Estimates of fertility in Bangladesh

The attempt is made to estimate fertility levels in Bangladesh on the basis of data collected during the 1974 Census. In the 1st section attention is directed to providing an overall picture of the demographic situation in the country. Comparisons between the 1961 and 1974 data demonstrates that the 1974 Census data provide consistent results. Factors such as the degree of urbanization, literacy and economic participation rates--considered as indicators of development--all seem to show little progress during the intercensal period. The use of child/women ratios (CWRs) provides plausible evidence of the likelihood of a fertility decline. A decline in CWR values is small for "all areas" but a marked decline can be noted for "urban areas." The recorded mean number of children is less in 1974 than in 1961 for women under age 35 whereas for the older groups the 1974 Census shows higher mean numbers. The Bangladesh Fertility Survey (BFS) data result for the total fertility rate of 6.58 is very close to that estimated for the 1974 Census--6.59. The reverse survival method also indicates that birthrates have been lower during the 1969-1974 period.     

资源整合:上海农业物流园区新型发展模式

21世纪的农业已不再仅仅是第一产业的概念,上海增强农业综合竞争力的战略定位应从依托土地资源的传统耕种农业转向以市场、贸易、科技、信息资源为坚实支撑的现代农业。上海农业物流要以产业融合、产业集聚和知识经济为思路,全力构筑融农产品交易、物流、展览、旅游、培训功能为一体的农业物流园区,实现以市带农,以商强农,以技精农,以游延农的农业产业化发展目标。     

Population,environment and sustainable development

The present population of Sri Lanka (17.7 million) is sufficient to create concern about the use, limitations, and waste of natural resources. Between 1871 and 1946, the population grew at an average rate of 1.4% annually, with high fertility and mortality. The population doubled between 1946 and 1981, and mortality declined. Between 1971 and 1991, the rate of growth declined due to a decrease in fertility and an increase in emigration. With a growth rate of 1.4%, the population will again double to 35 million by 2040. Technological improvements in Sri Lanka have led to an eight-fold increase in metric tons of rice production, but the growth in population has caused a deficiency in output so that basic per capita caloric requirements are not being met. Increased productivity has almost depleted the area available for cultivation, and the use of fertilizers to increase yields has environmental drawbacks. The high fertility of the 1970s contributed to increased labor force participation rates of 2.2%, which resulted in more people joining the labor force than leaving. Thus, the employment market has been unable to absorb the unemployed or potential new workers. Growth of the employment market may also conflict with environmental protection, as exemplified by the mining of the coral reef on the southwestern coast. The conversion of forests to agriculture resulted in forest losses of about 42,000 hectares per year during 1956-83. Deforestation is also occurring in the high forests due to increased pressure for fuelwood. In the wet zone, the use of forests for fuelwood is declining, but rubber wood is being harvested for industrial production. In order to slow population growth to replacement levels by the year 2000 (with a total population of 25 million), contraceptive prevalence must be increased to 72% at a cost of about $25 million.     

State-by-state variations in high-tech employment through the great recession

This paper explores the relationship between state-level high-tech employment and state economic development, labor, and tax policies over the 2007–2012 period. During this period national high-tech manufacturing employment decreased, national high-tech service employment increased and the nation experienced a severe recession. Overall high-tech employment grew very little during this time period but changes in high-tech employment varied substantially from state-to-state. This paper asks why. A two-stage empirical model is developed and estimated. Among other things the results indicate that these policies did influence employment in the period although perhaps in unexpected ways.     

农村劳动力转移就业的多元路径选择

长期以来，我国农村劳动力转移就业基本上是以流向东部沿海经济发达地区为主的单一模式。近年来，受东部沿海地区产业向中西部地区转移进程加快和内地经济快速发展的影响，区域间的比较优势逐渐弱化，农村劳动力远距离就业的选择空间越来越大，当地政府必须通过调整农业经济结构、鼓励农民自主创业、加大招商引资力度和开辟国外劳务市场等途径探索多元转移就业路径，实现农村劳动力合理转移就业。     

论我国农村城镇化与农业的协调发展

农业与城市化之间存在着内在的必然联系,农业发展对城镇化具有食物贡献、原料贡献、劳力贡献、土地贡献和资金贡献;城镇化对农业发展有市场贡献、结构贡献、就业贡献、规模贡献和资金贡献.发展经验表明,城镇化和农业发展的关系存在着两种实践模式城镇化与农业协调发展的美国模式;城镇化与农业发展不协调的英国模式.协调我国城镇化推进与农业发展的关系,要遵循农业与城镇化之间内在联系的基本规律,借鉴成功的发展经验,在战略选择上坚持五个原则,在具体政策上要突出六个重点.     

Does female employment affect fertility? Evidence from the United Kingdom

This paper tests the validity of the proposition that there is a causal relationship between fertility choice and female employment in a multivariate framework during the period 1958–1998 in the United Kingdom. Following recent advances in economic and demographic theory the nexus between female employment and fertility is reexamined taking into account changes in the labor market and the overall real economic activity. Our key finding is that expanding the estimating equations to control for the influences of changes in real wages and real output creates a positive relationship between fertility and female employment and a negative relationship between fertility and real wages. Finally, fertility choice should not be considered exogenous to the female employment, the labor market or the growth process.     

