and 8 parameter cases under various priors and tolerance levels. We apply the 5 parameter model to a real data set by allowing the model to serve as a prior to correlated proportions of a bivariate beta binomial model. Results and comparisons are then discussed.     

Global prior distributions for the analysis of discrete graphical models

Summary We propose a new class of prior distributions for the analysis of discrete graphical models. Such a class, obtained following a conditional approach, generalizes the hyper Dirichlet distributions of Dawid and Lauritzen (1993), since it can be extended to non decomposable graphical models. The two classes are compared in terms of model selection, with an application to a medical data-set illustrating the performance of the two resulting procedures. The proposed class turns out to select simpler, more par-simonious structures.     

Information matrix for a mixture of two Laplace distributions

The Fisher information matrix for a mixture of two Laplace distributions is derived. Numerical tabulations of the matrix and a computer program are provided for practical purposes. The work is motivated by two real–life examples discussed in Hsu (Appl Stat 28:62–72, 1979) and Bhowmick et al. (Biostatistics 7:630–641, 2006).      

A hierarchical Bayesian regression model for the uncertain functional constraint using screened scale mixtures of Gaussian distributions

This paper considers a hierarchical Bayesian analysis of regression models using a class of Gaussian scale mixtures. This class provides a robust alternative to the common use of the Gaussian distribution as a prior distribution in particular for estimating the regression function subject to uncertainty about the constraint. For this purpose, we use a family of rectangular screened multivariate scale mixtures of Gaussian distribution as a prior for the regression function, which is flexible enough to reflect the degrees of uncertainty about the functional constraint. Specifically, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian regression model for the constrained regression function with uncertainty on the basis of three stages of a prior hierarchy with Gaussian scale mixtures, referred to as a hierarchical screened scale mixture of Gaussian regression models (HSMGRM). We describe distributional properties of HSMGRM and an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for posterior inference, and apply the proposed model to real applications with constrained regression models subject to uncertainty.     

A new class of multivariate skew distributions with applications to bayesian regression models

Abstract: The authors develop a new class of distributions by introducing skewness in multivariate elliptically symmetric distributions. The class, which is obtained by using transformation and conditioning, contains many standard families including the multivariate skew‐normal and t distributions. The authors obtain analytical forms of the densities and study distributional properties. They give practical applications in Bayesian regression models and results on the existence of the posterior distributions and moments under improper priors for the regression coefficients. They illustrate their methods using practical examples.     

Stochastic Templates for Aquaculture Images and a Parallel Pattern Detector

A general statistical approach is presented for the identification of objects in digital images, motivated by an application in aquaculture involving underwater images of fish. Using Procrustes analysis, a point distribution model is fitted on a set of training images and used as a prior distribution for the shape of a deformable template. The likelihood of a proposed template is calculated in terms of the response from a feature detector along the boundary of the template. The posterior distribution of template variables is examined by using Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis. A key challenge in the aquaculture application is the variable nature of edges arising from the surface curvature of fish and the low contrast between the foreground and background. Conventional gradient-based edge detection proves inadequate, but a parallel pattern detector copes much better. Results are presented for a fully automated analysis of the database. The strengths and weaknesses of this approach are discussed and future developments are outlined.     

On conditional correlations defined by a class of nonlinearly truncated distributions and their applications

This article derives and studies several types of conditional correlations. The correlations are obtained by a class of two-piece scale mixture skew-normal distributions. The class is obtained by applying a set of nonlinear constraints to the bivariate scale mixture of normal distributions. The correlations of the class are invariant with respect to the choice of the scale mixing function, however, they are dependent upon the type of the nonlinear truncation. Moreover, their respective upper and lower limits are no longer 1.00 and?1.00. They are useful for the truncated data analysis, the multivariate interdependence methods (such as the principal component analysis and the factor analysis), and the random truncation modelling. Some distributional properties and the Bayesian computation of the correlations are considered when developing necessary theories and providing illustrative examples, respectively. Two applications are also given to demonstrate the usefulness of the conditional correlations in a multivariate analysis.     

Estimation of the population spectral distribution from a large dimensional sample covariance matrix

This paper introduces a new method to estimate the spectral distribution of a population covariance matrix from high-dimensional data. The method is founded on a meaningful generalization of the seminal Mar?enko–Pastur equation, originally defined in the complex plane, to the real line. Beyond its easy implementation and the established asymptotic consistency, the new estimator outperforms two existing estimators from the literature in almost all the situations tested in a simulation experiment. An application to the analysis of the correlation matrix of S&P 500 daily stock returns is also given.