Are there electoral cycles of emigration? An empirical investigation based on European data

Economic literature suggests that economic factors and the availability of amenities act as determinants of migration choices together with socio‐demographic factors. Migration has also been found to be the consequence of political instability. This article argues that specific political events, i.e., democratic elections, may be linked to migration flows. By using European data over the 1999‐2012 time period, our system GMM estimations reveal that there is an emigration political cycle across European democracies and across the young democracies of Central and Eastern European countries. We observe that regular elections tend to diminish emigration ratios, whereas endogenous elections have the opposite effect. These results suggest special challenges for governments and oppositions, which are also discussed.     

EU Integration & Emigration Consequences: The Case of Lithuania

This paper analyses the causes, consequences, and policy implications of Lithuanian emigration following the country’s European Union (EU) accession in May 2004. After placing Lithuanian emigration in its historical context, the study assesses the recent dynamics, including the driving forces and characteristics of Lithuanian emigration at both the international and domestic level. The study finds that the primary determinants of this movement are both demand‐ and supply‐side factors. On the demand side, the labour shortages, decline in the working age population, and desire for cheaper labour in Western European countries function to attract Lithuanian labour. Concurrently, lower wages, higher unemployment, and the generally less developed economic conditions in Lithuania are encouraging Lithuanians to take advantage of the greater mobility that came with EU accession. The expanding networks linking migrants and potential migrants are facilitating this out‐migration, as well as the social mind‐set by which emigration is a perceived solution to socio‐economic difficulties. This study concludes that the consequences of this new emigration reality are mixed. The free movement of workers has helped to relieve pressure on the domestic labour market, drive down unemployment, place upward pressure on wages, and increase the remittances rate to Lithuania. However, concern is not ill‐founded; recent emigration has introduced labour market shortages, placed greater demographic pressure on the country, and increased the likelihood of brain drain. This study argues, therefore, that while Lithuanian emigration cannot and should not be stopped, Lithuania does have policy alternatives as a sending‐country that will help to mitigate the costs of emigration and maximize the benefits for the country’s long‐term development.     

Emigration dynamics from and within South Asia

This review of current knowledge about emigration dynamics from and within South Asia (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) opens with a brief history of the three phases of emigration from the area since the 1830s (plantation labor; postindependence to the UK, US, Canada, and Australia; and labor migration to the oil-exporting countries). The influence of the creation of Pakistan and Bangladesh is also covered as are British colonial and commonwealth policies. It is noted that migration data are incomplete and that India exhibits an ambivalence about collecting such information. The discussion then turns to emigration since 1970 and considers permanent migration from South Asia to the traditional receivers; South Asian asylum seekers in Europe; South Asian refugees, illegal migrants, migrant workers (flows and destinations), the stock of contract migrant workers (and their characteristics); returnee migrant workers; and skill levels. Analysis is provided of macro level determinants of emigrations such as gross national product (level and growth), the general demographic and social situation, labor force growth and structure, poverty and inequality, and internal and international migration. Environmental factors causing displacement in Southern Asia include floods, cyclones, river bank erosion, drought, and desertification. Global warming could displace millions of people in the region, and development projects have contributed to displacement. The remainder of the report covers political and ethnic factors, micro-factors influencing migration decision-making, the policies of sending and receiving countries, the consequences of emigration, and the potential for migration in the future.     

Foreign Student Emigration to the United States: Pathways of Entry,Demographic Antecedents,and Origin‐Country Contexts

This study uses data from various sources to examine the determinants of trends in international student migration to the United States. Our results highlight the differential contributions to these trends made by various entry pathways. For example, we find that the overall growth was driven by students using visas that offered the least possibility of US employment following the completion of their studies. We also find that overall student migration trends were significantly affected by global demographic changes. For example, student emigration from Europe was negatively affected by declining fertility trends, percentage of youths, and youth population size. In Asia and Africa, contrasting demographic trends explained the substantial student migration increases observed from these regions. Increases in youth population size had a particularly positive effect on student migration in contexts of economic growth. Finally, the analysis finds a declining significance of English language contexts for fueling overall student migration trends.     

