Attitude to family planning in an Aurangabad slum

The impact of efforts by the Medical College Hospital and the Regional Family Planning Training Centre in Aurangabad, India, to popularize family planning in the city's slum areas was assessed through a KAP survey conducted by medical interns, social workers, and other hospital staff. In all, 237 couples were surveyed. Of these, 156 were Nav Buddhas, 53 were Hindus, 17 were Christians and 11 were Muslims. When asked if they were aware of birth control, 108 replied in the affirmative (the "Aware" group) and 129 were ignorant (the "Unaware" group). Only 21 from the "Aware" group were practicing a family planning method. Of the 21 acceptors, there were 15 vasectomies, 3 tubectomies, and in 3 cases, use of the condom by the husband. The most common reason for failure to practice contraception was the desire for more children, although many felt that contraception was unnecessary or they had neglected to think about family limitation. It is important that only 33 out of 237 (14%) recognized the widely publicized symbol for family planning (inverted red triangle); and the proportion of contraception acceptors in this group was significantly more than among those who failed to recognize the symbol. Survey findings indicated that efforts to reach the population in the ever-increasing slums in urban areas must be intensified.     

Natural family planning in Mauritius,Indian Ocean: utilization patterns and continuance predictors

Factors associated with discontinuation from an island-wide natural family planning program in Mauritius were examined in 2 stratified random samples of 300 (1976) and 350 (1980) acceptors. The data were gathered through records, educator observations, and field interviews with the 1980 sample. Comparison between those served by the Action Familiale program and characteristics of the Mauritius population as a whole suggests that the natural family planning program serves a somewhat better educated group of couples who have more employment security and smaller families than the general population. Acceptors selected the natural family planning method for reasons such as a desire to have a child according to a plan or to space children (29%), avoidance of the side effects of artificial contraception (21%), or as a result of a recommendation by a friend, relative, or professional (25%). 74% of acceptors in the 1980 sample expressed satisfaction with the method and indicated that their spouse shared this satisfaction. After 3.5-4.5 years of follow-up, 57% of acceptors in the 1976 sample had discontinued use of natural family planning. 9 variables in 4 categories--Administrative, Psychological-Motivational, Educator-Acceptor Relationship, and Family--were predictive of discontinuation. The major factors differentiating discontinuers from continuers were: 1) discontinuers had previously registered at Action Familiale and dropped out; 2) discontinuers placed more emphasis on spacing than on preventing pregnancies; 3) discontinuers discussed fewer topics with their educators; 4) discontinuers and their husbands seemed less interested in the natural method; 5) discontinuers had less family support for natural family planning; 6) educators experienced greater difficulty in teaching discontinuers; 7) discontinuers demonstrated less understanding of the symptothermal method; and 8) educators made fewer preregistration visits to the homes of discontinuers.     

Hindu-Muslim differential fertility: how much religious and how much socio?

Data from the Bangladesh Fertility Survey (BFS) of 1975 were used to test the hypotheses that the higher the socioeconomic status, the lower the fertility and the narrower the difference in fertility between Muslims and Hindus; and the lower the socioeconomic status, the higher the fertility and the greater the difference in fertility between Muslims and Hindus. The core group for analysis in this study of women married only once and reported to fecund includes 3914 Muslims and 824 Hindus. Actual analysis was based on fewer than these 4738 because of nonresponse to 1 or more pertinent interview questions used in this study. Multiple classification analysis (MCA) was used to analyze the data. Prior to adjustment for the effect of other variables, the fertility of Muslims was a little lower than that of Hindus. The average number of children born to Muslims was 3.89; it was 3.95 for Hindus. Fertility tended to decline with improvement in socioeconomic status, i.e., increase in the level of education, i.e., no formal and primary level, and this almost converged at the middle and higher educational levels. At the lower levels of education, i.e., no formal and 1-5 grades, Muslims had .19-.34 children more than Hindus. This difference was reduced to .07 children at the middle level education, i.e., 6-9 grades. At the higher level of education, Muslims had .09 fewer children than Hindus, and this difference was statistically significant. Prior to adjustment for the effect of other variables, the fertility of Muslims was higher than that of Hindus at almost every level of age at marriage. This picture was reversed when adjustment was made for the effect of other variables. At the lower levels of age at marriage, Muslims has .23-.20 more children than Hindus. At the middle age at marriage, Muslims had .08 fewer children than Hindus. This difference was statistically significant. There was virtually no difference between the 2 groups at the higher age at marriage, i.e., 20-21 years. The effect of urbanization on fertility by education differed for Hindus and Muslims. For Hindus, fertility at each level of education was higher in urban than in rural areas. For Muslims, fertility at each level of education, particularly at higher levels, was lower in urban than in rural areas. No significant difference was found in the use of contraception between Muslims and Hindus at higher levels of education, but at lower levels of education contraceptive use among Hindus was significantly higher than for Muslims. The findings suggest that with an improvement in education, fertility will decline with a corresponding increase in the use of contraception and the difference in fertility and use of contraception between Muslims and Hindus will disappear. The findings also support the tenet that development, especially education, is the best formula for reducing fertility in poor countries.     