家庭与市场：中国农村的非农就业模式探究

本文基于中国综合社会调查(CGSS)2005数据探讨了中国农村家庭的非农就业模式。随着农户家庭在集体农业的解体后成为重要的生产主体,部分农民从家庭农业中疏离而成为工薪阶层或者进入增长中的私营经济部门。本文的第一个模型采用logistic回归在个人层面估测已婚男性和女性在农业或者非农经济部门中就业的机会,第二个模型则探究在夫妇层面选择四种就业模式的可能性：夫妇双方,夫妇中的一方（丈夫或妻子）,或者没有任何一方从事非农职业。两个模型支持了教育水平对非农就业机会的正面作用。妇女的就业方式对于祖父母的支持效应和子女的付出效应更为敏感,但祖父母所起的作用受到本身年龄的制约。同时,男性的就业优势对家庭在职业上的性别分工并没有显著的推动作用。模型结果也表明,家庭就业模式的形成是和市场层面的因素,如村庄的地理位置,经济发展特征和劳动力状况紧密联系在一起的。另外,东部和中部地区在提供非农就业机会方面,相对于西部地区具备了一定的优势条件。     

The politics and economics of food and famine in Bangladesh in the early 1970s – with special reference to Amartya Sen's interpretation of the 1974 famine

Bangladesh confronted two formidable food crises in 1972 and 1974. While the government succeeded in averting a widely predicted famine in the first case, it failed to prevent an actual famine in the later case when such a cataclysmic disaster was least anticipated. Evidence suggests that the 1974 famine was caused by successive onslaughts of natural disasters such as floods and droughts, and man-made disasters such as the government's inability to import foods, the directing of subsidised food to the politically vocal urban population, an abrupt fall in food aid and political and administrative corruption that encouraged massive hoarding and the smuggling of food grain. This article argues that Noble Laureate economist Amartya Sen's seminal analysis of the 1974 Bangladesh famine on the basis of his 'entitlement approach' fails to capture most of these circumventing factors. The article also argues that by undermining the politico-administrative dynamics of the famine, and by applying his entitlement approach only half-heartedly in examining it, Sen somewhat trivialises the sufferings of a famine-affected population under a corrupt and inefficient political regime.     

Microfinance as a Development and Poverty Alleviation Tool in Rural Bangladesh: A Critical Assessment

Poverty is multidimensional in nature and exists in every part of the world. Microfinance is considered one of the most important programs to achieve poverty reduction, particularly in Bangladesh. It has been estimated that nearly 45% of Bangladesh's population lives below the poverty line. This qualitative research study was conducted in order to determine the effectiveness of microfinance programs and the contributing factors to the high‐level of poverty among microfinance beneficiaries in the district of Bogra, Bangladesh. Study findings indicated that microfinance programs were ineffective as a result of high interest rates; insufficient loans; unproductive use of loans; corruption and poor skills of microfinance institution staff; weekly repayment schedules; and physical and mental harassment of poor women. Additionally, the lack of employment opportunities, education, healthcare facilities and social safety nets; natural disasters; the dowry system; and the rising cost of basic daily needs have also contributed to chronic poverty.     

提高农民素质是解决我国劳动力就业压力的根本途径

加入WTO ,会对我国农业生产造成巨大的冲击 ,农村剩余劳动力的问题会更加严峻。只有提高农民的科技文化素质 ,才能有更多的农民进得了城。也只有这样 ,才能提升我国的企业素质 ,提升我国的城镇素质。因此 ,提高农民素质 ,解决农民再就业是解决我国就业问题的关键。而提高农民素质的关键又在于加大农村教育的力度 ,搞好农民教育。     

Pitfalls of tourism development in Ethiopia: the case of Bahir Dar town and its surroundings

The history of tourism is one of the neglected themes in Ethiopian history. In Ethiopia, the development of modern tourism as an important economic sector can be traced back to the imperial regime. This was when the Ethiopian Tourist Organization (ETO) was founded in 1961. From then until the overthrow of the regime in 1974, the development of tourism showed a remarkable and smooth upward trend, as measured by the arrival of tourists. However, shortly after the military government assumed power in 1974, the growth of tourism was subject to adverse political and socioeconomic crises. The sector experienced a downward trend, with the number of annual tourist visits steadily decreasing from 50,220 to 28,984 at the national level. However, the seizure of power by a new government in 1991 brought about an environment relatively conducive to the growth of tourism with the adoption of a free market, relative stability, and infrastructure development. This paper sheds light on the history of tourism and its challenges in the context of the political, economic, and ideological shifts through three consecutive political regimes in Ethiopia: the imperial, Derg, and EPRDF. Information was collected from primary sources through interviews and focus group discussions with tourists, experts, hotel managers, and tour guides. Published and unpublished government reports were also consulted.     