An overview of present and future emigration dynamics in South Asia

The author presents preliminary findings on selected aspects of the dynamics which govern emigration from and within the South Asian region comprised of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The paper attempts to identify some of the major reasons for observed migration flows and how the future may be envisaged especially in view of government programs, policies, and priorities. Contract labor migration is given special attention since it has become the predominant type of migration in the region. Sections consider a possible conceptual framework; measuring emigration pressure or potential; data and data problems; the volume of emigration since 1970; South Asian migrant workers; macro-level determinants of emigration; community, family, and individual factors; and sending country policies. The consequences of emigration are discussed in terms of the impacts upon the labor force and non-economic consequences. Observations for the future conclude the paper. Analysis of the dynamics of emigration from South Asia indicate an urgent need to improve data on various forms of emigration, that relevant officials in countries of origin have a longstanding concern about the exploitation of workers in sending as well as receiving countries, and the need to better understand the linkages between various factors relevant to the emigration process. An understanding of such linkages would allow for more realistic policies and planning for future emigration.     

The determinants of modern Maltese emigration

The author evaluates studies by Huw R. Jones and Russell King concerning the determinants of emigration from Malta and tests a new set of migration functions using cross-sectional and time-series data for the inter-censal years 1957 to 1967. Jones and King concluded that emigration was influenced more by socio-demographic factors than by economic forces. In the present article, the author concludes that economic factors did influence the decision to migrate from Malta. The policy implications of these findings are also considered. (summary in FRE, SPA)     

Demography of Illicit Emigration from China: A Sending Country's Perspective

This paper examines the demographic trends of international migration from China, particularly from Fujian Province in the 1980s and 1990s, comparing the characteristics of emigrants with nonemigrants. This research yields two major findings. First, Fujian Province became a leading immigrant-sending province in the mid-1990s. Second, there have also been changes in socioeconomic status (SES) selectivity of emigration from Fujian from 1990 to 1995. In particular, this change in emigration selectivity is characterized by a significant shift from urbanites to rural peasants. The future prospects of emigration from Fujian and China are explored.     

Emigration dynamics of eastern African countries

This examination of emigration dynamics focuses on 13 countries extending from Eritrea to Zimbabwe and Mozambique on the eastern African mainland and on 5 Indian Ocean island nations. The first part of the study looks at the temporal, spatial, and structural perspectives of emigration dynamics. Part 2 considers international migration in the region according to Appleyard's typology (permanent settlers, labor migration, refugees, and illegal migrants) with the additional category of return migration. Measurement issues in emigration dynamics are discussed in part 3, and the demographic/economic setting is the topic of part 4. The demographic factors emphasized include spatial distribution, population density, population structure, population dynamics, demographic transition, and the relationship between internal and international migration. Other major topics of this section of the study are the economic base, the human resource base, population and natural resources, the sociocultural context (emigration, chain migration, return migration, and migration linkages and networks), political factors (including human rights, minority rights and security, regional integration and economic cooperation, and the impact of structural adjustment programs), and a prediction of future emigration dynamics. It is concluded that refugee flows remain a major factor in eastern African countries but the development of human resources in the northern portion of the region indicates development of potential labor migration from this area. Data constraints have limited measurement of emigration in this region and may contribute to the seeming indifference of most eastern African countries to emigration policies. Emigration in this region has been triggered by deteriorating economic and political conditions and is expected to increase.     