集合种群与城市贫民窟研究

集合种群是空间生态学的一个重要研究对象,集合种群理论是上个世纪下半叶兴起的一门重要的生态学理论。本文认为该理论对于研究城市贫民窟问题具有十分积极的指导意义,并对将集合种群研究方法用于城市贫民窟调查进行了初步探讨。本文利用北京市2006年所列的1978年到2005年的人口数据,将外来常住人口数量与常住人口数量的比值作为p值的近似值,采用Levins模型进行了拟合。拟合的结果显示了这种近似计算的合理性,同时还得到了侵占参数m和灭绝参数e,这样,就可以利用Levins模型对城市贫民窟居民的扩张进行分析、预测,因而这项研究具有现实意义。另外,本文还提供了在城市贫民窟研究中集合种群水平上的似Allee效应a的一种计算方法。     

Thailand's reproductive revolution

Thailand has achieved a remarkable population revolution in the past 15 years, resulting in a fertility decline of 44%, the 3rd greatest decline of the major developing countries. Thailand is quite distinct from either China or South Korea, the leaders in fertility decline. It has neither China's authoritarian power system to enforce population control nor the highly developed, Westernized outlook of South Korea. Instead it achieved its astounding fertility drop through a noncoercive family planning program operating within a context of rapid social change and a cultural setting. Thailand's drop in population growth has touched almost all segments of Thai society. The preferred number of children among couples married less than 5 years has dropped in both rural and urban families at almost exactly the same rate, from about 3.2 in 1969 to 2.3 in 1984. Religious groups represent the only substantial difference in family size preference; Moslem women married less than 5 years stated a desired average of 3.1 children versus 2.3 for Buddhist women. The direct case of the fertility drop is a national increase in contraceptive use. In 1984, 65% of Thai women reported using contraception. The Thai population, however, was ripe for using contraception when it became available due to 1) mass media creating a desire for consumer goods, 2) the increased costs of education to parents, 3) the willingness of parents to trade off "parent repayment" from many children for a few quality children, 4) couples' autonomy in fertility decision making, 5) the high status of women in Thailand, and 6) the fact that Buddhism poses no barriers to contraception. Current trends show no immediate sign of change.     

Generation of Knowledge for Reproductive Health Technologies: Constraints on Social and Behavioral Research

Advances in new reproductive health technologies have surfaced an array of social and behavioral issues regarding decision-making and use of these technologies, underscoring the need for research on such topics as reproductive health decision-making, sexual practices, and norms and values for childbearing and family formation. Using topical microbicides as an example of a new method to prevent Sexually Transmitted infections (STIs), Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and/or pregnancy, we focus on gaps in information to inform reproductive health decision-making, noting in particular the discrepancies between data on clinical efficacy and typical use-effectiveness. Constraints on government and private sector support for research, particularly research on aspects of sexual behavior, contribute to problems with the availability of information for decision-making about use of reproductive health technologies .     

Evaluation of Fertility Levels and Adjustment of Fertility Policy: Based on the Current Situation of the Chinese Mainland’s Provincial Fertility Levels

During the 11^th Five-year Plan (2006-2010), the total fertility rate of the mainland of China was 1.481 and was stable with a slight decline, exhibiting a spatial pattern of moderately low fertility in the central and western regions, very low fertility in the east and extremely low fertility in the northeast. Except for a rebound in a few provinces and regions with extremely low fertility rates, the ratio of actual fertility rates to policy fertility rates is still falling. The reduced fertility rate is mainly driven by development, notably the proportion of the total population represented by the exuberantly fertile women of child-bearing age and their greater urbanization, growing level of non-agricultural employment and outflow from rural areas, as well as the assimilative effect of urban production, lifestyles and cultural concepts upon the agricultural population. Development has catalyzed an irreversible trend of declining fertility; existing fertility policy has proven insufficient to keep fertility rates stable at reasonably low levels. Policy-based rebounds may emerge in urban areas and the east and northeast, where family planning policy has been better implemented; on the other hand, a non-policy-based rebound may have been released. In the central and western rural areas, multiple births occur on average among only 4.12 percent of the younger generation of women. As fertility policy is adjusted and improved, fertility rebounds in transitional fertility policy adjustment can be effectively regulated through a gradual strategy which will not provoke a sharp rebound. The time is ripe for China to conduct a nationally unified adjustment of the existing fertility policy.     