The sociology of neoclassical exploitation

The sociological basis of labor terms in Cobb-Douglas production functions is developed by means of a general labor output function which adds moral inducements to the conventional variables—wages and force. Discussion of the relationships implied by the general equation highlights the need for plainly stated assumptions regarding the declining marginal utility of factors and the possibilities for minimizing the use of force in employment. It is shown that a functional labor term cannot be fully explained by wages even if labor is paid its marginal product. Portions of the labor term must be accounted for by moral inducements which accrue to employers primarily in the form of socially and culturally generated free goods. Discussion of ideological implications of permanent nonzero coercion theoretical terms.     

发展循环经济型生态农业的思考——以广西兴安县为例

循环经济是以追求更大经济效益、更少资源消耗、更低环境污染和更多劳动就业为目标的先进经济模式。循环经济型生态农业是把循环经济发展理念和模式运用到农业,深度利用农村种植养殖业产生的废弃物和以农产品为原料的城市工业及乡镇企业产生的废弃物,化害为利,变废为宝,产生显著经济、社会、环境效益的生态农业类型。广西兴安县通过龙头企业带动,沼气的综合利用,以及政府的政策引导,积极扶持龙头企业参与循环经济型生态农业建设,取得很好实效,并给我们带来许多的启示和思考。     

Local employment concentration and hourly earnings

Using data from the 1980 PUMS D and OLS regression, I indirectly test a model of how local labor market structure affects individual hourly earnings through the intra-area rollout effect. I find (1) beyond influencing wages through the jobs individuals receive, the local labor market's employment structure has a very small impact on individual hourly earnings and (2) local employment concentration in high paying industries tends to have a positive impact on individual net hourly earnings; employment concentration in low paying industries tends to negatively influence individual net hourly earnings.     

Getting low educated and older people into work: The role of fiscal policy

Raising employment, in particular employment among older individuals and low educated individuals, stands high on the agenda of policy makers in many OECD countries. Increased sensitivity in recent years to rising inequality has made the challenge only larger. In this paper we evaluate alternative fiscal policy scenarios to face this challenge. We construct and use an overlapping generations model for an open economy where individuals differ not only by age, but also by innate ability and human capital. The model allows us to study effects on aggregate employment, per capita income and welfare, as well as effects for specific age and ability groups. We show that well-considered fiscal policy changes can significantly improve macroeconomic productive efficiency, without increasing intergenerational or intragenerational welfare inequality. Our results strongly prefer a reduction in the labor tax rate on older workers and on all low-wage earners, financed by an overall reduction in non-employment benefits. An alternative financing option is to raise the consumption tax rate. These results are to be seen as long-run effects for economies at potential output.     

当前我国社会法若干问题的思考

在刚刚启动的以经济建设为中心转向以经济社会发展为中心的转型与国际金融危机碰撞后,危机前的民生问题在危机后更加严重,转型更加紧迫,更需要以劳动法和社会保障法为中心的社会法作为阻隔经济危机引发社会危机的防火墙发挥作用。为此,需要对社会法的若干问题重新思考,例如,对用工成本应当作广义理解,并对以不正当转嫁为特点用工成本负担结构做出调整;劳动关系协调机制建设不宜单项突进,而应当整体进化;土地承包经营权流转应当与农民的非农就业和社会保障同步联动。     

Agricultural policies and development: A socioeconomic investigation applied to Sri Lanka

This paper explores the interrelationship between agricultural policies and development by means of a dynamically recursive, computable general equilibrium model applied to Sri Lanka. The agricultural policies investigated include elimination of the food subsidy, land reform, and technical change in agriculture. The goals considered are the levels and growth rates of GNP and employment, the distribution of income, and the real income level of the lowest income group. The study provides a quantitative assessment of the association between policies and goals and identifies the key economic mechanisms in this association.     

农民增收:世纪之交的沉重课题

世纪之交中国农民增收缓慢 ,其主要原因有农业投入不足 ,基础脆弱 ,经营规模小 ,生产水平落后 ,人口不断增加 ,耕地、水资源等环境压力越来越大 ,农民科学文化素质不高 ,农产品科技含量低等。加速农民增收的思路是减少农民 ,取消对农民的各种歧视 ,打破城乡壁垒 ,发展地区经济 ,为农村富裕劳动力转移创造更多的岗位     

论农民工在金融危机下的弹性就业应对机制

从长时段的生命历程来看,农民工会依循年龄的层级不断变换工种,直至最后回村务农,这意味着村庄在同一时间点通过农民的年龄分层构成了并存的＂外出流＂与＂返乡流＂。在宏观经济下行时,年龄处于返乡期的农民工提前回村,而当经济回暖时,他们中的一部分又会到城市寻找工作。在以＂年＂为单位的时间循环中,不同年龄段的村民通过土地使用权的流转形成了动态的分工,乡村社会呈现出富有弹性的就业格局,从而在经济波动中具备了一定的承受能力。