United Kingdom labour emigration and capital exports 1816-1991

"This paper is concerned primarily with examining the nature of linkages between capital and labour emigration from the U.K. We also consider whether the primary impulses for emigration were push or pull influences--the main intent is to look at the relation between the flows rather than the determinants of either. The nature of the capital-labour link is examined qualitatively using historical argument and quantitatively using statistical tests and causality analysis. The starting time for analysis is the end of the Napoleonic Wars when useful data became available." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Brain Drain Losses – A Case Study of Serbia

The focus of this paper is on an attempt to quantify economic losses due to ongoing and vast brain drain emigration from Serbia. We claim that socio‐economic losses in terms of implicit and explicit costs related to upbringing and education of emigrants as well as lost production are paramount. Therefore, the main argument is in line with pessimistic stances on migration and its effect on Serbian development. Massive emigration, especially of educated individuals, results in a great number of incalculable deficits for the country, which cannot be expressed and measured in monetary terms only. The authors argue that these are even more striking when viewed from a holistic perspective factoring in demographic, social, political, cultural and intellectual impacts. It is also shown how emigration of the highly educated greatly undermines local democracy and social cohesion in Serbia. Nevertheless, the authors also take note of contemporary transnational perspectives on migration and development and present possible policies aimed at exploiting advantages of human capital and social networks of migrants and diaspora, circular mobility and returns.     

Emigration dynamics in Bangladesh

This study of emigration dynamics opens by noting that emigration is one of the most dynamic economic and social elements in Bangladesh. The history of emigration from Bangladesh is sketched, and the level and trend of emigration is described for various destinations (especially the UK, the Middle East and North Africa, and Japan) and in terms of the socioeconomic background of migrants, channels of migration, occupations, the potential level of emigration, and applications for US Visas. The next section of the report presents the economic and demographic setting in terms of the gross national and domestic products, quality of life, the size and distribution of the population, the labor force, literacy, unemployment and underemployment, urbanization, internal migration, poverty, and income distribution. The discussion then centers on the sociopolitical setting and such factors as unmet basic human needs, the demand for expatriate workers, and emigration policy. It is concluded that the desperate economic situation in Bangladesh has combined with the demand for expatriate workers and the development of institutions to facilitate emigration. The result is increasing interest in emigration, which is fueled by mass communication highlighting the differences between the quality of life in Bangladesh and abroad.     

Long-term immigration to the United States: new approaches to measurement

"The United Nations has recommended the measurement of types of international migration using demographic criteria, including length of stay and purpose of travel. Information systems at the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) have the potential to provide a basis for documenting these demographic characteristics, in particular, length of stay of temporary migrants to the United States. This article analyzes these characteristics of selected categories of nonimmigrant aliens. The results of the analysis are used to produce series of estimates of alien immigration that conform more closely to the U.N. recommended definitions and better represent demographic concepts of long-term immigration. A strategy for measuring emigration of aliens from the United States using INS information systems is also described."     

The elderly of Hispanic origin: population characteristics for 1980

Recent demographic trends among the elderly Hispanic-origin population in the United States are analyzed by major subgroup, including Mexican, Puerto Rican, and Cuban. Data are from a variety of official sources, including the 1980 census. The author suggests that many of the observed variations in socioeconomic and health-related factors are due primarily to the minority status of such groups rather than to cultural differences.     

Decision to Emigrate amongst the Youth in Lebanon

This article studies the determinants of youth emigration decisions, which is considered one of the main causes of ‘Brain Drain’ in Arab Mediterranean Countries (AMCs). We focus on the case of Lebanon using a unique dataset covering young people aged 15 to 29 from the year 2016. The aim of the article is to identify the profile of youth's propensity to emigrate from Lebanon. The empirical results indicate that youth from non‐wealthy backgrounds living in smaller dwellings have a higher propensity to emigrate. It is also found that being male and unemployed has a positive effect on migration. Moreover, university education promotes the willingness to emigrate; while residents of poor regions are more likely to express such willingness. Finally, the article provides some insights for policymakers.     