Evaluation of Fertility Levels and Adjustment of Fertility Policy： Based on the Current Situation of the Chinese Mainland＇s Provincial Fertility Levels

“十一五”期间我国大陆的总和生育率为1．481,呈稳中有降态势,形成了“中、西部中度低水平,东部深度低水平,东北极度低水平”的空间格局。除少数极低生育率省区回升外,实际生育率及其与政策生育率的比值仍在下降。生育率下降的主要推动力是发展,突出表现为生育旺盛期育龄妇女比总人口和育龄妇女的城镇化、非农化水平高、人口外出流动比例大,以及城镇生产、生活方式和文化观念对农业人口的同化作用。发展促使生育率下降的趋势已不可逆转。现行生育政策难以使生育率稳定在合理的低水平。有可能引起政策性反弹的重点在计划生育基础较好的城镇和东部及东北地区;有可能引起非政策性反弹的势能,已基本释放;中、西部农村年轻一代妇女多胎生育平均只有4．12％。生育政策调整完善中的生育率反弹可通过渐进式策略实施有效调控,不会引起生育率大幅强烈反弹。我国生育政策全国统一调整时机已成熟。     

On changes in the age composition of the population and policy options for population planning

This analysis, based on 1978 data from official household registers, suggests that the 1983-2000 period will be critical for China's efforts to control population growth. If declines in the fertility rate are maintained, the possibility of stabilizing China's population at 800-900 million in the next century is feasible. If the population is to be kept under 1.2 billion by the year 2000, the general fertility rate must be lowered to 1.8 in 1985 and must decline 0.1 each 5 years thereafter until it reaches 1.5 in the year 2000. Once population growth is brought under control, it will be necessary to address consequent increases in the median age of the population. Those over 65 years of age will comprise 7.1-7.8% of the population in the year 2000, depending on whether fertility rates are low or high. The medium projection includes a population of 1.211 billion in the year 2000, approaching the peak value but allowing the fertility rate to rise slowly to guard against excessive aging of the population. The proportion of those over 65 years of age reaches a peak value of 20.2% in the year 2040. Overall, these projections suggest a "golden age" continuing until about 2020 in which the proportion of those both over 65 years and under 15 years will be rather low. The dependency ratio should begin to climb after 2020, reaching a peak in 2040 and stabilizing by 2070 at a level slightly higher than that existing today in developed countries. Since a rational age composition and a suitable decrease in the proportion of dependents are essential for economic growth, future analyses should focus on the quality of the population and not just population size. As long as birth rates continue to fall, the proportion of the dependent population will also fall and have a beneficial effect on China's economic development.     

Estimates of fertility in Bangladesh

The attempt is made to estimate fertility levels in Bangladesh on the basis of data collected during the 1974 Census. In the 1st section attention is directed to providing an overall picture of the demographic situation in the country. Comparisons between the 1961 and 1974 data demonstrates that the 1974 Census data provide consistent results. Factors such as the degree of urbanization, literacy and economic participation rates--considered as indicators of development--all seem to show little progress during the intercensal period. The use of child/women ratios (CWRs) provides plausible evidence of the likelihood of a fertility decline. A decline in CWR values is small for "all areas" but a marked decline can be noted for "urban areas." The recorded mean number of children is less in 1974 than in 1961 for women under age 35 whereas for the older groups the 1974 Census shows higher mean numbers. The Bangladesh Fertility Survey (BFS) data result for the total fertility rate of 6.58 is very close to that estimated for the 1974 Census--6.59. The reverse survival method also indicates that birthrates have been lower during the 1969-1974 period.     

Are rural–urban migrants living in urban slums more vulnerable in terms of housing,health knowledge,smoking, mental health and general health?