Managing international migration in developing countries

IOM's research project on emigration dynamics in developing countries, launched in 1993, brought together teams of researchers in four regions of the developing world: Sub-Saharan Africa; South Asia; the Arab region; and Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. The article reports the findings of team members as reported to, and discussed by, 180 participants, including those from 57 governments, at IOM's twelfth Migration Seminar held in Geneva during April 1997.
The research had been carried out under a common conceptual framework which addressed emigration dynamics through changing economic, demographic, political and ecological circumstances in each country or subregion; the role of networks already established between persons in sending and receiving countries; and the nature of entry restrictions imposed by receiving countries.
A central objective of the research was to try and measure interaction between the variables in specific country and subregional situations and, as far as possible, provide results that could assist policy makers in both developing and developed countries. This objective had been facilitated by workshops held in each region during 1995–96 comprising researchers, officials and policy makers.
Although economic, demographic, political and ecological circumstances varied considerably between countries in the four regions, conference delegates agreed that the approach adopted by the researchers, including contact with officials and policy makers, had provided new insights into the emigration dynamics process.
Recommendations made during conference discussions included the need to establish an effective system of migration information exchange between and across regions; that on the basis of results achieved so far research on emigration dynamics should be continued and broadened; and that there should be sustained dialogue between policy makers, officials, researchers and NGOs.     

Violence,Networks, and International Migration from Colombia

Although Colombia is a major country of emigration, little is known about its citizens' motivations for migration. Social and economic conditions have been studied as determinants of migration, but violence has received less attention. We examine how social networks and violence function to promote emigration from Colombia by linking event‐history data from the Latin American Migration Project to external data on violence and economic conditions. We show that emigration is more likely to be initiated by those with higher education, those with network connections to migrants, and during periods of greater violence and increased police presence. Although violence acts powerfully to determine when people migrate, the geographic distribution of social capital determines where they go. Not surprisingly, migrants go to locations where people in their social networks are currently living or have been earlier.     

International migrations in Europe: Polish perspectives for the 1990s

"This article presents estimates of the size of emigration from Poland during the 1980s as well as projections concerning the migration patterns in the 1990s. The author anticipates a contraction of the volume of population outflow by some 50 percent: from about 100,000 to about 50,000 per year, on the average. These projections are based upon the examination of the role of a number of incentives and barriers to migration, including economic, demographic and political factors. In the final section, prospects concerning immigration to Poland are briefly discussed."     

Quod vadis? The effect of youth unemployment and demographic pressure on migration in the MENA region

Recent trends in international migration reveal increasing migration outflows from Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries. This development is accompanied by a massive rise in youth unemployment and a major increase in the young population in this region. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of migration patterns and analyses the interacting effect of the unfavourable combination of youth unemployment and demographic pressure on migration decisions. Based on an assessment of bilateral migration flows from 19 MENA to 34 OECD countries between 1995 and 2020, we find that youth unemployment plays a significant role in explaining emigration flows from MENA countries. We also find that the migration-generating effect of youth unemployment is contingent upon demographic pressure in the youth cohorts and increases with an increasing number of youths.     

Cuba's exiles: portrait of a refugee migration

"This article provides a portrait of Cuba's exiles [in the United States] that encompasses all their waves of migration, while utilizing the Cuban exodus to shed light on the broader phenomenon of refugee migration. It argues that to understand the changing social characteristics of the exiles over twenty years of migration, we need to understand the changing phases of the Cuban revolution. Utilizing the Cuban exodus as data, the article uses Egon F. Kunz's...theoretical framework for refugee migration to shed light on the refugees' varying experiences, while also using the actual Cuban refugee experience to react to Kunz's abstract model."     

To stay or to return? Return migration intentions of Moroccans in Italy

Using data from the Statistics on Income and living conditions of families with migrants carried out by ISTAT in 2009, we empirically examine the effect of micro level determinants on Moroccans’ return migration intentions. Although Moroccans living in Italy do not have a clear aspiration to return, the socio‐economic and work conditions in Italy determine their migration intentions. Furthermore, our research led us to argue that macro‐level determinants should also be considered. In particular, emigration, immigration and integration policies represent key elements in the analysis of the dilemma between to stay or to return. Therefore, the promotion of long‐term immigration policies, which allow the achievement of a permanent residence in the host country, combined with institutional reforms, which make the origin country socially, economically and politically more attractive for migrants are essential to complete the debate about to stay or to return.