The magnitude of rural–urban migration in Bangladesh is increasing. Rapid urbanisation and a growing number of slums (dominated by migrants) pose many challenges to health. To our knowledge, studies regarding internal migration and health are scarce and results are mixed. Therefore, we compared several aspects, namely: housing, health knowledge, smoking, mental and general health, for three groups of migrants, designated urban natives/urban to urban migrants (UN/UU), rural to urban migrants (RU) and rural natives/rural to rural migrants (RN/RR). Results based on a sample of 5,136 adults indicated that the majority of respondents were less than 50 years old, female, married and uneducated. The percentages of UN/UU, RU and RN/RR migrants were 9.6, 69.2 and 21.3, respectively. As both bivariable and multivariable analyses indicated greater vulnerability among RU migrants in terms of the above‐mentioned aspects, this particular group deserves more attention from policy‐makers and other stakeholders. Some implications are also discussed. Key Practitioner Message: ● This study provides information regarding internal migration and explains push–pull factors in Bangladesh; ● It provides evidence regarding greater vulnerability in terms of health and other determinants among rural–urban migrants living in Dhaka slums; ● Lastly, the study justifies the importance of intervention strategies targeting poor migrants in urban slums in developing countries.     

Population,environment and sustainable development

The present population of Sri Lanka (17.7 million) is sufficient to create concern about the use, limitations, and waste of natural resources. Between 1871 and 1946, the population grew at an average rate of 1.4% annually, with high fertility and mortality. The population doubled between 1946 and 1981, and mortality declined. Between 1971 and 1991, the rate of growth declined due to a decrease in fertility and an increase in emigration. With a growth rate of 1.4%, the population will again double to 35 million by 2040. Technological improvements in Sri Lanka have led to an eight-fold increase in metric tons of rice production, but the growth in population has caused a deficiency in output so that basic per capita caloric requirements are not being met. Increased productivity has almost depleted the area available for cultivation, and the use of fertilizers to increase yields has environmental drawbacks. The high fertility of the 1970s contributed to increased labor force participation rates of 2.2%, which resulted in more people joining the labor force than leaving. Thus, the employment market has been unable to absorb the unemployed or potential new workers. Growth of the employment market may also conflict with environmental protection, as exemplified by the mining of the coral reef on the southwestern coast. The conversion of forests to agriculture resulted in forest losses of about 42,000 hectares per year during 1956-83. Deforestation is also occurring in the high forests due to increased pressure for fuelwood. In the wet zone, the use of forests for fuelwood is declining, but rubber wood is being harvested for industrial production. In order to slow population growth to replacement levels by the year 2000 (with a total population of 25 million), contraceptive prevalence must be increased to 72% at a cost of about $25 million.     

Changes in the Chinese Population’s Fertility Intentions: 1980-2011

On the basis of the findings of 227 surveys of Chinese fertility intentions over the years 1980-2011, this paper investigates the longitudinal changes in fertility intentions through cross-temporal meta-analysis. It is found that the ideal number of children for the Chinese trended downwards from 1980, but since 2000 the average number has remained basically stable at 1.6 to 1.8. In the 1980s, people’s fertility levels were higher than their fertility intentions. With economic and educational progress in China, both fertility levels and fertility intentions showed a downward trend, with the former declining faster than the latter. Since 1990, people’s fertility levels have been lower than their fertility intentions; that is, their actual number of children has been less than their ideal number. This provides an empirical basis for examining the changes in China’s fertility intentions and fertility levels.     

Determinants of fertility: Results from a 1989 rural household survey in China

The relationship between family planning, socioeconomic conditions, and fertility was investigated in six rural villages of China. Data from a 1989 random household survey were used to test the hypothesis relating fertility (number of children born) to family planning policy (policy impact and free contraceptive provision) and socioeconomic conditions (education and income). The fertility behavior of two cohorts (the first refers to those married before 1969 and the second those between 1978 and 1980) was compared to examine the impact of strict family planning policy on fertility. The average number of children born was significantly fewer in the second cohort than the first cohort (1.6 versus 4.2) during the ten year span after marriage. The regression results indicate that family planning policy measures and female education have both direct and indirect (through influence on age at first marriage and contraceptive use) significant impact on fertility.     

The consequences of adolescent parenthood on men's depression,parental satisfaction,and fertility in adulthood

This study examines some social and emotional consequences of fathering a child during adolescence in the US. Data are obtained from the 1987/88 US National Survey of Families and Households among 13,017 individuals aged 19 years and older and under age 19 if currently married. This study's sample included only men who reported fathering a child before their 30th birthday and were aged 18-40 years at the time of the interview. There were 227 men who fathered a child before the age of 20 years (Fathered as Teen--FAT) and 1032 men who fathered a child between their 20th and 30th birthday (Fathered as Adult--FAA). Outcome measures include depression (Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression scale (CES-D) and parental satisfaction. Control variables are race, age, number of children, and socioeconomic status. Fertility is a control and a dependent variable. The FAT group had a smaller percentage of marriages, a greater percentage of never married, and a greater percentage of second and third marriages. 32% of the FAT group and only 17% of the FAA group were Blacks. 57% of the FAT group and 72% of the FAA were Whites. The evidence from multiple regression analysis using ordinary least squares techniques supports the hypothesis that adolescent fathers, like adolescent mothers, experience similar long-term outcomes of greater depression and fertility compared to men who become parents "on-time" during their 20s. Limitations to the study are the lack of control for the degree of contact with first-born children, educational status, and standardized measures with group norms. The authors furthermore caution that the study sample may not be representative of men who fathered as adolescents and does not consider mediating factors such as social supports during adulthood. However, the finding that adolescent men and women are more subject to depression regardless of socioeconomic status, race, fertility, or age warrants appropriate intervention strategies.     

The Ovulation Method of Contraception

The ovulation method of contraception is based on an interpretation of the patient's vaginal mucus discharge. The only major trial of it shows a failure rate of at least 25.4 pregnancies per 100 woman years: from these figures about 25 per cent of women using it in any one year would become pregnant. Despite this failure rate, the ovulation method continues to receive considerable government support.     

告别棚户 圆百姓安居梦

2005年起,辽宁在全国率先开展大规模的棚户区改造工作,7年来累计改善了70.6万户、211万棚户区居民的居住条件。一些专家学者认为,辽宁改造棚户区的成功经验对全球贫民窟问题的解决、对应对中国城市化的挑战、对全国棚户区改造的推进,均具有重要的实践和理论意义。     

Projecting Australia's Fertility

A method has been evolved for projecting Australia's fertility which takes into account changes in family size. Total fertility is expected to fall by about 2 per cent a year. The total number of births is likely to increase to about 285,000 in 1981 and remain at that level to the end of the century.     

Do we need a theory of demographic transition?

The process of transition in which a population's rate of natural increase changes from low to high to low is familiar yet a widely accepted theory has not been produced. This paper shows that the search for a general transition theory is ill-advised. This theory would contain laws that can be used: 1) in explaining changes in population growth rates in today's slow-growing populations, 2) in predictions of current and future changes in today's rapidly-growing populations, and 3) in formulating population control policies where fertility levels are high. The search for a general theory which can explain, predict, and control demographic transition is premised on the assumption that 1 entity, called demographic transition, is the object of these 3 uses. The attempt to encompass these 3 uses by a single theory has made each more difficult than it might otherwise be and has contributed to a serious schism within population studies between medical and behavioral approaches. Some ways in which future work on demographic transition can be made more productive are: 1) the formulation of population control policies for less developed countries, the prediction of population changes in those countries, and the explanation of historical trends, which are better treated as separate tasks; 2) elements of medical and behavioral approaches require reintegration; 3) mortality decline appears to be only a highly indirect source of fertility decline; 4) neither development, modernization, nor urbanization appear to be theoretically significant sources of fertility decline; and 5) neither crude birthrates nor fertility levels appear to be theoretically significant dependent variables.     

Merging Incomplete Tertiary Datasets: The Case of 2-1-1 Information and Referral Missing Data

This study proposes a method to handle missing data when merging large tertiary datasets. Combining 25 datasets of 2-1-1 Texas Information & Referral Network’s call records to analyze unmet needs during Hurricanes Katrina and Rita highlighted a considerable bias problem due to missing data of a key variable in some of the 25 datasets. First, extensive literature about existing techniques for handling missing data was reviewed but determined not applicable for this type of missing data problem. Next, a systematic algorithm was developed to calculate missing data types and strategies in tertiary datasets. Last, this method was applied to the 2-1-1 datasets to test its effectiveness on bias due to previous missing data. Using this approach, the volume of cases available for analysis was increased approximately 30 percent, hence greatly improving validity of the findings. In terms of social service research, minimizing bias of missing data in existing tertiary data resources would help policymakers make more appropriate decisions and provide more effective and timely social support and disaster services to residents. This new method could be applied to using tertiary data with a similar dilemma and contribute to increasing potential use of available public datasets.